While we did manage to connect on yet another parlay of the day winner yesterday, I am left feeling a bit unsatisfied this morning on how things worked out late last evening. We hit our all-totals parlay yesterday with winners on Dayton/Richmond under 133 and St. Bonaventure/VCU under 133, and a push on Ohio/Bowling Green over 157. With the 3rd leg pushing, it dropped down to a 2-teamer and paid out $365 bucks. Wins are wins, but that one felt like kissing my sister a little bit, as we were just one point away from a juicy $700 payout.
When you look at the rest of our action from yesterday, we had similar results, as we picked up more than our fair share of winners but just missed out on some major payouts. On our money line parlay, we nailed our picks on Oklahoma (-208) and South Carolina (-295), but the Kansas Jayhawks lost at TCU to cost us a winning ticket. Our all-underdog parlay was a particularly nasty beat, as we connected on the front end with a win on Toledo (+120), and we were feeling like locks to scoop the card with Vanderbilt up 5 points with just 30 seconds left in the game against the Florida Gators.
Bringing home share of 2nd straight @MACSports title to Glass City!!
NEXT UP: Bowling Green – Friday 6:30 pm in Savage Arena. pic.twitter.com/Vr7euG6WYv
— Toledo Men's Basketball (@toledo_mbb) March 2, 2022
But Vanderbilt gave the game away to cost us $430 bucks. We did get a profitable hedge in with some in-game action, but it was frustrating to blow that big of a lead that late in the game. It was the same story with our point spread parlay, as we hit the first 2 bets with winners on Providence (+9.5) and Wisconsin (+3), but lost the final leg, as USC got blown out at home by Arizona. We were able to get in a hedge on that game as well, with the Trojans playing the late game, so we still got the money, but on a day where we missed just 1 play on 3 different parlays, it should have been a much better day than it turned out to be.
I try to never complain too much about bad beats on bets, as when you bet as much college basketball as I do, you know that losing is part of the deal. We will lock up our 7-3-1 record on the day that led to a small win and get right back to the grind today, delivering max value, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Magic Parlay
Our money line magic parlay is a parlay that is made up of exclusively money line bets. Unlike point spread plays where a team has to win by a certain amount of points to win your bet, on a money line play, all your team has to do is win the game to get you paid. To make up for the fact that some teams are favorites and others are underdogs, you are going to either lay odds when betting on favorites or be paid out at odds for your bet if you take the underdog.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-130) at Florida State Seminoles
With the ACC being down this season, it has led to a lot less coverage of the league by the mainstream media. In just about every other season in the last couple of decades, having a 14-4 conference record in the ACC would be enough for a team to be ranked in the top-25 nationally and be a lock for a high seed in the NCAA tournament. But that just isn’t the case this year, as not only is Notre Dame not getting a lot of love right now, but they are still fairly close to the bubble for the Big Dance.
I think that is laughable, as the ACC isn’t nearly as bad as people are trying to make it out to be, and what Notre Dame has been able to do after a slow start to the season has been impressive. The Irish lost 5 of their first 9 games to start the year, but since then, they have played high-level basketball and have won 17 of their last 20 games. Quality wins have been hard to come by, as the ACC doesn’t have many quality teams this year, but the Irish are winning at a very high rate, and that tells me that this team is more than deserving of an at-large bid.
????? ???? ???? ?? ??? ??????? ??????.
— Notre Dame Basketball (@NDmbb) March 2, 2022
Notre Dame heads out on the road tonight to Tallahassee to play the Florida State Seminoles, and I like their chances at picking up the win in hostile territory. The Irish have been fantastic on the road all season long, with true road wins over Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, NC State, and Clemson. Their only road losses in ACC play came at Virginia Tech and Wake Forrest, a couple of teams that will be dancing in March.
For Florida State, the Seminoles are one of the programs that is way down in the ACC this season, as the wheels have completely fallen off for the ‘Noles in the 2nd half of the season. Florida State enters play tonight with a 2-8 record in their last 10 games, and while some of those losses were to good teams like Duke and Wake Forrest, other losses came to bad teams like Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh. At this point, I can’t trust Florida State to beat any team that is remotely talented, and I absolutely love a play on Notre Dame as small road favorites in this one.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (-165)
If the Oklahoma State Cowboys were eligible to be playing in this year’s NCAA tournament, they would find themselves right at the cut line right now. But they aren’t, as they are on probation for recruiting violations, and it seems that the fact that the Cowboys won’t be playing in the postseason has led to a lack of a sense of urgency for OK State, as they haven’t been able to hang with the rest of the Big 12 in the last several weeks.
