LFA 127 Odds and Betting Picks

LFA 127 Diaz Vs Assis

Our LFA 127 Odds and predictions include all nine bouts available for betting on March 25th, 2022. Place your bets before the fights air at 7:00 PM ET on UFC Fight Pass. Betting on Legacy Fighting Alliance is similar to UFC or other MMA events

LFA 127 MMA Odds: Main Event

Our Main Event is for the LFA 185 pound title. Diaz is #15 in the Midwest while Assis is #24 in the Middle USA. Both fighters will lose regional rankings after this bout in exchange for a world ranking. The belt is currently vacant and this is both fighters first time going five rounds. 

Tale of the Tape for Diaz vs Assis

Fighter Ozzy Diaz  Bruno Assis
Age 31 29
Height 6’4’’ 6’3’’
Record 6-1 12-5
Submissions/TKO  2/4 7/0
Fighter Training Camp California MMA  BH Rhinos 

Assis is a well known Brazilian submission specialist who’s been active since 2015. He fought for Jungle Fight against Paulo Costa and other high level fighters, including a win over the UFC’s Jailton Almeida. 
Diaz has fought moderate competition at best, and was finished by the 1-2 Santiago Diaz. Our only concern for an Asis win should be Diaz’s knockout power. 
Assis has been knocked out four times in his seventeen fight career. Granted, these fighters included Paulo Costa, undefeated Ukrainian Vakhitov, and Brave FC staple Daniel Pereira. 

LFA 127 Betting Odds 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Assis Money Line -145
Diaz Money Line +115
Over 2 ½ Rounds +130
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -160

Given that both fighters are finishers that get finished often the Under 2 ½ Rounds looks like a good bet, but I won’t recommend it given Assis’ grappling ability. Often, a fighter looking for a title will grind out the first few rounds with ground control, something Assis has the experience and ability to do. 
The Over pays out well, but Diaz’s lack of competition makes me nervous. What if he crumples in the face of good jiu jitsu? We can’t know and will have to stick to money lines. 

LFA 127 Predictions

The toughest opponent of Diaz’s career has been Moses Murrietta, a fighter who’s lost five of his last six fights and who’s biggest win is Sidiah Parker. Given Assis’ last few fight performances, a three fight winning streak with two finishes, our betting pick is Bruno Assis at -145. He’s a quality grappler who’s shown the skill to defeat fighters at Diaz’s level. Let’s hope Diaz reevaluates and doesn’t take such large jumps in competition for his future career. 

LFA 127 MMA Odds: Main Card

On to our Main Card LFA 127 Odds and Predictions. We’ve also arranged all four picks here: 

  • Chase Gibson +125
  • Josh Wang-Kim -600
  • Karlee Pangilinan -185
  • Tommy Aaron -205


Tale of the Tape for Gibson vs Garcia 

Fighter Chase Gibson  Javier Garcia 
Age 32 29
Height 5’8’’ 5’10
Reach/Stance 72’’ Orthodox  69’’
Record 10-5 8-4
Submissions/TKO  4/4 0/5
Fighter Training Camp California MMA  Combat Submission Wrestling TC (Erik Paulson)

We’re seeing more and more great fighters come out of Erik Paulson’s camp and Garcia is no exception. He just defeated the promising Ryan Fillingame. Gibson has power, and just finished the formerly undefeated Thai Clark. 
Gibson has knockout power where Garcia does not. However Javier does have a chin and has never been knocked out. A quick look at Garcia’s record show’s he’s never fought a striker with as many knockouts as Gibson.  

Co-Main Event LFA 127 Betting Odds 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Gibson Money Line +125
Garcia Money Line -155
Over 2 ½ Rounds -180
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +150

The Over is the favorite despite both fighters having a collective thirteen finishes, just shy of a collective 50% finishing ratio. If you’re going with a prop bet, I’d think about the under. 

LFA 127 Predictions

Gibson has more wrestling experience, more knockout power, and looks more physical in the clench. For a five round fight, I’d go with Garcia. I think Javier is going to get run over. Our betting pick is Chase Gibson at +125. 


Tale of the Tape for Jimenez vs Wang-Kim 

Fighter Arnold Jimenez  Josh Wang-Kim 
Age 27 29
Height 5’8’’ 5’9’’
Record 7-2 4-0
Submissions/TKO  1/1 1/2
Fighter Training Camp Millennia MMA Various

Jimenez has struggled to finish fighters, and his five fight winning streak includes only one fighter with a winning record, a split decision over Albert Veloz. 

Wang-Kim has a decorated amatuer career that includes fifteen wins and a split decision loss back in 2016. This fighter takes his training very seriously, and footage of training happens at five or six different gyms, honing in on various skills with multiple coaches. 

LFA 127 Betting Odds 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Wang-Kim Money Line -600
Jimenez Money Line +425
Over 2 ½ Rounds +115
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -145

Odds makers see a quick win for Wang-Kim. The majority of his knockout wins are early in the fight, alongside six first round amatuer finishes. Still, Jimenez is a pro that has survived to a decision with enough men that the under may not make much since. We don’t know the quality of Jimenez’s chin, and don’t have much to compare it to given the limited experience of his opposition. 

