LFA 128 Betting Picks, Odds and Full Card Preview

McKenzie Vs Clay Friday April

LFA 128 betting is open and we’ve organized the seven fights with money line bets available for easy betting. You’ll see the LFA 128 odds for each fighter and our top pick, in addition to a short MMA breakdown. 
Don’t miss out on LFA 128, April 8th, 2022 on UFC Fight Pass. You can scroll to see our individual breakdowns for each fight, or you can see the full list of picks below. If you’re brand new to MMA betting, learn some of the basics before building your ticket. 

Top LFA 128 Betting Picks and Odds 

  • Aaron McKenzie Money Line -200
  • Jimmy Lawson Money Line -350
  • Devon Dixon Money Line -105
  • Sarek Shields Money Line+125
  • Mitchell McKee Money Line -750 Only at betonline
  • Bryce Meredith Money LIne -2000, Only at betonline
  • Abubakar Adamu at -1400 


LFA 128 Prediction for Main Event: Aaron McKenzie vs Lucas Clay

Fighter Aaron McKenzie Lucas Clay 
Money Line  -200 +150
Age 33 26
Height 5’11’’ 6’0’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ 75’’
Record 10-2-1 8-1
Submissions/TKO  4/4 3/0
Fighter Training Camp Rafael Lovato’s BJJ and MMA St. Charles MMA 
Losses via Sub/TKO  0/0 0/0

This main event is for the LFA vacant Lightweight Championship and will be five rounds. Neither fighter has seen a five round decision in their career, but in training alongside the conditioning machine that is Rafael Lovato Jr, McKenzie has a slight advantage. 
McKenzie is three fights out of Bellator where he went 1-1, including a win over 38 year old Sean Clements. 
Clay is primarily a grappler, and has no wins via TKO. He does have one knockout loss in his amatuer career, and McKenzie has more knockouts than any of Clay’s opponents to date. In fact, Clay’s last few outings have been against other submission specialists. 

McKenzie vs Clay Losses 

Clay lost to Trey Ogden, a Glory MMA submission fighter that won via decision. Clay is used to using his lanky limbs to catch triangles and Brabo chokes, something that a skilled submission fighter will be privy to. 
McKenzie recently lost to 3-0 Chris Gonzalez, a Team Alpha Male striker that barely kept out of McKenzie’s ground game. Clay lost in more definitive fashion to a less promising fighter. 

LFA 128 Betting Prediction

Our betting pick is the favorite, Aaron McKenzie at -200. He’s a better striker by far and a more experienced grappler. Clay’s youth and height advantage will only take him so far. He needs to find a better striking program to work with. 

LFA 128 Co-Main Event Odds and Prediction for Lawson vs Eatman

Fighter Jimmy Lawson Marino Eatman
Money Line  -350 +250
Record 3-1 5-4-1
Submissions/TKO  0/3 1/0
Fighter Training Camp American Kickboxing Academy MMA Masters 
Losses via Sub/TKO  0/0 1/2

Eatman has struggled in recent fights, going 0-2-1 in his last three. He’s been active since 2012 and is now 35. Lawson is on a three fight winning streak losing his debut to Said Sowma via decision. Sowma recently knocked out Eatman in a 2019 bout. 
Eatman has fought tough fighters including Bellator top five Steve Mowry. Lawson isn’t quite at that level, but he’s no slouch and brings unique challenges to Eatman. He’s a former Penn State wrestler and one of the better grapplers Eatman has faced. 

Bettong on AKA vs MMA Masters

AKA is a tried and true facility with doenz of MMA world champs. Under the tutelage of Danile Cormier, Lawson should find ways to utilize his size and wrestling skill coupled with MMA striking. At Masters, Eatman is one of the new fighters at a new gym. They’re full of former world champions and Colby Covington, but on their own they’ve established little credibility. 

LFA 158 Betting Prediction 

Our betting pick is the favorite, Jimmy Lawson at -350. Fight tape shows him to be an aggressive wrestler with good conditioning. Given that the majority of Eatman’s wins have been by decision, going the distance with a well conditioned wrestler isn’t a good strategy. I don’t see a path to victory for Eatman, and this will be a fight I look to parlay alongside the GGG bout on April 9th. 

