The Four Over/Under Picks for This Weekend’s Divisional Playoffs

Over-under Bets for NFL Divisional Round

  • Burrow, Bengals can peel back the OVER vs. Titans
  • Packers’ chances rely on controlling the 49ers’ rushing attack
  • Brady-Stafford set for dual as Los Angeles invades Tampa Bay
  • Dual II: Mahomes vs. Allen for the fourth time in two years

Check out our NFL betting picks to find out everything about this weekend NFL divisional round.

Cincinnati Bengals (11-7) at Tennessee Titans (12-5)

  • Time: 1:30PM PST – 3:30PM CST – 4:30PM EST
  • Place: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
  • TV: CBS

The Series:

This is a battle between two of the old AFC Central rivals as the Titans and the then-Houston Oilers host a 40-34-1 lead in the series. After clinching the AFC North for the first time since 2015, the Bengals are looking to get back into the AFC Championship game for the first time since 1988. The Titans clinched the AFC South for the second consecutive season and they won 12 regular-season games for the first time since 2008. Mike Vrabel’s squad looks for its second AFC Championship game in the last three seasons.

Last Time Out:

The Bengals held off a late Las Vegas Raiders charge as Germaine Pratt picked off Derek Carr on the Bengals’ two-yard line with 15 seconds remaining. Joe Burrow completed 24-of-34 passes for 244 yards and two touchdowns while Ja’Marr Chase snatched nine passes for 116 yards for the Bengals. The Bengals opened a 20-6 lead midway through the second quarter when Burrow found Tyler Boyd on a 10-yard scoring toss that capped a 12-ply, 82-yard drive.

The Titans secured the first No. 1 seed and a bye in the history of the franchise, which dates back to the old AFC. The 12 regular-season wins were the most for the Titans since they posted 13 in 2008. Tennessee is the first team to gain a top seed without a 1,000-yard rusher or a 1,000-yard receiver since the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 (-110) +165 O 47.5 (-110)
Tennessee Titans -3.5 (-110) -190 U 47.5 (-110)

When the Bengals Have the Ball:

Cincinnati Bengals LogoThe dynamics of this team are on full display when you consider that it is the only team in NFL history to post a 4,000-yard passer (Burrow), a 1,000-yard rusher (Joe Mixon), and two 1,000-yard receivers (Chase and Boyd). Burrow has been on fire in the clutch for Cincinnati as he has passed for 1,725 yards with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions in the last five games.

It’s the NFL’s seventh-best pass offense vs. a Titans pass defense that finished 24th in the league in allowing 245.2 yards per game. Tennessee intercepted 16 passes on the season with safety Kevin Byard accounting for five of those. Cincinnati scored 27.1 points as the Bengals were seventh in the NFL in scoring offense while the Titans were sixth in giving up 20.8 points per game.

When the Titans Have the Ball:

Tennessee Titans LogoRunning back Derrick Henry is expected back for the Titans as he went down on Oct. 31 with an ankle injury as he finished the season with 937 yards in eight games still led the NFL with 117.1 yards rushing per game for the third consecutive season. Henry also had 10 rushing touchdowns for the fourth consecutive season. It will be interesting to see Henry’s game shape as Cincinnati ranks fifth in rushing defense as they give up 102.5 yards per game.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill led Tennessee with 3,734 yards and 21 touchdown passes as he is the only quarterback in the NFL with seven rushing touchdowns in each of the last two seasons. Pass rusher Trey Hendrickson is all set as coach Zach Taylor said on Thursday that he cleared the injury report and is ready to go for the Bengals.

  • The UNDER has been the call in 4 of the Bengals last 6 games
  • The Bengals have accentuated the UNDER in 4 of 8 non-AFC North games
  • Last week was Tennessee’s only OVER in the last 5 games
  • Tennessee has been UNDER in 7 of its 9 home games this season

Why Bet the OVER 47.5

Obviously, Tennessee will look at trying to dominate time of possession in establishing Henry while keeping Burrow and the potency of his weapons off of the field. This is the key part of the game plan for the Titans if they are to win.