The Cowboys have lost 8 of 11 as the rest of the league desperately tries to boost their resumes down the stretch, and after watching OSU play 3 straight overtime games, the Pokes have to be running out of gas. On the year, Oklahoma State has a total of 2 true road wins, 1 at Oral Roberts in the non-conference and a fluky win over Baylor back in mid-January. Their 2-8 record in true road games has me doubting that they have any realistic chance of winning tonight in Ames, against what should be a motivated Iowa State squad.
Cyclones ? Cowboys
? 6 p.m. (CT)
? Hilton Coliseum
? Big 12 Now on ESPN+
?️ https://t.co/rso7jhWRim#Cyclones | #C5C pic.twitter.com/ABmBVmQuER
— Iowa State Men’s Basketball (@CycloneMBB) March 2, 2022
Iowa State is in the midst of the greatest single-season turnaround in college basketball history. The Cyclones won just 2 games last year, with none of those coming in league play and entering play tonight they are 20-9, with a shot at finishing the year without a losing record in Big 12 play. That is an astounding turnaround, and, in my book, Cyclone’s head coach T.J. Otzelberger should be a runaway winner for national coach of the year.
Iowa State has had some ups and downs this season, as they struggled in the middle of the year, but they have things moving in the right direction now, as they have won 4 games in a row as they cement their status as an NCAA tournament team and gear up for the madness. Iowa State already beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater earlier this year, and I expect them to sweep the season series tonight at home as small favorites.
UCONN Huskies (-180) at Creighton Blue Jays
There might not be a team in the nation I feel worse for right now than the Creighton Blue Jays. Creighton was red-hot with wins in 7 of 8 games and looking like a team that was headed for the NCAA tournament. But then tragedy struck as freshman sensation point guard Ryan Nembhard went down with a season-ending injury. In the first game for the Blue Jays without Nembhard running the point, Creighton got blown out by Providence, and I am not sure that the Blue Jays have the depth to replace their starting point guard on the fly.
— UConn Men's Basketball (@UConnMBB) March 2, 2022
Normally, I wouldn’t dream of fading Creighton at home, as they are always one of the best home teams in the country. But now that they are shorthanded, I don’t think they are going to be able to beat this streaking UCONN team.
UCONN has been one of the hottest teams in the country for the last couple of weeks, as they have won 5 straight games, with wins over Xavier, Seton Hall, and Villanova. The Huskies are going to take advantage of the Blue Jay’s misfortune and avenge their home floor loss to the Blue Jays with a win tonight on the road.
Money Line Magic Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish -130
- Iowa State Cyclones -165
- UCONN Huskies -180
$100 Bet Pays $493
Game Total Parlay
Game total plays are commonly referred to as over/under bets because you are betting over or under the posted point total for a game. The game total is calculated by adding up the final scores of both teams. If that total score adds up to more than the total, the over bets win. If the total score adds up to under that total, bets on the under win. If the total score lands exactly on the posted total, all bets push.
Xavier Musketeers at St. John’s Red Storm Over 153
What is going on with Xavier right now? The Musketeers have been awful in February with a 1-6 record in their last 7 games. The Musketeers made a name for themselves early in the season with a stout defense, but we haven’t seen much of that from them recently, as they have been getting lit up as of late. They gave up 82 points in a losing effort to Seton Hall in their last game and had recent losses to Providence, where they gave up 99 points, and St. John’s, where the Red Storm torched them for 86 points.
153 points is a fairly high total, but with how poorly the Musketeers have played on D in the last month and how fast the Red Storm push the ball, this feels like a game that coasts to the over. The Johnnies play the 2nd fastest tempo in the country, which has led to a lot of high scoring games for St. John’s.
It's GAMEDAY ‼️ Senior Night at Carnesecca Arena ?⛈️?
— St. John's Men’s Basketball (@StJohnsBBall) March 2, 2022
The first meeting between these teams finished at 159 points, Kenpom has the rematch finishing at 155 points, which makes this total feel a little bit too low. St. John’s is 14th in the country in points per game at nearly 80 a contest, and as long as they do what they have been doing all season long, we won’t sweat this one at all.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Charlotte 49ers Over 140.5
This play is strictly a line move play. This line opened up at 145 points, which was right in line with Kenpom, as has this one finishing at a 74-71 final score. But the public thinks that they know more than the analytics, as they have hammered the under in this game, dropping it a whopping 4.5 points. Any time that the public takes a sharp line and moves it this far, it always opens up a ton of value on the other side. I love to fade the public, and that is what I will do here, with a play on the over on what is now a high value spot.
