Another week of DWCS is underway. We’re looking forward to six fights on Tuesday night, with three undefeated fighters on the card. The finishing percentage across all fighters is above 75%, with several fighters boasting 100% win finish ratios. It’s going to be another wild night.
Last week’s excitement lead to five UFC contracts handed out to winners. I think we may see a similar encore-worthy performance this week.
That's right, 𝑭𝑰𝑽𝑬 contracts locked in tonight! 🔏
— UFC (@ufc) September 8, 2021
I’ve learned my lesson betting on the last two weeks of DWCS. Betting the over is a fool’s game for the majority of fights. Fighters want to win a contract so the vibe is kill or be killed. I picked ⅗ in week one and ⅖ in week two. With the DWCS learning curve behind me, we’re feeling confident in bringing up DWCS to my usual +70% picking ratio.
Let’s dive into the stats, odds, props, and history for each of these exciting fighters, starting with the main event and working toward the beginning of the show.
Bantamweight – Brandon Lewis vs Mo Miller
|Brandon Lewis||Mo Miller|
|1 submission, 2 TKO||Submissions/TKO||1 submissions, 3 TKO|
Lewis is coming off LFA bouts where he was a -250 favorite and a +105 underdog, winning both bouts. His last fight was a split decision win over Jimmy Meza, a quick to rise 2-1 featherweight out of Texas. Lewis is yet to fight anyone of significance. His most experienced opponent had his as his seventh fight.
Mo Miller is also an LFA alum. In his last two bouts he came in at -250 and +170 winning both in the second round by submission and slam KO respectively. He served Mando Gutierrez his only loss. Miller’s last bout with Regivaldo Carvalho had him dominating the first round against a Glover Texiera protege. Mo has clearly faced better opposition.
Mo is also on a four-fight finishing streak. Prop bets for the bout include ‘Fight goes to decision’ at +155 and ‘Fight doesn’t go to decision’ at -195. Betting ‘fight doesn’t go to decision’ gives us better odds than a Mo Miller win, so despite the fact that I see Mo winning in the first,
I’ll simply bet ‘Fight Doesn’t go to Decision’ at -195 and get the best of both worlds! Thank you, MMA online sportsbooks for serving up a meatball.
Light Heavyweight – Jailton Almeida Junior vs Nasrudin Nasrudinov
|Jailton Almeida Junior||Nasrudin Nasrudinov|
|5 submissions, 6 TKO||Submissions/TKO||1 submissions, 4 TKO|
Jailton is on an eight-fight win streak finishing all eight bouts by TKO or submission, seven of them in the first round. Some of these were easy fights, smashing fighters who’ve never won a bout or had their debut. He defeated the 21-8 Ednaldo Oliveira, and two other notables.
Nasrudin is an ACA import, smashing the PFL’s Cory Hendricks with a first-round TKO in March 2020. He’s patient for a young fighter, with a majority of second and third-round TKOs. When I see that in an undefeated prospect, it builds confidence in my bet.
Jailton could win the bout due to the smaller cage. It seems like it shouldn’t be such a large factor, but Jailton strikes heavily if he pins someones back to the fence. Nasrudin’s lateral shuffle could run into this issue, where his back is repeatedly set to the cage.
Jailton’s striking and takedown game are lacking technique. He’s stiff on the feet and shoots with no set up. He needs to hope his submission game is light years ahead of Nasrudin’s in order to take home the win.
Props include ‘Fight does/doesn’t go to decision’ at +205/-285. WIth Nasrudin’s slow starting, I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a decision against a quality grappler. After watching Jailton’s last three bouts, it could go either way. He has multiple round-long grappling exchanges that amount to little in terms of damage or submission attempts.
Middleweight – Albert Duraev vs Caio Bittencourt
|Albert Duraev||Caio Bittencourt|
|8 submissions, 3 TKO||Submissions/TKO||2 submissions, 12 TKO|
Albert Duraev is on an eight-fight win streak for the Polish ACB organization, where he is the current champion. He’s finished six of his last eight contenders, with two fights going to a unanimous decision. He is an increasingly strong favorite, coming it at -615 for his last bout. The trouble is, Covid put him out of commission. He hasn’t fought since September 2018.
Albert’s most notable win is against Clifford Starks. Clifford is a UFC and Bellator alum. He went 2-0 in Bellator and 1-2 in UFC. Albert finished him in the second round with a choke submission.
Duraev is good, but I lack the confidence to bet on him outright against a strong finisher like Caio. His three losses came by way of knockout. One of those losses was to Ramazan Emeev, a man who is primarily a grappler. Another TKO came from the scrappy but inconsistent Evgeni Fomenko, an 18-16 Russian.
He’s also on an eight-fight win streak, winning six in the first round. Bittencourt is a talented and ruthless BJJ player with a heel hook win where he tore the opponents knee significantly. His team, ROXO Strike, teaches some of the best kickboxing in Brazil. Bittencourt has no odds history to speak of. His last bout was also in 2018.