The Titans’ defense is stellar against the run as well as it gives up only 84,6 yards per game (2nd/NFL) and has given up only 52.8 yards rushing in the last five games. Burrow will have to be sharp and he will be as this feels like a back and forth game all afternoon. Bengals (+3.5) 28, Titans 26.

San Francisco 49ers (11-7) at Green Bay Packers (13-4)

  • Time: 1:25PM PST – 3:25PM CST – 4:25PM EST
  • Place: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
  • TV: Fox

The Series:

Two teams with rich and successful playoff histories as the 49ers check in with a 33-21 playoffs record while the Packer are posted at 36-24. The two teams are deadlocked at 4-4 in playoff meetings as the 49ers have won the last three. These two teams have combined for nine Super Bowl championships and 18 NFL championships.

The two teams met in Week 3 in San Francisco as the Packers took a 30-28 decision in San Francisco. Aaron Rodgers rallied the Packers in the last minute of the game as Mason Crosby hit a walk-off field goal from 51 yards out. Davante Adams had 12 catches for 132 yards. San Francisco trailed 17-0 as the Niners trailed the entire evening until Kyle Juszczyk caught a 12-yard TD pass from Jimmy Garoppolo with 37 seconds remaining and the extra point gave the 49ers a 28-27 lead.

The weather in Green Bay is set for a high of 20 degrees with no snow in the forecast.

Last Time Out:

San Francisco won the hearts and love of everyone who is not a Cowboys fan as they dismissed the, once again, most overrated team in the NFL, 23-17. The 49ers led 23-7 after three quarters and had to hold off a late Dallas rally. San Francisco had to weather another Jimmy G interception at an inopportune time as they were up 13 in the fourth quarter and had started to drive before the pick. San Francisco’s ground game was the difference as they chewed up the Cowboys’ defense with 169 yards rushing on 38 carries.

Green Bay prepped as it received the No. 1 seed and the bye in the NFC.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
San Francisco 49ers +6 (EV) +200 O 47 (-110)
Green Bay Packers -6 (-120) -240 U 47 (-110)

When the 49ers Have the Ball:

San Francisco 49ers LogoSan Francisco’s rushing attack is at an all-time high right now as Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel are at the controls of 127.4 yards rushing per game (7th/NFL). Samuel had 110 yards from scrimmage last week while posting a TD on the ground. Mitchell led the rushing attack with 96 yards on 27 carries and he set the franchise rookie record with yards from scrimmage at 1,110.

San Francisco can’t afford Garoppolo to have these inopportune interceptions and turnovers as they dodged a huge bullet when he left Dallas in the game with that pick last week in the fourth quarter. Jimmy G has thrown five interceptions and two touchdown passes in the 49ers’ last three games. The Packers’ defense against the run checks in at 109.1 rushing yards per game (11th/NFL). It held the Vikings and Lions to 27 and 99 yards in its last two games, but gave up 219 yards to the Browns in Week 16.

When the Packers Have the Ball:

Green Bay Packers LogoAaron Rodgers had a solid season as Green Bay in passing for 37 touchdowns vs. four interceptions. He and Davante Adams can carry Green Bay on a three-game run to a Super Bowl championship, but it’s first things first with a 49ers defense that allows only 206.5 passing yards per game.

Rodgers faces a Niners’ pass rush led by Nick Bosa, who tallied 15.5 sacks on the season as he forced four fumbles and had 32 quarterback hits. Fred Warner led San Francisco in tackles with 137 and he had three fumble recoveries. Warner and Bosa should be good to go on Sunday as both are nursing nagging injuries.

  • The UNDER has been the call in 5 of the 49ers’ last 6 games.
  • The UNDER has been the play for San Francisco in 7 of the 12 non-NFC West games.
  • Green Bay has gone OVER in 6 of the last 7 games.
  • The Packers are 3-4-0 on covering the OVER as a home favorite.

