Well, the Super Bowl has come and gone, and the Los Angeles Rams have taken home the Lombardi Trophy after a dramatic come from behind victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. While many of you out there are still recovering from the epic Big Game and are lamenting the fact that football is gone for the next 5 months, I love that the NFL is out of the picture, as that means college basketball can now take center stage! No disrespect to the NFL, as I love me some football, but for me, the greatest event in sports is March Madness, and football ending just means that we are that much closer to March!
Big Monday in AFH ?
? Kansas vs Oklahoma State
? Allen Fieldhouse
⏰ 8 pm CT
? ESPN pic.twitter.com/c102DiuuEp
— Kansas Men’s Basketball (@KUHoops) February 14, 2022
Today we have a relativity small slate of games on tap for you, with 34 games set to be played, but there are several games that will have major NCAA tournament implications. Highlight games of the game include Oregon hosting Washington State, Oklahoma State at Kansas, and West Virginia at Kansas State.
It has been a wild week for NCAA Men’s College Basketball as nearly every team in the top-10 has picked up a recent loss, and that makes this stretch run that much more exciting. With that, let’s jump right into Monday’s version of everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Magic Parlay
Our money line magic parlay is a parlay that is made up of exclusively money line bets. Unlike point spread plays where a team has to win by a certain amount of points to win your bet, on a money line play, all your team has to do is win the game to get you paid. To make up for the fact that some teams are favorites and others are underdogs, you are going to either lay odds when betting on favorites or be paid out at odds for your bet if you take the underdog.
West Virginia Mountaineers at Kansas State Wildcats (-160)
The Big 12 is getting a lot more love than the ACC this year, as they are currently projected to get 7 teams into the NCAA tournament, and you could make a case that they could get as many as 8 or even 9 teams into the madness. The Mountaineers and Wildcats find themselves squarely on the bubble right now, as neither team has an elite record, but they do both have quality wins that any team would be proud to have.
K State went into Ames this weekend and knocked off the Iowa State Cyclones, and they have wins over Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and TCU as well. They play host to a West Virginia team that has fallen on hard times recently but does have wins over Iowa State, Oklahoma State, UAB, UCONN, and a home win over this very same Wildcats squad. Both of these teams can beat strong teams if they are at their best, so who wins tonight in Manhattan? I like the home team.
— K-State Men's Basketball (@KStateMBB) February 14, 2022
West Virginia is much better than their awful 3-8 Big 12 record might lead you to believe, but in a conference that is so loaded with good teams, the Mountaineers just haven’t been able to win many games. That is particularly true on the road, where Bob Huggin’s team is 0-6 in Big 12 play. Winning on the road in conference play is the hardest thing to do for every team, and the Mountaineers just haven’t shown me that they are up to that task. For that reason, I will take the Wildcats as small home court favorites.
Dayton Flyers (-130) at Rhode Island Rams
There is a battle going on at the top of the A-10 right now between Davidson, Dayton, VCU, and Saint Louis, and while I personally think this should be a 2 or 3 bid league, right now, Lunardi has just 1 team getting into the tournament from the A-10. Dayton wishes they could start their season over again, as early season losses to UMASS Lowell, Lipscomb, and Austin Peay are coming back to haunt them. Since that bad 1-3 start, the Flyers have looked the part of an NCAA tournament-level team with huge wins over Kansas, Miami, Belmont, and Virginia Tech in the non-conference and A-10 wins over Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure, and VCU.
While a win over Rhode Island won’t be one that will get them into the Big Dance, a loss would be damning to their chances of hearing their names called on Selection Sunday. The Rams saw themselves as a team that could compete at the top of the league coming into this season, and a month ago, when they were sitting at 12-4, that looked to be the case. But the Rams have seemingly run out of gas down the stretch, as they hit a rough patch that saw them lose 6 straight games, and they are no longer being looked at as a team that can win the A-10 or make the NCAA tournament.