Sacred Heart Pioneers at LIU Sharks Under 156.5
The Northeast Conference is not a very talented league. Kenpom has the Northeast ranked 30th out of the 32 conferences. But whichever team wins the Northeast Conference tournament will get into the NCAA tournament, which means that as bad as this league is, it still needs to be on our radar. This game between Sacred Heart and LIU comes to us from the opening round of the Northeast Conference tournament, and while the game is going to be higher scoring, this total is too high.
❤️ ??????? ?
— Sacred Heart Basketball (@ValkyriesBBall) March 2, 2022
This will be the 3rd meeting between these teams this season. The first game finished at 134 points, the second game finished at 154 points, and now all of the sudden, the books think we are going to see 156.5 points in the third meeting? With this game being a win-or-go-home contest, we are going to see a full effort from both sides, and as a general rule, tournament games are going to skew to lower scoring, with so much on the line. I will jump on the under in this game as we have seen what this matchup looks like on the floor already, and it doesn’t look like a game that will be this high scoring.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Xavier Musketeers at St. John’s Red Storm Over 153 -110
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Charlotte 49ers Over 140.5 -110
- Sacred Heart Pioneers at LIU Sharks Under 156.5 -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
The daily dog parlay is a play where all we take are money line underdogs. Parlaying underdogs is the best way to rack up jumbo payouts on small upfront investments. Want to win a jackpot payout? Then parlaying underdogs is for you!
Saint Louis Billikens at Rhode Island Rams (+130)
I find nearly all of my daily dog plays on home underdogs. Home dogs in league play are my personal favorite plays, and we have been killing the game on home dogs all season long. I will take a stand on another home dog in this game between Rhode Island and Saint Louis. Rhode Island hasn’t won many games this year, as they are barely above .500 at 14-13 overall. But when they do win games, it is almost always at home.
The Rams are 10-4 at home this year, including a big win over Davidson, and I like their chances tonight against a Saint Louis team that has lost its way late in the year. A month ago, the Billikens were sitting in first place in the A-10 with an 8-2 record. But the pressure has gotten to Saint Louis, and they have not played well since, with a 2-4 record in their last 6 games. The Billiken’s league title hopes are now nonexistent, and so are their at-large bid dreams, as Saint Louis will now need to win the A-10 tourney to go dancing.
Final home game of the season – Bring The Ruckus. ?
?: Saint Louis
⌚: 7 PM
?: The Ryan Center
?: #MentalHealthAwareness Night#BringTheRuckus | @schealthri pic.twitter.com/zOa8w7DwgL
— Rhody MBB (@RhodyMBB) March 2, 2022
In league play, Saint Louis is just 3-5 on the road, and wins over awful teams like Duquesne and La Salle don’t give me any confidence that the Billikens can beat a decent team on the road. 9 of the Ram’s 13 losses have come by single digits, with 4 of those games coming down to 1-possesions worth of points, which tells me that the Rams record is only a couple of bounces in the other direction away from being a lot better. Give me the home team as Saint Louis has fallen apart down the stretch, and I don’t trust them to win on the road.
Wyoming Cowboys at UNLV Runnin Rebels (-105)
I have been single-handedly driving the Wyoming hype train for most of the season, as I felt that the Cowboys weren’t getting nearly enough attention. A couple of weeks ago, Wyoming was 21-3 with top-100 wins over Grand Canyon, Northern Iowa, Utah State (twice), Colorado State, Boise State, and Fresno State. I felt that they absolutely deserved an at-large bid. But I guess I was wrong, and the public was right (that literally never happens) as Wyoming has stumbled to the finish line of the regular season with a 2-3 record in their last 5 games.
Senior night ?
— UNLV Men's Basketball (@TheRunninRebels) March 2, 2022
The Cowboys were undefeated at home prior to their loss to San Diego State in their last game, and when I look at the full body of work for the Cowboys, they haven’t played great away from home. The road losses to Arizona, Boise State, and Colorado State are certainly nothing to be ashamed of, but losses to Stanford and New Mexico make me think that the Cowboys are going to be on upset alert tonight against an upstart UNLV team.
Bryce Hamilton is amongst the top scorers in the country at nearly 22 points per game, and he gives the Rebels a weapon that most other teams in the Mountain West Conference don’t have. Hamilton has led his Rebels to wins over Colorado State (twice), and Fresno State and UNLV’s 9 league wins are solid in what has been a good league this season in the MWC. 13 of UNLV’s wins have come in Las Vegas, and I smell upset tonight from the Thomas and Mack Center!
