Hillary Clinton is definitely running for President again in 2020, isn’t she?
I’ve been trying to shake this feeling for months now, but every once in a while, she pops back up just enough to remind us that her monstrous shadow is still hanging over this entire election cycle. “Hill Dog” has been craving a rematch ever since her humiliating upset in 2016, and thanks to the way things have been playing out in the democratic primaries, I think she’s going to get her shot.
By the way, that’s how I was feeling before she popped up on The Howard Stern Show on Wednesday. That’s the sort of move a person makes when they’re desperately trying to become more “relatable” prior to a big announcement.
Hillary Clinton Betting Odds (at Bovada )
- Market Odds
- To Win the Democratic Nomination +1200
- To Win the 2020 Presidential Election +3000
Where My Suspicions Began
Like all good conspiracy theories, my belief that Hillary has been secretly planning to join the democratic primaries was born during a random YouTube deep-dive. A little over a year ago, a channel dedicated to examining and breaking down people’s body language published a video titled, “ Could This Prove Hillary Clinton Is Running for President in 2020 ?”
In the video, a young man named Derek Van Schaik analyzes an interview Clinton gave to Kara Swisher. Over the course of the 18-minute clip, Hillary repeatedly blames the Republicans for running an unfair campaign and cheating her out of the Oval Office, showing that she still hasn’t come to terms with the part she played in the loss.
It wasn’t that she failed to connect with working-class Democrats, it had to be a vast Russian conspiracy. A story that’s been coming out of the Clinton camp for the last three years and has continued through the early stages of the 2020 democratic primaries.
The former Secretary of State has already accused Jill Stein and Tulsi Gabbard of being Russian assets! The narrator goes on to explain how she’s deflecting blame and saying that she would have won the election, if not for outside interference. Hillary wants the world to know she’s still a viable candidate and wasn’t outright rejected by a considerable portion of the democratic electorate – so she deserves another shot!
When Swisher asks Clinton if she wants to run again, the response is “no,” but the potential candidate then goes says, “well, I’d like to be President.” Her body language also gives her away. It’s a fascinating video, and Hillary immediately breaks into a campaign pitch, implying the country will need someone like her to clean up after Trump.
Things get more interesting when the former Senator starts talking about the potential field of DNC nomination-seekers (keep in mind, this interview took place just before the 2018 midterm elections). Hillary can barely hide her disgust and seems extremely reluctant to give anyone else much credit. She obviously wants to represent the Democratic Party!
You have to watch this video for yourself. Who knows how accurate YouTube body language experts really are, but he makes some excellent points throughout the breakdown. Plus, with the benefit of hindsight, it’s looking more likely that young Derek was right on the money – so I’m a believer.
The DNC Can’t Find an Establishment Candidate
If Clinton has been eyeing a possible return, things have been working out perfectly for her. The Democratic Party is split between a group of unconventional outsiders – or progressives – like Bernie Sanders, Tulsi Gabbard, and Andrew Yang and the DNC elite.
Establishment Dems aren’t all that thrilled about taxing the wealthy or providing Medicare for All. They prefer another “moderate” or centrist Democrat that’s pro-banks, pro-big business, and pro-Wall Street.
Their strategy is to use identity politics and social issues to separate themselves from the Republicans since they agree on the main factors concerning running a country. They’re relying, once again, on anti-Trump being enough of a position in and of itself to win without offering much substance.
However, that message hasn’t been landing with working-class voters this time, which is why we’ve seen promising candidates like Beto O’Rourke and Kamala Harris drop out before Iowa. Those two, along with Cory Booker, Senator Klobuchar, and Pete Buttigieg, are all just running the old Barak Obama campaign.
Meanwhile, the establishment media are doing everything in their power to ignore or discredit the progressive voices that won’t go away. Yet, no matter what they do, Bernie Sanders continues to raise more money than anyone else and attracts huge turnouts at his events.
The Democratic National Committee is not going to let Bernie become President. At the moment, Joe Biden is polling in the lead, though many pundits have the former VP and Sanders neck-and-neck. If he can hang on without doing anything crazy, Hillary may stay put – but that’s seeming more unlikely by the day.
Just this week, we had a weird finger-sucking incident and a bizarre story about kids playing with his hairy legs back in Biden’s lifeguarding days. As a betting man, I’m predicting that Clinton will join the race as soon as Joe’s campaign collapses – which I’m expecting around Super Tuesday.
With him gone and the Michael Bloomberg failing to build momentum with his “I’m super-rich, you guys should trust me” approach, the DNC elite will be begging Hillary to intervene. In fact, part of my conspiratorial mind wonders if the billionaire joined the race to pull the Overton Window to the right, making the former Secretary of State seem more progressive by default.
I don’t know what tricks they’ll need to pull to throw the required number of delegates Clinton’s way whenever she does jump in late in the process, but I’m confident they’ll find a way.
Hillary Has Stayed Involved
When it comes to American politics, the Clintons play the game as well as just about anybody. As the DNC primaries have progressed, Hillary has kept her status in the party and remained involved, without putting herself too far out there too early.
The press tour for her and Chelsea’s book was a stroke of genius. It gives the former Senator a reason to be doing the interview rounds – where she’s consistently asked about possibly running – and allows Hillary the opportunity to improve how she’s perceived while staying relevant in the media without the pressure of running a campaign yet.