— Dayton Basketball (@DaytonMBB) February 14, 2022
Rhode Island did beat Davidson in their last game, so they can play beat good teams if they play their best, but I see this game being a bit of a letdown for the Rams. Even at home, Rhode Island has bad losses to teams like George Washington, Richmond, and UMASS, and I think they will put up a heck of a fight tonight at home, but inevitably come up just short. Dayton is playing too well right now not to want to back them at this price; give me the Flyers.
Virginia Cavaliers at Virginia Tech Hokies (-190)
Right now, Joe Lunardi over at ESPN has 5 teams from the ACC getting into the NCAA tournament. But somewhat shockingly, neither of these teams are part of the group of teams that he has getting their dancing shoes. That means that this game is going to be a huge one for both programs, as both of these squads could use a quality victory. While I would tend to agree with Lunardi about leaving the Cavs out of the madness, I feel strongly that Virginia Tech should be in the field of 68.
The Hokies played a weak schedule in the non-conference, and they had a brutal start to league play, losing their first 4 games. But since then, they have won 7 of their last 10, and they are making a legit case that they are one of the teams to beat in the ACC. The biggest missing piece for V-Tech is the lack of signature wins, and they will have a chance to add one to their resume tonight against a streaking Virginia team.
??? ??????. #CommonwealthClash. Enough said ?
? Cassell Coliseum
— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) February 14, 2022
It is undeniably a down year for Tony Bennet at Virginia, but that doesn’t mean the Cavs are going to miss out on the tournament. Consistency has been a struggle for Virginia, but they are playing their best basketball of the year right now with a 6-2 record in their last 8 games that includes big wins over Duke and Miami.
When these teams played in Charlottesville earlier this year, the Cavs won the game by just 2-points. Now that the season series has moved to Blacksburg, I see the Hokies avenging that loss and defending their home floor in this one. The Hokies are 9-3 at home this season, and in their last 3 league home games, they have dominated, going 3-0 with an averaging margin of victory of 18 points per game. This one will be closer than that, but at the end of the day, I have the Hokies winning this game outright.
Money Line Magic Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Kansas State Wildcats -160
- Dayton Flyers -130
- Virginia Tech Hokies -190
$100 Bet Pays $439
Game Total Parlay
Game total plays are commonly referred to as over/under bets because you are betting over or under the posted point total for a game. The game total is calculated by adding up the final scores of both teams. If that total score adds up to more than the total, the over bets win. If the total score adds up to under that total, bets on the under win. If the total score lands exactly on the posted total, all bets push.
Virginia Cavaliers at Virginia Tech Hokies Over 118.5
We won’t go far for our next pick, as we will stay right here in Blacksburg for a totals play on the game between Virginia and Virginia Tech. The first time that these teams played, it was a painfully low scoring game, as Virginia imposed their will to play an extremely slow brand of basketball and managed to grind out a victory. But as you already saw above, I see the Hokies winning this game, and part of the reason why is because I expect Virginia Tech to force the Cavs to play faster, which gets them out of their comfort zone and should result in a higher scoring game.
This line opened up at 120 points, and the public quickly jumped on the under, dropping the line a point and a half. I mean, I get it, the first game finished at just 106 points, so the public wanting to be on the under makes sense. But even with as slow as both of these teams tend to play, it would be hard to expect another super low scoring game. The Hokies are scoring over 77 points per game on their current 5 game winning streak, and if they come anywhere near that many points tonight, this game will sail to the over. I am on the over tonight from Cassell Coliseum.
Duquesne Dukes at Davidson Wildcats Over 135
Kenpom has this game finishing at 141 points, which makes this line seems awfully low. Yeah, Davidson didn’t look great in their last game, a loss to Rhode Island where they scored just 65 points, but that game felt very fluky, and I think that Davidson gets right back on track tonight at home against Duquesne.
We'd LOVE to see you tonight.