Why Bet the UNDER 47

Like Tennessee, San Francisco is looking to control the clock and get first downs and proliferate drives with Mitchell and Samuel, who is a solid threat to score from anywhere on the field. Rodgers-to-Adams is a threat as we pretty much know San Francisco will throw double coverages on Adams to try to make another receiver beat them in the passing game. The Niners only posted nine interceptions all season so corners Emmanuel Moseley and Josh Norman will be on call all afternoon. Packers 24, 49ers (+5.5) 20.

Los Angeles Rams (13-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-4)

  • Time: 12:00PM PST – 2:00PM CST – 3:00PM EST
  • Place: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa FL
  • TV: NBC

The Series:

These two teams have seen a lot of each other in recent seasons as they have played the last three with the Rams winning two of those meetings, including a 34-24 decision this season. Los Angeles has won seven out of the last eight games against the Buccaneers and has a 16-9 lead in the series. The two squads have met twice in the playoffs – both in the NFC Championship. The victories belong to the Rams as they took an 11-6 win in St. Louis in 2000 and a 9-0 win at the ‘Big Sombrero” in Tampa in 1979.

In Week 3, Rams QB Matt Stafford and Tom Brady had a tremendous dual as Brady threw for 432 yards and Stafford posted 343. The difference was Stafford’s four touchdown passes as LA took a 14-7 lead on a 2-yard toss from Brady to Cooper Kupp at the end of the first quarter and never trailed again.

Last Time Out:

Los Angeles took apart the Arizona Cardinals, 34-11, on Monday Night Football as the Rams jumped to a 21-0 halftime lead and were never threatened in the game. The Rams defense held Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray to a career-low 137 passing yards and they picked Murray off twice. David Long, Jr., had a three-yard interception return of a desperation throw out of the end zone from Murray just before halftime.

Tampa Bay rolled to a 31-0 lead over the Philadelphia Eagles after one quarter as Tom Brady threw a two-yard touchdown pass to Rob Gronkowski and a 36-yard strike to Mike Evans. With Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay had solid contributions from the running game as Keyshawn Vaughn and Giovani Bernard each rushed for a touchdown inside of a running attack that netted 106 yards on 31 carries.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Los Angeles Rams +3 (-120) +130 O 48 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (EV) -150 U 48 (-110)

When Rams Have the Ball:

Los Angeles Rams LogoStafford has been interception-prone throughout the latter portals of the season, but he got his act together in the win over the Cardinals with the two TD passes and no picks.

The Rams took advantage of their matchups vs. the Buccaneers’ secondary in the win in Week 3, so the key is the Tampa Bay pass rush – which tallied 47 sacks on the season – and it should ignite the team with so many players now back from injury. Lavonte David and Sean Murphy-Bunting were the only two defenders of consequence on the injury report on Thursday.

When the Buccaneers have the Ball:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers LogoThe scenario is the same for the Los Angeles defense as the Rams know they have to come with pressure on Tom Brady as they had 50 sacks this season and 12.5 by Aaron Donald. Taylor App and Jalen Ramsey had four interceptions each as Los Angeles tallied 19.

Brady became only the third quarterback since 1991 to lead the NFL in passing yards, completions, attempts, and passing TDs in a single season. Mike Evans vs. Jalen Ramsey should be a key matchup on Sunday as Evans caught nine passes for 117 yards last season.

  • The Rams are 4-4-0 on the O/U over the last half of the season.
  • The Rams are 7-4-1 with the OVER not the next game after a win.
  • Tampa Bay has covered the UNDER in 3 of its last 5 games.
  • The Buccaneers have seen the UNDER in 8 of 13 games against NFC competition.

