It’s Not Too Soon to Bet on Season Four of Cobra Kai

As much as I love and adore political betting, entertainment betting markets might be even more fantastic.

Entertainment oddsmakers make it possible to wager on absolutely everything: reality competitions, casting decisions for upcoming movie roles, celebrity divorces, scripted television shows, and almost anything else you can imagine.

Thankfully, that includes a show that has no business being as phenomenal as it is. Not in a million years would I have guessed a Karate Kid reboot could be this compelling – but here we are.

These are the three best entertainment betting sites:

Cobra Kai

Season Three of Cobra Kai was released on Netflix on January 8, 2021. It was the first season produced exclusively for the streaming platform; the first two were originally created for YouTube Red.

Fortunately, Netflix has picked it up for a fourth season, expected to be released in January 2022.

What makes it even better is that MyBookie is already offering early betting lines on what’s in store for the next chapter of the Daniel LaRusso / Johnny Lawrence (and kids) saga.

Spoiler Warning:

From this point forward, I will be discussing everything that has happened in the first three seasons, so if you’re one of those hyper-sensitive spoiler weirdos, you might want to stop here until you’re all caught up.

Who Wins the All Valley Karate Championship in Cobra Kai Season 4?

All Valley Karate Champ Betting Odds
Miguel Diaz +110
Robby Keene +150
Eli “Hawk” Moskowitz +300
Samantha LaRusso +400
Kyler +600
Tory Nichols +650
Demetri +800
Mitch +1500
Dre Parker +2000
Anthony LaRusso +2200
All Other Fighters +500

One of my favorite things about Cobra Kai is how it’s written almost like pro wrestling. Bad guys (heels) are usually given background stories that make them sympathetic, while “good guys” (babyfaces) are often corrupted by their newly acquired skills – thus, “turning heel.”

I also get a real kick (no pun intended) out of how quickly the various schools’ students become karate masters. These high school kids gain about a decade’s worth of skills in a month or two of hard training (punctuated by one badass montage).

So, if we’re handicapping Season Four’s All Valley Karate Tournament, we must consider the possibility that antagonists and previously untrained characters could be next year’s champion.

Side Note:

The fact that the city officials allowed themselves to be talked into holding another tournament after the high school erupted into a karate riot, landing one student in a coma, is ridiculously irresponsible. (Speaking of which, the public hearing at which Kreese uses woke language to make Daniel LaRusso look bad — “that’s counsel-PERSON” — and blames Miyagi-Do for the violence was brilliant.)

At least the writers were smart enough to have it canceled in the first place. Still, I’ve just never seen government bureaucrat moved enough by inspired speeches – especially from children — to reverse a previous ruling. I’m nit-picking though, it’s a television show, and we must suspend some disbelief.

Whatever the case, there hasn’t been an official, sanctioned competition since the end of Season One, so we’re due.

Miguel Diaz (+110)

The favorite to win his second All Valley karate Tournament is the show’s main protagonist, Miguel Diaz.

After becoming the Season One champion, having him win back-to-back titles wouldn’t be very satisfying under normal circumstances, which is why his story arc in the seasons since has been so well-executed.

After being shown mercy by Miguel during the school brawl, Robby Keene cheap shotted him, knocking the Johnny Lawrence Cobra Kai’s first student over a second story guard rail, landing on his head and neck.

Diaz started Season Three in a coma, then spent the rest of the season working to regain his ability to walk, then do karate again.

He didn’t become a decent fighter again until the end of the insane home invasion, gang assault committed by Kreese’s gang karate criminals.
No Consequences for Violence

Somehow it never occurred to any of the teenagers from Cobra Kai how illegal it is to break into someone’s home and try to kill the occupants. Particularly the Kyler maniac, who went out of his way to try and reinjure Miguel, someone who just recovered from his coma and got healthy enough to return to school.

There’s a real lack of understanding of the consequences of physically attacking people who don’t want to fight on this show.

In the finale, after the home invasion, Kreese tries stabbing Johnny with a Sai (the weapon Rafael from Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles uses), then attempts to do the same to Daniel with a shard of broken glass. Here’s a guy in his 60s or 70s willing to murder over a karate dojo rivalry.