GAMEDAY ? @DuqMBB
— Davidson Basketball (@DavidsonMBB) February 14, 2022
The Wildcats have a top-10 offense, in terms of efficiency, and they regularly score 70+ points. You can pencil the Wildcats in for a bunch of points tonight, as the Dukes are bad on defense, currently ranked 270th in defensive efficiency. A 6-point gap between the analytics and the betting line is a big one, and that is where I will find my value in a play on the over.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Southern Miss Golden Eagles Over 135.5
This is just a public line move fade. The line opened up at 140.5 points and plummeted down 5 full points. Kenpom had the game finishing at 142 points, suggesting that the opening line was already a bit low. That is a massive gap, and this is another case of the public getting it wrong and messing up a line. I will get on the other side of that action and take the over, and as long as Southern Miss can stay competitive on their home floor tonight with the more talented Hilltoppers, we have an easy win on our hands.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Virginia Cavaliers at Virginia Tech Hokies Over 118.5 -110
- Duquesne Dukes at Davidson Wildcats Over 135 -110
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Southern Miss Golden Eagles Over 135.5 -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
The daily dog parlay is a play where all we take are money line underdogs. Parlaying underdogs is the best way to rack up jumbo payouts on small upfront investments. Want to win a jackpot payout? Then parlaying underdogs is for you!
Saint Louis Billikens (+125) at St. Bonaventure Bonnies
The Saint Louis Billikens were cruising towards the A-10 regular season title, having reeled off 6 consecutive victories prior to a disappointing performance at home against the Bonnies of St. Bonaventure on Friday night. The Billikens will get a chance at revenge tonight as they get to play the Bonnies again in a quick turnaround, and I smell upset. It is very hard to beat a team twice in a season, and I think Saint Louis wins tonight on the road.
G A M E D A Y
— Saint Louis Men's Basketball (@SaintLouisMBB) February 14, 2022
In that loss on Friday night, Saint Louis leading scorer Gibson Jimerson had his worst shooting game of the year, going 2-9 from beyond the arc. Gibson is a high-volume shooter from deep and shoots at over 41%, and I expect him to be much better tonight. The Bonnies have been strong at home all year long, but they do have home losses to Northern Iowa and Davidson, so they can be beat. You can add Saint Louis to that list as the Billikens are going to do their best to wipe Friday’s ugly performance off of their resume with a big win tonight on the road.
Cleveland State Vikings at Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons (+115)
Home dogs are a personal favorite of mine, and we have been crushing them all season long, making a bunch of money along the way! I will take another home dog in this game between Purdue Fort Wayne and Cleveland State. Interestingly, this is the 3rd matchup this season between Purdue Fort Wayne and Cleveland State, with the Vikings taking the first 2 games, with both games coming at home. The Mastodons will get a chance to host the Vikings tonight, and I think that they pick up the win.
Purdue Fort Wayne has turned their lives around in the last several weeks, and they have been very tough to beat at home. The Mastodons have won 9 of their last 10 home games in league play, and while none of those teams are as talented as this Cleveland State team is, that is too much consistent winning not to love getting Purdue Fort Wayne as home dogs.
? Mastodons vs Cleveland State
⏰ 7 PM
? 1380 The Fan https://t.co/rfrRJMTGXh
? ESPN+ https://t.co/qV1BrUwDwt
? Mask required #FeelTheRumble #HLMBB pic.twitter.com/vXciVei1m3
— Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons Basketball (@MastodonMBB) February 14, 2022
It is very rare that we get 3 games between teams in the regular season, but we will see a lot of these 3rd matchups once conference tournament season rolls around. A couple of weeks from now, we are going to have a lot of 3rd matchups between teams, and you will see that I love taking teams that have lost the first 2 games in that 3rd matchup, as it is exceedingly hard to beat a team 3 times in one year. I will get ahead of that curve in this one and take Purdue Fort Wayne as home dogs, as they pick up the win over Cleveland State.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Saint Louis Billikens +125
- Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons +115
$100 Bet Pays $484
Point Spread Plays
In this final section, we are making plays on the point spread. A point spread bet is the most basic of all college hoops bets. In order to cash a bet on the point spread, your team must cover the number. Like a team as a big favorite? You might have to lay a bunch of points in order to win your bet. Think the underdog will lose, but keep the game close? Then snatching up the points is the side you’ll want to be on.
