It was a nice day at the ballpark for us yesterday as we ran up a 7-5-1 record with a couple of juicy underdog winners. We binked a nice one with the Miami Marlins coming through at (+148), and the Toronto Blue Jays took care of business as well, behind another stellar outing from Hyun Jin Ryu, as small dogs, in Atlanta, against the Braves. We also found winners on the Padres, Phillies, White Sox, and Astros, with a couple of totals winners mixed in as well. All and all, it was a profitable day betting Big League Baseball.
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) May 13, 2021
Today, we get right back on the grind with 12 games on the MLB slate. Highlights in the American League include the Yankees and Rays playing in St. Pete, the A’s and Red Sox fighting over the best record in the league, and the Cleveland Indians heading to Seattle, to play the Mariners. In the NL, the Brewers and the Cardinals lock horns, with both teams starting their respective aces, the DBacks host the Marlins, and the Phillies are in Washington to play the Nationals. As always, we are right here with you, looking for max value, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
Philadelphia Phillies (-104) at Washington Nationals
We open up today’s parlay of the day picks by taking advantage of what can only be described as a bad number. The Washington Nationals have been the laughingstock of the NL East Division all season long, and their .406 winning percentage is the 2nd worst in the league, trailing only the Colorado Rockies. The Nats will start Patrick Corbin, who has a long history of being a top of the rotation type of pitcher, but just hasn’t pitched well this season. Corbin is 1-3 with a 7.36 ERA, and his once eye-popping K/9 ratio that used to clock in at double digits, is now a career-low 6.2. To go along with the career-low K rate, Corbin has his highest walk and home run rates, and all of that has added up to a lot of struggles for the former All-Star.
More business to handle. #RingTheBell
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) May 13, 2021
I likely have given you plenty of reasons to fade the Nationals already, with Corbin struggling and the team failing to win games consistently, but this bet is more than just a fade of the Nats, as there is a lot to like about the Phillies in this matchup as well. Zac Eflin gets the nod for Philly, and unlike Corbin, who is seeing his career fall apart, Eflin is having a breakout season for the Phillies. Eflin has a 3.38 ERA, and he has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 5 of his 7 starts this season, including his last 2 outings. Philly has won 7 of their last 9 games, and they are looking for the sweep today in game 3 of this 3-game set with the Nationals, and I think they are going to get it. I see Philly as fairly big favorites in this matchup, and the fact that I can get them as underdogs is shocking.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (-139)
Yesterday I mentioned that, in my opinion, the Minnesota Twins are the most disappointing team in all of baseball. Despite a playoff-caliber roster, the Twins have been awful, and if it weren’t for what could end up being a historically bad Detroit Tigers team, the Twins would have the worst record in the American League. I faded them yesterday and got paid when they got blown out by the Chicago White Sox 13-8, and I will fade them again today. Michael Pineda has been great for the Twins, but it hasn’t really mattered, as they have lost 3 of his last 5 starts. And in this game, against a White Sox team that leads MLB in batting average and runs per game, it’s hard to expect him to be too good.
José Abreu last night became the 11th player in franchise history to reach 700 RBI, and is one of just five White Sox to hit 200-plus home runs and record 700-plus RBI.
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) May 13, 2021
The same can’t be said for White Sox starter Lance Lynn, as Lynn has been light’s out all season long for the South Siders, with a 3-1 record and 1.52 ERA. The Twins have a powerful lineup, and they are doing a decent job of hitting the long ball, but the consistency just hasn’t been there, and the bats haven’t been able to make up for what has been a bad pitching staff, currently ranked 25th in MLB in terms of team ERA. I could see the White Sox being -180 or better in this game, and this line feels like a bargain. You are what your record is, and right now, that means the White Sox are in 1st place, and the Twins are already a whopping 9 games back.
San Francsico Giants (-155) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Say it with me, the San Francisco Giants are the best team in the National League right now. I know it sounds weird to even say out loud, as basically nobody outside of the Bay Area saw the G-Men doing anything this season, but through the season’s 1st several weeks, the Giants indeed have the best record in the NL. While San Francisco is exceeding nearly all expectations, the Pirates are living up to theirs, as they were expected to be a last place team, and here they are, in last place, with the worst run differential in the league. Anthony DeSclafani has been a big part of all of the success for the Giants, as he is looking like an All-Star with a 2-1 record and 2.40 ERA. Those stats are even more impressive when you look at the fact that 3 of his 7 starts have come against the hard-hitting San Diego Padres.
