It is a bit of a short schedule today, as there are only 10 games on the slate, but with it being getaway day for several series, we have some early day baseball action, as well as some late west coast games, that should keep you entertained all day long! Highlights include the Astros playing in the Bronx against the New York Yankees, the Brewers and Phillies squaring off in a matchup between ace starters with Zack Wheeler and Brandon Woodruff going, and the Blue Jays and A’s playing in Oakland.
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) May 6, 2021
In other action, we have the Boston Red Sox looking to stay hot against the struggling Detroit Tigers, the Cards hosting the Mets, and the late game comes to us from the City of Angels, as the Los Angeles Angels host the Tampa Bay Rays trying to avoid the sweep. As always, we are right here to bring you all of the sharp betting advice you crave, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals (-130)
I think we all expected to see both of these teams change course after unexpected starts to their seasons. The Indians were struggling for much of the month of April but have now won 4 straight games, and with the recent spurt, they have pulled into a 3-way tie with the White Sox and Royals for 1st place in the AL Central Division. For KC, they overachieved all month long, but they are coming back to Earth, having lost 6 of their last 8, and they are riding a 4-game losing streak entering play today at home.
Cleveland was never as bad as they looked early in the year, and the Royals were never as good as they looked, and it’s not surprising that the Indians are on the cusp of the sweep today in game 4. But when I look at the starting pitching matchup in this game, I like the home team. Danny Duffy is pitching as well as we have ever seen him, as he is 4-1 with a 0.60 ERA and is looking like a Cy Young Award candidate. In his lone start against the tribe this season, he dazzled with 6 shutout innings, allowing just 2 hits and picking up the win for his efforts. Duffy’s only loss this season came in a hard-luck spot, as he worked 6 innings and didn’t even allow a single earned run, but was charged with the loss when a couple of unearned runs did him in against the Tampa Bay Rays.
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) May 6, 2021
On the other side of the mound, you have Cleveland youngster Triston McKenzie. McKenzie came into this year with a lot of hype surrounding him, and while he was solid in his first couple of starts, the wheels have fallen off recently, as he has gotten hammered in his last 2 outings. In those starts, he has managed to work just 6 combined innings, getting rocked for 8 earned runs. Walks have been his Achilles heel, as he has walked at least 4 batters in all but 1 of his starts this season. I see the Royals salvaging a win in this series, as the Indians are going to be happy to get out of town with the 3-1 series win. Triston McKenzie can’t be trusted, and you have to love all of the value you pick up backing Danny Duffy right now, as the guy has been nearly unhittable.
Toronto Blue Jays (-134) at Oakland Athletics
The poor Toronto Blue Jays. They have no place to call home, as the city of Toronto has yet to allow them to play on their home field due to COVID-19 restrictions, and various injuries have really limited their upside. They got Teoscar Hernandez back last week, and he has been great, but after welcoming George Springer back to the team after the newly acquired free agent missed the entire month of April, Springer immediately re-injured his quad and was placed back on the IL. Toronto gets their ace, Hyun Jin Ryu, back from an injury today, and they are hoping that he can pick up where he left off, as he had a 2.60 ERA for the Blue Jays in 5 starts before hitting the IL.
Goodnight, #BlueJays fans 💙
Let’s do it again tomorrow! pic.twitter.com/4T1rzTEqsJ
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) May 6, 2021
Oakland will attempt to match Ryu with veteran Mike Fiers. Fiers missed the start of the season for the A’s and looked decent in his 1st start of the year, as he worked 6 innings and allowed 3 earned runs in a loss to the Baltimore Orioles. Fiers got taken deep a couple of times by Baltimore, and that doesn’t bode well for him today, as these Blue Jays are starting to heat up at the plate. That is especially true for superstar Vlad Guerrero Jr, who has 10 hits, 10 RBI, and 9 runs scored in his last 8 games. I like Toronto to pick up the win today on the road behind a solid outing from Hyun Jin Ryu and nice production from the middle of their lineup.
Tampa Bay Rays (+110) at Los Angeles Angels
I am shocked to see the Los Angeles Angels favored in this game. LA has one of the worst pitching staffs in the American League. Currently, only the Detroit Tigers staff has a higher team ERA than the Angels, and they are playing awful right now, with a 2-6 record in their last 8 games. Yeah, the lineup is doing its thing and scoring a bunch of runs, but that doesn’t change the fact that their pitching staff can’t get anybody out. This putrid Angels staff has made the Ray’s weak offense look like the ’27 Yankees as the Rays have pounded out 18 runs already in this series. It’s hard to expect much different from the Halos tonight with Andrew Heaney getting the nod.
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) May 6, 2021
Heaney is 1-2 with a 5.25 ERA on the year and got smashed in his last outing by the Seattle Mariners, giving up 3 home runs in 3.1 innings. At home this season, Heaney has an ERA of nearly 10 runs! I mean, I get it, Collin McHugh hasn’t been very good for the Rays this year, but he isn’t going to be in the game very long, as he is going to be used as an opener and will get pulled at the first signs of trouble. Tampa Bay has dominated this series so far, and I love being able to get them at dog money in the series finale.
Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Kansas City Royals -130
- Toronto Blue Jays -134
- Tampa Bay Rays +110
$100 Bet Wins $549
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end, up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels Over 8 Runs (-110)
Speaking of that series finale in Hollywood, I will also jump on the over in what could end up being a very high scoring game. We already talked about how bad Andrew Heaney has been this year, particularly at home, and he could end up being bad enough to send this game over all by himself. And when you look at Collin McHugh’s struggles, he is sure to give up at least a run or two as well. I take the over in Angels games a lot, as they have great bats and awful pitching, and that is the play I will make today as all 3 games of this series have hit the over, and I see more of the same today in game 4.
Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
This game features an underrated starting pitching matchup between a couple of guys that have long track records of success. There are some red flags for both guys, as Ryu is making his first start since coming off the IL, and Fiers has only made 1 start all season long after missing a month’s worth of action, but if both of these guys are sharp, this game stays well under the total. After a high scoring game yesterday, I see this one being lower scoring and tightly contested. As long as Baby Vlad doesn’t hit 3 homers in this game like he did last week, I’m not sure we are even going to sweat this one out all that much. I am taking the under on what is an inflated line.
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals Over 7.5 Runs (-110)
This final totals play is a straight fade of Indians starter Triston McKenzie. While this kid has electric stuff, he can’t find the strike zone, and it is causing him to really struggle. McKenzie has yet to get past the 5th inning in any starts this year, and he has gone fewer than 5 innings in all but 1 start for Cleveland. Batters have a hard time squaring him up, and his K numbers are impressive, but that’s only because nobody has any clue where the ball is going to go, not even McKenzie! On the road, McKenzie has an ERA north of 7 runs, and while Danny Duffy might not give up many runs, this total is far too low for a game with a rookie like McKenzie getting the start.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels Over 8 Runs -110
- Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics Under 8.5 Runs -110
- Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals Over 7.5 Runs -110
$100 Bet Wins $600
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals (+100)
It looked like the Washington Nationals were starting to turn things around before this series with the Atlanta Braves, as they had a 7-3 record in their previous 10 games. But the Braves have taken the first 2 games of this series to slow down that Washington momentum, and Atlanta is looking for the sweep today in game 3. The Braves will go with Drew Smyly on the mound today, and unless he is a lot better than he has been this year for Atlanta, Braves fans can kiss all that sweep talk away. Smyly has made 4 starts for Atlanta, working just 19 total innings and getting slammed for 21 runs, 17 of them earned. The Braves are 0-4 in those 4 starts, with a run differential of -17.
OK, so here's the 4⃣1⃣1⃣…
Today marks Davey Martinez's 411th career game as manager of the Washington Nationals.
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) May 6, 2021
Jon Lester will go for Washington, trying to stop the bleeding and salvage a win today. Lester made his season debut last week against the Miami Marlins and looked pretty good for a 37-year-old with limited tread left on his tires. Lester worked 5 shutout innings against the Marlins on only 70 pitches, and in his long career, he has always been a guy that can pick his team up when they need it and deliver a win. That is what I see happening today in this one. You can expect the Nats to leave Lester in the game a little bit longer, and he is the far superior side of this starting pitching matchup with Drew Smyly, who can’t stop getting lit up. Home dogs are always a favorite play of mine, and I will back Washington in this one.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+118) at Miami Marlins
Our final bet of the day comes to us from Miami, as the Marlins host the Arizona Diamondbacks. Baseball is a team game, but this game comes down to the production of just 1 player, Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner has been mostly terrible since leaving the San Francisco Giants for Arizona, and in his first 3 starts of the year, he got hammered for a whopping 17 earned runs. But then something must have clicked for Maddy Bums, as he has been fantastic in his last 3 outings. In those 3 starts, Bumgarner is 3-0 and has given up only 2 runs on just 6 hits in 17 innings. That includes a 7-inning no-hitter against the hard-hitting Atlanta Braves.
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) May 6, 2021
While the production of Madison Bumgarner is going to make a major difference in this game, I am not sure you can say the same thing about Marlins starter Pablo Lopez. Lopez has been great all year long for Miami, and it doesn’t seem to really matter, as they lose just about every time he pitches. Lopez has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 5 of his 6 starts this season, and the Marlins are 1-4 in those starts, despite the stellar work from Lopez. At home, his ERA is a blink, and you will miss it, 1.02, but his record is 0-2. I’ll stick with the trends tonight, and take the DBacks as dogs, and hope that Bumgarner stays hot and that the Marlins continue to fail to support Pablo Lopez.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Washington Nationals +100
- Arizona Diamondbacks +118
$100 Bet Wins $336
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have three different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!