James Madison Dukes at Delaware Blue Hens (-5.5)
The Dukes of James Madison take their show on the road tonight as they head to Delaware for a game with the Blue Hens in CAA action. The Blue Hens haven’t played great in the last couple of weeks, but they did find a way to blow out James Madison on their own floor 2 weeks ago, beating the Dukes by 16 points. The 2nd matchup is generally more competitive than the 1st as both teams will have the ability to adjust, but that being said, there is plenty of room for the Dukes to tighten up this game and still not cover the spread.
Wrapping up the homestand!
— Delaware Men’s Basketball (@DelawareMBB) February 14, 2022
Delaware is undefeated against teams ranked outside the top-200 nationally, and that has me confident that they are going to win this game outright. The question is, will they cover this number? I think so, and I will tell you why.
In home games against teams ranked outside the top-200, the Blue Hens have wins over Northeastern, William and Mary, Lafayette, and UMBC, and all of those wins came by double-digit points. We might have to sweat this one early, but I see the Blue Hens pulling away late for the win and cover at home against an overmatched Duke’s team.
Tulsa Golden Hurricanes at UCF Knights (-7.5)
The Knights of UCF welcome the Golden Hurricanes of Tulsa to town tonight in a game between a couple of disappointing AAC teams. I was high on UCF earlier this year, and their wins over Michigan and Memphis are looking better and better as both the Tigers and Wolverines heat up, but the Knights just haven’t been able to win consistently enough to be a legit at-large bid contender. But at home, the Knights have been hard to beat.
GAMEDAY in The Kingdom ?⚔
— UCF Men’s Hoops (@UCF_MBB) February 14, 2022
UCF is 10-3 at home, and I see them blowing out Tulsa tonight, as the Golden Eagles are an embarrassing 0-7 in true road games this season. Not only has Tulsa lost all of their road games, but they haven’t even been competitive in most of those games. They lost to Temple by 9, Wichita by 10, Tulane by 34, and Cincinnati by 21. The Knights are going to win this game, and they just might blow it out. I will lay a little wood and back the home team.
Washington State Cougars (+5) at Oregon Ducks
Our final play of the day comes to us from the PAC-12, where Oregon hosts Washington State. Both of these teams are hard to nail down, as they both have overachieved at times but then followed that up with disappointment. The Ducks started their season out 6-6 and looked like a team that was going nowhere. But then they caught fire, winning 10 of 11, including big wins over USC and UCLA, and they were all of the sudden a team that was feared in the PAC-12. All of that goodwill came crashing down this weekend, though, as they lost at home to a bad Cal team.
That was a shocker, as Cal quite literally never wins on the road in league play, as they have averaged less than 2 road wins per season going back to 2018. Now Oregon has to play against Washington State at home, and they are bigger favorites than they should be, considering their home court issues this season. The Ducks have home losses to Cal, Colorado, Baylor, and Arizona State, and looking at their record, nearly all of their signature wins have come away from home.
Going for a third straight over the Ducks tonight in Eugene
— WSU Men's Basketball (@WSUCougarMBB) February 14, 2022
That bodes well for the Cougars, as they would love to add a win over the Ducks to their resume. WAZZU has a similar record, as they do most of their losing at home and have been great on the road. The Cougars are 5-1 in true road games with wins at Arizona State, Utah, Stanford, and Cal. When the Cougars do lose, it is never by a lot, as they have lost to EWU, USC, South Dakota State, New Mexico State, Colorado, Stanford, and Arizona State all by 5 points or fewer. WSU either wins, or they lose close, and I that has me loving a play on the Cougars getting +5-points.
Point Spread Plays Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Delaware Blue Hens (-5.5) -110
- UCF Knights (-7.5) -110
- Washington State Cougars (+5) -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on NCAA Men’s College Hoops can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s NCAA Men’s Basketball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free college hoops picks each and every day!