Yesterday we delivered all kinds of value as we had a 9-6-1 day, which included the biggest upset of the evening, when the Michigan State Spartans knocked off the Ohio State Buckeyes. While most of the nation was shocked to see Sparty defeat Ohio State, my readers weren’t, as we were all over Michigan State and picked up a nice win on them at +155 on the money line.
Michigan State has now won three straight games and five out of their last seven, and Tom Izzo has his team poised for an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament after struggling for much of the season. Today, we are back on the hunt for value and will bring you several more high-value parlay plays. Let’s get started!
Point Spread Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on point spread parlays. A point spread parlay is a parlay bet where all of the games bet are point spreads, and you will have to lay a little juice on each bet. A standard 3-team point spread parlay will payout 6-1, a 4-teamer pays out 11-1, and a 10-teamer pays out a whopping 720-1! As you can see, the payouts can get really big, really fast, on point spread parlays!
Drake Bulldogs (-6) at Bradley Braves
Pop quiz, how many teams in the nation have more wins than the Drake Bulldogs do right now? Did you guess one? Because that’s the right answer. Only Belmont has more wins than Drake, and after seeing the Bulldogs pick up a huge win over Loyola-Chicago, I think they are going to be dancing in March. And not only have the Bulldogs been impressive straight up, but they also hold the distinction of having the most ATS wins in the country as well, with a 19-4 record against the number.
🔵⚪️ GAMEDAY ⚪️🔵
On the road in Peoria this week to close the #MVCHoops season starting tonight at 6 p.m.
📺HOW TO WATCH📺
— Drake Basketball (@DrakeBulldogsMB) February 26, 2021
As for Bradley, the Braves have a decent squad this year, but there is a significant talent gap between them and the top of the Missouri Valley Conference. Against teams with a winning record in MVC play, the Braves have yet to win a single game. ATS spread, Bradley is the 2nd worst team in the league with an awful 7-14-2 record. At this point, the Braves are just hoping this disappointment of a season comes to an end, as they have lost ten out of their last twelve games. In a spot where I can back a road team that is on fire and finds a way to cover almost every game, against a home team that has only one win at home in over a month, and never covers, I am taking the hot hand.
Purdue Boilermakers (+2) at Penn State Nittany Lions
There might not be a team with worse luck this year than the Penn State Nittany Lions. In any other league besides the Big 10, Penn State is probably a tournament-level team. But in the Big 10, they are getting hammered to the tune of a 5-11 conference play record. The data loves Penn State, as Kenpom has them ranked 34th, despite a bad overall record at 8-12. The Nittany Lions won their last game, at home against Nebraska, to snap a four-game losing streak, and they have been somewhat respectable at home, with wins over Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Maryland.
— Penn State Men’s Basketball (@PennStateMBB) February 26, 2021
While Penn State does have a couple solid wins on their resume at home, they also have home losses to Seton Hall, Illinois, Nebraska, and Ohio State. And when you look at Purdue, the Boilermakers have emerged as a road warrior in the Big 10. Purdue has managed to win road games at Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State, and Nebraska in the most home-dominated power conference in the country. Kenpom has Purdue winning this one outright, so to be able to back them getting +2-points shows significant value.
Northern Iowa Panthers at Illinois State Redbirds (+4)
Neither one of these teams are very good this year. They have identical 7-15 records, and while Northern Iowa has a better reputation based on some fairly recent NCAA tournament performances, this year, they are trading on their good name, as they just don’t have enough talent on the roster to stay competitive in the Missouri Valley Conference. At home, the Panthers have been respectable, but on the road or neutral site games, they are just 1-10, with their lone victory coming at 222nd ranked Southern Illinois.
Hey everyone, it's a @hellocountry GAMEDAY!!
— Redbird Men's Basketball (@Redbird_MBB) February 26, 2021
Home underdogs are always some of my favorite plays to make, especially in league games. Illinois State hasn’t had a lot of success this year, but they have played well recently, as they have won two of their last three games, including a big win over Bradley in their last game. Kenpom has the Redbirds winning this game 73-71, and it is fairly shocking to see a six-point gap between the data and the betting line. I will back the data and take Illinois State to cover at home.
Point Spread Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Drake Bulldogs (-6) -110
- Purdue Boilermakers (+2) -110
- Illinois State Redbirds (+4) -110
$100 Bet Wins $600
Money Line Magic
This next type of parlay we are going to look at is an all money line parlay. With these types of bets, you don’t care about points spreads, it is just who wins or loses the games that matter. Want to load up on a bunch of favorites and get paid when they all win? Do you smell a couple of big upsets? Parlay those together on a money line parlay, and you can get paid big!