Clinton has also used her platform to take shots at candidates at political rivals occasionally. Tulsi Gabbard stepped down from her position in the DNC in support of Bernie Sanders in 2016 – a move that came at great expense to the Hawaii Congresswoman. Tulsi went from a rising star in the party to persona non grata and has been fighting off accusations of being a Trump supporter and/or Russian asset ever since.
Months ago, Hillary answered an interview question in which she called both Jill Stein and Tulsi Gabbard “Russian assets,” or “favorites of the Russians,” respectively (though her comment about Tulsi was more of an insinuation). The comment triggered the following response from Gabbard, who sent her aggressive message over a series of tweets:
- “Great! Thank you @HillaryClinton. You, the queen of warmongers, embodiment of corruption, and personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party for so long, have finally come out from behind the curtain. From the day I announced my candidacy, there has been a …
- … concerted campaign to destroy my reputation. We wondered who was behind it and why. Now we know — it was always you, through your proxies and …
- … powerful allies in the corporate media and war machine, afraid of the threat I pose. It’s now clear that this primary is between you and me. Don’t cowardly hide behind your proxies. Join the race directly.
I’m guessing Tulsi is going to get her wish soon enough. The only question is whether the Congresswoman will still be in the race by the time Hillary joins. At the very least, I think it’s highly unlikely that these two will ever meet on a debate stage.
If Clinton is making another run at this thing, she’ll conserve as much energy as possible. The 2016 primaries were unexpectedly competitive, and the former Secretary of State’s health looked to decline as the general elections wore on. This time, she’ll want to be fresh to face Donald Trump.
Which brings me to Wednesday’s interview on The Howard Stern Show. Stern has lamented being unable to get Hillary on in 2016 and has argued that such an appearance could have been a difference-maker. Before this week, I thought he was doing his typical borderline-delusional brand of self-promotion. Now, I think he may have been onto something.
Make no mistake; I’m no fan of Hillary Clinton. I’m not a Republican either – I just don’t like the establishment elite who have been running this country for the last several decades. I went into her interview with glaring biases and negative expectations.
That said, she came across incredibly well – now I’m more convinced than ever that she’s running in 2020. In fact, from her perspective, it would be a shame to squander this momentum by staying on the sidelines. Howard did a masterful job of keeping the conversation interesting while ensuring that Hillary came across not only as human – but even relatable.
Honestly, I’m in shock that I’m even typing this. He somehow made her a somewhat sympathetic figure. If Clinton had done this interview in 2016 instead of going on The Breakfast Club and absurdly trying to convince black voters that she carries hot sauce in her purse – as if that would have swayed anyone to change their pick — it may have actually made a difference.
Now that I got all of that positive stuff out of the way, there was still one part of the interview that reminded me of who we’re dealing with here. She couldn’t resist the opportunity to stir up more of her neo-McCarthyist conspiracy theories. This time, Bernie Sanders is the candidate the Russians want in the White House.
She also blamed Sanders for staying in the race in 2016 and waiting too long to endorse Hillary, despite the fact that leaked emails proved collusion between the democratic party and the Clinton campaign to rig the nomination.
This schism between the Clinton wing of the party and the progressives isn’t going anywhere. After four years of Trump, will she be able to convince Sanders supporters to get in line this time? I’m not so sure about that one.
Betting on Hillary Clinton
As you’ve probably gathered by now, I’m relatively high on making some Hillary Clinton wagers for the 2020 presidential elections. Whether by design or not, things are playing out perfectly for her to join the race fairly late in the game to become the Democratic National Committee’s candidate-of-choice. And if she does decide to run again, it’ll only be if the former Senator is all-but-guaranteed the nomination.
That’s why I suggest betting her soon, while her democratic primary odds are still +1200. With every ridiculous thing Joe Biden does or says and every new moderate candidate that suspends their campaign, her line will only shorten.
By the time Super Tuesday rolls around, it’s going to be apparent that Biden’s poll numbers have largely been inflated throughout this entire process and that Bernie Sanders is running away with the nomination.
At that point, the DNC political machine will be forced to step in and stop all this “democratic socialism” business. Wealthy Americans are not about to see their taxes go up, nor are they going to fund student loan forgiveness, Medicare for All, or $1,000 per month in universal basic income payments.
How they pull off this maneuver will be of the utmost importance. Because, while I see Hillary effortlessly coasting to a democratic nomination, it will ultimately leave her (and the DNC), right where they were in 2016 — with an establishment-friendly candidate that the entire progressive wing of the party is pissed about.
That’s why I don’t like Hillary Clinton +3000 to win the presidency. As long as the DNC continues to ignore their working-class base, they’re going to continue running into this problem. The party is split between progressives and centrists, with the more powerful voices supporting the moderates.
Once again, you’ll see tons of Bernie/Tulsi/Yang primary supporters who refuse to vote for an establishment democrat like Biden, Buttigieg, or Clinton. Many of them will stay home on election day, others will vote for a third-party candidate, and a decent percentage will cast their ballot for Trump again.
Is it possible that the result will be different this time? Maybe.
Either way, this rematch will teach us a lot about the current mindset of the American people.