Don’t Bet on Mayor Pete Winning the DNC Nomination

Democratic Candidate Pete Buttigieg Smiling - Bar Graph Going Up - Democratic Party Logo

DNC Presidential Candidate Bovada’s Betting Odds
Bernie Sanders +130
Michael Bloomberg +350
Pete Buttigieg +450
Joe Biden +550
Elizabeth Warren +1400
Hillary Clinton +2000
Andrew Yang +3000
Amy Klobuchar +6600

At the moment, Pete Buttigieg probably looks like a realistic option to become the Democratic nominee chosen to take on Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. After a strong, if not controversial, “win” in the Iowa caucus, the Mayor of South Bend enjoyed a bump in the polls, suggesting he’ll be the thorn in Bernie’s side in New Hampshire as well.

I’m here to warn you not to get caught up in the hype. This candidate is nothing but fool’s gold – let me explain why.

Bright Lights of Debate Expose Mayor Pete

They may all be competing to become the Democratic nominee for President, but the field of candidates clearly do not see all of their opponents as equals. While a progressive-vs-moderate battle has framed most of the primaries, on Friday night, the line was drawn between members of Congress/beltway veterans and the small-town Mayor.

More than just the Sanders campaign resented Pete’s premature declaration of victory (and whatever else that was in Iowa). Sure, Bernie was put on the spot a few times too, but everyone on that stage was coming for the Mayor’s head – and he endured the worst PR moment of the campaign as a result.

Side Note:

Sen. Sanders and Andrew Yang both used the phrase “nibbling around the edges,” on Friday night. I refuse to believe that was anything but intentional, and a direct result of the rat memes Pete Buttigieg’s Iowa tactics (and, if we’re being honest, his rodent-like features) inspired.

The most devastating blows to the Buttigieg campaign were dealt by Lindsey Davis, the debate moderator, who noted that during Pete’s tenure as Mayor, “a black resident in South Bend, Indiana was four times more likely to be arrested for marijuana possession than a white resident,” — a disparity that worsened with the presidential hopeful in office.

Initially, the Mayor attempted to lie responding, “the reality is, on my watch drug arrests were lower than the national average and specifically to marijuana, lower than Indiana.” But Davis didn’t accept Pete’s version of events, insisting and reiterating that marijuana arrests increased during his time as Mayor.

His next answer had to do with gun and gang violence, essentially blaming the high disparity of marijuana arrests between African American and white residents on the black community themselves, not his policies.

Future Mayor Pete Talking Points

While the liberal media is focused on taking down Bernie, they’ll let Mayor Pete slide on his – let’s say “problematic” — past. But it’s a different game in the generals when the man in the Oval Office is tweeting about one’s past mistakes and glaring weakness – then it’s not so easy for CNN and MSNBC to stick their heads in the sand.

Let me know if you think the President’s campaign strategists, right-wing super PACs, and the online horde of Trump fans/trolls will take advantage of these “inconvenient” facts:

If Republicans were able to attack John Kerry on his actual service, what will they make of Pete’s cubicle soldiering?
  • The Buttigieg campaign website features a plan that sounds like reinstating the draft.
  • As Mayor of South Bend, Pete fired the city’s black police chief for allegedly recording some of his white officers making racist remarks. The racist cops in question went unpunished.
  • Buttigieg has been caught in lies regarding his awareness of the tapes and claim that the police chief was under FBI investigation.
  • Henry Davis Jr., an African American city council member in South Bend, came forward during the New Hampshire debate to educated voters in how Pete perpetuated systemic racism in his town:

    “As a Councilman in #SouthBend, I know why @PeteButtigieg looked like a deer in headlights last night when talking about systemic racism in the South Bend Police. He tolerated it, he perpetuated it, and last night he lied to millions of Americans about it,” the councilman tweeted.

  • He’s lied about cutting the poverty rate of South Bend’s black population in half. Poverty among the city’s African American residents is nearly twice as high as national averages.
  • As Mayor, Pete led an aggressive demolition initiative, leveling homes of unsuspecting owners in black and Latino neighborhoods, who were never told their properties made the “demo list,” all in a larger initiative to gentrify these areas.
  • The Buttigieg campaign also lied about black leaders in South Carolina supporting the candidate’s “Douglass Plan.” A campaign email listed hundreds of “supporters” for the plan, who were forced to clarify that they never endorsed the Mayor and were misled into being included in the correspondence. It later came out that 40% of the inclusions on the list were white.

