Yesterday we learned the power of juice. We posted a rather mediocre 7-7 overall record on the day, but we were able to get some significant dog money on a couple of plays, which ensured that when the day was over, we still booked a winner. The headline underdog came to us in Philly where I faded Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets as -200 betting favorites and cashed a ticket. We also found dog winners on the Dodgers run line and the St. Louis Cardinals. Had the Houston Astros not blown their 4-run lead late in the game, we would have scooped the world with another big dog. We are back on the hunt for value gain today with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals (-120)
Max Scherzer is getting pretty old, but I am shocked to see that I can back Mad Max at such a reasonable price. For more than a decade, it has always cost -200 or more to get behind Scherzer, and while the Braves are a really good team, they aren’t playing very well right now, as they are coming off of getting swept in a 3-game series to the Philadelphia Phillies and they hit this game still looking for their first win of the season. Scherzer still had it had last year at age 35 with a K/9 ratio of 12.3.
For the first time since Game 5 of the 2019 World Series…
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) April 6, 2021
Atlanta will start Drew Smyly, opposite Scherzer, hoping that he can recreate last year’s success with the San Francisco Giants when he posted a 3.42 ERA. Smyly and Scherzer used to be teammates early in their careers in Detroit, and while Smyly has had some nice seasons, this is a mismatch on the mound. This is Opening Day for Washington, as they saw their first series get canceled due to COVID-19, and you can expect the Nats to play hard and take care of business at home.
St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins (-134)
Sandy Alcantara is a really good young starting pitcher. Alcantara actually started out his career with St. Louis but was one of the big pieces of the deal that brought Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis in 2018. In his time with the Marlins, Alcantara has established himself as the ace of this young staff, posting a 3.61 ERA for the Fish. Alcantara looked to be in mid-season form in his first start of the year, throwing 6 shutout, 2-hit innings, against the reigning American League champion Tampa Bay Rays.
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) April 6, 2021
John Gant has worked elusively out of the bullpen in the last couple of seasons for the Cardinals, and he was really good. Last year, Gant posted a 2.40 ERA in 17 appearances. The Cards will give him a shot to start this season, and it is a bit risky, as they don’t want to run the risk of losing their best long relief guy by turning him into a mediocre starter. The Cardinals won game one of this series yesterday, and I like Miami to tie the series up tonight behind a strong outing from Sandy Alcantara.
New York Mets (-121) at Philadelphia Phillies
Yesterday we faded the New York Mets with their ace Jacob deGrom on the mound. For whatever reason, the Mets just don’t seem to win all that often when deGrom pitches, despite the fact that he is almost always very good. That hasn’t been the case with Marcus Stroman for New York, though, as the Mets are 8-3 with Stroman on the mound. He missed all of last season due to COVID-19, and if New York has any shot at hanging around at the top of the loaded NL East Division, they need Stroman to be good.
Ready to keep it rolling. #RingTheBell
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) April 6, 2021
The Phillies are playing as well as any team in baseball with a 4-0 undefeated record on the year. Nearly all of the credit for that success goes to the pitching staff, as they have held teams to an average of just 1.5 runs per game. I am not so sure that the Phillies are going to keep up that success tonight though, with veteran starter Chase Anderson getting the start. Anderson was awful last year for the Toronto Blue Jays with a 7.22 ERA and is glad to be back pitching in the National League, where he has a lifetime 53-40 record with a 3.94 ERA. Was it the heavy bats in the AL that did Anderson in? Or was it the fact that he is now 33 years old and likely past his prime? Either way, I am fading him today and backing the Mets.
Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Washington Nationals -120
- Miami Marlins -134
- New York Mets -121
$100 Bet Wins $485
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end, up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs Under 9 Runs (-110)
Brewer’s fans have to be wondering when former MVP Christian Yelich is going to snap out of his funk. Yelich was bad last year, and after getting a couple of hits on Opening Day and making Brewer’s fans feel like maybe this nightmare is over, he is just 1 for his last 11 since. On the year, he is hitting only .200, and it has really hurt the Brewers overall, as they are averaging just 1.6 runs per game over their last 3 games. The Brew Crew couldn’t get to Cub’s starter Trevor Williams yesterday, and I don’t see them having much success against Adbert Alzolay today either. Chicago hasn’t been much better at the plate than Milwaukee, with just over 4 runs per game, and this feels like another low-scoring game, so I’ll jump on the under.
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Under 9 Runs (-110)
Tyler Glasnow is absolutely filthy. On Opening Day, Glasnow was nearly unhittable, allowing just 1-hit in 6 innings of shutout ball. The Red Sox exploded for 11 runs last night in game one of this series, but I think that they probably emptied the clip in that one, and I expect them to revert back to how they looked in their first series of the year, where they managed just 5 runs in 3 games against the hapless Baltimore Orioles. We all know the Rays can’t score many runs, so as long as Glasnow does what I think he will do, we won’t even have to sweat this total at all. I am going under.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Under 9 Runs (-110)
We have a blockbuster matchup on the mound in this game as Zack Greinke and Dylan Bundy could both end the year getting Cy Young Award votes in the AL. Greinke shut down the Oakland A’s in his first start of the season, going 6 innings and now allowing even a single run. Bundy wasn’t quite as sharp, but he did have a nice outing against the Chicago White Sox, giving up 3 earned runs in 6 innings of work. Both of these teams are playing good baseball right now, as they share the best record in the AL at 4-1, and I am thinking this is another competitive game that stays under the total with solid starters on the mound.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs Under 9 Runs -110
- Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Under 9 Runs -110
- Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Under 9 Runs -110
$100 Bet Wins $600
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
Houston Astros (-105) at Los Angeles Angels
Speaking off that game between LA and Houston, I will stay right here in the City of Angels for my next bet. At some point, Zack Greinke is going to start to look his age, but we aren’t there yet as this guy remains elite at age 37. In his 2-year stint with Houston, he is 12-4 with a 3.38 ERA, and if his last start is any indication of things to come, he still has plenty of gas left in the tank. The Astros are coming off of their first loss of the season last night, but it didn’t have to be that way, as the Astros led 4-0 early on and still held a 5-3 lead heading into the bottom of the 8th inning. Houston gets their revenge tonight in a tight one.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+138) at Cincinnati Reds
I almost don’t believe it myself, but here I am, making a bet on the worst team in all of baseball, the Pittsburgh Pirates. I expected Pittsburgh to be the worst team in the NL this year, and they haven’t let me down as they are 1-3 on the year and hit this game riding a 3-game losing streak. But I also expected that the Cincinnati Reds would be bad this year as well, and they are playing great baseball at the moment. This is a play that I call a reverse heat check. When a shooter gets hot in the NBA, they start to jack up reckless shots as a heat check to see how far they can push it. What ends up happening more times than not is that the shooter shoots himself right out of his hot streak and ends up cold.
Tonight's final. pic.twitter.com/LOrDTPdBh4
— Pirates (@Pirates) April 6, 2021
Baseball is all about regression to the mean over the course of a long regular season. Pittsburgh is bad, but they aren’t this bad, and Cincinnati is nowhere near as good as they have looked this season. Neither one of these streaks will last much longer, and I will try and get ahead of that curve and back the Pirates as big dogs against Wade Miley. If all you ever do is bet against Wade Miley as a favorite, you are going to make a lot of money, and that is just what I will do in this one.
