While we didn’t have a blazing hot day yesterday betting on Major League Baseball, we found more than our fair share of winners, and several of them came at attractive prices. We backed the Baltimore Orioles (+115) and Seattle Mariners (+125) as underdogs and got the Arizona Diamondbacks (-125), Boston Red Sox (-157), Houston Astros (-122), and Cleveland Indians (-134) all as small favorites and cashed a bunch of winners. Both the Mariners and the Orioles have emerged as great underdog play candidates as Seattle leads all of baseball with 14 wins as dogs, and the O’s are tied for 3rd with 11 underdog wins so far this season.
That's a 15-12 April 👏 pic.twitter.com/9UWFZjeefe
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) May 1, 2021
Checking in on how teams are performing as favorites and dogs is very important. The past doesn’t always predict the future, but it does tell you when the public and the books are overrating or underrating a team consistently. Handicapping Big League Baseball is all about value, and if the books are missing on a team consistently, you need to take notice. The top underdog teams this season have been the Mariners, DBacks, Brewers, Orioles, Pirates, and Rangers, as all of those teams have double-digit wins right now as betting underdogs. We will get right back to finding value today, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (-129)
The New York Mets flat out can’t hit the baseball. New York has the fewest runs scored and home runs of any team in baseball, and they have scored 1 run or less in 4 of their last 5 games. On the year, they have failed to score more than 2 runs in a game 8 times already, with only 20 total games played. Their best hitter right now is starting pitcher Jacob deGrom, as he is hitting .462. Lineup mainstays like Pete Alonso, Frankie Lindor, Jeff McNeil, and James McCann are all mired in nasty season-long slumps. It is hard to imagine that New York breaks out of this slump today against Phillies starter Zack Wheeler, as Wheeler has been solid this year for Philadelphia.
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) May 1, 2021
Wheeler is coming off of his best start of the season, where he tossed 8 1-run innings against the St. Louis Cardinals, allowing just a single hit. This was the second time this year that Wheeler was stingy on hits as he worked 7 innings against the Atlanta Braves a month ago, where he didn’t give up a run and only allowed Atlanta to get 1 hit. Taijuan Walker has had a nice start to his season as well, but if the Mets don’t score any runs, they can’t win this game no matter how well Walker pitches. Neither of these teams are playing very well right now, but I just can’t trust this Mets lineup with how poorly they are swinging the bats. Give me the Phillies in a tight one.
St. Louis Cardinals (-148) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Cardinal’s starter Jack Flaherty has been great at times, and other times, yeah, not so much. But his inconsistent results haven’t really hurt the Cardinals at all, as all they do when Flaherty pitches is win baseball games. St. Louis is 5-0 in Flaherty’s 5 starts this season, and his 4 wins are tied for the most in MLB. The Cardinals are averaging nearly 10 runs per game of run support for Flaherty, and that has helped make up for him not always being sharp. I see plenty of runs coming today for St. Louis against Pirate’s starter Trevor Cahill.
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) May 1, 2021
Cahill has been very hot and cold for the Pirates as he was good in 2 starts and terrible in his other 2 this year. The combined totals aren’t pretty as he is 1-2 with a 7.11 ERA, and the Pirates have lost 3 of his 4 outings. The Cardinals are playing their best ball of the season right now, as they have won 6 of 8, and I like them to win again tonight in Pittsburgh. St. Louis was able to beat the Pirates last night when Pittsburgh had their best starter in JT Brubaker on the mound, and with Trevor Cahill going today, I see the Red Birds winning this one going away.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (-157)
The Chicago Cubs are in free fall right now with a 1-6 record in their last 7 games. The bats have gone cold, and their pitching has been all over the place. The one starter they did have that was pitching well, Jake Arrieta, got rocked last night to the tune of 7 earned runs, and with Zach Davies starting today, it is only going to get worse for the Cubbies. Zach Davies is in the running for the worst pitcher in the National League right now, as he has been awful. Davies is 1-2 with a 9.47 ERA in 5 starts for the Cubs. On the road, he is 0-1 with a sky-high 20.25 ERA in 2 starts.
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) May 1, 2021
The Reds bats have cooled down just a bit as of late, but Cincy still leads all of MLB in runs scored and home runs, and they are going to hammer Zach Davies in this one. Luis Castillo isn’t pitching very well right now, and he is likely to give up some runs too, but this is a complete mismatch on the mound, as Castillo has a long history of being a strong starting pitcher and just needs to focus on limiting base runners as his WHIP is far too high. This game could easily turn into a shootout, and I can’t imagine a team I would rather back in a shootout than this Red’s team that scores more runs than any team in the game.
Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Philadelphia Phillies -129
- St. Louis Cardinals -148
- Cincinnati Reds -157
$100 Bet Wins $387
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end, up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Over 9 Runs (-110)
Speaking of that Cubs and Reds game, I will jump on the over, as I see fireworks happening in Cincinnati today. Both Zach Davies and Luis Castillo have been bad this year, and the Reds bullpen is the worst in the National League in terms of staff ERA. This feels like one of those 10-9 type games where the team that gets to hit last ends up winning the game. Cincy wins this one, and it sails over the total in a slugfest.
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers Over 8.5 Runs (-110)
The Boston Red Sox have scored the 2nd most runs in the American League this season, and their league-leading .437 slugging percentage tells me that they hit the baseball hard. No team has more extra-base hits this year than the Red Sox do, and I think they are going to run up the score on the Texas Rangers today on the road. Texas starter Jordan Lyle has been average at best this season, and in his last outing, he got obliterated for 7 earned runs on a whopping 10 hits and 3 walks in just 2.2 innings pitched.
Big day for the home run cart.
— Red Sox (@RedSox) May 1, 2021
Lyles has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 4 starts, and after seeing what Boston did yesterday to Rangers starter Kohei Arihara, touching him up for 6 earned runs and running him from the game in the 3rd inning, things could get mighty ugly for Jordan Lyles and the Rangers today at home. Boston might send this game over the total all on their own, but if they don’t, Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodrigeuz is always good for giving up at least a couple of runs as well. Over, over, WAY over, today in Arlington.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8 Runs (-110)
I take the over in the Arizona Diamondbacks games nearly every day. The DBacks have great bats and weak pitching, and that has led to a ton of high scoring games. Arizona has scored at least 5 runs in a game 5 times in their last 6 contests, and on the season, they have scored at least 5 runs 17 times! The DBacks are going to do more than their part to push this game to the over against Rockies starter Auston Gomber, who has a 6.65 ERA and gave up 9 earned runs in his last start in just 1.2 innings of work. Zac Gallen has been sharp for Arizona, so the Rockies may not score many runs, but with how the DBacks are swinging the bat right now, it might not make a difference.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Over 9 Runs -110
- Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers Over 8.5 Runs -110
- Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8 Runs -110
$100 Bet Wins $600
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
Baltimore Orioles (+170) at Oakland Athletics
I backed Baltimore yesterday as big underdogs based on my confidence in Orioles starter John Means. Means didn’t disappoint, as he pitched 7 innings and gave up just 2 runs on only 3 hits. Today, I am going to back the Orioles, again as big dogs, but this time it is more of a fade of Athletics starter Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo has electric stuff, and at some point, this kid is going to be an All-Star, but right now, he is struggling. Luzardo has an ERA north of 5 runs and was charged with the loss in his last start against these very same Orioles. Luzardo didn’t pitch all that bad against Baltimore his last time out, but he did lose the game, so it is a bit surprising that the books have made him such a big favorite today just a few days later.
Dubs after dark. pic.twitter.com/fBZAegsmVi
— Baltimore Orioles 😷 (@Orioles) May 1, 2021
I am very hesitant to call this rough patch for the A’s a slump, as they have been very good for the last several weeks, but they are just 2-4 in their last 6 games, and they have lost to the Orioles the last 2 times they have played them, with both games coming in the last week. That doesn’t sound like a situation where a team should be laying -200, does it? I’ll take the O’s as big dogs and relay on the fact that Baltimore already has 11 wins as dogs so far in 2021.
Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (+100)
Josh Fleming isn’t a household name for the Tampa Bay Rays, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a quality starting pitcher. Fleming hasn’t had a ton of Big League experience, but what we have seen from him has been great. Last year, he made his MLB debut for the Rays and went 5-0 with a 2.78 ERA. In spring training, Flemming worked 8.2 innings and didn’t allow a run. And so far, this season, in 3 appearances, 2 of them coming as starts, he has posted a 1.23 ERA. The Astros have played well in the last week or so, but I just have this weird gut feeling that they are going to struggle today on the road. Houston has lost 3 of Jose Urquidy’s last 4 starts, and I think the Rays sneak away with a low-scoring and hard-fought victory today at home.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers (+110)
Well, folks, we can officially say the Los Angeles Dodgers are slumping. It’s like the San Diego Padres stole their souls when they beat them 4 times in their last 5 meetings, as the Dodgers just haven’t looked the same ever since. LA has lost 9 of their last 12 games, and for just the 3rd time this season, I will fade the Boys in Blue. The Brewers are now tied with the San Francisco Giants for the best record in the National League, and after beating the Dodgers in both games of this series, they are looking for the series win today in game 3.
This team’s special!
After a 16-10 April, get ready for a thrilling May.