This afternoon's final. pic.twitter.com/a0SLLBaLek
— Pirates (@Pirates) May 12, 2021
The Pirates are going to try and match DeSclafani with rookie Wil Crowe. Crowe was a former 2nd round draft pick and was brought over from Washington in the trade for Josh Bell. Crowe has only made 7 career starts, and they haven’t gone overly well, as he is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA, and he really struggles with his command, with a W/9 ratio of 6.4. All of these bets so far today have been bad numbers. The Giants are an elite team, with an elite starter on the mound, playing against a last place team, with a rookie pitching that can’t throw strikes. This is basically free money, and I will back the Giants and feel like I am stealing at this price.
Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Philadelphia Phillies -104
- Chicago White Sox -139
- San Francsico Giants -155
$100 Bet Wins $455
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end, up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies Over 11.5 Runs (-110)
There is only one ballpark in the country where I can see a game total of 11.5 and think to myself, man, that total is too low. That ballpark is Coors Field in Colorado. Coors Field is known for its thin Rocky Mountain air, which leads to a lot of high scoring ball games. This game has fireworks written all over it, with Luis Castillo and Chi Chi Gonzalez both having ERAs in the 6-run range and the Reds being one of the harder hitting teams in the game. It wouldn’t shock me if one or both of these teams scored double digits all on their own, and this is one of those games that could end up going WAY over.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays Over 8 Runs (-110)
Yesterday, we saw a pitcher’s duel in Tampa Bay, as the Rays and the Yankees combined for just a single run in the Yankee’s 1-0 victory. But I see today’s game going in the exact opposite direction, as I just can’t trust Rich Hill and Jameson Taillon. The Rays used their bullpen heavily yesterday, and with Rich Hill never getting deep into games at this point in his career, they are going to be overworked again tonight. The Yankees bats are finally starting to heat up, and I have a feeling they are going to break out tonight in Tampa Bay, and we all know that Jameson Taillon is going to give up at least a couple of runs as well, and we likely won’t have to sweat this over bet for very long.
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers Over 6.5 Runs (-110)
This is as good of a starting pitching matchup as you can get in the National League right now. Corbin Burnes and Jack Flaherty are leading the way in the NL CY Young Award race here early in the season, and they are both pitching great. But 6.5 runs is just too low of a total not to go over, no matter who is pitching. The public sees these 2 guys on the mound, and they seem to forget that baseball is a team game, and everyone has bad nights. With a total this low, it only really takes 1 bad inning by either starter, or any reliever, to push this game to the over, and that is exactly what I see happening. More to come on his game below, but I am taking the over.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies Over 11.5 Runs -110
- New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays Over 8 Runs -110
- St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers Over 6.5 Runs -110
$100 Bet Wins $600
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
St. Louis Cardinals (+116) at Milwaukee Brewers
I told you that I was going to dig a little deeper into this game, so I figured, why make you wait, so we will jump right in and break it down. Let me be clear here, what Corbin Burnes is doing is absolutely remarkable. His 49-0 K/W ratio is something we have never seen in baseball history. The kid just quite simply doesn’t walk anybody, and he strikes guys out at a rate that we haven’t seen in a generation. But he looked mortal for the 1st time this season in his last start, as he gave up as many hits and more runs in his last outing, than in his previous 4 starts combined. To make matters worse, after his rough outing, he caught COVID-19 and was shut down for 2 weeks. If there was ever a time that this kid was going to get touched up, it is today, coming off of his worst start of the season and a long layoff.
Tyler ties it! pic.twitter.com/S2Hcu2RVG3
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) May 13, 2021
And when you see how the Cardinals have supported Jack Flaherty this season, Burnes might be in for a long night. No pitcher in baseball has gotten the consistent run support that Jack Flaherty has gotten this season. Flaherty has made 7 starts, and St. Louis has scored him a whopping 66 runs of support. Flaherty has done his part as well, as he has a solid ERA of 2.83. That combination of strong pitching and heavy hitting has led the Cardinals to a 7-0 record when Flaherty starts, with a run differential of +45. As good as Burnes has been this season, the Brewers are somehow just 2-3 in his starts. It hurts me to do it, but I am betting against Corbin Burnes in this one and backing this Cardinals team that has a 14-5 record in the last 3 weeks and can’t seem to lose when Jack Flaherty is on the mound.
Oakland Athletics (-103) at Boston Red Sox
With the win yesterday in Boston, the Oakland Athletics now have the best record in Major League Baseball at 23-15. Shockingly, the A’s still have a negative run differential of -6, suggesting that they just might be getting lucky and that this run isn’t sustainable, but until the A’s cool down, you can make a lot of money backing them. That is what I am going to do today, as I like Sean Manaea in this matchup with Red Sox starter Garret Richards. Oakland has won the last 6 times that Manaea has pitched, and after a bad 1st start of the year, he has held opposing teams to 2 earned runs or fewer in 5 of his last 6 starts. Manaea is hot off of his best start of the season, where he worked into the 8th inning and shut down the Tampa Bay Rays to the tune of just 1 earned run on only 2 hits while striking out 10.
