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FanDuel PGA Picks – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

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The PGA Tour remains out west for this year’s installment of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The field is loaded once again, with nine of the top 25 golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings taking a swing at things. The marquee name in the field is Dustin Johnson, the current #3 golfer in the rankings.

This is another early season event which has a bit of a twist. There are 156 golfers on the docket, but cuts won’t be taking place until after round three. The top 60 plus ties will move onto Sunday from that point. That means we could be looking at some inflated fantasy scoring this weekend.

As always, we’ll begin our research by taking a gander at how the oddsmakers see things playing out. Here are the five current favorites to win the event.

  • Dustin Johnson +500
  • Jason Day +800
  • Jordan Spieth +1800
  • Matt Kuchar +2000
  • Tony Finau +2000

Beyond the top five on the odds chart, there is a bottleneck of choices right behind them with odds in the range of +2200 to +4000. We should be in line for a competitive and interesting tour stop, especially when you factor in the three-day cut line.

Looking back at recent winners, we find a mix of big names and golfers who tend to fly under the radar. A number of those with favorable odds this time around have had success here in the past, as have some golfers on the lower end of the salary spectrum. Here are the last five winners of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am for your reference.

  • 2018: Ted Potter Jr.
  • 2017: Jordan Spieth
  • 2016: Vaughn Taylor
  • 2015: Brandt Snedeker
  • 2014: Jimmy Walker

We’ll keep the odds and past performance at this event at the top of the mind while building out our lineups, as well as recent form. As always, choices abound at each price point, but we’ll have to dig deep for value to fit in in as many of our projected top performers as possible. Here are our favorite FanDuel choices at each price tier, starting with the most expensive golfers of the week.

Cream of the Crop

Dustin Johnson – $12,400

  • Odds to win: +500
  • Odds to Top 10: -500
  • FPPG: 88.4

Johnson competed and won at the Saudi International event last week. He’s back on the PGA Tour this time around for the first time since the Sentry in early January. At that event, Johnson carded a 15-under and finished in a tie for 4th place, which was good enough for 120 fantasy points. He has a great history at this tour stop, finishing in a tie for 2nd place last time around. The most expensive golfer of the week will make for an excellent anchor for DFS lineups.

Jason Day – $11,700

  • Odds to win: +800
  • Odds to Top 10: -110
  • FPPG: 94.7

Day has appeared in five tour events this season. He has finished in the top 11 each time. His last time out was at the Farmers Insurance Open when he shot 14-under, finishing in a tie for 5th place and with 112.9 fantasy points. That was his second straight outing in which he produced 100+ points. Day also has a great history here, finishing up in a tie for 2nd place last year. Day looks to be in exceptional form, and he’s another pricey golfer to keep on the short list as a result.

Phil Mickelson – $11,300

  • Odds to win: +2500
  • Odds to Top 10: +250
  • FPPG: 92.5

Mickelson shot really well in his first two events of the season, but we can’t say the same about his performance at the Phoenix Open. He missed the cut while finishing up with a 1-over through two rounds, which left him in a tie for 83rd place. Mickelson finished in a tie for 2nd at the Desert Classic and dropped 159.7 fantasy points prior to that. We like him to bounce back and return to form in an event in which he was part of the logjam at 2nd last time around.

Brandt Snedeker – $10,900

  • Odds to win: +4500
  • Odds to Top 10: +500
  • FPPG: 71.4

Snedeker didn’t shoot the lights out during the four events he participated in for the month of January. While he made the cut in all four, his highest finish was a tie for 16th at the Sony Open. He produced 98.7 fantasy points for that outing, but he was in the ‘60s for the other three tour stops. Perhaps a return to the stop in which he has finished in the Top 20 over the past two years and won outright in 2015 will spark a better performance.

Jordan Spieth – $10,800

  • Odds to win: +1800
  • Odds to Top 10: +220
  • FPPG: 55.7

Spieth hasn’t looked good this tour season. He has missed the cut in two of four events, but he looked a little bit better at the Farmers while finishing up in a tie for 35th place. Spieth’s recent performance has led to his salary being depressed on FanDuel, so it may be time to jump on him in advance of the expected bounce back. We all know his talent level, and we won this event back in 2017. Oddsmakers are giving him a good chance for a nice outing this weekend, and we concur.

Mid-Range Noisemakers

Matthew Fitzpatrick – $9,700

  • Odds to win: +4000
  • Odds to Top 10: +400
  • FPPG: 52

This will be Fitzpatrick’s first tour event since October’s World Golf Championships, where he finished up in a tie for 54th. That opens up some risk, but he did have a solid appearance at the Hong Kong Open a little while back. Oddsmakers have placed him on our radar, as he has the best odds to win of any sub-$10k golfer this week, so he’s worth consideration for taking a flyer on.

