LFA 135 Leyva vs Reis Odds and Predictions

LFA 135 July 8

 LFA 135 Odds are open for betting and we’ve hunted down the stats and fight tape so you don’t have to, formulating the best bet for each fight. We’ve picked our top parlay’s, underdog bets, safe value bets to make LFA 135 predictions for all 11 bouts. 

How to Watch and Bet on LFA 135: Leyva vs Reis 

Tune into LFA 135 on UFC Fight Pass, June 8th, 2022 at 11:00 PM ET. Click any of our Place Bet buttons to be shuttled to one of the Best MMA betting sites, Betonline.ag.

LFA 135 Predictions

We’ve bolded our top pick. No prop bets are available for this card. Scroll for detailed analysis of each bout. 

  • Alfonso Leyva -210 vs Daniel Reis +180
  • Felipe Bunes -325 vs Wascar Cruz +250
  • Austin Wourms +275 vs Lucas Clay -350
  • Paris Stanford +350 vs Allan Begosso -450
  • Jena Bishop -130 vs Luana Santos +110
  • Marcus McGhee -190 vs Rafael do Nascimento +165
  • Maria Henderson -500 vs Melanie McIntyre +375
  • An Ho -900 vs Matt Barro +550
  • Cedric Katambwa -240 vs James Hay +190
  • Nick Alwag +375 vs Angel Atoigue -500


LFA 135 Main Event: Alfonso Leyva -210 vs Daniel Reis +180

Leyva faces the toughest challenge of his career in Reis. His undefeated streak includes five pro wins, each by TKO finish, but none of his opponents have had more than three fights. Three of them fought against Leyva in their debut. Reis is a submission fighter who’s only loss is via knockout, with a pro debut back in 2013. 

Leyva vs Reis Tale of the Tape 

Fighter Alfonoso ‘The Sniper’ Leyva  Daniel ‘Dani Boy’ Reis 
Age 29 30
Height 5’11’’ 5’9’’
Record 5-0 8-1
Career Submissions, TKO  0, 5 4, 1
Fighter Training Camp Entram  Alliance Jiu-Jitsu

Entram gym gave us former bantamweight champion Brandon Moreno. Leyva has been his sparring partner and team mate for years. In addition, he has all natural advantages over Reis. 

LFA 135 odds show Leyva as having a 67% chance of victory, and it all depends on his takedown defense.


Leyva Fight Tape and Takedown Defense

Leyva has dynamite in his hands and puts down opponents repeatedly throughout his career, scoring multiple knockdowns in each fight. He’s usually the aggressor in takedowns, so it’s difficult to score his defense. Reis is a stocky 170 with a great power double, but I see Leyva timing strikes that scare Reis from entering into takedown range. 

Prediction: Leyva -210

The favorite has serious stopping power and Entram is a gym known for its counter grappling and submission experts. Leyva will come in with plenty of experience against people like Reis. Bet Leyva’s money line for winnings of $47.62 per $100 wagered. 

LFA 135 Co-Main Event: Felipe Bunes -325 vs Wascar Cruz +250

Cruz is 2-3 over his last five fights, loading twice by choke. He has six career submission losses since 2009, which is a dangerous stat against a high flying submission artist like Bunes.Bunes is 1-4 over his last five. He was thrown to the wolves in ACA, facing three undefeated Dagestani fighters back to back. In that time, he scored two triangle submissions over quality ACA competition. 

Bunes vs Cruz Tale of the Tape 

Fighter Felipe ‘Felipinho’ Bunes  Wascar ‘La Avispa’ Cruz 
Age 32 38
Height 5’7’’ 5’4’’
Reach  71’’ 68’’ 
Record 11-6 13-9
Career Submissions, TKO  8, 1 5, 5
Fighter Training Camp Pitbull Brothers MMA Masters 

Bunes is the younger man by six years, and has the height and reach advantage. Pitbull Brothers is one of the better gyms in the world for submission centered fighters. Cruz will need to bring his best striking to get the win, with his most recent knockouts in 2020-21 coming by way of ground strikes. 

Bunes vs Silander, Cruz vs Ledesma 

In one of the Bunes ACA wins, he takes a late armbar over the undefeated Silander. Throughout the fight he gets very creative with striking, including various shoulder strikes and wrist pin techniques.

