There is no better way to kick off a long 162-game regular season than by nailing a parlay on Opening Day! And that is just what we did yesterday when we binked our 3-team totals parlay for an attractive $600 payout. And while that hit was more than enough to get us up on the day, we were oh so close to scooping the world with a 9-5 overall record on the day. Of those 5 losses, the Chicago White Sox blowing their late lead against the Los Angeles Angels hurt the most, as we would have hit another 3-team money line parlay had they held on for the win.
Day 1 of baseball in the books! pic.twitter.com/xzPUkWqGI2
— MLB (@MLB) April 2, 2021
3 of those 5 losses came late in the games, on walk-offs, so we were very close to hitting everything on a profitable Opening Day of Major League Baseball action. Today the MLB slate is fairly light, with only 7 games on the schedule, but that shouldn’t slow us down in terms of finding value. Let’s get started with today’s Parlay of the Day Major League Baseball betting picks!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners (-122)
The Seattle Mariners had a little Opening Day magic last night when they came back from a 6-1 deficit in the 8th inning to shock the San Francisco Giants in extra innings to start their season out undefeated. The Giants bullpen took an absolute beating as they used six different relievers and the group was collectively rocked for 7 runs in just 2.1 innings pitched. The teams run it back again tonight in Seattle, with the Giants sending former ace Johnny Cueto to the bump to square off against the Mariner’s Yusei Kikuchi.
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) April 2, 2021
Cueto was once one of the top pitchers in all of baseball, but those days are long gone, as he has posted ERA’s north of 5 runs in each of the last 2 seasons. Cueto has lost the zip on his fastball, and that has led to a significantly higher home run rate, and he has struggled with command as well, as he is walking far too many hitters. For Kikuchi, the Asian import had an up and down season last year but had flashes of being very good at times. I expect solid results out of Kikuchi this season as he gets more acclimated to working in the Big Leagues.
This feels like a momentum spot if you ask me. The Mariners should be riding high after their big comeback last night, and with Johnny Cueto at the tail end of his career, it wouldn’t shock me to see him get roughed up in this one. And even if Cueto does slow down the Mariners, we saw what happened to the Giants bullpen last night. Expect a higher-scoring game where Seattle finds a way to gut out another win over the Giants as small home favorites.
Tampa Bay Rays (-104) at Miami Marlins
Yesterday’s Rays and Marlins game went almost exactly how I expected it to go. I was on the Rays and the under, and Tampa Bay won the game 1-0. In true Kevin Cash form, he yanked Ray’s starter Tyler Glasnow after 6 innings of one-hit, shutout ball, on only 77 pitches. Cash famously pulled Blake Snell out when he was spinning a gem in the World Series last year, and despite that decision going terribly, he has shown he is going to stick to his guns here in 2021, and this time the gamble paid off as the Ray’s bullpen didn’t allow a run and held onto the win for Tampa Bay. I would expect a very similar game today between these two teams as they are both weak at the plate, and they both have solid starters on the mound.
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) April 1, 2021
Ryan Yarbrough will start for Tampa Bay, and he is looking to build upon last year, where he posted the lowest ERA of his short career in limited action. Yarbrough has a lifetime record of 28-16 with an ERA below 4 runs, and he has quickly become an arm the Rays can count on to put in good work. For Miami, Pablo Lopez had an excellent start to his season last year as he was 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA through his first 5 starts. Hitters started to figure Lopez out a bit in the 2nd half, though, as his numbers dropped, but at 25-years old, he remains a major part of this youth movement and rebuild for the Marlins. I expect nearly a carbon copy of yesterday’s game today. Both starters will be solid, and you can expect another low-scoring affair where the Rays knock off Miami in a tight one.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (-186)
We didn’t get to see these teams play yesterday as the rain caused a delay, but we are hopeful that these teams will get a game in today, weather permitting, of course. Nathan Eovaldi went from Red Sox World Series hero to regular season disaster, back to being decent again last year. It has been a whirlwind of results for Eovaldi, and last season he was able to control his pitches much better than in recent years, which has always been one of the biggest headwinds holding him back from reaching his full potential.
— Red Sox (@RedSox) April 2, 2021
John Means nearly took home the Rookie of the Year honors in the AL in 2018 when he burst onto the scene for Baltimore with 12 wins and a 3.60 ERA. 12 wins isn’t that great of a total for most guys, but when you consider the fact that Means won 12 games for a Baltimore team that was one of the worst teams in the Major League, it was actually quite impressive. Last year, Means wasn’t nearly as sharp, as he tried too hard to strike everyone out, and it led to poor results. We saw that again from Means this spring as he got hammered to the tune of a 7.11 ERA in 6 spring starts. Means has a bright future, but Baltimore is going to lose 100+ games again and finish in last place, and this is just a bad spot for him. I’ll lay a little wood and expect Boston to win their home opener in this one.
Point Spread Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Seattle Mariners -122
- Tampa Bay Rays -104
- Boston Red Sox -186
$100 Bet Wins $449
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end, up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies Over 12 Runs
We took the over 11 runs yesterday in the series opener between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Colorado Rockies, and they didn’t make us sweat it out too hard as the game sailed to the over with an 8-5 final score. Somehow with all of that scoring, there wasn’t a single home run, and at Coors Field, that is a hard thing to do as baseballs love to fly out of Coors Field. Today the team’s rematch, and I would expect another high-scoring game. Trevor Bauer is the man, but even when he pitches well, he tends to give up a lot of home runs. In 2019 Bauer allowed a whopping 34 dingers, one of the highest totals in the majors. The same thing can be said for Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela, as he is prone to giving up the long ball as well. Expect even more runs in this one than last night’s game, and the over shouldn’t be much of a sweat.
Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins Under 7.5 Runs (-110)
We just talked about how I see this game going a lot like yesterday’s Marlins/Rays game, and I will jump on the under 7.5 runs again today. We have a nice combination of good starting pitching, strong bullpens, and weak-hitting, that is going to lead to a lot of low-scoring games when these teams match up. Kevin Cash starts playing matchup baseball as early in the game as possible, even when it means pulling his starter who can’t be touched, and even though it can be frustrating at times for Rays fans, it does lead to a low of wins for Tampa Bay. This feels like a 3-1 Tampa Bay victory.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
Dallas Keuchel was a star for the Houston Astros in his long stint in H-Town. Since leaving Houston, Keuchel has been a bit of a hired gun. He spent one year in Atlanta, where he posted a 3.75 ERA and helped lead the Braves to the postseason. Last year, the White Sox brought him in to help give them some veteran support, and he was light’s out with a 1.99 ERA in 11 starts. He has used his trademark ability to force ground balls to produce some stellar stats for whatever team is the highest bidder. Neither of these teams looked great at the plate yesterday, and I see Keuchel pitching to contact and keeping the Angels off of the basepaths. We are going to sweat this one out as these teams have some heavy hitters, but it should come in just under, let’s call it, a 5-3 final score.
Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
I love this matchup between Houston and Oakland today as it features two of the best young pitchers in the game. Jesus Luzardo has electric stuff and Cristian Javier is nasty too. Luzardo got his first shot of being an everyday pitcher last year and showed a lot of upside on the mound, finishing in 8th place for the AL Rookie of the Year award with a 4.12 ERA and a K/9 ratio of 9.0. Luzardo was a blue-chip prospect that everyone expects will eventually turn into an ace in Oakland, but the same can’t be said for the Astros, Cristian Javier. Javier kind of came out of nowhere last year and finished in 3rd for that same Rookie of the Year award when he posted a 3.48 ERA in 10 starts. Javier posted epic K numbers in the minors and could develop into one of the best strikeout guys in the AL this year. Expect these guys to duel it out and keep this one on the lower-scoring side of things.
San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners Over 8.5 Runs (-110)
We touched on this game earlier, and I explained why I think this game is going to end up going over. The Mariners have a nice young core of hitters, but their bullpen is a bit of a mess, and they are going to be in a lot of higher-scoring games this season. The Giants are in the same boat, as they finished 5th in the National League in runs scored last year, but with washed-up starters like Johnny Cueto expected to eat up a bunch of innings, the Giants are going to have to win most of their games in slugfests.
Money Line Magic Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies Over 12 Runs -110
- Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins Under 7.5 Runs -110
- Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels Under 8.5 Runs -110
- Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics Under 8.5 Runs -110
- San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners Over 8.5 Runs -110
$100 Bet Wins $2,000
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically everyday betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+195) at San Diego Padres
There is no higher value play anywhere in sports betting than taking underdogs in Major League Baseball. The best teams in the league win about 60% of their games, and the worst teams in the league still usually manage to win about 40% of their games. This isn’t the NFL where teams can go undefeated or the NBA where the elite teams rarely lose. Good teams lose to bad teams all the time in baseball. That is what is going to happen here. The Padres nearly blew a big lead last night in the series opener, holding on for an 8-7 victory, and they are significantly overvalued in this game, and I am going to tell you why.
Fought hard but came up just shy. 161 games still to play though. pic.twitter.com/46CGz7YOdX
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) April 1, 2021
Merrill Kelly was a late bloomer as he didn’t make his Major League debut until he was 30 years old, but he has been great since finally getting the call-up. Last year, Kelly was nearly unhittable with a 2.59 ERA in 5 starts. I don’t want to put too much emphasis on such a small sample size of results, but he dominated the Padres last year, throwing 12.2 innings of work across two starts and only gave up just a single run while picking up wins in both starts. You hate to fade a team as good as the Padres with a starter like Blake Snell on the mound, but this is a bad number, and we are going to take advantage of it. High risk, high reward.
Houston Astros (+118) at Oakland Athletics
I am a Cristian Javier fanboy, and there might not be another player in the American League that I expect a bigger breakout season from than Javier. In 2019 he posted a K/9 ratio of 13.5 in triple-A ball, and once he started settling in last season, we started to see that this guy can absolutely make hitters swing and miss. The Astros used him out of the bullpen in the postseason last year, and against Oakland, he pitched 3.1 innings, striking out 6 guys, and didn’t allow a run. I took Houston as dogs yesterday, and it came in, and I am taking them as dogs again today as I just can’t pass up on backing the better overall team with a stud like Cristian Javier on the mound.
Chicago White Sox (+100) at Los Angeles Angels
The White Sox broke my heart yesterday, but I am going to give them the chance to make up for it today, as I will again back them as underdogs against the Los Angeles Angels. Dallas Keuchel hasn’t posted an ERA north of 4 runs since 2016, and he is just too consistently good not to want to take him against what could end up being a fairly weak-hitting Angels team. Yeah, the Halos have guys like Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon, and Mike Trout, but they are also going to get a lot of at-bats out of guys like Max Stassi, Jose Iglesias, and David Fletcher. Even if the Angels are able to get to Keuchel, they are still going to have to rely on their god-awful bullpen to close the game out, and I just can’t trust the Angels right now.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Arizona Diamondbacks +195
- Houston Astros +118
- Chicago White Sox +100
$100 Bet Wins $1,186
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!