Why Bet the OVER 48

The passing dual between these quarterbacks will be must-see TV with the history of the dual in Week 3 and the potential to have this happen again. Odell Beckham, Jr. wasn’t playing with the Rams the last time they play, so how the Buccaneers have to account for him alongside Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson will be an interesting strategy from Buccaneers’ defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Buccaneers (-2.5) 34, Rams 30 as the two teams eradicate the OVER.

Buffalo Bills (12-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-5)

  • Time: 3:40PM PST – 5:40PM CST – 6:40PM EST
  • Place: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
  • TV: CBS

The Series:

The two squads are an even 2-2 in playoffs history as the Chiefs boasted a 38-24 decision in last season’s AFC championship game. Buffalo leads the all-time series, 25-21-1, with Kansas City winning two of the last three games as this is the fourth meeting in the last two seasons.

Buffalo’s 38-20 win in Week 5 was highlighted by 315 yards and three touchdown passes from Josh Allen, who also scored once on the ground in rushing for 11 carries for 59 yards. He hit Emmanuel Sanders on a 35-yard TD pass and threw a 53-yard scoring strike to tight end Dawson Know as the Bills rolled up a 24-13. Micah Hyde cut out the Chiefs’ lights with a 26-yard pick-six in the third quarter.

Last Time Out:

Buffalo wasted little time in posting four touchdowns on its first four drives as the Bills toyed with the New England Patriots, 47-17. Allen found Knox on TD throws of eight and 11 yards. Devin Singletary provided the balance in the Bills’ attack as he carried the ball 18 times for 81 yards and two touchdowns.

Kansas City blasted Pittsburgh, 42-21, behind 404 yards and five touchdown passes from QB Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs took a 21-7 lead on a touchdown pass from Mahomes to tight end Travis Kelce just before halftime. He hit Nick Allegretti and Tyreek Hill for two more TDs in the first six minutes of the third quarter.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Buffalo Bills +2 (-110) +110 O 54 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs -2 (-110) -130 U 54 (-110)

When the Bills Have the Ball:

Buffalo Bills LogoNow seems like the time for Josh Allen and these Buffalo Bills as he has seven TD passes and no interceptions in his last two games. Allen surveys a Kansas City pass defense that gives up 251.4 yards per game (26th/NFL) and will try to replicate the earlier success with Stefan Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Dawson Knox in the passing game.

It feels like it’s time for a major break-out game from Diggs. He only has one game of over 100 yards this season, but he finished with 1,225 yards on 103 catches with 10 TDs.

When the Chiefs Have the Ball:

Kansas City Chiefs LogoMahomes became only the third QB in history to throw five touchdown passes in multiple playoff games. He faces a Buffalo defense that is No. 1 in the NFL against the pass (163.0 ypg) and also No. 1 overall (272 ypg). Mahomes threw for 272 yards and two TDs in the Week 5 loss.

As Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce get most of the attention of defenses, Mecole Hardman, with his speed, could have a big day as a third receiver. Kelce tied for the NFL lead among tight ends with nine TD catches. Hill had 172 yards on nine catches vs. the Bills in the 2020 AFC Championship game.

  • The Rams are 4-4-0 on the O/U over the last half of the season.
  • Kansas City has covered the OVER in its last 6 games.
  • The Chiefs are 10-3-0 with the OVER in conference play.
  • Buffalo has been UNDER in 2 of its last 3 games.
  • The Bills are only 6-9-0 on the OVER as a favorite.

Why Bet the OVER 54

With the potential of these two offenses and the quarterback play from Allen and Mahomes, you have to take the OVER as you evaluate the scores and play-by-play of the recent three games. Kansas City has won nine out of its last ten games with the Bills winning five in a row. Buffalo is averaging 31.4 points per game over its last five games while Kansas City is posting 35.4 points in their last five.

The OVER is easy in this game at 54, but the pick is tough. Kansas City has the home-field advantage, they seem to have the Bills’ number in the playoffs and when the chips may look down, Mahomes delivers. Chiefs (-2) 35, Bills 32.

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Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.

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