The prop bet ‘Fight does/doesn’t go to decision is available at +175/-245. With three years off, I don’t feel confident betting on an individual. Have they been training? Have they been injured? There is no telling.
However, I will bet ‘Fight doesn’t go to decision’ at -245 for a $0.41 on the dollar return. Caio is a killer and he’ll force a finish even if it means his loss.
Heavyweight – Dylan Potter vs Lukasz Brzeski
|Dylan Potter||Lukasz Brzeski|
|7 submissions, 3 TKO||Submissions/TKO||2 submissions, 8 TKO|
Lukasz Brzeski has fought mostly for smaller organizations, and the quality of his opponents is difficult to measure. His current fight team has produced only three fighters. No odds have been produced for Brzeski’s ten fights. His last three opponents have held records of 5-2. 21-8 and 20-13.
Michal Kita, the 20-13 opponent, was declared a draw. Michal showed us how to wear out Brzeski with good defensive wrestling and simply keeping a high guard. I feel Michal won the bout.
Dylan Potter has won four of his last six. He lost a split decision to Myron Dennis in the LFA. Potter was a +180 underdog in that bout, and Myron is the toughest opponent either man has faced. Potter is lanky and much less physically imposing than Brzeski. His most recent bouts show improved striking, but it’s difficult to tell against such unqualified fighters.
It’s a $0.29 per dollar return. I think Potter has a puncher’s chance, and I think his BJJ is better than Lukasz’s by a mile. Lukasz should bully him into a win, but it’s less one-sided than the MMA online betting sites are posing. Neither of them has been up against next-level, UFC-like fighters.
Welterweights – Ange Loosa vs Jack Della Maddalena
|Ange Loosa||Jack Della Maddalena|
|1 submissions, 5 TKO||Submissions/TKO||1 submissions, 8 TKO|
Ange Loosa is a Swiss fighter who recently loss his LFA debut to Jonathon Thomson by split decision. His other seven bouts have been a mostly record padding. His first four opponents had losing records, his fifth opponent is now 1-2. He defeated Rustam “The Wolf Man” of FightSpirit Team with a TKO and his recent split decision win against the 5-1 Collin Lubberts could have gone either way.
Ange showed decent ground and pound in early matches. His grappling looks underdeveloped but was defensive enough to survive Rustam. He was held down or against the fence for most of the Thomas and Lubberts’ bouts. His last fight was in April 2019.
Jack Della Maddalena has finished all nine of his wins by submission or TKO. These wins are a nine-fight winning streak due to Jack losing his first two bouts. Overall, Jack has head tougher opponents on average, but nothing near Ange’s last three bouts. Jack is a rising star in Australia and is ranked #3 for the country.
Prop bets include ‘Fight does/doesn’t go to decision” at +225/-305.
Ange’s striking isn’t at a UFC level. He’s small for a welterweight so he gets moved around often. His conditioning is great, but that only matters if Jack’s isn’t. Over two years out of the cage and jumping straight into a DWCS show? That’s too much pressure for even the best young fighters.
Flyweight – Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Julia Polastri
|Jasmine Jasudavicius||Julia Polastri|
|1 submissions, 2 TKO||Submissions/TKO||1 submissions, 3 TKO|
Jasmine Jasudavicius is a slight favorite, and I’m guessing it’s due to weight advantage. Julia usually fights at Strawweight. This is the closest fight on the card, both in odds, on paper, and in my analysis. We’ll take a close look at their records to see why.
Jasmine’s only loss comes from Elise Reed, a four and one prospect out of Kickside MA in New Jersey. Jasmine was outstruck for the majority of the bout, with the larger Reed landing jabs and kicks at will. Elise recently lost her UFC debut.
Jasmine defeated Ashley Deen in March 2020, handing Deen her sixth loss-making her record 5-6. Her last win before that was Gabriella Guffin, a smaller flyweight that she handed a second loss. Gabriella’s record is now 2-3.
Julia Polastria is on a six-fight win streak. 8-3 Jessica Monteiro was her last and most notable win. She’s also defeated Invicta’s Jessica Delboni. The majority of her other wins are against losing record fighters. Again, all of these bouts are at Strawweight including her two losses. Jasmine is going to cut significant weight to fight 125lbs.
Prop bets include ‘Fight does/doesn’t go to decision’ at -175/+135. I almost want to bet it will go to decision, but I’ll heed my own advice. Remember that people come to DWCS to put on a show, not to eke out a victory.
I pick Jasmine Jasudavicius -110. She’s dangerous, she’s way bigger, and she’s fought UFC level fighters in the past in competitive match ups.
DWCS Best Parlay Options
I’m looking at these six fights, feeling confident in the majority of my picks. Of the six, these three making up the best mixture of certainty and odds. I’ll bet the three of them as a parlay.
- Brandon Lewis vs Mo Miller Fight doesn’t go to decision prop at (-195)
- Jack Della Maddalena (-145)
- Albert Duraev vs Caio Bittencourt Fight doesn’t go to decision prop at (-245)
This parlay receives $2.60 per dollar wagered. These bouts are my most confident of the six. Tell us what you think in the comments and enjoy these great match ups!