Ask Yourself:

After reading this list, on what issues can Mayor Pete effectively attack Donald Trump without being a hypocrite? Racism? Morality? Being beholden to big-money interests?

There’s no wonder why the guy has polled abysmally with black voters since the very beginning! He’s spent his entire career impacting their communities in a plethora of antagonistic ways and now wants to pretend to be a progressive hero.

But here’s the thing:
If African American voters stay home on election day this November, Mayor Pete doesn’t have a prayer of defeating Donald Trump.

What about the Mayor’s questionable past, present campaign, or “say anything to win” ambitious demeanor would make black voters think now – after years of contributing to systemic racism on behalf of his own self-interests – Buttigieg is going to change his ways?

A Truly Scary Candidate

I try to shy away from giving my opinions about the candidates, beyond discussing their decisions and the details of campaign strategies (and the occasional joke), but Pete Buttigieg is terrifying. Everything about his resume reeks of a psychopathic unquenchable thirst for acquiring power.

It’s not about doing the jobs for the megalomaniac – which, based on his resume, I contend, is an adequate label for Pete; gaining ever-more control is its own intrinsic pursuit. There isn’t a doubt in my mind that should Mayor Pete become “President Pete,” in no time at all; he will become the real Chancellor Sutler from V for Vendetta.

The Cost of Being a “Rat”

The DNC and the Pete Buttigieg campaign are both breathtakingly stupid. I get it – historically, the winner of the first two states goes on to the nomination, so Tom Perez was desperate to prevent Bernie Sanders from wearing that title.

But, in exposing his – and the liberal media’s — blatant biases, and the lengths they’re willing to go to alter outcomes/narratives, they’ve put the Bernie army on notice much too early in the proceedings and turned Pete into a “rat,” by exposing his success in both blocking a crucial Iowa poll and altering the rules for satellite caucuses when they weren’t going the Mayor’s way.

Between those bad optics and Buttigieg’s decision to declare himself the winner of the Iowa caucuses, with zero-percent of the precinct’s reporting, the 38-year-old has been beautifully described as the “ Kinda Kid Who Unplugged the Sega If He Was Losing.”

Pete and Perez Lack Patience and Perspective

The right move was to relax and give Bernie supporters their two opening wins and a false sense of security. Mayor Pete won the same number of pledged delegates anyway; people would have considered that an enormous victory for him anyway.

All Pete had to do was come out and say, “Bernie won Iowa because I believe in the popular vote — but I’m proud that we’re coming out of the starting line with 11 pledged delegates.” That comment doesn’t incite the left to start digging into every corner of the Mayor’s past to unearth problematic scandals. The older voters would see him as a good sport.

New Rules
People will cite the historical data – how every candidate to win the first two states went on to represent the DNC in the generals, but they don’t acknowledge a glaring difference this year: proportional allocation. That changes everything strategically and minimizes the effect of momentum, as long as the field remains relatively large.

With Biden’s collapse, Mayor Pete could have easily coasted down that corporate centrist lane while playing the young guy “honored to be there,” at least until March or so.

Confidence in a Contested Convention

It’s pretty simple: Warren, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg are convinced to stay in the race (and financed) to the end. In some states, Mayor Pete challenges Bernie for roughly half the pledged delegates; in others, it’s Bloomberg or Warren that battles for second — but there are always two or three people splitting the pot.

By the end, Sen. Sanders will have won the most states, but at the convention, he’ll be just shy of the 1,991 pledged delegates necessary to be nominated on the first ballot and avoid a contested convention – and thus, superdelegates.

It’s About Perception

Will the Bernie Sanders wing of the party ever be happy about their guy winning the most states but losing on the convention floor? Of course not; they’ll be furious. But if Mayor Pete competed nobly and with fairness, I bet a higher percentage of them would come around by November. Especially, if in those enraging DNC convention moments, the alternative option besides Pete was Michael Bloomberg.

By first, benefiting from dubious errors in the caucuses; then claiming the early “W;” and, finally, calling the DNC Chair, Tom Perez, to intervene on his behalf – after spiking the Des Moine Register Poll, no less – reminds the entire electorate of every over-ambitious, dishonest, whiney, little rat they’ve ever known.

Whatever boost the campaign received from that hollow three-day pseudo-victory wasn’t worth:
1) the damage to Buttigieg’s image among the working-class (which will matter in middle-America),
2) putting a target on his back for the rest of the field in the debates, and
3) showing the Bernie supporters that their suspicions about DNC interference and its collusion with corporate Democrats are correct.

