Yesterday wasn’t our best day of the year betting on Major League Baseball, as we ran bad in a couple of key spots that held us back from having a big day. It wasn’t all disappointment by any means, as we picked up winners on the White Sox and Giants as favorites and Athletics (+102) and Orioles (+140) as underdogs. But had a couple of games that were looking good early, before falling apart late, gone in the other direction, we could have had a big day.
Comebacks are for the Birds. pic.twitter.com/pfQfeD79iA
— Baltimore Orioles 😷 (@Orioles) May 16, 2021
The most painful beat of the day came to us from Coors Field, as the Rockies led 6-1, heading into the 8th inning as home underdogs. The Rockies bullpen collapsed late in the game, getting smashed for 6 runs in the 8th and 9th innings and giving the game away. We also saw the Cardinals, Red Sox, and Dodgers blow multi-run leads in what turned out to be a frustrating day. What can you do, we were tracking to have a big day and couldn’t hold onto winners late, and it cost us. Today, we will look to shake off the run bad and get right back at it, delivering max value, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
Chicago White Sox (-110) at Minnesota Twins
These 2 teams matched up in Chicago last week, and the White Sox embarrassed the Twins on their own field, sweeping the Twinkies in a 3-game set, and winning each game by multiple runs. Things didn’t get much better for Minnesota in their last series, as they dropped 2 of 3 to the Oakland A’s, and really, they should have gotten swept, as they trailed 4-1 in the 8th inning of the 1 game that they dd manage to salvage. Minnesota’s nightmare of a season has continued, as they have the worst record in the Major Leagues, and things aren’t going to get any easier in the next few days, as they play this series with the White Sox and have another series coming against the Cleveland Indians, both teams that project as playoff-caliber squads.
Another week, another new No. 1 team 👀
Full Power Rankings: https://t.co/tRr05CtqvD
— MLB (@MLB) May 17, 2021
The Twins are hoping that veteran JA Happ can help them get things turned around, but when you look at how he pitched in his last start against these very same Chicago White Sox, Twin’s fans must be cringing. Happ got hammered for 9 runs, all earned, on a whopping 9 hits and 2 walks in just 3.1 innings. Chicago will answer Happ, with Dallas Keuchel, who started opposite Happ last week and also got roughed up in the game. This starting pitching matchup is basically a wash. Both of these guys were pitching well before their last outings, and I expect both of them to be much better today in the rematch.
But what isn’t a wash, is the overall strength of these teams. The White Sox currently lead the AL in winning percentage, and despite several key injuries, they are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now, having won 8 of their last 10 games. This line is laughably bad, as the books are refusing to price the Twins like the last place team that they are right now. I will take advantage of the bad number and jump all over the red-hot White Sox, as they should take care of business this week in the Twin Cities.
Washington Nationals (+133) at Chicago Cubs
Jon Lester returns to Chicago today for the 1st time since leaving the Cubs after a 6-year stint that saw him help lead the Cubs to their 1st World Series title in ages. Lester is nearly certain to be applauded by the Chicago fans in what should be a homecoming of sorts for the veteran starter. Lester really struggled in his last couple of seasons on the North Side, but he has seemingly found the fountain of youth in Washington, as he has pitched well for the Nationals this year. Lester got a late start to his season, but in 3 starts for the Nats, he has posted a more than respectable 2.25 ERA. Lester has already admitted that his return to Chicago is going to be an emotional one, and I expect him to rise to the occasion and have a lot of success today.
Aloha, Mr. Hand.
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) May 16, 2021
The Cubs will start Adbert Alzolay, and he will almost certainly be the least popular starter on the mound today, up against a franchise legend like Jon Lester. Alzolay hasn’t been awful this year for Chicago, but he doesn’t get very deep into games, and he rarely does anything special to help his team win a game. Chicago has lost 5 of his 6 starts, and I have this sneaking suspicion that Chicago is going to lay an egg today, and I am not sure that Cubs fans are even going to be mad about it as Lester is well-deserving of recognition for his time served as the Cubs ace. Washington has won 3 of their last 4 games, and they are coming off of a series win over the Arizona Diamondbacks that went a long way into stopping the bleeding of what has been a rough start to the season for the Nationals. I’ll back the Nats as underdogs, powered by an emotionally charged outing from Jon Leser.
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners (-180)
Seattle Mariner’s GM Jerry Dipoto was hoping that adding super prospect Jarred Kelenic would give this Mariner’s team the spark that they needed to stay in the postseason conversation in the American League. And after seeing the M’s take the last 3 games of their 4-game series with the Cleveland Indians, including handing reigning Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber a rare loss yesterday, it looks like Kelenic has done just that. The Mariners are back on the right side of .500 at 21-20 and are looking to stay hot on this homestand as they welcome the Detroit Tigers to town. Seattle will start Yusei Kikuchi, with Kikuchi finally starting to find his way as a Big League pitcher after a turbulent rookie season last year. Kikuchi has worked at least 6 innings in all but 1 of his starts this season and has posted respectable results considering that he has pitched against hard-hitting teams like the Astros (twice), Dodgers, and Twins.