Tulane Green Wave at Cincinnati Bearcats (-275)
If Cincinnati hadn’t had so many COVID-19 related delays this year, they might be a team in consideration for an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament with how they have been playing lately. Since returning from their most recent three week pause, the Bearcats have won five out of six games, with the only loss coming at top-10 ranked Houston. Cincy does play their next three games at home, with chances to pad their resume with games against quality opposition like Memphis and SMU. But even if the Bearcats find a way to run the table in the regular season, their 12-8 record won’t be good enough to get them a serious look from the Selection Committee.
It's GAME DAY, Cincinnati!
— Cincinnati Men’s Hoops (@GoBearcatsMBB) February 26, 2021
If you just glance at these team’s record, you might think that they are similarly matched as they have records that look a lot alike, and they play in the same league. But when you dig a little deeper, you can see that Cincy has had a much better season. Tulane doesn’t have a single win over a top-100 team, and five of their nine wins have come over teams ranked outside of the top-200. A win over the Bearcats would be by far the best win of the year for the Green Wave, and I just don’t think they are capable of getting it done on the road. Back the Bearcats at home.
Nebraska Omaha Mavericks at Denver Pioneers (-124)
Here is a game that likely is not anywhere near your radar. Denver and Nebraska Omaha and bringing up the rear in The Summit League, as the conference’s two worst teams. Both teams are ranked outside of the top-300 nationally, and you can make a case that they both deserve to be in the conversation for the worst team in the nation.
But that being said, somebody has to win this game! And I like the home team. There are teams you can back on the road in league play, and then there is Nebraska Omaha. Denver has played a brutal stretch of games where they have played six of their last eight games on the road, and they will be happy to be back on their home floor tonight, and you can book them to pick up their 3rd win of the season tonight.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at Georgia Southern Eagles (-124)
Home teams have won in Sun Belt league play at a sizzling hot 65% rate. That makes the Sun Belt one of the most home team dominated leagues in the nation. When you look at these two team’s records, you see that home dominance from both squads, as Appalachian State is just 1-4 on the road in conference, and Georgia Southern is 4-2 at home in league play. This is just a standard home/road split play, as if this game were being played at App State, I would be going the other way. If you get a chance to take a home team in the Sun Belt at a cheap price like this, you can basically bet it blind.
Southern Utah Thunderbirds (-385) at Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
In this final money line play, we are just going to pick a little low hanging fruit on an undervalued favorite. If you have been an avid reader on my college hoops daily betting picks this year, you know that I love me some Southern Utah. The Thunderbirds and neck and neck with Eastern Washington for the Big Sky regular season title, and they know they can’t afford to let a winnable game like this one slip by.
This time at their place ⚡️
— SUU Men's Basketball (@SUUBasketball) February 26, 2021
Northern Arizona fits into that conversation of the worst teams in the country with Denver and Nebraska Omaha, as they are currently ranked 333rd on Kenpom and have lost eight out of their last ten games. The Lumberjack’s best win of the season so far came over 193rd ranked Montana, and they don’t have another win over a team in the top-250. I am not a huge fan of laying wood on the road in conference play, but this one is free money, so I’ll take advantage of what I feel is an underpriced line and back the Thunderbirds.
Money Line Magic Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Cincinnati Bearcats -275
- Denver Pioneers -124
- Georgia Southern Eagles -124
- Southern Utah Thunderbirds -385
$100 Bet Wins $461
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can back these teams getting the points, but the best way to get a huge return on your money is to take these teams on the money line!
Georgia State Panthers at South Alabama Jaguars (+112)
We already talked about how home teams are crushing in the Sun Belt, so it is a bit surprising that I can get South Alabama as home dogs tonight against Georgia State. The Jaguars have reeled off eight consecutive victories and are surging up the league standings as they have pulled into 2nd place behind Texas State. Kenpom will tell you that Georgia State is the best team in the Sun Belt this season, but they are currently stuck in 4th place, as they just haven’t been able to win on the road. Road losses at Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State (twice) have me wanting to fade the Panthers. Give me South Alabama as home dogs in a mild upset.
Richmond Spiders (+160) at Saint Louis Billikens
I honestly feel bad for the Saint Louis Billikens. When Saint Louis got shut down in late December, they were 7-1 with wins over power conference teams LSU and NC State. But after missing more than a full month’s worth of action, the Billikens just haven’t been the same since. Saint Louis is just 4-4 since their return, and a loss tonight probably ends any shot at an at-large bid for Travis Ford’s team. With Saint Louis sitting on the sidelines, Richmond has taken advantage of it and is making a big tournament push, as they have won four out of their last five games. The Spiders are looking for their 5th top-100 win of the season tonight, and I think that they get it as they have caught Saint Louis at the perfect time.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- South Alabama Jaguars +112
- Richmond Spiders +160
$100 Bet Wins $451
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
George Washington Colonials at St. Bonaventure Bonnies (-14.5)
You can count on one finger how many times George Washington has won on the road this year, and that win came late last year, at 292nd ranked Fordham. The Bonnies know they must win tonight, and with only fifteen games played on their resume, they are going to be looking for style points as well. When the Bonnies have played teams ranked similarly to GW, they have mostly blown them out. St. Bonaventure beat George Mason by seventeen, Fordham by fourteen, Saint Joe’s by twenty-six, and La Salle by thirteen. Expect more of the same tonight as the Bonnies dominate with the win and cover.