Russell Knox – $9,200

  • Odds to win: +6000
  • Odds to Top 10: +600
  • FPPG: 66.4

Knox has been in the field for the last four tour stops, and he saved his best recent outing for last. He shot 10-under at the Phoenix, which was good enough for a tie for 10th place and 83.1 fantasy points. He appeared here last year after skipping the 2017 event and finished up in 15th place. Knox has delivered 74+ fantasy points in his last three events, and we’re expecting more of the same this week.

Scott Piercy – $9,100

  • Odds to win: +6600
  • Odds to Top 10: +650
  • FPPG: 83.3

Piercy finished 20th here last year, and his recent form has been solid. He has made the cut in his last eight events and delivered 75+ fantasy points in each while doing so. Last time out at the Phoenix, he shot 8-under and finished up in a tie for 20th place. Piercy looks like a solid bet to make the cut, and recent form suggests he could be in line for a solid finish.

Jimmy Walker – $8,900

  • Odds to win: +10000
  • Odds to Top 10: +900
  • FPPG: 62.5

Walker had a dreadful Farmers Insurance Open, missing the cut entirely and winding up in a tie for 154th. He was much better at the Phoenix, finishing in a tie for 44th and with 77.1 fantasy points. Walker finished 8th here last year and in the Top 25 in four of the last five years. Perhaps a return to a stop in which he has had success will inspire an improved performance.

Ted Potter – $8,600

  • Odds to win: +12000
  • Odds to Top 10: +1100
  • FPPG: 66.8

Potter hasn’t done a ton this season, with his best finish being a tie for 13th at the Sony. He has made the cut in five of seven events and finished in the Top 15 twice. While that doesn’t exactly rev our engines, the fact that he was the outright winner here last year does. That doesn’t guarantee success this time around, but it does make Potter an affordable golfer to consider.

Value Plays to Consider

Kevin Streelman – $8,300

  • Odds to win: +12000
  • Odds to Top 10: +1100
  • FPPG: 50.6

Streelman’s recent form leaves a lot to be desired, as he has only made the cut in four of eight events this season. His best fantasy performance came at the Desert when he finished in a tie for 34th with 103.7 points. He has had success here in recent years with Top 20 finishes for his last three appearances.

Doug Ghim – $8,200

  • Odds to win: +9000
  • Odds to Top 10: +900
  • FPPG: 60.1

What’s to like about Ghim, a golfer who has never appeared at this tour stop? Recent form and decent odds will do it, as those are two of the factors which help us decipher which bargain bin plays are worth a whirl. Ghim finished up in a tie for 20th at the Phoenix, good enough for a cool 96.4 fantasy points.

Trey Mullinax – $8,000

  • Odds to win: +10000
  • Odds to Top 10: +900
  • FPPG: 59.4

Mullinax is sticking out like a sore thumb on the odds chart as well. He finished up in 47th here last year and in 14th back in 2017. He has been shooting well to boot with three consecutive finishes in the top 35. Mullinax has made the cut in his last five events, and we’re banking on him doing the same here.

Ryan Armour – $7,900

  • Odds to win: +16000
  • Odds to Top 10: +1300
  • FPPG: 72.3

As per usual, the pickings are slim under $8,000 on the salary scale. Recent course history points us to Armour, who finished up in 20th at this event last year. His recent form isn’t great, but he did finish up in a tie for 22nd at the Sony a few weeks back.

Brandon Harkins – $7,600

  • Odds to win: +20000
  • Odds to Top 10: +1000
  • FPPG: 58.9

Our favorite choice in the sub-$8k tier is Harkins, who delivered 94.7 fantasy points at the Phoenix while finishing in a tie for 26th. No promises he can turn that trick again, but he did finish up in 15th place at this event last year.

Our Favorite Picks

Jordan Spieth – $10,800:
Johnson and Day will get the most attention in DFS circles, and we’ll find a way to work one or both in as well. However, we’re most intrigued by Spieth, a golfer who is far too talented not to turn things around before too long.
Scott Piercy – $9,100:
Recent form points to the potential for a real solid showing this weekend. His 20th place finish at this stop last year bolsters our enthusiasm. Piercy is our top choice in the $9-$10k range for this week’s lineups.
Trey Mullinax – $8,000:
Solid recent form, decent odds, and a bargain basement price. What’s not to love about Mullinax this week? There are plenty of ways to save some coin, but we’ll lean on Mullinax to provide our lineups with a ton of flexibility.

*Betting odds provided by: MyBookie.ag