Now, Miguel is back to being an underdog.

He’s fought so hard to be in the position even to consider competing in karate tournaments again; it’s only right that he wins again. That’s what 99% of television shows and movies in this genre would do.

However, Cobra Kai has frequently “zigged” when the predictable move would be to “zag.” The writers occasionally recycle typical karate movie tropes – usually with a wink and a nod – but not when you expect it most.

Plus, since the first Karate Kid film, there’s been one constant driver of all problems and storylines:

Love Triangles
  • It began with Daniel, Johnny, and Ali Mills.
  • In Karate Kid II, Mr. Miyai, Yukie, and Sato were in a love triangle that was inherited by Daniel, Chozen, and Kumiko (who makes a cameo appearance in Season Three of Cobra Kai).
  • Karate Kid III doesn’t have a love triangle; it’s more about Daniel being seduced by Terry Silver and Cobra Kai’s violent form of karate in his lead-up to fighting Mike Barnes. For once, LaRusso just stays friends with the female lead, Jessica Andrews.
  • In Cobra Kai Season One, Miguel wins over Samantha LaRusso, after she breaks up with Kyler, the former’s bully. However, Daniel begins training Robby alongside his daughter, and they get close.
  • Season Two is all about how Samantha and Robby grow closer together while one “it’s not what it looks like” moment after another turns Miguel into the typical Cobra Kai antagonist, gunning for the guy who successfully steals his girlfriend. In the meantime, Diaz grows closer to Tory.
  • Finally, in Season Three, homie-hopper Samantha gets back together with Miguel while Robby is in juvie for injuring the latter in the high school gang fight. This drives Robby into the arms of Sensei Kreese and Cobra Kai.

Is it possible that a new love triangle will change the complexion of Season Four?

We left off with Johnny Lawrence and Daniel LaRusso joining their two dojos together in preparation for taking on John Kreese’s students (who somehow aren’t all in jail) in the All Valley tournament. If they win, Cobra Kai must go away forever.

Bad Business

Evidently, Johnny didn’t sign any paperwork when reviving the karate school. He rented the building and opened the new Cobra Kai himself, operating the business for roughly a year or so before his old Sensei showed up and just took over.

You’d think Lawrence could just take the matter to court and shutter the dojo without having to stake it all on a karate tournament. But then again, you’d also think Kreese and every student who broke into the LaRusso’s house would be arrested – so, high-stakes teenage karate tournament for all the marbles it is!

Anyway…the newest season ended with Miguel and Samantha back together and training under one Miyagi-do / Eagle Fang banner. The potential for more relationship interference is at an all-time low, at least for these two.

However, there is another love triangle (of sorts) with the potential to explode in Season Four.

It’s between Johnny, Miguel, and Miguel’s mother.

I thought Johnny and Ali might shack up right after Sensei slept with Ms. Diaz, leading to an enraged Miguel abandoning Eagle Fang on behalf of her hurt feelings. Thankfully, Cobra Kai didn’t take things in that direction. Still, Johnny is hooking up with his closest pupil’s mom; that’s bound to cause drama.

Is it possible the mother-lovin’ will send Miguel back into the arms of Cobra Kai?

Based on what I’ve witnessed through three seasons, having Robby and Miguel training together with Kreese despite Johnny and Daniel finally working together is just the sort of thing this show’s writers would do.

Then, at the last moment, he’ll see the error of his ways and give the relationship his blessing, probably just before or after the final match of the All Valley Karate Tournament. He’ll forfeit the fight or lose on purpose, spelling the end of John Kreese.

Johnny becomes his stepfather in the last episode.

There are two reasons I’m not picking Miguel Diaz at +110:

  1. He regained his ability to fight in Season Three. If he’d remained helpless and entered next season needing to overcome seemingly insurmountable odds, I’d like his chances much better.
  2. The mom stuff. Keeping with Karate Kid history, Johnny’s relationship with Miguel’s mom is destined to drive a wedge between teacher and student – which thrusts Miguel back into the “villain suffering from a sense of betrayal” role.
All Valley Karate Tournament Winner
Miguel Diaz

Robby Keene (+150)

Robby Keene is the other obvious pick to win the All Valley tournament.