Cruz struggles to find his range by the end of the first round, and his reliance on wrestling and ground strikes could be his undoing against the crafty Bunes. 

Prediction: Bunes -325

This fight might be close, but Bunes striking is light years past Cruz’s. The LFA 135 odds payout winnings of $30.77 per $100 wagered on a fighter that’s better in nearly every category of fighting except takedowns. The only way Bunes loses is a boring decision, and LFA referees won’t let that happen. 

Austin Wourms +275 vs Lucas Clay -350

Wourms is on a three fight winning streak, each via armbar submission in the first round. This submission specialist has struggled with strikers of various levels in his career. Clay is also a submission specialist, but one that has lost the majority of steps up in competition he’s taken. 

Wourms vs Clay Tale of the Tape 

Fighter Austin ‘Starkiller’ Wourms  Lucas ‘Cassius’ Clay
Age 29 26
Height 6’0’’ 6’0’’
Reach  75’’ 75.5’’
Record 5-3 8-2
Career Submissions, TKO  5, 0 3, 0
Fighter Training Camp Blue Star Grappling  St.Charles MMA 

Both fighters have only submission finishes. Wourms has more consistent finishes, but has lost via TKO three times. On paper, the fighters are very evenly matched. St.Charles is a slightly more proven academy than Blue Star, but not by much. 

Wourms and Clay Fight Tape

Wourms tend to catch the submission rather early if at all. He accepts forward moving fighters and catches them as they rush forward. Against fighters like Travis Foste, that simply doesn’t work. Wourms took a beating and essentially accepted the bottom position the whole fight. 
Lucas Clay has notably better kickboxing and focuses on body locks to takedown fighters against the cage.

Prediction Clay -350

Using greater explosive power and understanding of range, we see Wourms falling short to another grappling athlete. Bet Clay for winnings of $28.57 per $100 wagered. He’s more durable, and more focused on decision wins which is the outcome of most grappler vs grappler fights. 

LFA 135 Upset Pick: Paris Stanford +350 vs Allan Begosso -450

Stanford has lost his last two fights, after upsetting Jake Heffernan in 2019. Begosso is coming off his first career loss, but he’s a dangerous grappler and striker, choosing high quality fighters at nearly every stage of his career. 
This would have been a more competitive fight eight years ago when Stanford started his MMA career. 

Stanford vs Begosso Tale of the Tape 

Fighter Paris ‘Superhero’ Stanford  Allan ‘Mini’ Begosso 
Age 39 26
Height 5’9’’ 5’4’’
Record 5-3 6-1-1
Career Submissions, TKO  3, 1 3, 2
Fighter Training Camp Fight Ready MMA  Team Alpha Male 

Paris has been working out with fighters like Might Mouse and other top level 125 pound fighters. He’s a fantastic athlete and grappler, but I fear his focus on the gi isn’t a boon to his MMA career. Allan’s style is one centered leglocks and striking, a very tough style to replicate. 

Paris vs Begosso Grappling Style

Superhero Stanford  is a classic wrestler coupled with range finding kicks. He’s great at putting fighters against the cage, but finds himself in bottom position because of conditioning all too often, as with Andy Perez in 2021. 

Begosso’s height isn’t easy to get used to.

As a result, he gets under fighters fairly often. The trouble is he usually fights at 125. This ten pound difference is night and day, and Stanford will be head and shoulders over him. Begasso gets rocked by the taller Mauricio Donoso, a fighter that’s not half the striker Paris is. 

Prediction: Stanford +350

Height, grappling pedigree and striking acumen all go to Stanford. He’s at the right gym for a bantamweight and Begosso is having trouble finding 125 pound fights. Take this bet for 3.5 times your money on an underrated BJJ black belt. 

LFA 135 Parlay Pick: Jena Bishop -130 vs Luana Santos +110

Both women are undefeated pros with pro grappling backgrounds. Santos is undefeated in MMA, including three wins as an amatuer. Jena won the 2019 ADCC trials but lost in the first round. I see Santos as the better MMA fighter, if only because she seems to have better takedowns. 