— Oakland A's (@Athletics) May 13, 2021
Garret Richards isn’t much more than an innings eater at this point of his career, and while he has had a couple of bright spots this season for the Red Sox, he has an ERA of 4.54, and Boston has lost 4 of his 7 starts. At Fenway Park, he has been particularly awful, as he is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA, getting blasted for 10 runs in just 6.2 innings worked. The board is full of bad numbers today, and this is another one, as the A’s shouldn’t be underdogs in this game. As great as Boston has been this year, they actually have a losing record at home. The A’s? yeah, all they have done on the road is run up the best winning percentage in the AL. Give me the A’s as dogs.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- St. Louis Cardinals +116
- Oakland Athletics -103
$100 Bet Wins $326
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-118)
Well, I guess there is a 1st time for everything! I have probably bet on the Detroit Tigers at some point this season, but it’s been so long that I can’t remember. There hasn’t been much at all to like about Detroit, and as a general rule, I try not to back the worst team in baseball if I can avoid it. But today, I will take the Tigers, as they are in a great spot against a Royal’s team that has lost 10 straight games. The Royals jumped out to a hot start in April, but if you remember, I warned everyone late in the month that I felt the Royals were frauds, and here they are, riding a long losing streak and getting beaten up nightly.
Going for the sweep today!
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) May 13, 2021
KC will start Daniel Lynch, a 1st round draft pick back in 2018, and as great he might be someday, he isn’t ready to pitch in the show just yet. Lynch has made 2 Big League starts and has gotten obliterated for 11 earned runs in just 5.1 innings. You’re telling me I can fade a team that has lost 10 straight games that is starting a rookie with an ERA of 18.56, and I can do it at nearly even money? Yeah, I guess I’ll bite. The fact that I have to back the Tigers doesn’t make me all that happy, but that is just what I will do as a straight fade of this Royal’s team that is in freefall and their rookie starter that isn’t quite ready for primetime yet.
New York Yankees (-137) at Tampa Bay Rays
We already talked about how I see this game as being a high scoring affair, and if this contest indeed turns into a slugfest, I want to be on the side of the Yankees. New York is quietly sneaking up the standings, and they are an impressive 8-2 in the month of May. Their run of success actually goes back to the end of April, as the Yankees are 14-5 in their last 19 games, going back to April 22nd, and they haven’t lost a series in nearly a month. The Rays have suddenly lost 4 of 5, and after a 5-1 record against the Bronx Bombers in April, you had to see some regression coming for Tampa Bay.
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies (+125)
Luis Castillo is going to get rocked in this game. On the road this season, Castillo is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA, and none of those games came at Coors Field. Now, to be clear, I don’t have much confidence in Rockies starter Chi Chi Gonzalez either, as these hard-hitting Reds bats might light him up too, but at this price in a coin-flip type of game that could go either way, I will make one of my favorites plays, and back the home dog Rockies. As bad as Colorado has been this season, they actually have a winning record at home, and the Reds have struggled on the road. Give me the Rockies in a barnburner; I’ll call it 13-12 Colorado.
Miami Marlins (-120) at Arizona Diamondbacks
We took the Miami Marlins yesterday as big underdogs and got paid, and I will back them again today as small favorites with youngster Trevor Rogers getting the start for the fish. Rogers is 4-2 with a 1.89 ERA and is an early favorite for the NL Cy Young Award. His K/9 ratio of 11.8 is elite and has him ahead of guys like Lucas Giolito, Brandon Woodruff, and Yu Darvish, and he just happens to be tied with Mad Max Scherzer. That is some nice company for the young 23-year-old lefty. Rogers is an ace, but the books haven’t caught on just yet, and he is still being priced reasonably. I will continue to back Rogers as long as the books keep pricing him like this, as he is a budding superstar.
Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners (+105)
Today could be a major turning point in the franchise for the Seattle Mariners. The M’s are expected to call up Jarred Kelenic, baseball’s 3rd ranked prospect, to play tonight in game 1 of this homestand. Seattle is also calling up their best starting pitching prospect as in Logan Gilbert, who will likely start later this week, after being rumored to be starting tonight. I like Kelenic to give the Mariners a much-needed boost at the plate, and the rest of the team has to be happy now that Kyle Lewis is back healthy, and Jerry Dipoto has finally pulled the trigger on bringing his best young players up to the Big Leagues. Kelenic hit .370 at triple-A, and his presence alone is enough to spark Seattle’s lineup, and with all of that positive energy in the air, I’ll take the Mariners to win as home dogs against Cleveland started Zach Plesac, who has been amazing at home, but bad on the road with a 5.84 ERA away from Cleveland.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Detroit Tigers -118
- New York Yankees -137
- Colorado Rockies +125
- Miami Marlins -120
- Seattle Mariners +105
$100 Bet Wins $2,603
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!