Fury FC 58 Full Card Betting Picks and MMA Breakdown

We’re covering fourteen fights with available odds on this massive 18 fight Fury FC 58 card. Betting picks are limited to money lines, as no prop bets have been announced. Many of these fighters have less than five fights, losing records, and lopsided, record padding bouts headed their way. It’s an exciting card for sports better and we’re breaking down expert MMA analysis on each pick, starting with the main event. 
This Sunday, February 27th, 2022 on UFC Fight Pass, place your bets to finish off a weekend of MMA action. We called big fights like Bellator’s Mousasi over Vanderford, and we’re hoping to do it again with Fury FC 58.  

Fury FC 58 Main Event: Austen Lane vs Eric Lunsford 

Our heavyweight main event gives us the return of Austen Lane. Lane is a former NFL player who’s never had a fight go to decision, he either gets knocked out or knocks them out. 
He faces Eric Lunsford, another fighter that will either finish or be finished. 

Tale of the Tape for Lane vs Lunsford 

Fighter Austen Lane  Eric Lunsford 
Money Line  -500 +375
Age 34 32
Height 6’6’ 6’3’’
Reach 80’’ NA
Record 10-3 6-3
Submissions/TKO   1/9 0/5
Losses via Sub/TKO 0/3 1/2
Fighter Training Camp Bulldog Boxing  X-treme Boxing

Lane was a +105 favorite in his loss to Greg Hardy at DWCS. He was a +600 underdog in his win over Juan Adams last November. Lunsford was the underdog against both Odoms and Adams, ranging from +195 to +425. Adams finished him with groundwork, but Odoms fell short and was knocked out in the first round. 

Lunsford also has professional kickboxing and boxing experience, racking up a total of five knockouts across seven bouts. 
Lane is the bigger man, but his game is lacking. Bulldog boxing doesn’t seem to have much of a ground game developed for him, and he’s repeatedly fallen victim to ground strikes, even against clear underdogs like Cameron Graham in 2020. 

Fight Tape Analysis

Lane is still sloppy and wide open, despite his athleticism. Lunsford has tight kickboxing despite his lack of conditioning. While conditioning will win fights in most scenarios, heavyweight is a weight class where anyone can be king so long as they can land strikes, and Lane can’t land anything.
Many of his fights are ground strike finishes in spite of his boxing centered training. I think this fight is a coin toss, which man will land flush first? For that, my betting pick is Eric Lunsford. He doesn’t show any technical disadvantages to Lane, and since it’s 50/50 I may as well bet on the fighter with a four times return on my money. Bet Lunsford Money line at +375 at betonline.ag. 

Fury FC 58 Co Main Event: Evan Cutts vs Adam Smith 

Our co-main is between two welterweight fighters. Cutts is on a winning streak, but since 2017 Smith has refocused his grappling career, going 2-2 in pro grappling matches at Submission Underground. 

Tale of the Tape for Evan Cutts vs Adam Smith 

Fighter Evan Cutts  Adam Smith 
Money Line  -400 +300
Age 31 32
Height 6’1’’ 5’9’’
Reach 76’’ NA
Record 12-5 11-9
Submissions/TKO   7/0 6/1
Losses via Sub/TKO 0/1 4/1
Fighter Training Camp Fitness Fight Factory  Spokane Valley BJJ, Logic BJJ

Cutts is a strong favorite and the bigger fighter. He looks to have a significant reach advantage as well. Smith has dropped from 185 to 170 over the past few years, and many of his losses come from being too small for the weight class. 
I don’t see Cutts getting the easy submission win. Smith is a BJJ black belt and spends most of his training time grappling. 
I want to see if Evan can wina  stand up battle, but the fight tape doesn’t support that outcome. Evan is the BJJ coach at Fitness Fight, and the striking there leaves plenty to be desired. His jab is long but his head is on the centerline and he’s unable to dodge punches in any capacity. His bout with Brian Grinnell showed excellent BJJ, but terrible grappling and striking. 

