Hindsight Harold’s Best Bets From UFC 260

UFC 260 Miocic vs Ngannou 2 Betting Recap

UFC 260, outside of the main event where Francis Ngannou appeared to out class, size, and power the now former heavyweight world champion, Stipe Miocic, was not a big name event at all.

The UFC does this. If they have a main event with one of their top 5 superstars, they think people will buy the pay per view regardless so the rest of the card doesn’t look that great on paper.

I’m not sure of the numbers of pay per view buyers they pulled in but it turned out to be a pretty exciting show. In the only early prelim of the night, former decision machine Marc Andre Barriult finished Abu Azaitar off with a TKO in the third round.

This surprised a lot of hardcore fans who were familiar with the Canadian’s style.

Alonzo Menifield had to fight a late replacement for William Knight and the new guy didn’t get the memo about the Von Flue Choke. When you grab the guillotine but your guard or legs have been passed by your opponent, then you have to let go.

If you hang onto it, your opponent can just drop their shoulder into your neck and the choke comes on very quickly. That’s exactly what happened here but by a show of hands, how many people had Menifield by submission?

Yea, I didn’t think so. Alonzo is known to be a banger and not much else so yes, we thought he would probably run through the non UFC level new guy but taking him by submission was quite the stretch.

This is where Hindsight Harold comes in and says you could have made 20, yes 20 times your investment! I was going to say none of us could have seen this coming but sometimes, you just have to play a line anyway.

20-1 is madness.

The exercise I want to do with you guys today is deciding with hindsight but also within reason the best bets you could have made for each fight from UFC 260.

The best bet to make for the Menifield fight could have been Alonzo wins inside the distance. By fight time, the line was getting pricey at (-153). This fight was in the light heavyweight division and it could have been ended by either fighter with just one strike.

For that reason, I say .25 or even half of a unit on the 20-1 Menifield by submission bet actually would have been your best play.

Let’s do this for each fight from UFC 260 and it will give us a much better idea of how to attack the next UFC event from a betting perspective.

Marc Andre Barriult vs Abu Azaitar

We discussed this one for a bit in the opener and the result, like the Menifield fight, was one that not many casuals or even hardcore fans saw coming.

The fight didn’t end until the last couple of minutes so it is safe to say that this one would go to the judges’ scorecards more often than not considering the durability and styles of both fighters.

Marc Andre was on his way to winning a likely unanimous decision over Azaitar in just a couple of minutes more so taking the Canadian by decision was the right play?

No. His moneyline was quite affordable at just (-127) at BetOnline.AG so that was your play. I like to attack the method of victory betting odds but in this case, I think it was best to simply play the Canadian and slight betting favorite on the moneyline.

Best Bet: Barriult Moneyline (-127)

Omar Morales vs Shane Young

Omar Morales, proudly representing his home country of Venezuela, was able to get a fairly comfortable decision over the scrappy Kiwi Shane Young. The New Zealander looked great coming off of a TKO loss to newcomer Ludovit Klein while Omar again didn’t quite live up to his expectations.

That’s the thing with expectations, y’all.

They suck. Try to avoid them at all costs. I understand some hype for Omar but I faded him against Gabriel Benitez as well as Giga Chicadze and they collectively paid simply because of the expectations that were set for the Venezuelan star.

Just talking about the country gets me emotional, guys.

Please Note:
The country was once the 5th richest in the world and now they are down to the 5th poorest. But why? Evil leadership, communism, a different year and country but the same story we have all seen or heard about in our history books. Forgive me, I’ve been an emotional mess lately. I went to BJJ for the first time in a while solely as therapy and to get my mind off of my troubles. It helped me out tremendously and it gave my mind somewhere to go other than right back to all the negativity in my life.

I recommend the martial arts to everyone! If you love watching the sport which you probably do or you wouldn’t be reading this, then get to a gym and train! I was in a terrible spot in my life when I first started on this journey 15 years ago and I learn something new every day.

I digress. Omar straight up was the play to make here. Young is very aggressive and coming off of a knockout loss so the possibility that the powerful striker, Morales could have put him away.

We tipped him at (-185) and I stand by that as a strong play.

Best Bet: Morales moneyline (-185)

Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Jared Gooden

I don’t want to waste too much of your time on this one. Jared Gooden is NOT UFC level and Abu, minus his last name, is BARELY UFC level. I would look to fade both fighters in their next contest if I were you.

This is especially true for the winner, Abu, because he is likely to be overvalued going into his next fight coming off of a 30-27 dominant decision victory. Both fighters looked like trash.

We still tipped Abu at (-220) earlier in the week. That is a very expensive price tag for a fighter with such a low overall level of skill and application but against someone as bad as Gooden, it was a solid play.

Jared really had no chance other than a fluke knockout of winning that fight.

Best Bet: Nurmagomedov moneyline (-220)

Khama Worthy vs Jamie Mularkey

I wanted absolutely nothing to do with this fight. After going 2-0 on bets for and then against Khama Worthy, I felt like I didn’t know what to expect from this one against a very tough and durable Jamie Mularkey.

Mularkey is a very good all around fighter who maybe likes to fight too much and brawls instead of using his wrestling.

Coincidentally, though, this strategy worked out for him against Worthy who has been knocked out several times in his career.