His biological father was never there for him, and Daniel turned him in to the police, resulting in a brutal stint in juvenile detention. After learning Miyagi-do, Robby advanced to Season One’s tournament, where he barely lost to Miguel.

Now he’s combining the defensive karate learned from LaRusso with the hyper-aggressive brand taught by John Kreese.

“Yay” for Avoiding Recidivism

Fortunately, Keene – who is still on probation for nearly murdering Miguel – didn’t attend the assault on Samantha’s house. Otherwise, it would be ridiculous for him to be anywhere but back behind bars in Season Four.

Robby fought his father briefly in the Season Three finale and is poised to be Cobra Kai’s star pupil next season – along with maybe Kyler. I’m guessing he’ll start dating Tory, whose psychotic energy will encourage Keene’s most destructive impulses – assuming the two of them aren’t in prison by the time the tournament begins.

All of that said, this show loves flipping the script.

If Robby opens the season as a villain, he may very well receive redemption before the serious karate starts. He’s Johnny’s son, so he’ll see the light eventually; it’s just a matter of “when.”

I like Robby Keene’s likelihood of winning the tournament (at +150 moneyline odds) — reconciling with his father and distancing himself from Kreese in the process – much more than Miguel’s.

He’s had the roughest upbringing of all the characters and worked hard to improve as a person before losing his head in the school brawl. The whole ordeal sent him down an unfortunate path and into the arms of Cobra Kai, but the writers won’t undo all the progress Robby made in the first two seasons.

All Valley Karate Tournament Winner
Robby Keene

“Hawk” (+300)

If the Cobra Kai show were a real-life sporting event, Eli “Hawk” Moskowitz would be the favorite to win the tournament.

He was one of Johnny Lawrence’s first and most dedicated pupils – after only Aisha and Miguel – and advanced to the semi-finals of last year’s competition. Hawk continued training under John Kreese, becoming one of Cobra Kai’s leaders and best fighters over the past two seasons.

After beginning his karate journey as a nerd, Hawk became a vicious bully. Any challenge to his social status or standing within Cobra Kai pushes Eli to get meaner and more violent. He’s terrified of going back to being “Lip.” Kreese knew how to manipulate those instincts to turn Hawk into a psychopath.

He finally broke out of the Cobra Kai mental conditioning during the home invasion in the Season Three finale, saving his former friend Demetri in the process. Now, he’ll be training with Johnny Lawrence and Daniel LaRusso.

The reason I believe Hawk would be favored in a real-life karate tournament is that:

  1. He’s been training for nearly as long as Miguel, only without any long-term hospitalizations.
  2. As of Season Three’s end, he’ll be the only character in the show to have trained under all three Sensei’s, which should make him the most well-rounded fighter.
  3. He just began his redemption arc in the final episode but still hasn’t made amends for all the insane violence he’s committed over the past two years. He’ll spend much of Season Four learning to balance the attack-minded aggressiveness learned at Cobra Kai with Daniel’s defensive style. It’ll be a struggle that should culminate with Miyagi-do saving his butt at the most crucial moment of the All Valley Karate Tournament.

Samantha LaRusso (+400) / Tory Nichols (+650)

So far, they haven’t shown women participating in the All Valley tournament.

Samantha, Aisha, and Tory have done tons of fighting – including lots of inter-gender battles – but I’m not sure they’ll be allowed to compete in the tournament.

However, my instinct is that that will change in Season Four. Samantha was passionately in favor of the tournament being reinstated, arguing that sanctioned competition may give the students somewhere more constructive to focus their energies. And this city desperately needs its high schoolers to stop engaging in gang wars in public.

Samantha and Tory’s bad blood is nowhere near finished, especially with the former looking to date Robby. They can’t keep meeting in illegal street fights, so the final round of a tournament is the perfect place to resolve their story.

I predict there will be men’s and women’s tournament winners in Season Four. That’s why I’m taking Samantha LaRusso at +400 here.
All Valley Karate Tournament Winner
Samantha LaRusso

Kyler (+600)

Kyler is the embodiment of a douchey high school bully. He’s routinely tortured helpless kids at school – including a pre-Cobra Kai Miguel – and was a sociopathic manipulator while briefly dating Samantha in the show’s first few episodes.