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Rhode Island Rams +130
- UNLV Runnin Rebels -105
$100 Bet Pays $450
Point Spread Plays
In this final section, we are making plays on the point spread. A point spread bet is the most basic of all college hoops bets. In order to cash a bet on the point spread, your team must cover the number. Like a team as a big favorite? You might have to lay a bunch of points in order to win your bet. Think the underdog will lose, but keep the game close? Then snatching up the points is the side you’ll want to be on.
LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks (-5)
When you listen to the talking heads on TV, they will talk about the various teams that could win a national title. In most years, there are 5 or maybe 6 teams that have legit chances of winning the national title. This year, there are at least a dozen teams that could win it all, as the field is truly wide open. We saw that illustrated last weekend when 7 of the top-10 all lost on the same day, including each of the currently projected 1 seeds.
One team that you don’t hear much about in the national title conversation that you absolutely should, are the Arkansas Razorbacks. I honestly don’t know why the Razorbacks are under the radar right now, as they were a 3 seed in last year’s NCAA tournament, making a run to the Elite 8 before losing to eventual champion Baylor, and they came into this season as one of the favorites in the SEC. Maybe it was the Razorback’s weak scheduling in the non-conference or their slow start in league play that took them out of the national spotlight? But with wins in 13 of their last 14 games, Arkansas is reminding everyone that they are indeed an elite team.
IT'S MARCH. IT'S GAMEDAY.
— 8pm ESPN2 ? (@RazorbackMBB) March 2, 2022
There likely isn’t a hotter team in the country right now than Arkansas as the ‘Backs have recent wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, and Auburn. With how well Arkansas has played in the second half of the season, I am a bit surprised at how tight this line is. Arkansas beat LSU in Baton Rouge earlier this year by 7 points, and now that they get this game at Bud Walton Arena, this could end up being a blowout.
LSU has been awful on the road in league play with a 2-7 record, and their road losses at Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, TCU, and Vanderbilt all came by at least 9 points. I am on the home team, and I doubt we are even going to sweat this one, as Arkansas just might run the Tigers out of the building tonight.
Fordham Rams (+4) at UMASS Minutemen
If you are a daily reader of my parlay of the day plays, this might be a familiar game, as we just bet on this same matchup on Monday, with a winning bet on Fordham. That game was played on the Ram’s home floor, and this game will be at UMASS, but after watching Fordham win that game just 2 days ago by 12 points, it is surprising to see the Minutemen as fairly large favorites in the rematch. Fordham is by no means an elite team, but they are playing their best basketball of the season, with 4 wins in their last 6 games, and they are ranked 26 spots higher on Kenpom than UMASS.
— Fordham Men’s Basketball (@FordhamMBB) March 2, 2022
Even at home, UMASS hasn’t had very much success this year in the A-10, as they have a 3-5 home floor record in league play. They have home losses to Duquesne and George Washington, and they just shouldn’t be laying this many points against any team that is even remotely competitive. My gut says that Fordham wins this game outright, but road games in conference play can always be tricky, so instead of taking them on the money line, I will take the lower variance play and back the Rams with the points.
Auburn Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+4)
The Auburn Tigers are a very good basketball team. They just might be the best basketball team in the nation, as they have spent time ranked number 1 this year. But it is almost like there are 2 teams playing at Auburn this year. The team that they are at when they play at home, and the team they are on the road, and I will be the first to tell you that the version of the Tigers on the road certainly isn’t the best team in the country, and they might not even be a good team.
— Mississippi State MBK (@HailStateMBK) March 2, 2022
Auburn went from barely winning all of their games on the road to now losing all of their games away from home. The Tigers played with fire a lot earlier in the season as they had road wins at South Florida by 6, Saint Louis by 4, Alabama by 4, Missouri by 1, and Georgia by 2. As you can see, that is not a great group of teams that the Tigers barely snuck past. But those close wins seem amazing now compared to what the Tigers have done in the last couple of weeks as they are riding a 3-game road losing streak into play tonight at Mississippi State.
Against the spread this year, Auburn is 3-7 in true road games. That is the similar road record ATS as teams like Rice, Stoney Brook, and Montana. I certainly don’t want to compare Auburn to those teams, but bad play on the road is bad play on the road. I have been fading the Tigers on the road all season long and getting paid, and I will stick with that tonight in this game and back the Bulldogs and the points.
Point Spread Plays Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Arkansas Razorbacks (-5) -110
- Fordham Rams (+4) -110
- Mississippi State Bulldogs (+4) -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on NCAA Men’s College Hoops can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s NCAA Men’s Basketball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free college hoops picks each and every day!