We finished out the month of February the same way that we started it, by hitting tickets and getting paid! Yesterday we connected on our all-money line 3-team parlay for a juicy $343 payout. That play came in with winners on North Carolina (-333), Hofstra (-230), and Baylor (-120). Interestingly enough, it was the biggest favorite on the card that gave us our most sweat, as North Carolina needed overtime to beat Syracuse at home, narrowly keeping their at-large bid chances alive with the win in what turned out to be a thriller of a game.
— Baylor Men’s Basketball (@BaylorMBB) March 1, 2022
We nearly picked up a double-dip yesterday, as we hit the first 2 legs of our point spread parlay, with winners on Fordham (-2) and Iowa (-10), but came up just short of the win, as Texas Tech won against Kansas State, but failed to cover as the Wildcats gave them all they could handle in Lubbock. Today, we get to celebrate the start of the greatest month of the year, March!
The madness has officially arrived, and in what seems to be the most wide-open year in recent memory, with at least a dozen teams with realistic chances of cutting down the nets at the Final Four, we are in store for a lot of excitement in the next several weeks of action. As always, we will be right here with you today, delivering max value, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Magic Parlay
Our money line magic parlay is a parlay that is made up of exclusively money line bets. Unlike point spread plays where a team has to win by a certain amount of points to win your bet, on a money line play, all your team has to do is win the game to get you paid. To make up for the fact that some teams are favorites and others are underdogs, you are going to either lay odds when betting on favorites or be paid out at odds for your bet if you take the underdog.
West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma Sooners (-208)
The Big 12 is either the best conference in the country or a close 2nd place, and the West Virginia Mountaineers are a great example of just how brutal life in the Big 12 can be. West Virginia came out of the gates red-hot with a 13-2 record that included top-100 victories over Clemson, UCONN, UAB, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers were ranked in the top-25 of the AP poll and seemed to be locks to be dancing in March.
But once the Mountaineers got deep into Big 12 play, the wheels fell off, as West Virginia has lost 13 of their last 14 games, and they have gone from tournament lock to a team that would need to win the Big 12 tournament to make the NCAA tournament. None of those losses were bad ones, as the worst team that West Virginia has lost to on this streak is 56th ranked Kansas State, but there are no easy wins in the Big 12, and the Mountaineers just haven’t been able to hang. Things continue to be tough for West Virginia today as they head to Norman, Oklahoma, for a road game against the Sooners.
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— Oklahoma Basketball (@OU_MBBall) March 1, 2022
Oklahoma has struggled in league play as well, but the Sooners have done enough to play themselves onto the bubble, making this game today a huge one if they want to hear their names called on Selection Sunday. OU plays their best at home, as they have home wins over Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Florida. Beating a Bob Huggins coached team in March is never an easy task, but the Mountaineers just don’t have the talent that they need to compete this year.
When these teams first matched up this season in Morgantown, the Sooners won the game by double digits. Now that the season series has shifted to Norman, I would expect an even better performance out of the Sooners. We are going to have to sweat this one out until the last few possessions, but I have seen nothing from West Virginia in the last 2 months that gives me any compelling reason to think that they can win tonight on the road. Give me the Sooners as home court favorites tonight.
Missouri Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks (-295)
Are the South Carolina Gamecocks a team that is deserving of being in the conversation for an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament? Most experts will say no, but when you look at how the Gamecocks have played in the last month, they are doing everything that they can to change that, as they have played well, and their 8 wins in the SEC cannot be ignored.
We already talked about how the Big 12 is either the best league in the nation or 2nd best, and it is the SEC that is contending with the Big 12 for the rights to call themselves the best league in the land, and with a win tonight at home, the Gamecocks would have a winning record in league play. If a winning record in what might be the toughest conference in the country isn’t enough to get your name mentioned in the bubble conversation, I don’t know what is!
— The Cockpit (@SC_Cockpit) March 1, 2022
The Cocks have been tough to beat at home all season long with a 12-4 record in Columbia. When you look at the teams that have been able to win on the road against South Carolina, it has mostly been elite teams. USC has home losses to Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee, and even their home floor loss to Florida wasn’t a bad one as the Gators currently project out as an NCAA tournament team. South Carolina had won 5 in a row prior to losing their last game on the road at Alabama, and they must win tonight if they want a chance to play themselves into the madness.