Bishop vs Santos Tale of the Tape 

Fighter Jena Bishop  Luana Santos 
Age 36 22
Height 5’4’’ 5’6’’
Record 2-0 3-0
Career Submissions, TKO  1, 0 2, 0
Fighter Training Camp Alliance Jiu-Jitsu  Lucas Mineiro Team 

Santos is far younger but far less experienced in BJJ. She does have a longer MMA career, reaching back to 2019 as an amatuer. Jena took her first MMA bout in 2021. Santos has takedowns in all six of her MMA bouts. Jena is from the more proven gym in Alliance BJJ. 

Bishop vs Santos BJJ Ability

Bishop has a controlling top game built for submission work. Both her bouts included her dominating from top position and landing plenty of strikes. 

Luana has dominated against what are mostly lower quality grapplers.

She hasn’t put her takedown defense on display in any fight. The LFA 135 odds are being generous to Santos due to her undefeated status. 

Prediction: Bishop -130

Jena has beaten some of the best women’s grapplers in the US, and Santos has never encountered high quality grappling resistance across six wins. This fight pays winnings of $76.92 per $100 wagerd but is a shoe-in for any parlay ticket for a far greater return. 

Marcus McGhee -190 vs Rafael do Nascimento +165

McGhee is on a seven fight pro/am winning streak, each via finish. He has some amatuer losses that took place in 2012. Nascimento is a dangerous up and coming Brazilian with a submission focused game. 

McGhee vs Nascimento Tale of the Tape 

Fighter Marcus McGhee Rafael ‘Mulisha’ Nascimento 
Age 32 NA
Height 5’8’’ 5’6’’
Record 4-0 6-1
Career Submissions, TKO  0, 4 2, 0 
Fighter Training Camp NA  XGym 

McGhee has a better finishing ratio, and his fighting footage shows good boxing in and out of the clench, but his grappling hasn’t been tested by decent fighters. Still Nascimento is a slow starter and doesn’t swing with much power. Fight footage is limited for both men. 

Prediction: McGhee -190

McGhee pays winnings of $52.63 per $100 wagered at a 65% probability of winning. He’s the better striker by far, and Nascimneto’s only loss has come by knockout. Expect McGee to keep the fight standing and do everything he can to avoid groundwork. 

LFA 135 Value Bet: Maria Henderson -500 vs Melanie McIntyre +375

Henderson is a 3-0 amatuer making her pro debut. She has multiple submission wins, and a strong background with the MMA Lab in Arizona. She’s facing an amatuer ona two fight skid who is also making her pro debut. One of those losses was a round five submission in 2018. McIntyre trains with Six Feet Under fight team. 

Prediction: Henderson -500

While I’m not confident enough to put this on a parlay, I’m happy to place a reasonable bet on the favorite for a ⅕ return on your wager. She’s a good fighter at a fantastic school. For both fighters, this is their toughest challenge to date. 

LFA 135 Parlay Pick: An Ho -900 vs Matt Barro +550

Ho is an undefeated Chinese pro with a 7-0 amatuer record that included five stoppages. His spinning back fist win in his pro debut took under three minutes. Barro is 0-1 training out of Mercs JJ and Fitness; home to a few mid level fighters like Edwin Chavez of Fury FC. The LFA 135 odds accurately reflect Barro’s chances of success. 

Prediction: An Ho

An Ho is a force on the ground and the feet. He has good coaching, and offers an $11.11 return per $100 wager. 

Cedric Katambwa -240 vs James Hay +190

Cedric was a 6-1 amatuer with multiple decision wins. He won a decision in his pro debut, and now faces Hay, a decision grappler with several finishes to his name. 

Prediction: Katambwa +190

While Katambwa has holes in his finishing mechanics, his stand up is better than Hay’s. Hay fails to take fighters down and wastes a bit too much time to win the decision. 

LFA 135 Value Bet: Nick Alwag +375 vs Angel Atoigue -500

Angel is a 4-0 amatuer with three finishes. He’s a former high level wrestler and has a future in the sport. Alwag has been struggling against other debuting fighters and produced a losing amatuer record of 2-6-2. 

Prediction: Angel Atoigue

Take the $20 per $100 wagered on Angel and run with it. I’m not excited to parlay too many debuting fighters, but Angel might be a good choice. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.