Full steam ahead. pic.twitter.com/q9sBa9bTuT
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) May 14, 2021
Casey Mize gets the nod for Detroit, and while the former number 1 overall draft pick is undeniably talented, his results have been inconsistent. Mize has pitched well here in the month of May, with a 2.25 ERA in 2 starts, but something tells me that the Mariners have stumbled onto something special with the additions of Kelenic and fellow super prospect, starting pitcher Logan Gilbert. The Tigers are the worst road team in the American League with a dismal 5-14 record away from home, and I think they just might run into a buzzsaw today in Seattle against a Mariners team that has a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the future.
Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Chicago White Sox -110
- Washington Nationals +133
- Seattle Mariners -180
$100 Bet Wins $592
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end, up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners Over 7.5 Runs (-110)
We just talked about how I see the Mariners handling the Tigers today at home, and I am surprised to see this game total so low. Generally, we see totals of 7.5 runs reserved for matchups between ace starting pitchers. I think both Yusei Kikuchi and Casey Mize both have bright futures, but to say these guys are both aces at this point in their careers would be way premature. Neither of these teams hit the ball very well, but Seattle has looked much better with the addition of Kelenic in the leadoff spot, and they are going to score some runs off of Casey Mize. And even if they don’t get to Mize, they are going to find ways to score runs against this Tiger’s bullpen that is dead last in the majors in bullpen ERA. I am taking advantage of a bad number and taking the over in this one.
Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels Over 9 Runs (-110)
I rarely take the over in games featuring the Cleveland Indians, as Cleveland has weak hitting and great pitching, which leads to a lot of low scoring games. But on the flip side, I love taking the over in Los Angeles Angels games, as their pitching is awful, and their lineup is packed full of heavy hitters. So, where do I see this game landing with strong trends moving in opposite directions? They say great pitching beats great hitting every time, but in this spot, the Indians won’t be starting Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, or Zack Plesac; instead, they are going with rookie Sam Hentges. Hentges made his Major League debut earlier this season, and this will be just his 2nd ever start in the show. He had never pitched above triple-A before this year, and in his last work before this season, he went 2-13 with a 5.11 ERA in double-A. And even if Hentges is somehow decent, we can always rely on the fact that the Angels stink on the mound, and their starter Patrick Sandoval has an ERA north of 6 runs. Another day, another play on the over in the Angels game.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins Under 9.5 Runs (-110)
We saw this identical matchup last week when the Twins hosted the White Sox, with Dallas Keuchel squaring off with JA Happ. That game turned into a slugfest, where 21 runs eventually hit the board. But, as I mentioned above, that was a bit of a fluky game for both Happ and Keuchel, and I think that this line is overpriced based on what happened last week. You don’t ever want to overreact to a small sample size of data, and this total feels at least a full run too high, based on what happened last week. I will fade the public and expect both starters to be better, and for this game to be much lower scoring than last week’s affair.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners Over 7.5 Runs -110
- Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels Over 9 Runs -110
- Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins Under 9.5 Runs -110
$100 Bet Wins $600
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
New York Mets (+128) at Atlanta Braves
The New York Mets were steaming hot this month until they went down to Tampa Bay and got beaten up by the Tampa Bay Rays this weekend. Tampa swept the Mets in a 3-game series, snapping what was a 7-game winning streak for New York. The Mets will look to get back to their winning ways today as they continue their road trip in Atlanta for game 1 of a 3-game set with the Braves. The Mets show significant value today with starter Taijuan Walker pitching as well as we have ever seen him. Walker has been great all season long, but in his last couple of outings, he has stepped up his game even further, as he has pitched 14 combined innings and has allowed only a single earned run. The Mets have won 6 of the 7 games where Walker has started, and even though he doesn’t have the reputation of a guy like Max Fried does for the Braves, you can argue that he is the best starting pitcher that is going to pitch in Atlanta today.
Day 1 of play in the A. #LGM
— New York Mets (@Mets) May 17, 2021
Fried was terrible in April, with a double-digit ERA in 3 starts, but he has been much better here in May, with a 1.64 ERA in 2 starts. Fried is a lot better than he looked in April, but I don’t know how you can argue that this game is anything more than a coin flip. The Mets are currently sitting in 1st place in the NL East Division, and every time the Braves take a step forward, they quickly take a step back. This is one of those higher variance plays that could end up going either way, and you always want to be on the side getting juice in a game like that. I’ll take the Mets and hope the variance swings our direction.