I like the Gamecock’s chances of picking up a win tonight, as Missouri has really played poorly in SEC play. The Tigers have only 4 league wins this season, with 2 of those coming against Ole Miss and another coming over Texas A&M, and neither of those teams are sniffing the NCAA tournament right now. The Tigers had had several close calls where they lost in tightly contested games, so I don’t want to lay a bunch of points tonight, as this game could be a close one. But that being said, coming close to winning isn’t the same as winning, and I am backing the home team tonight from Colonial Life Arena.
Kansas Jayhawks (-250) at TCU Horned Frogs
This is an intriguing game, as both of these teams had hard to expect outcomes in their last game. In the Jayhawk’s last game, they went into Waco to play the Baylor Bears with a chance at locking up the regular season Big 12 title, but came up short after leading 16-4 to start the game. For TCU, the Horned Frogs picked up a massive home floor win over Texas Tech to vault themselves right back into the NCAA bubble picture.
The win was huge for the Horned Frog’s at-large bid dreams, as they had lost 4 of their previous 5 games prior to the upset over the Red Raiders, and a win tonight against Kansas would slide TCU firmly into the lock category for the Big Dance. But we have already talked about how the Big 12 is vicious, and when you see that the Frogs have to play back-to-back games against Kansas this week, with the Jayhawks in a position to win the Big 12 regular season title with the season sweep, I see TCU having a letdown game tonight at home.
Back to business
? Kansas at TCU
? Fort Worth, Texas
⏰ 7 pm CT
? Big 12 Now on ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/rCnvG6DBU0
— Kansas Men’s Basketball (@KUHoops) March 1, 2022
Kansas has won far too many Big 12 titles in the last couple of decades to think that they are going to blow a shot at another one against a team like TCU. No disrespect to the Horned Frogs, as I actually really like this team and feel that they deserve a bid no matter how these games with Kansas end up, but back-to-back games against KU is just going to be too much for TCU to handle.
Kansas hasn’t lost to a team ranked outside of the top-25 since November, and they aren’t going to start now with so much on the line. TCU will give it their all tonight at home, but when the smoke clears in Fort Worth, the Jayhawks are leaving Schollmaier Arena with a victory.
Money Line Magic Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Oklahoma Sooners -208
- South Carolina Gamecocks -295
- Kansas Jayhawks -250
$100 Bet Pays $278
Game Total Parlay
Game total plays are commonly referred to as over/under bets because you are betting over or under the posted point total for a game. The game total is calculated by adding up the final scores of both teams. If that total score adds up to more than the total, the over bets win. If the total score adds up to under that total, bets on the under win. If the total score lands exactly on the posted total, all bets push.
Dayton Flyers at Richmond Spiders Under 133
Dayton’s NCAA tournament resume took a nasty hit this weekend, as the Flyers lost on the road at La Salle. Not only did that loss hurt their shot at an at-large bid, it also likely cost them their shot at the A-10 regular season title, as they dropped to 3rd place, 2 games back of 1st place Davidson in the league standings. The Flyers have a shot at redemption today, though, as they can add a top-100 win over Richmond to their resume and keep their season alive.
— Dayton Basketball (@DaytonMBB) March 1, 2022
If the Flyers are going to win this game, it will be because their strong defense can shut down the Spider’s efficient offense. Dayton loves to slow the game down and force teams into half-court sets and make them work for every point. That will be their strategy tonight, and I see that leading to a lower scoring game.
Dayton regularly holds teams to under 60 points, and that is what I expect to happen tonight, as the Flyers know that their season is on the line. I will jump on the under is what is going to be a hard-fought grinder of a game where points are hard to come by for both teams.
Ohio Bobcats at Bowling Green Falcons Over 157
I almost never take the over when I see totals this high, as so many things have to go right for a game to go over a total like 157 points in a 40-minute basketball game. But almost never isn’t never, and I will jump on the over in this game between Ohio and Bowling Green. Ohio looked like the best team in the MAC all season long before losing 2 of their last 3 games, and they are now in a 3-way tie for 2nd place, with everyone chasing 1st place Toledo. There is a huge difference between winning the MAC title and finishing 4th, and I expect the Bobcat’s best efforts tonight at Bowling Green.
For Bowling Green, the Falcons have a rare combination of an exceptionally fast tempo and a terrible defense that has led to some eyepopping final scores. The Falcons play the 3rd fastest pace in the nation, and their defense is 340th in the country, which is an embarrassment for a team playing in a quality league like the MAC. They let teams run up and down on them all game long and they have gotten torched several times this season.
On the road again, tonight we take on the Falcons!