After being beaten into submission by Miguel Season One, Kyler was back as one of the “natural athletes” recruited by Kreese this year.

He kicked the crap out of Miguel in the house fight before the recently recovered hero did that thing all fighting show/movie protagonists do, discovering a hidden reservoir of power at the very last moment, turning the tide of the battle, and KOing the bully.

Kyler has been evil for 100% of the time he’s been on screen. Cobra Kai might try to humanize him going forward, but I cannot imagine a scenario in which he wins the tournament.

Demetri (+800)

Demetri is a major underdog worth taking a flier on. His character has arguably grown the most over the past two seasons, going from a lazy wimp to successfully defending himself – and humiliating former-friend Hawk in the process – with Miyagi-do in Season Two.

He gets jumped and has his arm broken by Hawk early in Season Three but recovers by the finale. While still in his cast, Demetri also ends up making out with the popular girl in school, just as he appeared to by sliding back into nerd-dom.

The only reason I think Demetri has a chance to be a serious competitor in Season Four is that pictures have leaked of the actor, Gianni DeCenzo, training like a madman between seasons. He’s getting into excellent fight shape, which I take to mean he’ll be doing lots of karate in the upcoming episodes.

Demetri winning the All Valley Karate Tournament isn’t the most likely outcome, but at +800 odds, he’s worth a few bucks.
All Valley Karate Tournament Winner

Total Times ‘Sweep the Leg’ be Mentioned in Season 4?

O/U “Sweep the Leg” Mentions

  • Matchup Odds
  • Over 3.5 Times-130
  • Under 3.5 Times +100

If Miguel were still injured, I might take the over here. However, while Cobra Kai has incorporated tons of references from the movies into the show, they’ve never been over the top or cheesy.

Saying “sweep the leg” more than three times would be ridiculous, even with Kreese coaching at the tournament again.

Please give me the under at +100.

We just have to worry about cinematic replay shots of him echoing the “sweep the leg” command while the protagonist is hurt and having to look within himself for the strength to continue.

O/U “Sweep the Leg”
Under 3.5

All Valley Karate Championship – Match Winner

Samantha LaRusso vs. Tory Nichols

  • Matchup Odds
  • Samantha LaRusso -140
  • Tory Nichols +110

Samantha LaRusso had her arm sliced by Tory in Season Two and was tormented by her delinquent antagonist all of Season Three. She only found the courage to fight back in the final moments of the house brawl, but the two were interrupted before there was a definitive winner.

I’m guessing Tory will only grow more insane under Kreese’s tutelage in Season Four. The two super karate women will meet in the finals of the tournament.

I bet that Samantha is injured by a dirty move, and Tory is who Kreese tells to “sweep the leg.”

Samantha LaRusso needs a big win after a tumultuous few seasons.

I’ve gotta take the OG Karate Kid’s progeny at –140 (probably by a variation of the crane kick).
Sam vs. Tory
Samantha LaRusso

Does Terry Silver Make an Appearance in Season 4?

Terry Silver in Season 4?

  • Matchup Odds
  • Yes-500
  • No+200

It was definitely Terry Silver who John Kreese called at the end of Season Three. Who knows what kind of mayhem he’ll introduce into the Cobra Kai storyline. I don’t know what he’ll do, but he’ll be there. I’m guessing Silver will provide Kreese’s dojo with much-needed financial support.

Maybe they’ll partner up on a new dojo since Terry was the first founder of Cobra Kai, and it’s ridiculous that John took over Johnny’s property without a legal battle of any kind. This show usually addresses inconsistencies, so Terry Silver helps a lot in that regard.

Plus, in Karate Kid III, it’s explained that Kreese and Silver fought in Vietnam together. This season was rife with ‘Nam flashbacks, including Silver crediting John with saving his life in the final episode before Kreese picks up the phone.

“Yes” is a –500 betting favorite for a reason; Terry Silver is on his way.
Terry Silver Appearance?

Does Mike Barnes Make an Appearance in Season 4?

Mike Barnes in Season 4?