Khama was coming off of a KO loss to Ottman Azaitar, brother of Abu and a much better fighter. This was an early KO and it showed that Worthy’s chin is still rather questionable.

Taking Mularkey by TKO paid (+275) which is nice but he isn’t a mega puncher so it was hard to see this one coming. I tell my friends all the time that if you have a fighter who is already the underdog, then don’t chase a method of victory prop bet.

Plus money is good enough! Take it!

Best Bet: Mularkey moneyline (+115)

Miranda Maverick vs Gillian Robertson

I have been waiting for this fight for a long time now and Miranda didn’t disappoint with her performance against The Savage.

The favorite and winner, Maverick, closed at a very affordable (-154) at BetOnline.AG. I really thought the betting line was going to get much more out of control and upwards of 2 to 1 for the newcomer and favorite.

There is tape out there, though, of Maverick getting taken down by seemingly less capable wrestlers than Robertson and we all know how strong Gillian is in top position. Other than that, though, this fight wasn’t even close.

The striking game of Gillian has still yet to develop anywhere near the level it needs to be in order to compete in a striking match should she have to. We have seen her fold up against the cage before as she was overwhelmed by Maycee Barber and I rate Maverick above Maycee for sure.

Mav was taken down a couple of times by Gillian but she was able to get back to her feet without much issue. She then took down the red redhead 3 times herself just to let people know they have to prepare for everything when they fight her.

We tipped Mav a couple of months ago when they were first set to fight down at (-135) but more money came in the second time around and her odds got up to (-153). I thought both prices were great.

Best Bet: Maverick Moneyline (-153)

Sean O’Malley vs Thomas Almeida

This one took a little longer than expected and as a tipper and bettor of O’Malley by TKO, it certainly had me worried. O’Malley dominated the fight as many thought he would.

Styles make fights and Almeida is a high guard, plodding, fighter who likes to trade in the pocket and also threaten with kicks and knees. I was once a big fan but if you are going to have that style, you have to be able to take it as much if not more than you receive it.

Almeida has never had the chin for this way of fighting and the high guard defense only plays into the hands of the circling sharpshooter, O’Malley. I was shocked that we could get O’Malley at (+155) for a TKO win and thrilled it hit, even if I was half a fingernail down by the time he did it in the last couple of minutes of the third round.

Best Bet: O’Malley by TKO (+155)

Vicente Luque vs Tyron Woodley

Woodley, submitted?

Yup. I didn’t think it would happen either. I know he technically tapped out against Colby Covington because of a popped rib but he had never been submitted before. I know Luque is capable of such. He is Brazilian but taking him by sub was a bit of a stretch.

I thought these two would fight to a decision so we tipped the over 2.5 rounds. That obviously wasn’t even close to hitting but our first loss on the night so it wasn’t too much of a heart breaker.

Luque straight up at (-194) wasn’t that bad of a play and we certainly should have gone that route instead of hoping the 38 year old Woodley would hang on until the final bell.

Best Bet: Luque Moneyline (-194)

Stipe Miocic vs Francis Ngannou

Stipe Miocic looked like he just rolled out of bed before the main event of UFC 260 and Francis Ngannou honestly looked 10x better than we have ever seen him.

In his last fight against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Francis just bum rushed the Senegalese star with looping overhangs and hooks until the fourth one caught his opponent on the button and put him out.

This had me thinking that even though he has the technical skill with his hands, he still wasn’t able to apply it in his fights. Well, I was wrong.

Francis took his time and still got Stipe out of there within the first 6 minutes of the fight.

It wasn’t even close and Francis has some kind of ceiling on him. I think he can be much better than he is now. He even took the now former champion down just to show him and other competitors in the heavyweight division that he can.

Ngannou eventually found Stipe’s button and put him away early in the 2nd round.

The best bet to make was Francis’s moneyline. I know the TKO line paid more but not by much! He closed at BetOnline.AG at (-135) on the moneyline and (-130) to get a TKO win. That’s insanity but it turned out to be correct.

Well, he should have been a bigger favorite so there was undoubtedly an incredible amount of value taking Francis to get the win straight up.

Best Bet: Ngannou moneyline (-130)

In Conclusion

UFC 260 was a fun one! There were only 10 fights that made it to the Octagon that night but 6 of those ended inside the distance in spectacular fashion.

Miranda Maverick and Sean O’Malley showed us why they could both eventually challenge for a world title one day. The skill level of this new generation is something else!

Now, if Salty Sean can accept defeat a little better, then maybe he can evolve into a stronger person as well as competitor.

Miranda Maverick is ready for yet another step up in competition. It will be interesting to see who the UFC matches up with her next.

Vicente Luque is still trying to crack that top 5. With prior losses to Stephen Wonderboy Thompson and Leon Edwards, it is going to be tough for him to jump the line for a title shot. I think he is going to have to beat either fighter to be considered.

Francis Ngannou, of course, stole the show on Saturday night. I can’t believe how measured he was mentally, physically, and even emotionally. He looked way better than ever at UFC 261.

Now, we Americans have not one but ZERO world champions. Oh, wait! Aljamain Sterling!

He counts, right?! Speaking of which, get those early wagers in now for that rematch!


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Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.