— Ohio Men’s Basketball (@OhioMBasketball) March 1, 2022
Bowling Green gave up 91 to Ball State, 112 to Buffalo, 94 to Miami (OH), 91 to Kent State, 91 to Akron, 99 to Buffalo, and 90 to Norfolk State. Teams find it easy to rack up the points on the Falcons, and when you see that Bowling Green has themselves eclipsed the century mark on multiple occasions this season, this feels like a game where both teams could threaten to score 100. It is a high total, but not high enough, and I am taking the over!
St. Bonaventure Bonnies at VCU Rams Under 133
I think VCU has done more than enough to get into the NCAA tournament as they have caught fire in the 2nd half of the season with a 10-1 record in their last 11 games. The Rams are getting the job done by playing white on rice defense, with VCU currently ranked as the 5th best defensive unit in the nation in terms of efficiency. They match up with an equally hot Bonnies team tonight, as St. Bonaventure has won 7 consecutive games entering play.
These teams played earlier this year at St. Bonaventure, and the Bonnies blew the Rams out 73-53. VCU gets their shot at revenge tonight in their house, and I think that they will get it. For the Rams to win this game, they are going to need to impose their will, slow this game down, and force the Bonnies into bad shots. That is what I see happening as the Rams are playing their best basketball of the season right now, and they aren’t going to let this game slip away. Kenpom has this game finishing at 129 points, and that feels just about right. Give me the under 133 tonight from Richmond.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Dayton Flyers at Richmond Spiders Under 133 -110
- Ohio Bobcats at Bowling Green Falcons Over 157 -110
- St. Bonaventure Bonnies at VCU Rams Under 133 -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
The daily dog parlay is a play where all we take are money line underdogs. Parlaying underdogs is the best way to rack up jumbo payouts on small upfront investments. Want to win a jackpot payout? Then parlaying underdogs is for you!
Toledo Rockets (+120) at Buffalo Bulls
We have focused a lot on the MAC already today, as the conference is quite a bit better than I think it is getting credit for, and with 4 teams still mathematically in the hunt for the regular season title as they hit the last week of play, it is setting up to be one of the more exciting conference title race finishes in the nation. This game is going to be the highlight of that race to the league title, as Toledo is sitting in 1st place, a game up on 3 teams all tied for 2nd, a group that includes Buffalo.
A win for the Rockets will eliminate the Bulls from the title chase and assure them at least a share of the MAC title. While Kent State and Ohio could technically still catch the Rockets from behind in the final game of the season, Toledo gets a home game against Bowling Green to wrap up the regular season that they just aren’t going to lose. For all intents and purposes, this game would be all that the Rockets need to win the regular season championship.
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— Toledo Men's Basketball (@toledo_mbb) March 1, 2022
With so much on the line for Toledo, I am a bit surprised to see them as underdogs. Don’t get me wrong, Buffalo is a solid team, and they are on fire right now as they have won 9 straight games, but the Rockets are going to be the more talented team on the floor tonight. A 9-game winning streak in league play is always going to be impressive, but when you see that 6 of those wins have come against teams ranked outside of the top-300, and their best win came over 248th ranked Ball State, the run is a bit underwhelming.
Toledo already beat Buffalo earlier this season by 11 points, and while I am sure this game is going to be more competitive now that the Bulls get to play the rematch at home, I can’t justify Buffalo being favored. Buffalo only has 1 win over a top-100 team this season, and that came all of the way back in November, against North Texas. They also have hard to understand losses to Canisius and Miami (OH) on their record. Kenpom has Toledo winning this game, and so do I. I absolutely love when I get to back a team as a dog when they should be favored, and that is what I will do in this one as the Rockets roll over Buffalo on the road.
Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores (-105)
Home dogs in league play are always my favorite types of bets, and I will take another one tonight in this game between the Gators and the Commodores. I am not a big fan of Vanderbilt, but they are decent at home, with wins over LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Georgia. But this play is more a fade of Florida than a backing of Vanderbilt. I hate to break it to you Gator fans, but your team is a fraud.
— Vanderbilt Men's Basketball (@VandyMBB) March 1, 2022
Florida played a soft schedule in the non-conference, and the majority of their wins have come against teams that aren’t going to be playing in the NCAA tournament. Florida has just 2 quad 1 wins this season, despite having lots of opportunities playing in the SEC.