Adam Smith’s Last Three Years

Smith has had the last three years of MMA off. He did excellent against Roberto Jimenez in grappling, one of the best BJJ guys on the planet today. He’s committed to a new striking coach, and he looks to be in peak physical condition. 

I see another upset. Our betting pick is Adam Smith Money Line at +300, a three times return on your wager. 

Fury FC 58 Main Card: Justin Scoggins vs Levi Mowies 

Ex-UFC fighter Scoggins is 1-1 since leaving the promotion. He looks to rack up another win over Mowies, a student of Evan Cutts 

Tale of the Tape for Scoggins vs Mowies 

Fighter Justin Scoggins  Levi Mowies 
Money Line  +115 -145
Age 29 26
Height 5’7’’ 5’8’’
Reach 66’’ 70’’ 
Record 12-6 16-4
Submissions/TKO   1/6 7/4
Losses via Sub/TKO 4/0 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Revolution MMA Fitness Fight Factory 

Mowies is the younger, larger fighter. He’s racked up more MMA wins, primarily for LFA and Fury. Mowies has a better finishing percentage, but more impressive is Scoggins finishes over UFC level fighters. 

Scoggins biggest wins in the UFC would be fighters like Ray Borg, but overall, he went 4-5 for the promotion, and took plenty of damage along the way. His first bout in RIZIN showed him choked by 22-5 Yiki Motoya, a fight that had him at a -305 favorite. 
Mowies is on a six fight winning streak. He must cut serious weight to make the division, explaining his overpowering most opponents and losing decisions on occasion. 
Our betting pick is the favorite, Levi Mowies Money line at -145. He’s the better wrestler, the better athlete, and his winning streak should put Scoggins in the dust. 
Scoggins needs to consider a camp change, or at the very least some cross training. He’s reached a point in his career where analysts will need to see performance changes to bet on him in the future. 

Evers Anderson vs Mo Miller 

Miller is coming off the first loss of his career after a six year winning streak. He was an undefeated amature as well, but his wrestling gets him into trouble with the right kind of submission artist.

Tale of the Tape for Evers Anderson vs Mo Miller 

Fighter Evers Anderson Mo Miller 
Money Line  +425 -650
Age 36 29
Height 5’5’’ 5’8’’
Reach NA 72’’ 
Record 4-2 6-1
Submissions/TKO   0/1 1/3
Losses via Sub/TKO 0/0 1/0
Fighter Training Camp Mezger MMA  Strong Style Fight Team

Anderson is seven years the elder of Miller. Miller has a noticeable size and reach advantage, not what you want to see if you’re a striker. Evers has a kickboxing background, but in many cases is frustrated by an opponent’s reach advantage. 
Miller trains out of Strong Style, Ohio, home of UFC level fighters like Matt Brown and champion Stipe Miocic. Anderson trains at Guy Mezger’s MMA school. While it’s a quality program, it’s not producing fighters at the highest level. 
The training camp and physical advantages make Miller an easy pick. He’s looking for a fight to pad his already successful record, making sure that he doesn’t lose two in a row. He found the right opponent in Evers Anderson. Be the Miller money line at -650 for a $0.15 return per dollar wager. 

A Al-Selwady vs Nick Compton

Selwady is the Desert Force champion whose only weakness is the occasional knock out. Compton is on a major losing streak against quality fighters and Al-Selwady isn’t the comeback fight he’s hoping for. 

Tale of the Tape for Al-Selwady vs Compton 

Fighter Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady  ‘Pride of Palestine’  Nick Compton
Money Line  -350 +275
Age 26 40
Height 5’7’’ 5’10’’
Reach NA 70
Record 11-3 12-9
Submissions/TKO   2/7 6/2
Losses via Sub/TKO 0/3 1/1
Fighter Training Camp Fortis MMA Tiger Muay Thai 

Al-Selwady is younger and a much better ground fighter. He’s training full time at one of the top camps in the world at Fortis MMA. Compton is in Minnesota full time, and has been to Tiger Muay Thai but isn’t there full time. 