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) May 1, 2021
The Brewers have held the Dodgers to just 1 run in each of those 2 games, and with their ace, Brandon Woodruff getting the nod today, it’s hard to think LA is going to be much better. Woodruff has been great all season, and in his last 4 starts, he is posting Cy Young Award level stats. In those 4 outings, Woodruff has pitched 25 innings and given up only 2 total earned runs, on just 6 hits, while striking out 29. The combination of Woodruff pitching his brains out right now, and the Dodgers bats stalled out, has me backing the Brew Crew as home dogs today as they look to make it 3 straight wins over the Dodgers.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Baltimore Orioles +170
- Tampa Bay Rays +100
- Milwaukee Brewers +110
$100 Bet Wins $1,034
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox (-180)
I had no choice but to back Shane Bieber and the Cleveland Indians yesterday, as Bieber has just been too good not to want to back every time he pictures. But now that Bieber isn’t going to be pitching, I will jump over to the other side and back the Chicago White Sox. Chicago brought in Lance Lynn to be an ace starting pitcher for them after he nearly took home the Cy Young Award honors last year for the Texas Rangers, and he has done just that, as he has a 0.92 ERA on the year. Throw in the fact that the White Sox have scored the most runs in the AL, and they had won 8 of 10 before running into the buzzsaw that is Shane Bieber yesterday, and this one feels like free money. Triston McKenzie has some nasty stuff at times, but the Indian’s bats are weak, and Lance Lynn is going to shut them down.
Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays (+114)
We finally get to see what this Toronto Blue Jays lineup was supposed to look like this year as Teoscar Hernandez and Geroge Springer are both back from injuries. Hernandez wasted no time making an impact last night in his first game in over 3 weeks, as he racked up 3 RBI on 2 hits, including a home run, as the Blue Jays blew out the Braves. Toronto is starting to pick up some steam, with wins in 5 of their last 7 games, and with their lineup now intact, I have a feeling the Jays are about to go on a run. Braves starter Charlie Morton has given up 5 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts, and I like the Blue Jays to get to him early and often and to take this game as home dogs.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-195)
I have bet against the Colorado Rockies in nearly every one of their road games this season. Colorado is putrid on the road, with a 1-10 record away from home, and I am getting rich, fading them in hostile territory. I bet against them in each of the first 2 games of this series, and I cashed both bets, and I will wash, rinse, and repeat today for game 3. Zac Gallen has been really good on the mound this season for Arizona, and I already mentioned that I see the DBacks clobbering Rockies starter Austin Gomber. A run line bet has a ton of value here as well, but I won’t be greedy and instead I’ll just pick the low hanging fruit and back the upstart DBacks.
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners (+117)
No team in baseball has won more times this year as underdogs than the Seattle Mariners. That tells me that the books don’t understand how to price the M’s, and I will take advantage of that and keep backing them as long as the books don’t adjust. At some point, the books are going to have to adjust on Seattle, but that hasn’t happened yet, as they won yesterday as dogs, and they are again dogs today against the Angels. Ljay Newsome has been the long relief guy for Seattle this season and has acquitted himself well, with a 1.69 ERA.
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) May 1, 2021
The Mariners are hurting on starters with the losses of both James Paxton and Marco Gonalez and its next man up for Seattle, and that just happens to be Newsome. But when you look over to the other side of the mound and see Angels starter Griffin Canning, who is 0-2 with an 8.53 ERA in 3 road starts this season, you almost have to think that Newsome is the better side of this starting pitching matchup despite his lack of experience starting games. Canning hasn’t made it out of the 3rd inning in either of his last 2 starts, and it is laughable that he is a road favorite against this tragically underappreciated Mariner’s team that is tied for the 3rd most wins in the American League right now.
San Francisco Giants (+155) at San Diego Padres
Everyone expected the National League West to be a very good division this season. But had you asked any “experts” a month ago which team would be in first place on May 1st, I am not sure any of them would have told you it would be the San Francisco Giants. Yet here they are, sitting atop what might be the best division in all of baseball and tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for the best record in the league. San Fran will start Anthony DeSclafani tonight, hoping that he can stay hot, as he has been one of the best pitchers in the league this season. In 5 starts, DeSclafani is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA. He threw a complete game shutout in his last start and has allowed 1 earned run or fewer in 4 out of his 5 starts.
OKAY BUSTER 💪 pic.twitter.com/ojY2KThrmS
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) May 1, 2021
You hate to ever fade a team as talented as the Padres are, with a starter like Blake Snell on the mound, but at the end of the day, a bad number is a bad number, and this is a bad number. Snell has mostly pitched well for the Padres, yet they have still lost 3 of his last 4 starts. Snell has managed to avoid giving up too many runs, but he plays with fire far too often, as he has his highest walk rate ever and his highest WHIP since his rookie year. Snell has yet to record a single win for San Diego, and against this streaking Giants team and the red-hot Anthony DeSclafani, that isn’t going to change today. Give me the Giants in a major upset tonight in sunny San Diego.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Chicago White Sox -180
- Toronto Blue Jays +114
- Arizona Diamondbacks -195
- Seattle Mariners +117
- San Francisco Giants +155
$100 Bet Wins $2,687
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!