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners (+140)
James Paxton was the ace in Seattle during his time with the Mariners. Paxton rolled up a 41-26 record with Seattle, including a 3.42 ERA. Paxton was traded to the New York Yankees, and despite having a decent amount of success in the Bronx, including winning 15 games in his debut season with New York, they let him go in the offseason, and Seattle saw the opportunity to bring the Big Maple back to the Emerald City and took it. Paxton looked amazing this spring with a 1.08 ERA in 2 starts, and I like a play on him as such a significant home dog. I don’t love being on the other side of White Sox starter Lucas Giolito, but the White Sox have been shaky out of the gates, and the Mariners are primed for an upset.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Houston Astros -105
- Pittsburgh Pirates +138
- Seattle Mariners +140
$100 Bet Wins $1015
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Runs (+104) at Boston Red Sox
I don’t think the Boston Red Sox are going to score against Tyler Glasnow. If that indeed ends up being the case, it’s hard not to love the Red Sox to get blown out at home. Even if that “blowout” ends up looking something like 3-0 Tampa Bay. The Rays don’t score many runs, so you won’t see me taking them on the run line very often this year, but in this spot, at this price, I will make a stand on Tampa Bay and expect a multi-run victory for the Rays.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees -1.5 Runs (-135)
I hate myself nearly every time that I take a home team on the run line, but I can’t fight off the urge to back Gerrit Cole against the Baltimore Orioles. Cole obliterated the Orioles last season to the tune of a 1.83 ERA with a whopping 26K’s in 3 starts. The Orioles made Jordan Montgomery look like Greg Maddux yesterday, and I can’t imagine they are going to be much better tonight against Gerrit Cole. Yesterday the Yankees beat the Orioles 7-0, and I am thinking we see something similar tonight in this one.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (-118)
I already talked about the Brewer’s struggles at the plate, and it’s strange to see this number so tight. By the end of the year, I expect the Cubs to be 10-15 games better than Milwaukee. The fact that I can back them in this matchup at close to even money shows some outrageous value. Freddy Peralta hasn’t been an everyday starter since 2018, and after spending the last two seasons working in relief, he gets called on to start today against the Cubs. Adbert Alzolay has only made a handful of starts in his career, but he was solid in limited action last season, and he rates out similarly to Peralta. In a spot where the starters are both question marks, I always will lean on the better overall team. Throw in the fact that the Cubs are playing at home and have played well to start out of the season, and I love backing the Cubbies.
Toronto Blue Jays (-134) at Texas Rangers
The Toronto Blue Jays are hoping to give the New York Yankees a run for their money in the AL East this year. They knocked off the Yankees two games to one in their first series of the season, and they followed that up by beating the Texas Rangers yesterday. If Toronto is going to manage to stay in the playoff hunt, they have to win games like these ones against bad teams. You don’t see New York blowing games to the Orioles or Tigers very often, and Toronto has to get on that level if they want to compete with New York. While Dane Dunning is a blue-chip prospect of the highest regard, he isn’t ready to stand up to this powerful Blue Jays lineup. The Blue Jays will show they are for real by winning this game and many games like it this season. Good teams beat bad teams.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies (-124)
German Marquez has found out a way to not get blasted at Coors Field. With his ability to keep the ball from going over the fence at Homer Happy Coors Field, he gives his team a chance to win every time he pitches. One guy that hasn’t been able to post respectable results has been the DBacks starter, Luke Weaver. Weaver was 1-9 last season with an ERA approaching 7 runs. Both of these teams have played poorly, and somebody has to win this game. The Rockies feel undervalued at just -124 as Luke Weaver losses games at an elite level. Give me the Rockies as small home-field favorites.
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Runs (-110) at Oakland Athletics
I have bet against the Oakland Athletics in every game they have played this season. I would like to say I am not an A’s hater this season, but I most certainly am. I just don’t think they are going to be any good this year, yet they are still being consistently priced as a good team. At some point, the books are going to catch on to the fact that they lost most of their talent from last year’s squad and replaced it with a bunch of worn-out has-beens, but they haven’t yet. The Dodgers are going to dominate this game. Oakland is 0-5, and they have gotten blown out every game. I am sure that trend isn’t going to stop tonight against the best team in baseball with Clayton Kershaw on the mound.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Runs +104
- New York Yankees -1.5 Runs -135
- Chicago Cubs -118
- Toronto Blue Jays -134
- Colorado Rockies -124
- Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Runs -110
$100 Bet Wins $3,850
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!