If I Were Attacking Bernie…
I’d focus on the specific details of how he’ll go about fulfilling the Senator’s lofty campaign promises. I have lots of good things to say about Sanders, but I must say; the New York Times Editorial Board endorsement interview left me a bit disappointed.

If, like in that interview, he says the plan is predicated on flying to Kentucky and holding rallies to oppose a longtime incumbent like Mitch McConnell – you can pretty much roll your eyes at that.

  • 1) Kentucky is a conservative state.
  • 2) The rest of the country doesn’t want to wait around for McConnell to be up for reelection – or a Democratic majority in the Senate– to implement healthcare.
  • 3) You can point to Trump’s impeachment trial as proof that a plan relying on McConnell doing anything other than maximizing every ounce of leverage in a partisan way is doomed to failure.
  • 4) Look at the Iowa caucus, the Affordable Care Act, and the failed wars on drugs, poverty, and terror; what has the US government done to demonstrate they can manage something as complex and high-stakes as nationalized healthcare. They haven’t shown us any evidence of that in a couple of decades now, so it’s a fair concern.

I’d also consider hitting Bernie on his perpetuation of the Russiagate nonsense, but that would require a DNC-loyal moderate admitting to how dishonest and overblown that neo-McCarthyist scam has been. It might be worth it to score points with his base.

You could even point out how Sanders has failed to condemn the neoliberal establishment’s appalling treatment of Tulsi Gabbard, a rising superstar in the party before she stood up to Clinton on Bernie’s behalf in 2016. Of course, that would require a candidate willing to acknowledge the Congresswoman’s existence and her mistreatment at the hands of the DNC and media.

Now, the Sanders campaigns massive team of top-notch surrogates, organizers, and strategists will be that-much-more careful every step of the way. The party will either run out of ways to tip the scales or be forced to get really obvious about rigging the primaries.

Iowa alone radicalized many Sanders supporters into being “Bernie or Bust;” if Tom Perez, Hillary Clinton, and CNN push much harder, they will be handing four more years at the White House to Donald Trump.

A Klobuchar Klobberin’ is Coming

After the New Hampshire primary, it’s going to look like Pete Buttigieg is the frontrunner to win the Democratic nomination. He may even retain his lead through Nevada – but this illusion of viability will not survive South Carolina.

Online Sportsbook Buttigieg DNC Nomination Odds
Bovada +450
SportsBetting +600
BetOnline +600
888Sport +550

After the New Hampshire primary, it’s going to look like Pete Buttigieg is the frontrunner to win the Democratic nomination. He may even retain his lead through Nevada – but this illusion of viability will not survive South Carolina.

Popularity amongst affluent liberals, corporate donors, and Wall St., isn’t going to cut it on Super Tuesday or in the general election. And, no matter how hard he tries, Mayor Pete is never going to garner much support from African American and Latino voters. His history with those communities is too negative; he’s made too many “mistakes” — all of which seemed to enforce systemic racism.

The candidate I’m expecting to take a sizable chunk out of Buttigieg’s base in the near future is Amy Klobuchar.

While still a DNC-approved moderate, the Minnesota Senator at least comes across as sincere and principled (even if we don’t agree on much politically), particularly on the debate stage.

Amy always receives high praise for her debate performances. Now, with Joe Biden slipping in the polls and Mayor Pete either looking like a CIA-backed cheat after Iowa, or a candidate with enormous vulnerabilities with minority voters – depending on who you ask about him – Democrats are going to need another strong moderate to contend with Bernie.

My Prediction:

Amy Klobuchar leap-frogs both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren between now and Super Tuesday.

In the meantime, I’m fading Pete Buttigieg all the way.

He’s playing his part by muddying up the first two or three states and blocking Bernie Sanders’s momentum, but he’s not a candidate built for the long haul.

All the Mayor is here to do is derail real progressives and cash in on an appointment — either to the nominee’s cabinet or within the DNC — at the end; for which the oddsmakers do not set betting lines.

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Will Cormier / Author

Will Cormier is a sports and political betting writer living in downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. When he’s not wandering around the streets of the Arts District aimlessly, a lifetime of pessimism and paranoia has made Will perfectly suited for handicapping politics. Cormier tries to analyze current events as objectively as possible – a strategy that often enrages loyalists on both the right and the left. When he’s not covering major upcoming elections, Will enjoys writing about basketball, football, and MMA from a betting perspective. He also loves dogs, ice cream sundaes, the movie “Stomp the Yard,” and long walks on the beach.

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