On the road this season, Florida has lost to Oklahoma, Auburn, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Texas A&M. Sometimes you bet on a team in a matchup, and other times you are betting against a team. In this game, I am betting against Florida, as they stink. Give me the Commodores as home dogs tonight in an SEC showdown.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Toledo Rockets +120
- Vanderbilt Commodores -105
$100 Bet Pays $430
Point Spread Plays
In this final section, we are making plays on the point spread. A point spread bet is the most basic of all college hoops bets. In order to cash a bet on the point spread, your team must cover the number. Like a team as a big favorite? You might have to lay a bunch of points in order to win your bet. Think the underdog will lose, but keep the game close? Then snatching up the points is the side you’ll want to be on.
Providence Friars (+9.5) at Villanova Wildcats
In all of my years of handicapping men’s college hoops, I have never seen a power conference championship team that has been as disrespected as the Providence Friars have been this season. All of the other power conference’s regular season titles are still up for grabs, as the Big East is the only power league that is a done deal as we hit the final week of the regular season. Yet, despite the fact that PC ran away with the Big East title, nobody is talking about the Friars as a national title threat, and they are just now moving up in the AP poll standings, coming in at 8th this week.
— Providence MBB (@PCFriarsmbb) March 1, 2022
We see that hate again today, as the Friars are getting nearly double-digit points against Villanova. The haters will tell you that Providence has nothing to play for, as they already won the Big Eats title, but you could say the same thing about the Wildcats, as they too aren’t playing for much, as they can’t catch PC.
Both of these teams are playing for NCAA tournament seeding and should be motivated to win. To see this as such a giant line is shocking, and I will fade the public and their ample Friar’s hate and snatch up all of the points in what is sure to be a competitive contest between a couple of elite teams.
Purdue Boilermakers at Wisconsin Badgers (+3)
On a day that has a lot of really great games on the schedule, I think this one tops them all. I see both Purdue and Wisconsin as teams that could make it all of the way to the 3rd weekend of the madness, and this is a blockbuster game tonight in Madison. The Badgers broke through this week as they appeared in the top-10 for the 1st time this season, and when I look at their full body of work, I think that even 10th in the nation is a bit low, as this is a very, very good team.
Welcome to March. GAME DAY❕
If you’ll be at the Kohl Center:
1. ???? ????? Badger gear!
2. Show up ???? with ENERGY!!
3. Help us create a special night!!! pic.twitter.com/gwxm7KZZag
— Wear White Tonight! (@BadgerMBB) March 1, 2022
The Badgers have wins over elite teams like Houston, St. Mary’s, Purdue, Iowa, and Ohio State, and their 15 wins over the top-100 gives them one of the top resumes in the country. When the Badgers beat the Boilermakers at Purdue back in January, it was seen as a big upset. If and when they beat them tonight at home, I am not sure it is going to feel like an upset. When I see that all of the Boilermaker’s losses, besides the loss to Wisconsin, came on the road, I love a play on the home team getting a full position’s worth of points.
Arizona Wildcats at USC Trojans (+4.5)
Similar to Purdue, if you are going to beat the Arizona Wildcats, it is when they are away from home. All 3 of Arizona’s losses have come in true road games, with losses to Colorado, Tennessee, and UCLA. The Wildcats just might be the best team in the nation, coming in at number 2 in the latest AP poll, but this is a really tough spot for them tonight against a talented USC team.
Most people see the Trojans as a step behind UCLA and Arizona in the PAC-12, but if the Trojans can find a way to win this game tonight at home, they would be just a game back of Arizona going into the regular season finale this weekend. These teams played at Arizona less than a month ago, and while the final score might lead you to believe that the Wildcats dominated the game with a 9-point victory, that simply was not the case, as the Trojans led by 6-points with 6 minutes left to play in the game, before the Wildcats closed it out on a big run in the final minutes.
Welcome to March!
Let the Madness begin!! pic.twitter.com/BoEaD2Vyqj
— USC Men's Basketball (@USC_Hoops) March 1, 2022
The Trojans love that they get to host the Wildcats tonight, and they are going to have them on upset alert all night long. If I had to take a stand on the outright winner in this game, I would lean slightly towards the Wildcats, but they just went into Boulder in their last game and got spanked by Colorado, losing by 16 points to the Buffaloes, so they could absolutely lose this game. But luckily for us, we won’t need the outright upset, as we can back the home team getting +4.5-points, which feels far too high in what is going to be a very competitive game. Home dog in league play? Sign me up.
Point Spread Plays Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Providence Friars (+9.5) -110
- Wisconsin Badgers (+3) -110
- USC Trojans (+4.5) -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on NCAA Men’s College Hoops can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s NCAA Men’s Basketball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free college hoops picks each and every day!