It was another great day at the ballpark yesterday betting Big League Baseball, as we ran up an 8-5 overall record, including wins on a couple of money line outright underdogs. Both the St. Louis Cardinals (+116) and the Colorado Rockies (+125) came in as dogs in what turned out to be quite a profitable afternoon of betting. We also found winners on the White Sox, Marlins, Giants, and Tigers, and we nailed a couple of totals bets as well.
Walked away winners of a wild one.#RoxWynn 🖐️
— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) May 14, 2021
It has been a steaming hot week for us betting on Major League Baseball, and we will get right back after it today to kick off what should be an action-packed weekend of games. Highlights on the schedule today include the Braves and Brewers playing in Milwaukee, the Rays hosting the Mets, and the Cardinals playing in sunny San Diego against the Padres. As always, we will be right here with you today, delivering max value, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
Chicago Cubs (-136) at Detroit Tigers
Jake Arietta was pitching really well for the Chicago Cubs until a cut on his thumb shut him down and sent him to the IL. His last start, where he tried to work through the injury, didn’t go well, but it’s easy to look at that bad outing as a reflection of his injured thumb and that is just what I will do. Before that start, Arietta was 3-2 with a 2.57 ERA and was coming off back-to-back starts where he worked a combined 11 innings and allowed just 2 earned runs on only 5 hits. I love Arietta in this game, against a Detroit Tigers team that is the worst hitting team in the American League.
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 12, 2021
The Tigers picked up a sweep over the Kansas City Royals in their last series, but that series said more about the Royals, than it did about the Tigers, as Kansas City has lost 11 straight games. Detroit still has the worst run differential in all of baseball at an embarrassing -66, and even against this Cubs team that has underperformed their expectations, they should be far bigger underdogs in this game. We found several bad numbers yesterday and took advantage of them and got paid, and this is just another bad line that we are going to hammer. Expect Arietta to be sharp again now that he is fully healthy and for the Tigers to do what they do best, lose games. Give me the Cubbies.
New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays (-157)
David Peterson has had his fair share of ups and downs this season, which is understandable for a young pitcher trying to cut his teeth in the Big Leagues. Nearly all of his struggles have come on the road, as in 3 road starts, he is 0-2 with a 7.30 ERA. He finds himself in a tough spot today, matched up with Ray’s starter Tyler Glasnow.
Rays Win! We get another bite at the Big 🍎 starting tomorrow
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) May 14, 2021
Glasnow has been excellent at home in Tampa Bay, with a 2-1 record, 2.18 ERA, with 34 Ks in just 20.2 innings pitched. The Mets have been embarrassingly bad at the plate, and I can’t imagine that they are going to be able to do much off of Tyler Glasnow tonight. New York has scored fewer runs than any other team in the game, and their anemic team slugging percentage of .350 isn’t going to get any better against Tyler Glasnow. The Rays should be priced far higher in this spot with their ace on the mound, particularly when you consider the fact that only 7 of the Mets 18 wins have come on the road. Glasnow is almost always priced at -200 or better, and I will snatch him up in this one at a discount price.
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox (-125)
I guess I just don’t understand what the books see in the Los Angeles Angels this year. Despite being in last place and having the worst team ERA in the majors, the Halos are still somehow either favored or are only small dogs in most games. In this game, they are close to even money against a Boston Red Sox team that has the best record in the American League, on the road, no less! If you just glanced at this line, you would think that maybe Boston was starting a scrub and that the Angels were starting their ace or something, and that is what is keeping this line tight. But that just isn’t the case, as the Red Sox have the better side of the starting pitching matchup as well!
Coast to Coast matchup. pic.twitter.com/5XQB6UgGYl
— Red Sox (@RedSox) May 14, 2021
Nick Pivetta is a perfect 5-0 on the season with a 3.19 ERA. Boston is 6-1 in his 7 starts this year. The Angels will hope that Griffin Canning can figure out how to be better than he has been this season, as he just hasn’t pitched very well. In 4 road starts this year, Canning is 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA. He is going to get hammered by this Red Sox lineup that leads MLB in runs scored. The books have this obsession with the Angels that just doesn’t make any sense, and until they start pricing them like the last place team that they are, I am going to keep finding ways to fade them profitably.
Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Chicago Cubs -136
- Tampa Bay Rays -157
- Boston Red Sox -125
$100 Bet Wins $412
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end, up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox Over 9.5 Runs (-110)
We just talked about how I see the Red Sox lighting up Griffin Canning, and in a game that features a couple of very powerful offenses, playing in one of the best hitting parks in the game, this game could end up being very high scoring. I take the over in Angels games a lot, as they have a putrid bullpen and a great lineup. LA is 5th in the game in slugging percentage, and even though Nick Pivetta has been pitching very well this season, he is bound to give up at least a couple of runs against this Angels team that has power up and down the lineup. I am taking the over.
Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 Runs (-110)
When Max Scherzer pitches, the game totals are rarely higher than 7 or 7.5 runs. That’s because Mad Max rarely ever gives up many runs, and it is hard to have a high-scoring game when you’ve got a guy like Scherzer on the mound that gets deep into games and just doesn’t give up many runs. In his last 6 starts, Scherzer has allowed 1 earned run or less 5 times. The DBacks can score runs, but the last time they faced Mad Max, he worked 7 shutout innings, allowing just 2 hits, and striking out 10. Expect another dominating performance from Scherzer, and if the DBacks can’t score, there is no way this weak Nats lineup will do enough to push this game to the over on their own.
Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins Over 8.5 Runs (-110)
I have been very critical of the Minnesota Twins this season. They have a playoff-caliber roster, yet they are currently sitting with the worst record in the game. Not a bad record, the worst record in all of baseball! But the Twin’s struggles haven’t really been at the plate, as they can hit the ball, they just can’t stop the other team from scoring a bunch of runs. This total feels really low when you look at Matt Shoemaker’s 0-2 record and 9.22 ERA at home, and Frankie Montas isn’t much better, with an ERA north of 5 runs. I could see this game sailing to the over early and will make my play on the over in a high value spot.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox Over 9.5 Runs -110
- Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 Runs -110
- Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins Over 8.5 Runs -110
$100 Bet Wins $600
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
Philadelphia Phillies (+130) at Toronto Blue Jays
I was very high on the Philadelphia Phillies coming into this season, as I really like their roster and see them as a team capable of taking home the NL pennant. They came out of the gates slow to start the season, but they are turning it around here in May, with wins in 7 of their last 10 games. I don’t really see how this game is anything more than a coin flip, as Vince Velasquez has pitched really well after a bad 1st outing, and in May, he has a 1.59 ERA in 2 starts. Steven Matz has been the exact opposite, as he started out his year on fire, with a 4-0 record and 2.31 ERA, but in his last 3 starts, he is getting hammered, allowing a total of 14 earned runs in just 13.2 innings pitched. You could argue that the Phillies should be favored in this game and being able to back them at +130 feels like stealing.
Oakland Athletics (-105) at Minnesota Twins
We already talked about how this is likely going to be a higher scoring game, but I am honestly shocked to see the A’s as underdogs. Why? What could the books possible like about this Twin’s team that is the worst team in baseball and has lost 7 of their last 8? And against the A’s, who are currently tied with Boston for the best record in the AL? Yeah, this one does not compute. This line is in contention for the worst line of the season, and I will hammer on the A’s in a spot where they should be prohibitive favorites as underdogs.
Cincinnati Reds (+100) at Colorado Rockies
We took the Colorado Rockies last night and got paid when they exploded for 13 runs and blew out the Cincinnati Reds. But that bet was a straight fade of Reds starter Luis Castillo, who has been way too bad to ever not want to fade as a big betting favorite. In this game, Cincinnati is going to go with Wade Miley, who has actually been great on the mound for the Reds. I guess the books are expecting Miley to have a letdown game today after he threw a no-hitter against the Cleveland Indians?
Final from Coors: pic.twitter.com/YbkaT32P60
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) May 14, 2021
That’s the only thing here that makes any sense, but after seeing the Reds nearly come back from a 10-run deficit last night against this bad Rockies bullpen, I think they are going to even up this series today at a game apiece. And it’s not like Miley has been bad this year with the exception of the no-no, as he has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 5 of his 6 starts this season. German Marquez has an ERA north of 6 runs at home, and the Red’s heavy-hitting bats are going to jump all over him. The Rockies are tied for the most losses in MLB, and they absolutely should not be favored against any team that is remotely in contention.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Philadelphia Phillies +130
- Oakland Athletics -105
- Cincinnati Reds +100
$100 Bet Wins $799
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
San Francisco Giants -1.5 Runs (-114) at Pittsburgh Pirates
A lot of casual sports bettors will take the run line in a game when they want to bet a big favorite, but they don’t want to lay all of the juice it takes to back a big favorite. That is a terrible strategy. You only want to take a run line bet when you can make a compelling case that your side is going to win the game by multiple runs. 24% of all Major League Baseball games are decided by exactly 1 run, so there is a big built-in roadblock to winning your run line bet, and you need to use it cautiously. That being said, as a successful baseball handicapper, you have to have a big playbook, and there are times when you want to lay that run and a half in a game. This game is one of those times.