Cleveland Indians (+120) at Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels stink. They have a bad pitching staff, and they seem to find a way to lose games that they shouldn’t, on a regular basis. Even with their poor record, with the fewest wins of any team in the AL West Division, the Angels are still being priced aggressively nearly every day. I guess the books expect that eventually, this pitching staff won’t be awful, and that they will string together some wins at some point? They picked up a miracle win last night, coming from behind in the 9th inning to snap a 4-game losing streak, but they are still just 5-10 this month, and they shouldn’t be favored in this game against the Cleveland Indians. Sam Hentges is a wild card, but this bet is a straight fade of the Angels and their bad pitching staff.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- New York Mets +128
- Cleveland Indians +120
$100 Bet Wins $402
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds (-139)
The San Franciso Giants have been really good this year, but when you take a little closer look at their National League best 24-16 record, nearly all of that success has come at home in the Bay Area. The Giants are actually a losing team on the road, which makes them a prime candidate to fade today in Cincinnati, against a solid Reds team, with their ace starter on the mound in Sonny Gray. The Reds have been much better at home than on the road, and Gray has been remarkable at home, with a 1.59 ERA.
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) May 17, 2021
The splits continue to be telling when you notice that Giant’s starter Logan Webb is 0-3 with a 7.58 ERA on the road, compared to 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA at Oracle Park in San Francisco. I love when you can dig a couple of layers deeper into the data and find some great nuggets like these ones. We have one team that is great home with a starter that is unhittable at home in the Reds, with Gray getting the start, against a Giants team that is amazing at home, but bad on the road, with a starter that gets shelled when he isn’t pitching on his home field. There are too many strong trends all moving in one direction for me to ignore, and I will follow the data and expect the Reds to win today at Great American Ballpark.
San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds Under 8 Runs (-110)
For my next pick, I won’t go far, as I will continue with my breakdown of that Reds/Giants game and jump on the under 8 runs. If Sonny Gray can continue his dominance at home, this game will stay well under, as it is hard to run up a high game total if one of the teams can’t score. Logan Webb does scare me a little bit, as this Red’s team swings a heavy bat, but at the end of the day, I see the Reds jumping out to an early lead and being content to sit on it and coast to a 5-2 type of victory.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+185) at Los Angeles Dodgers
Will the real Madison Bumgarner please stand up! It has been a tale of two seasons for MaddyBums this year, as he started out the year getting shelled, but has been pitching at an All-Star level ever since. In his last 5 starts, Bumgarner is 4-0 with a combined 30 innings pitched, allowing just 3 earned runs, on only 12 hits. Bumgarner has the makings of a Hall of Fame career in his long stint with the San Franciso Giants, and if he is healthy and back to pitching at the level that he did with the G-men, this is a really bad line.
It felt like the Dodgers were ready to pull out of their month’s long slump, but they looked flat again last night and lost at home to the Miami Marlins. I can’t resist being able to back a guy like Madison Bumgarner, that is pitching so well right now, at a jumbo price like this. No team in the major has more losses as a favorite than the Dodgers do right now, so I will swing for the fences and pick a major upset today in the City of Angels.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres -1.5 Runs (+116)
When the St. Louis Cardinals traveled to San Diego for a weekend series with the Friars, it felt like a series that could shape the course of the National League standings, as the winner of the series was going to have the best record in the league. It looked like we were going to lose out on a competitive series, as the Padres lost the heart of their lineup to COVID-19 protocol when Fernando Tatis Jr went down with the Rona. And I guess we were right when we expected the series to not be overly competitive, but it didn’t go in the direction we all thought it would, as the Padres spanked the Cardinals, to the tune of a 3-game sweep and a +13-run differential.
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) May 17, 2021
The Padres now welcome the Colorado Rockies to town, and the Rockies have to be running on fumes, as they lost back-to-back games to the Cincinnati Reds in their last series, with both games being decided by heartbreaking late-game comebacks by the Reds. Colorado is 2-14 on the road this season, by far the worst record in the majors, and after seeing what happened to them at home in the last couple of days, nobody is going to blame them if they give one away today in San Diego. This game has blowout written all over it, and I expect the Padres to hammer the Rockies today at PETCO Park. You can count on one hand how many times I have taken home teams on the run line this year, but this game is a perfect example of why you need to be open minded when making your plays. I’ll call this game at 8-1 San Diego and snatch up some juicy dog money on the run line and back the Friars.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Cincinnati Reds -139
- San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds Under 8 Runs -110
- Arizona Diamondbacks +185
- San Diego Padres -1.5 Runs +116
$100 Bet Wins $1,921
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!