Yesterday was a day filled with enjoyable wins, but one winning play in particular sticks out as being more satisfying than the rest. If you followed my picks yesterday, maybe you are thinking it was the Red Sox dominating the Angels as laughably underpriced home dogs? Or maybe the Pirates coming from behind to walk it off on the San Francisco Giants as home dogs? Could it have been the Mariners winning, again as home underdogs, against the Cleveland Indians that was my favorite play of the day? Nope, nope, nope. I guess it had to be the Detroit Tiger’s thrilling extra-inning win as get this, home dogs, against the Chicago Cubs, that was my favorite win of the day? Nope, again. As satisfying as it was to cash all of those home underdog winners, the win that felt the best was the over in the Rockies and Reds game.
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) May 16, 2021
I mentioned in my pick yesterday that it is almost unfair to the books that they have to take action on game totals at Coors Field. It is nearly impossible to predict how many runs are going to hit the board in that thin Rocky Mountain air, and you are never out of an over bet, no matter how bleak things are looking. And yesterday, things were certainly looking bleak, as the game was all tied up at 2 runs apiece in extra innings, and our over 10.5 runs bet was in peril. But a combination of the new whacky extra innings rule and Coors Field doing Coors Field things, turned a loser into a winner, as the teams woke up in extra innings, and when the Reds eventually took the game 6-5 in the 12th inning, we cashed an unlikely winner. It feels good to run good, baby! We will look to ride yesterday’s momentum to another big day today, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
San Francisco Giants (-167) at Pittsburgh Pirates
We were able to effectively fade the San Francisco Giants yesterday, as their bullpen blew a 4-0 lead, and the Pirates stole the game. We will switch gears today and jump on the other side and back the G-Men in the series finale of this 4-game set. San Francisco starter Alex Wood has absolutely no business being as good as he has been this season. After a long and successful stint with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Wood has been mostly awful in the last 2 seasons, and when the Giants added him to their rotation this season, it was a low risk, potentially high reward play, on a guy that appeared to be on the downswing of his career. But after starting his season a little bit late due to injury, Wood has been remarkable for the Giants, and his production on the mound is one of the biggest reasons why this Giant’s team has managed to overachieve.
Today's #SFGiants lineup at Pirates.
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) May 16, 2021
Wood is a perfect 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in 5 starts this season. He has yet to allow more than 2 earned runs in any start and he has to be licking his chops today for this matchup with the weak-hitting Pirates. If Pittsburgh has any shot of winning this game and taking the series win, they are going to need Mitch Keller to be a lot better than he has been recently. At home this season, Keller is a dismal 1-3 with a whopping 12.21 ERA. In his last outing, he got hammered by the Cincinnati Reds for 7 runs, all earned, in just 3.1 innings pitched. I looked very hard at taking the run line in this game, as this one has blowout written all over it, but I will make a lower variance, but equally high value play, on the Giants money line instead. Expect Wood to be good, Keller to be bad, and for the Giants to salvage a series split today in the Steel City.
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox (-155)
I love being able to bet against the Los Angeles Angels every day. I got to fade LA yesterday, as they were inexplicitly road favorites over the team with the best record in the American League, the Boston Red Sox. Not shockingly, the Red Sox blew them out, and we cashed a no sweat winner. Today, I will make the same play, as I will again back the AL’s top team at home, as a straight fade of this Angel’s team that is in freefall. Jose Quintana has been a joke for the Angels this season, with an 0-3 record and 9.00 ERA. Surprisingly, he has been decent at home, but on the road, he is 0-2 with an ERA of 18.00! It’s hard to expect much better out of Quintana today, as the Red Sox lead all of baseball in runs scored. This one could get ugly. Give me the Bo Sox as they finish off the 3-game sweep of the Angels.
New York Mets (-114) at Tampa Bay Rays
The New York Mets were steaming hot before heading to Tampa Bay for this series with the Rays. New York had won 7 straight games before dropping each of the first 2 games of this set. I like New York to get back on track today behind stud starting pitcher Marcus Stroman. Stroman has been mostly great all season long, but he has been really good on the road. Stroman has an ERA of just 1.50 in 4 road starts, and the Mets need him to be a stopper today before this bad weekend turns into a bad week.
Sunday in Tampa. #LGM
— New York Mets (@Mets) May 16, 2021
The Rays will answer Stroman with Josh Fleming, who has served as a hybrid opener/starter for the Rays. Fleming isn’t a typical opener, as he does stay in the game longer than just an inning or two, but Tampa Bay doesn’t look for more than 60-70 pitches from the rookie hurler. The Mets were an emerging good story with a 9-2 record in May before dropping back-to-back games to Tampa Bay, and it feels like they are too good of a team to get swept in this series. Give me the Mets in a tightly contested and low-scoring affair.
Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- San Francisco Giants -167
- Boston Red Sox -155
- New York Mets -114
$100 Bet Wins $394
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end, up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
Matthew Boyd has finally figured out that if you don’t try and strike every single hitter out, that you can still have a lot of success on the mound. Boyd was always an elite strikeout artist, but he was prone to giving up the long ball, and his career ERA was sitting right at 5 runs. Legendary pitcher Sandy Koufax once famously said, “I became a good pitcher when I stopped trying to make them miss the ball and started trying to make them hit it.” And it’s looking like Boyd has taken that advice this year, as Boyd has the lowest K rate of his career and by far the lowest ERA of his career, at a stellar 1.94. Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks hasn’t been overly sharp this season for Chicago, but against this Tiger’s team with the fewest runs scored in the American League, he might follow Boyd’s lead and look like Koufax today. Here we have a combination of good pitching and bat hitting that should keep this game well under the total.
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox Over 9.5 Runs (-110)
We already talked about how I feel about Angels starter Jose Quintana, as I expect the washed-up veteran to get blasted to today at Fenway Park. Quintana is well past his prime at this point, and the Red Sox are going to rough him up. The real question is, will the Angels be able to score any runs to help push this game to the over? LA has scored just 3 runs in this series compared to the Red Sox 13, and we need the Halos to snap out of that funk today against Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi has an ERA approaching 5 runs at home, and this is as good of a time as any for the Angels to get back to hitting the baseball. This one goes over, and if LA leaves Quintana in the game long enough, it could end up going WAY over.
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers Under 7 Runs (-110)
While it is always fun to watch a high scoring game where the teams take turns clubbing the ball out of the ballpark, personally, I love a great pitcher’s duel just as much. While the starters in this game, Huascar Ynoa and Freddy Peralta, aren’t household names just yet, make no mistake, these guys are nasty on the mound. Ynoa has a 0.69 ERA in the month of May, and in his last 4 starts, he has worked a total of 24.1 innings and has given up just 3 earned runs with 24 Ks. Peralta has been just as good, as his K/9 ratio of 14.1 is 2nd in the majors, trailing only reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber. 7 runs is an awfully low total, but this game feels like a 2-1 type of game, so I will jump on the under.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers Under 8.5 Runs -110
- Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox Over 9.5 Runs -110
- Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers Under 7 Runs -110
$100 Bet Wins $600
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (+140)
I very rarely take a bad team against a good team based solely on the starting pitching matchup. But very rarely is there a starter that is pitching as well as John Means is right now. Means has been lights out all season long for Baltimore, and in May, he has been stupid good. In May, Means has pitched 15 innings and has yet to allow a run on only 6 hits while striking out 15. One of those starts was a no-hitter against the Seattle Mariners, and he avoided the letdown game in his last start, tossing 6 shutout innings against the New York Mets. Means is just too good not to want to back as a huge home dog, so that is just what I will do.
Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers (+123)
We touched on this game above, and Matthew Boyd is in a similar position as John Means right now, as he is pitching out of his mind. And while it would be hard to argue that the Cubs aren’t a much better team than the Tigers this season, in the last week, Chicago has lost 4 of their last 5 games, while the Tigers have won 5 of their last 6. The baseball season is a long and winding road filled with ups and downs, and by the end of the year, the cream always rises to the top, but we can find lots of spots like this one, where at this exact moment, you can argue that the Tigers are playing better baseball than the Cubs. The Cubs are 2-5 when Kyle Hendricks starts games, and I like the Tigers to stay hot and pick up the win behind a strong outing from Matthew Boyd.