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) May 14, 2021
The Giants have the best record in baseball, and in this spot, against the Pittsburgh Pirates, that have the worst run differential in the National League, I smell blowout. Giants starter Kevin Gausman is off to the best start of his career, with an undefeated 3-0 record and a stellar 1.97 ERA. In his last 2 starts, both coming against the very talented San Diego Padres, Gausman worked 12 innings and gave up just 2 earned runs. The Giants won both of those games in blowout fashion, 7-1. The Pirates will try their best to match Gausman, but they are laughably undermanned on the mound and will start rookie Miguel Yajure who will make just his 2nd ever MLB start. In his 1st start, coming 3 weeks ago, he got smashed, as he got rocked for 4 earned runs in just 4.1 innings. That came against the last place Detroit Tigers, and I feel bad for him today as the Giants are going to jump all over him.
New York Yankees -1.5 Runs (-115) at Baltimore Orioles
We already talked about how risky run line bets can be, and while less than 10% of all of my baseball bets are on the run line, I will make a couple of run line plays today in nice spots. The New York Yankees are very quietly climbing up the standings in the AL East, and Corey Kluber is starting to look a lot like the Corey Kluber of old, after a rough start to his season. A month ago, Kluber looked washed up, as he had an ERA of 6.10. But in his last 4 starts, he hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in any start and has given up just 5 earned runs in 25 innings with 23 Ks. Vintage Kluber going against the last place Orioles with Dean Kremer and his 0-3 record and 6.23 ERA on the mound? Yeah, this one is going to get ugly. I’ll lay the run and a half and a little wood and snatch up some free cash on the Bronx Bombers.
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers (-129)
Neither of these teams are playing all that well right now, but I do think the Brewers are a bit undervalued at home with Adrian Houser on the mound. Houser has yet to allow more than 3 earned runs in a game this season, and his ERA is a more than respectable 3.44. The Brewers have a 4-2 record in his last 6 starts and matched up against the Brave’s Drew Smyly, he seems like the side to be on. Smyly was great in his last outing against the Washington Nationals, but I won’t let one nice start against a weak hitting team like the Nats distract me from the fact that he was 0-2 with an 8.05 ERA in April. Atlanta is 1-4 in his starts this year, and I like the Brewers to knock off the Braves at home.
Washington Nationals (-190) at Arizona Diamondbacks
We already talked about this game above, and all I am going to say here is that Max Scherzer is really good at pitching. Scherzer is pitching as well as he ever has, which is certainly saying a lot for the multi-time Cy Young Award winner. I rarely ever lay this much wood in a game, but history tells us that if you can get Mad Max and less than -200 juice, you would be crazy not to take it. This is a small win when it comes in, but sometimes you have to pick the low hanging fruit and get paid. Not all bets can be sexy, but this is the right play.
Miami Marlins (+180) at Los Angeles Dodgers
Well, sometimes you have to swing for the fences! You have to expect the Los Angeles Dodgers to get things figured out at some point, as they undeniably have the best roster in all of baseball. But until they do, I will keep fading them as jumbo favorites. The Boys in Blue took advantage of some soft matchups this week to win 3 of their last 4 against the Mariners and the Angels, but they were 4-14 before this modest winning streak, so they need to do a lot more to convince me they have things headed back in the right direction. Sandy Alcantara is no Clayton Kershaw, but he is a very good pitcher, and at +180, this bet doesn’t have to come in very often for us to show a long-term profit on it. You don’t get high payouts without high risk, and we will back the fish today in LA against a struggling Dodger’s team.
Cleveland Indians (-113) at Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners got no-hit a little over a week ago by the Orioles John Means, and it personified their struggles this year at the plate. The M’s nearly got no-hit again last night by the Indians Zach Plesac, and despite calling up super prospect Jarred Kelenic and getting Kyle Lewis back from a long stint on the IL, this team just isn’t hitting right now. I see them having trouble hitting the baseball again today against Cleveland starter Aaron Civale, as Civale is 5-0 with an ERA of just 2.91. Civale has held back hard-hitting teams like the White Sox, Reds, and Yankees, and he won’t have much trouble with this Mariner’s squad that has managed 2 runs or less in 3 of their last 4 games.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
- Teams Odds
- San Francisco Giants -1.5 Runs -114
- New York Yankees -1.5 Runs -115
- Milwaukee Brewers -129
- Washington Nationals -190
- Miami Marlins +180
- Cleveland Indians -113
$100 Bet Wins $4,919
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!