There are a few different strategies that people use to handicap, pick, and bet on a mixed martial arts fight like the ones you see inside the Octagon at a UFC event.
You can try to get out ahead of the majority of the betting market, or you can wait to see the line movement and make your final decision with more information. Do you want the cheaper price or do you want a more informed decision regarding your purchase?
You can buy this brand Toyota Camry for 15,000 dollars, and you think, wow, my wife and I have a baby on the way. This sounds like a great investment. What a great discount! It’s like half of the car is free! I got news for you folks and if you don’t know this already, you’ve only been ignorant. There’s nothing free in this world. Everything has a price, even if that cost might not be money. The seller pushes you to sign quickly because you could lose this great deal, so you do. Then, after taking a step back and doing some digging, you find that the car was built not just on any Friday but Black Friday. Toyota doesn’t make many lemons but when they do, they sell them for half price and screw you worse than before. I don’t know if this is true, but what a crappy deal that would be. The point is that fool’s gold is out there.
This wasn’t a big fight but take Phil Rowe vs Gabe Green a couple of weeks ago, for example. I thought Rowe was on the proper side of a 60/40 fight and that the betting market would agree with me. So, I tipped Rowe at even money, thinking he would be (-150) by fight time and then we would have a nice 10% edge on the books.
It played out to be a close contest. Rowe was the more technical guy in there and the far superior grappler, but his bird legs simply could not hold up to a very good athlete throwing all of bodyweight into them.
Whether or not you believe that Rowe still wins 6 of 10 times, we still made a mistake here because we predicted the market incorrectly.
We can also be on the right side of the market prediction and line movement but then lose the play. That happened when we got Kamaru Usman at (+160) to win a decision against Gilbert Burns and the betting line by fight time was nearly even.
— UFC (@ufc) February 14, 2021
Kamaru, of course, put him away in the third round, and we came up short there. I thought a lot more money was going to come in on Kelvin Gastelum to defeat Ian Heinisch so I tipped Kelvin weeks prior to the event at (-205), but there he was sitting exactly in the same spot.
That was a clean win for Gastelum and he showed us that he takes 7 if not 8 out of ten against Ian Heinisch. It isn’t that Ian is that many levels below Kelvin. He is at least one level, but the way these two matched up, there wasn’t really a path to victory for Heinisch.
— UFC (@ufc) February 14, 2021
So, when is the best time to make your bet? Early, late, or mid-fight week?
The answer is that it depends on many factors, one of those being your ability to handicap a fight effectively. We obviously want to maximize our profits and to do that, we have to take advantage of every opportunity that we can.
A wise man once said that life is about opportunity. We could sit here and make great arguments for life being about family, hard work, or excellence, sure, but I believe that opportunity trumps all.
Pardon the halfway hectic hullabaloo, but this stuff gets my blood moving better than the Black Beast who gave me an adrenaline shot and kept me up until 3. At least somebody got some decent sleep on Saturday night. Sorry, Curtis.
We can also get ahead of some line movement with undeniable value. I have a fight and a prediction for you today that will most likely add some weight to your current bankroll.
The betting odds are from BetOnline.AG this week. They are such an outstanding online book and almost always have the best betting odds available for both the dogs and favorites for MMA fights.
Amanda Lemos (-150) vs Livinha Souza (+130)
These are two tough Brazilian women but I certainly feel one is much more skilled than the other.
Amanda Lemos is a dark horse and we were on her in her last fight against the tiny Japanese technician, Mizuki Inoue.
Amanda is a former performance enhancer who, instead of trying to maintain the extra muscle, cut down not one but two weight classes to 115. I think that’s a great move if you can make it happen.
Amanda looked tremendous in her Strawweight debut opposite Amanda Granger getting the rear naked choke just 3:43 into the first round.
Livinha Souza juuuuusst barely came through for us when we picked her as a favorite to take out Ashley Yoder. I was regretting the bet during the fight because of how closely it was playing out, but the Brazilian secured the decision with a strong third round.
Souza has a solid record of, but her other two wins inside of the Octagon came against a couple of ladies in Sarah Frota and Alex Chambers, who are no longer with the organization. The Brazilian Gangsta Souza does have the ability to make it ugly in there, but I don’t think she has the athleticism or power to take her game to the next level.
Amanda has her on those two attributes as well as technical striking, and that’s where I think this fight will play out. If Amanda gets the takedown, she will have to deal with the armbar attempt as most women do.
Ladies have more lower body strength than upper body, plus wider hips to use as a fulcrum as they leverage the elbow down and go for the tap. Souza doesn’t really lack physicality but speed and athleticism, she does, and this is especially true against Amanda Lemos.
Souza is a little bit younger than her opponent at 29 years old and slightly more experienced fighting inside of the Octagon, but the tape is the tape.
After watching tape on both women, there is a clear skill and athletic advantage that goes to the favorite here, and at only (-150), I think you have to take it. Even if she doesn’t win, I think this line will move to (-200) and maybe upwards of (-240) or so.
No other fights jump off the page at me. Sure, I have my leans for UFC 259, but we are still a couple of weeks away, and the point of today’s article was to jump on the most valuable betting odds early.
Amanda Lemos is a fighter I believe in, if you couldn’t tell already, and Livinha Souza has a pretty low ceiling. I think she beats the girls she is supposed to like the Ashley Yoders and Sarah Frotas of the world, but against fast and powerful fighters like Brianna Van Buren and Amanda Lemos, I think she will struggle.
Hey, even if Livinha pulls this one out, at least we can say we were in on a stock and bought our shares before it shot up by 50% or more.
Leslie put her away viciously with elbows on the feet. That’s what happens when you think you’re hot stuff and gas in your debut against a dangerous striker.
Livinha is not a natural 135 pounder like Smith, nor does she have the level of striking or power, so I absolutely love Lemos here.
Sometimes we wait on a betting line, but this is NOT one of those cases. Bet directly from this article, and I love the value of this line all the way up to (-220)!