Drexel Dragons at James Madison Dukes (-1)
This line doesn’t make a ton of sense as James Madison is the class of the Colonial this season, as they sit alone in first place at 8-1. They are undefeated at home in Colonial play, and they are red-hot at the moment, winners of ten out of their last eleven games, including a current seven-game winning streak. Drexel is actually ranked slightly higher than James Madison despite being in 7th place. The Dragon’s issues have been almost exclusively on the road, as five of their seven losses have come in true road games. Home team. League play. Book it.
North Texas Mean Green (+5) at Marshall Thundering Herd
The Mean Green of North Texas played an ambitious non-conference schedule as they played West Virginia, Loyola-Chicago, Mississippi State, and Arkansas, with each of those games coming on the road. They lost all of those games, but they hit Conference USA play battle-tested, and it has shown, as they are 8-2, tied with Western Kentucky for first place. Marshall has been tough at home, but they do have home floor losses to Toledo and Western Kentucky, and you could argue that the Mean Green are better than either of those two teams. Will they pull off the outright upset? Hard to say, but I do love a cover getting this many points. I’ll take North Texas and the points.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Old Dominion Monarchs (-8)
This one is just a number play. Kenpom has Old Dominion winning by double digits, and the books are only charging us an eight-point premium to back the Monarchs. ODU is 7-1 at home this season, and they play against a Middle Tennessee team that is 0-5 in true road games. The Blue Raiders have lost all but one of their road games by at least eleven points, and to top it off, they haven’t played in nearly two weeks and are certain to be rusty. This one could get ugly, and it won’t be shocking if Old Dominion blows this one completely out.
Missouri State Bears (-5) at Evansville Purple Aces
Missouri State is a good basketball team. In most seasons, a team of this caliber is going to be right in the league title mix in the MVC. But this isn’t a typical season in the valley, as they have seen two teams, Loyola-Chicago and Drake, both find their way into the top-25. Against Drake and Loyola-Chicago, the Bears are 0-4. Against every other team on their schedule, they are 15-1. Against teams ranked outside of the top-200, like the Purple Aces are right now, Missouri State has won by an average of fifteen points per game. Evansville has lost six straight games and nine out of their last eleven. Expect more struggles for the Purple Aces tonight at home.
UAB Blazers at UTSA Roadrunners (+4)
It wasn’t the start to the season that UTSA was hoping for this year, as they lost five of their first six conference games, but it sure has been the finish they wanted. The Roadrunners have caught fire in the second half of play in Conference USA, winning seven out of their last eight games. And even when things weren’t going well early in the year, UTSA has always been great at home, as they are 10-1 in San Antonio. So, you’re saying I can back a home team in conference play that has won 90% of their home games, and I can pick up +4 points along the way? Oh, and did I mention that UAB is playing their worst basketball of the season as they have lost three of five after starting the season out 16-2? Ok, I’ll bite. Give me the home team.
Southern Illinois Salukis at Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (-19)
Could we really break down all of these MVC teams without making a play on the Ramblers? Loyola-Chicago absolutely mauls teams at home this season as they are a perfect 11-0 in Chicago. The Ramblers have played a tough schedule this year, at least by MVC standards, but when they do play weak teams like this Southern Illinois team, they smash them. Loyola-Chicago has wins over Valpo, Northern Iowa, Illinois State, St Francis, Chicago State, and Lewis that all came by at least twenty points. Heck, they even beat the next two best teams in their conference, Drake and Missouri State, by 27, 20, and 26 points, respectively. It’s going to be a blood bath tonight at Gentile Arena.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
- Teams Odds
- St. Bonaventure (-14.5) -110
- James Madison Dukes (-1) -110
- North Texas Mean Green (+5) -110
- Old Dominion Monarchs (-8) -110
- Missouri State Bears (-5) -110
- UTSA Roadrunners (+4) -110
- Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (-19) -110
$100 Bet Wins $9,000
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Thanks for reading and make sure that you stay tuned to TheSportsGeek for all of your March Madness betting advice and be sure to check out our college hoops betting page, where we bring you free daily betting picks each and every day!