LFA 128 Main Card Odds and Prediction for Dixon vs Miranda 

Fighter Devon Dixon  Richie Miranda
Money Line  -105 -125
Age 25 NA
Height 5’10’’ 5’9’’
Record 4-0-1 3-0
Submissions/TKO  1/2 1/2
Fighter Training Camp Sanford MMA  CSW Training Center (Erik Paulson) 

Dixon is slightly larger and very well muscled for his fight with Miranda. Both fighters are undefeated, but both had amatuer losses. MIranda lost to 6-4 amatuer Xavier Vines in 2019 and Dixon lost twice back in 2018 referee stoppage and submission. 
Dixon wasn’t at Sanford MMA for his amatuer career, and has developed a strong ground game. He’s struggled to take the win over his last two fights, winning at-270 odds over 3-1 Brandon Lopez by split decision and going to a draw with 3-1 Charlie Decca as a -590 favorite. 
During his pro career starting in 2021, Miranda has fought two debuting fighters and was the -175 favoirte over 3-1 James Lynch. Overall, Dixon has fought the tougher fighters, and is one of the strongest finishers Miranda has faced. 
Our betting pick goes to slight underdog Devon Dixon at -105. He’s at the right camp, his conditioning is absurd, and he’s made leaps and bounds in his striking over the last three years. 

LFA 128 Main Card Odds and Prediction Shields vs Jean

Fighter Sarek ‘Berserker’ Shields Thad Jean
Money Line  +125 -165
Age 27 23
Height 6’0’’ NA
Reach/Stance 73’’ NA
Record 2-0 2-0
Submissions/TKO  0/1 1/1
Fighter Training Camp Victory MMA  FightSports 
Amatuer Losses  1 2

Underdog Sarek was a 5-1 amatuer, losing only to phenom and now undefeated LFA fighter Josh Quinlin.  Thad Jean is a fantastic ground fighter, but was widely untested in his amatuer career. His two losses were to undefeated amateurs in 2018, and only one went on to have a successful career- 7-0 pro Roman Faraldo. 
Neither fighter has a strong advantage in fight camp, so we looked to fight tape to make our pick. Shields is the more physical of the two athletes. He has submission skills that match Thad, and aggressive striking that could spell trouble for the untested submission fighter. 
Our betting pick is Sarek Shields at +125

LFA 128 Main Card Odds and Prediction Meredith vs Viola 

Fighter Bryce Meredith Jay ‘Bad Mutha F*cka’ Viola 
Money Line  -2000 +1000
Age 26 NA
Height 5’9’’ NA
Record 1-0 3-3
Submissions/TKO  0/1 0/0

Meredith is a highly qualified college wrestler cross training at a major fight camp. Viola has been in the fight game since 2014, and is the much older fighter. Jay has moved to California Martial Arts, a good school, but I doubt it will be enough to get the win. Meredith was a 3x All American and trains at the MMA Lab in Arizona. Since Viola has been brutalized in his last two fights, and save for a random bottom submission, Meredith is a shoe-in for parlay tickets. Our pick is Bryce Meredith at -2000. 

LFA 128 Main Card Odds and Prediction McKee vs Jackson

Fighter Mitchell McKee Jalen Jackson
Money Line  -750 +550
Record 1-0 0-1
Submissions/TKO  0/1 0/0
Training Camp Sanford MMA X-Fit MMA

Jackson has never won a fight. Two amatuer bouts, lost by TKO and Submission, then a siteen second armbar in his last fight.
McKee is training out of a top tier camp, has finishing power, and was a Big Ten wrestler. It doesn’t look good for Jackson. Our betting pick is Mitchell McKee at -750, and parlaying this with the other high level wrestler on the card isn’t a bad idea. 

LFA 128 Prelims Odds and Prediction Triolo vs  Adamu 

Fighter Andrew Triolo Abubakar Adamu
Money Line  +700 -1400
Age NA 25
Height NA 5’10’’
Record Debuting Pro 2-0 Amatuer, Debuting Pro

Abubakar was a high level TKD fighter, who had plenty of ability,even winning some high level tournaments like the Presidents Cup in 2016 as a teenager. In his adulthood, he switched to MMA but there are no reports of his choice of gym. 
Triolo has no major history of wrestling, MMA or anything else. It’s tough to tell how long he’s been training, and for that we’ll bet tentatively on Abubakar Adamu at -1400. I’d strongly recommend avoiding the parlay, if only because we have no idea what Andrew is capable of. 

LFA 128 Odds and Predictions Wrap Up 

With debuting fighters and cards with plenty of unknown fighters, make sure to look back into their collegiate careers. For this card, we scoured social media, gathered stats from college wrestling and olympic committees. It’s tough to dig that deep on your own. Drop a comment below and stay up to date on thesportsgeek.com’s top betting advice and picks. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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