At 40, Compton has lost his last five fights. He’s also lost two boxing matches in that same time period. It looks like he’s a quality fighter whose days in the sport are numbered. Compton has been active since 2009. 

Selwady’s only weakness is getting knocked out on random occasions. Against fighters he should have otherwise beaten, he’ll get sent to space. So we’ve studied Compton’s fight tape to look for any signs that he can pull off the KO upset. 

Compton vs Breeden

In his last MMA bout, Compton looked like a classic boxer with the occasional leg kick, but nothing was dynamic or unexpected. His accuracy is quality, but his speed is clearly forty years old.
Our betting pick is the Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady money line at -350. Expect the rising fighter to get overwhelmed by the younger, stronger grappler. 

Cody Freeman vs Azjavkhlan Baataryn 

Freeman is another Fitness Fight fighter coming off a loss that ended a four fight winning streak. He faces Baataryn, a Mongolian fighter who’s switched to a team in Japan that’s greatly increased his BJJ abilities. 

Tale of the Tape for Freeman vs Baataryn

Fighter Cody Freeman  Azjavkhlan Baataryn
Money Line  -210 +170
Age 26 29
Height 5’9’’ 5’6’’
Reach 73’’ NA
Record 7-4 7-6
Submissions/TKO   4/1 1/3
Losses via Sub/TKO 1/0 3/0
Fighter Training Camp Fitness Fight Factory  CORE

Freeman is the bigger, younger fighter. He has more finishes but far fewer knockouts. Baataryn has been finished three times via submission, which is Freeman’s weapon of choice. I feel there is a possibility Baataryn has developed his BJJ recently after switching teams, so we’ll go to the fight tape to look for changes in his game. 

Fight Tape for Baataryn vs Freeman

Baataryn, while a good fighter, looks stiff and unathletic next to Freeman. Many of the knockouts are early stoppages, and I feel Freeman has the edge in nearly every category. Cody Freeman vs Devonaire Jones should give us a good look into what this fight will look like. 
Our betting pick is the Freeman money line -210, a $0.40 return per dollar wager. 

Devin Miller vs Gianni Vazquez 

Miller is the favorite in this bantamweight bout despite being unranked. Yet another Fitness Factory fighter takes on a better striker in Vazquez. 

Betting Odds and Pick for Miller vs Vazquez

Fighter Devin Miller  Gianni Vazquez 
Money Line  -140 +110

Vazquez is the underdog, going 1-1 in his last two. I feel that Miller’s main weakness is chin, like many of the Fitness Factory fighters, they’re defensive striking is not great. 
I’m betting the underdog Gianni Vazquez for a TKO or striking centered decision win, a +110 money line for a double your money underdog. 

Randy Villarreal vs Tyler Bialecki 

Villarreal is the favorite despite a 11-12 losing record. Bialecki is from Yuma MMA, a school with no other major fighters. 

Betting Odds and Pick Villarreal vs Bialecki 

Fighter Randy Villarreal Tyler Bialecki
Money Line  -145 +115

Bialecki is 1-5 of his last six. However, many of these losses are to quality fighters, like UFC champion Brandon Moreno. Bialecki may be getting an unfair shake. Same for Villarreal, who faced Ryan Benoit and Jimmy Flick back in 2012. 
Our betting pick is Randy Villarreal. He’s the better submission fighter and Tyler seems to have moderate wrestling at best. Bet the Villarreal money line at -145, but be tentative and bet lightly on this even match up. 

Juan Carlos De León vs Silas Lucas 

Leon is just three months out of a vicious knockout loss. He’s back against Lucas, a 4-0 knockout artist from Florida. 

Betting Odds and Pick for  Leon vs Lucas

Fighter Juan Carlos De Leon  Silas Lucas
Money Line  +190 -240

You don’t need to see much of Lucas’s fight tape to tell he’s a quality striker. From Genesis BJJ, I can assume his defensive wrestling is good, though we haven’t seen it. This kid can hit hard. Our betting pick is Silas Lucas at -240. Expect him to put Leon back to sleep; he came off of that knockout loss too quickly for my comfort. 