  • Matchup Odds
  • Yes-230
  • No+160

If Terry Silver shows up, it’s only right to reunite him and Kreese with “Karate’s Badboy” from The Karate Kid III.

Silver helped his Vietnam buddy get back on his feet by re-establishing Cobra Kai and bringing in the ultra-violent Barnes to return the dojo to its former glory. I don’t see how you can have one without the other.

Mike Barnes making an appearance in Season Four is a no-brainer at –230 odds.
Mike Barnes Appearance?

Does Aisha Make an Appearance in Season 4?

Aisha in Season 4?

  • Matchup Odds
  • Yes+160
  • No-230

It was explained early in Season Three that the karate brawl at school motivated Aisha’s family to move away, effectively writing her out of the story.

Here’s what co-showrunner and executive producer Jon Hurwitz said about the departure:

“We love Aisha and we love Nichole Brown. Certain characters we loved in Season 1 didn’t appear at all in Season 2, like Kyler, Yasmine and Louie. Before the season, we told Nichole the same thing we told those actors: That just because a character doesn’t appear for a period of time doesn’t mean they’ve left the universe, that they can’t return again. We love that character, and perhaps we’ll see her again one day.”

As Hurwitz notes, we’ve seen other characters disappear for a season. With Samantha training for the tournament against a frightening nemesis, it’s the perfect opportunity for her former best friend to return.

I’ve got Aisha making an appearance in Season Four at +160 moneyline.
Aisha Appearance?

Does Jaden Smith Make an Appearance in Season 4?

Jaden Smith in Season 4?

  • Matchup Odds
  • Yes+900
  • No-3000

No way, that’s a different Karate Kid storyline altogether!

There’s no Mr. Miyagi in the Jaden Smith reboot; Jackie Chan plays that role. And Jaden’s family lives in China and competes in a Kung Fu tournament, which is different from karate.

This crossover would make zero sense.

“No” –3000 is the only answer.

Does Hilary Swank Make an Appearance in Season 4?

Hilary Swank in Season 4?

  • Matchup Odds
  • Yes+550
  • No-2000

Now, this is a cameo that makes a little sense!

Hillary Swank starred in The Next Karate Kid. She played Julie, a troubled teenager whose parents both died in a car accident. Julie first learned Miyagi-do from her father, who learned it from her grandfather, a former Miyagi student.

Swank’s character then became Mr. Miyagi’s student while the karate master was in Boston attending an event for Japanese-American soldiers.

I can’t think of a better idea for Cobra Kai than having Hillary Swank’s character encounter Daniel LaRusso.

The Sensei’s two top students meeting (and probably sparring – Hollywood always has the two protagonists spar for a bit before realizing they’re on the same team) will delight hardcore fans of the franchise. If it doesn’t happen in Season Four, Swank will be in Season Five.

I’m a huge fan of “Yes” at +550!
Hillary Swank Appearance?

Does Jacob ‘Hawk’ Bertrand Go Back to Cobra Kai in Season 4?

Hawk Back to Cobra Kai?

  • Matchup Odds
  • Yes-140
  • No+110

This betting line is a bit confusing because Jacob Bertrand is the actor who plays Eli “Hawk” Moskowitz. Regardless, I can see him returning to Cobra Kai temporarily. Even though he turned on his teammates in the final episode, I see Hawk struggling to adopt a more defensive style after three straight seasons of “attack, attack, attack” conditioning.

I suspect he will return to Kreese momentarily, probably betraying Miyagi-do / Eagle Fang in some dramatic way, before realizing his mistake.

MyBookie doesn’t ask which dojo he’ll end up with, only whether he’ll return to Cobra Kai.

So, I’m taking “Yes” at –140.
Hawk Returns to Cobra Kai?
Will Cormier / Author

Will Cormier is a sports and political betting writer living in downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. When he’s not wandering around the streets of the Arts District aimlessly, a lifetime of pessimism and paranoia has made Will perfectly suited for handicapping politics. Cormier tries to analyze current events as objectively as possible – a strategy that often enrages loyalists on both the right and the left. When he’s not covering major upcoming elections, Will enjoys writing about basketball, football, and MMA from a betting perspective. He also loves dogs, ice cream sundaes, the movie “Stomp the Yard,” and long walks on the beach.

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