Oakland Athletics (+102) at Minnesota Twins
Yesterday was a day that was filled with upset winners. And as great as a day as it was betting on dogs, we got robbed of winning another one by the Minnesota Twins. The Twins are awful right now, and they shouldn’t have been favored yesterday, and they shouldn’t be favored today. Yesterday’s late-game heartbreak came when the A’s couldn’t hold onto a 4-1 lead in the bottom of the 8th inning. That game felt fluky, and I don’t think the Twins are going to do it again today, and I will take the far superior team and bet on the A’s. Chris Bassitt has been solid for Oakland, and Kenta Maeda just hasn’t been able to get things going yet this season, with an ERA north of 5 runs. Look for the A’s to make up for last night’s collapse and pick up the series win today in the rubber match of the 3-game set.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Baltimore Orioles +140
- Detroit Tigers +123
- Oakland Athletics +102
$100 Bet Wins $981
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (-167)
The Kansas City Royals had to win a game eventually, right? It was hard to see that win coming against Carlos Rodon and the Chicago White Sox, but after losing 12 of their last 13 games, the Royals managed to touch up Rodon and pick up a rare win. But don’t get too excited, Royal’s fans, as I see Kansas City heading right back to the doghouse today against White Sox starter Dylan Cease. Chicago has won each of Cease’s last 4 starts, and yesterday’s fluky performance against Carlos Rodon is going to be a distant memory after KC gets right back to their losing ways on the road.
Atlanta Braves (+106) at Milwaukee Brewers
I love me some Freddy Peralta, but I can’t resist the urge to back Huascar Ynoa as an underdog, especially against a Brewers team that has lost 10 of their last 13 games. Atlanta has dominated this series thus far and will be looking for the sweep today, and I think that they take care of business and win this game. Atlanta has won 4 straight games where Ynoa gets the start, and their run differential in those games is an impressive +21. This will be a tight game, and we are going to likely have to sweat it out, but the Braves are the side to be on as underdogs.
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies (+100)
The Rockies took the first 2 games of this series before losing in extra innings last night, and I have bet them in each game of this series and have made some nice cash. Before this series started, I highlighted the fact that while the Rockies are terrible on the road, they are actually pretty good at home, with a 13-11 record at Coors Field. Red’s starter Jeff Hoffman has been getting hammered on the road all season long, with an 0-2 record and 6.57 ERA, and for a guy that tends to get most of his outs with fly balls, he might be in for a long afternoon. Coors Field is known for lazy fly balls that end up in the stands, and I see the Rockies getting to Jeff Hoffman early and often and finishing off the series win today at home. Home dogs have been red hot all week, and I will take yet another one here.
Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers (-148)
What a strange season it has been for the Los Angeles Dodgers. They came into the year looking like baseball’s best team, and after jumping out to one of the best starts of all time, they looked unbeatable. Then the wheels fell off, and they fell into a nasty multi-week slump. But the Boys in Blue appear to be pulling out of that slump recently with wins in 5 of their last 6 games, and if LA indeed does have things figured out, they should be far bigger favorites in this game, with ace pitcher Walker Buehler getting the start. Marlin’s starter Pablo Lopez has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 6 of his 8 starts this year, but his solid pitching hasn’t really translated into wins for Miami, as he has an 0-3 record, and the Marlins are 3-5 in his 8 starts. If the Dodgers are back to normal, this line should be -200. I will get ahead of that curve and take LA, as it feels like they are about to go on a run.
St. Louis Cardinals (+114) at San Diego Padres
Kwang Hyun Kim has been a secret weapon for me in the last 2 seasons. The former KBO superstar made his Big League debut as a 31-year-old rookie last year and was fantastic with a 7-3 record and elite 1.62 ERA. Kim got a late start to this season, but since returning to the club, he picked up right where he left off last year, as he is 1-0 with a 2.74 ERA, and the Cardinals are 5-0 in his 5 starts. Kim was noticeably rusty in his 1st start of the year, but he has allowed exactly 1 earned run total in each of his last 4 starts, and he is far too good to not want to back as an underdog. And it’s not like this is one of those spots where I am taking a great starter for a bad team, hoping that he can carry his team to an upset victory, as the Cardinals are currently in a 3-wat tie for the most wins in the National League.
Sunday Night Baseball is a matchup of elite third basemen.
Who are you going with? pic.twitter.com/0H9llIa6tt
— MLB (@MLB) May 16, 2021
Padres starter Ryan Weathers has been nearly impossible to hit this year and has spent his season bouncing around between the bullpen and the rotation for the Padres. Weathers is used as a quasi-opener for San Diego, as he generally only goes through the lineup 1 time, whether he is starting or coming out of the pen. He has only pitched more than 4 innings in a game once all season long, and I doubt he will be in this game all that long. He should be good when he is in the game, but don’t expect to see him factor into this decision. If all you have done this season is bet on St. Louis when Kwang Hyun Kim pitches, you are crushing souls, and I will follow that strong trend today and take the Cardinals to win as road dogs in sunny San Diego.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Chicago White Sox -167
- Atlanta Braves +106
- Colorado Rockies +100
- Los Angeles Dodgers -148
- St. Louis Cardinals +114
$100 Bet Wins $2,263
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!