Justin McCormack vs Johnny Pantoja

Pantoja is a 1-4 fighter taking on a debuting pro. McCormack is a 5-0 amatuer with multiple submission wins. 

Betting Odds and Pick for  McCormack vs Pantoja 

Fighter Justin McCormack Johnny Pantoja
Money Line  -400 +300

This fight is essentially a ‘welcome to the big show’ party for Justin. He’s submitted everyone he’s come across, but hasn’t fought since 2018. At 32, he’s a fighter that’s really taking it slow. He’s training at Fortis MMA and he’s going to crush Pantoja. If I’m looking to paraly anything on this fight card it’s this bout. 
Our betting pick is Justin McCormack at -400, a $0.25 return per dollar wager on an exciting new pro. Expect an early submission. 

Jesus Martinez vs Mario Suazo 

Martinez is 0-5 and hasn’t won a fight to date. Suazo had a losing record in his amatuer bouts, but continued on, coming off a submission win. 

Betting Odds and Pick for Martinez vs Suazo 

Fighter Mario Suazo Jesus Martinez 
Money Line  -400 +300

Our research didn’t show Martinez training at SFS in Texas, which is a school he seems to have some involvement with. Martinez has lost by submission four times in his pro career and it’s likely Suazo will make it five. 

Our betting pick is the Mario Suazo money line at -400, betting the submission fighter over a pro with no submission experience.


Darren Whitney vs Joseph Galaviz 

Whiteny is a Fitness Fight Factory athlete going 2-3 over his last five fights. This is an evenly matched fight, and I’m not sure what makes Whitney the stronger favorite.  

Betting Odds and Pick for Whitney vs Galaviz 

Fighter Darren Whitney Joseph Galaviz 
Money Line  -350 +275

Galaviz trains out of Pariah in Colorado Springs, a gym with high quality coaching and fighters like Cameron Dollar and Zac Riley. 
After watching a bit of fight tape, it’s clear these fights are evenly matched. I expect it to go to decision, as neither have readied finishing mechanics. I’ll be betting on Joseph Galaviz. He pays out far more and is very much on the same level as Darren. 
Bet the Galaviz money line +275 for a razor close match up. 

Josh Nealy vs Matt Mooney 

Nealy has three submission losses and two KO wins over his last five fights. Mooney has two KO losses and three submission wins. I can’t think of a more perfect striker versus grappler style match up!

Betting Odds and Pick for Nealy vs Mooney  

Fighter Josh Nealy  Matt Mooney 
Money Line  +275 -350

Mooney has the better record as well as some kickboxing experience. I wanted to see what Nealy’s striking looked like, so we studied his fight with wrestler Josh Hunter. 
Nealy throws everything into his right hand, but the moment Hunter found a clench, Nealy’s grappling was rudimentary. He went for a few failed submissions but had no path to get back to standing.
Our betting pick is Matt Mooney’s money line at -350. 

Melvin Lopez vs Cole Griego 

The opening pro fight of the evening is a flyweight matchup between aging Fight Factory fighter Lopez and Greg Jackson student Cole Griego.

Betting Odds and Pick for Lopez vs Griego

Fighter Melvin Lopez  Cole Greigo 
Money Line  -300 +240

Griego had a rocky start to his pro career but went 5-5 as an amatuer in New Mexico. Cole was a high school wrestler, and being nearly seventeen years younger than Lopez, he should be able to outwork him for the victory. Bet Cole Griego’s money line at +240.

Fury FC 58 Betting Pick Wrap Up

The amatuer prelims have no odds available on most betting websites, so when you tune into UFC Fight Pass, you’ll see those four fights first. New to MMA betting? Start with our betting guide to get the basics on analyzing the best bet on any MMA fight. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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