LFA 127 Predictions

Wang-Kim demonstrates better striking and grappling skills than Jimenez. Jimenez doesn’t have the kind of kickboxing or power to swing for the fences. Our betting pick is Wang-Kim at -600, and this is our top bet for any parlay tickets that include LFA 127. 

Tale of the Tape for Pangilinan vs Cruz 

Fighter Karlee Pangilinan  Wascar Cruz
Age 28 38
Height 5’3’’ 5’4’’
Record 6-1 12-9
Submissions/TKO  2/4 2/3
Fighter Training Camp Team Quest  MMA Masters

Masters is a better up and coming camp than Quest, but Pangilinan has youth on his side. Cruz has taken beatings over his last five fights, including a split decision loss to undefeated Echeverria for Titan FC and a choke loss to the 7-8 Shojin Miki. 
Pangilinan got caught in a submission in his last fight, shooting in for the takedown. 
Cruz is the more physical fighter, but Pangilinan has more knockout power. 

LFA 127 Betting Odds 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Cruz Money Line +155
Pangilinan Money Line -185
Over 1 ½ Rounds -165
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +135

The Under is a surprising +135, despite all of Pangilinan’s fights ending by the second round. Cruz has only seen three decisions in his past ten fights. We’re presuming that Pangilinan will fight smart, but the reality is that both fighters move very quickly and get started early. 

LFA 127 Predictions

Pangilinan is the better striker and likely the better submission fighter. Cruz’s recent losses to fighters with losing records isn’t a good sign. I don’t think his age is doing him any favors. Our betting pick is Karlee Pangilinan at -185.


Tale of the Tape for Aaron vs Melo 

Fighter Tommy Aaron  Junior Melo 
Age 27 NA
Height 5’11’’ 5’11’’
Reach 72’’ NA
Record 9-6 10-5
Submissions/TKO  2/3 5/3
Fighter Training Camp Triton MMA Pitbull Brothers

Aaron has gone 4-4 over his last four fights. He’s an athletic fighter, but has dropped decision victories to mid level opponents in 2021. Melo lost his last fight to the 12-3 Guido Santos, ending a four fight winning streak. The quality of Melo’s competition has been lower across the board, and it puts into question many of Melo’s submission victories. 

LFA 127 Betting Odds 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Melo Money Line +165
Aaron Money Line -205
Over 1 ½ Rounds -180
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +150

Melo looks to finish fights quickly. His 80% finishing ratio doesn’t carry over to tougher fighters. Aaron’s last decision win was over 13-5 Marc Howell. Look for Aaron to drag out the bout and Melo to rush into grappling exchanges early. 

LFA 127 Predictions

Fight tape shows the striking of Tommy Aaron to be far superior. Melo still has that classic brawling style many BJJ players are accustomed to. Our betting pick is Tommy Aaron at -205, a favorite that shows well rounded MMA against Melo’s one dimensional BJJ. 

LFA 127 MMA Odds: Prelim Fights 

For the four Prelim bouts and LFA 127 betting odds, we’ve listed the odds and a quick prediction. Many of the fighters have limited tale of the tape information and stats, so we’ve relied on fight tape to organize our picks.
Scroll for more stats, or go with our top picks: 

  • Canuto Money Line at -1000
  • Mauldin Money Line at -290
  • Schwenke Money Line at -200
  • Wiseman Money Line at -600


LFA 127 Betting Odds and Predictions for Pouncey vs Canuto 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Pouncy Money Line +600
Canuto Money Line -1000

Canuto is a fighter out of Cobrinha BJJ in Las Vegas. She’s a five time BJJ champion and won both her fights with quick submission wins. Pouncy has an extensive amatuer career, one that includes four submission losses from low level fighters. Canuto should make a quick submission victory, and our betting pick is her money line at -1000. 


LFA 127 Betting Odds and Predictions for Mauldin vs Pyles 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Mauldin Money Line -290
Pyles Money Line +230

Both of the fighters that have defeated Mauldin have been quality pros. One undefeated, and the other a 4-1 Kings MMA wrestler and undefeated amatuer. Pyles looks a little more like a hobbyist fighter. Our betting pick is Mauldin for a quick win at -290. 

LFA 127 Betting Odds and Predictions for Schwenke vs Vazquez 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Schwenke Money Line -200
Vazquez Money Line +160

Schwenke is also an undefeated amatuer with seven fights and four wins via knockout. Vazquez is a pro level grappler who’s 2-1 in his amatuer career. Vazquez is the #14 No gi grappler at light heavyweight, but his boxing has a long way to go. I see a Schwenke decision win, if only due to the ability to outstrike and outwork Vazquez, who doesn’t have a high submision rate even in grappling. 

LFA 127 Betting Odds and Predictions for Dao vs Wiseman 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Dao Money Line +400
Wiseman Money Line -600

Wiseman is a submission specialist who’s been punking on amateurs since 2015. Dao is a new pro with no fight history at all. Should be an easy win for Wiseman at -600. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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