Hello, baseball fans! Major League Baseball came out of the All-Star break a little bit slow, but they have things ramped up today, with a full 15 games on the schedule. After taking a little break ourselves, we will get right back at it today, and after a very successful first half of the season, we are looking to double down on that success here in the second half of the year.
End an exciting night of baseball with dingers. pic.twitter.com/cr0OqMShSy
— MLB (@MLB) July 20, 2021
Highlights on the schedule today from the National League include the Braves hosting the Padres, the Mets playing in Cincinnati against the upstart Reds, the Cardinals and Cubs squaring off in St. Louis with both teams desperately needing a series win, and the nightcap comes to us from the West Coast, as the Giants are in LA to play the Dodgers with the best record in the majors on the line. Over in the American League, the White Sox host the Twins, the Indians play in Houston against the Astros, and the Red Sox and Blue Jays battle in an AL East Division rivalry game. As always, we will be right there with you today, delivering max value, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
Kansas City Royals at Milwaukee Brewers (-170)
The Kansas City Royals did an admirable job of contending through the first couple of months of the season. But those glory days are long gone now, as KC is in free fall, and they could very well end up with the worst record in the American League before all is said and done this season. The Royals had lost 15 of 18 prior to the All-Star break and promptly dropped 2 of 3 to the hapless Baltimore Orioles, at home no less, in their first series post break. Kansas City hasn’t been great anywhere, but on the road, they have been particularly bad, as only the Texas Rangers have fewer road wins in the AL this season than the Royals. It’s hard to expect things to get much better for KC today with Mike Minor on the mound, as he was getting hammered before the break, allowing a whopping 24 runs in his previous 4 starts combined, all Royals losses.
Kicking off the Milwaukee sports doubleheader!
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) July 20, 2021
The Royals are an auto-fade play right now on the road, so I would likely be on the other side of them no matter where they were playing today. That being said, the Brewers have managed to stay under the radar despite having the third-most wins in the National League. Milwaukee is running away with the Central Division title, with a 7.5 game lead over second place Cincinnati, and I like them to take care of business tonight at home with Brett Anderson getting the nod for the Brew Crew. Anderson has had his fair share of ups and downs this season, but he has actually been great at home, with a 2.86 ERA at Miller Park. This is one of those low hanging fruit spots where you lay a little wood and pick up an easy winner. It isn’t overly sexy, but free cash is free cash. Give me the Brewers.
Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (-125)
A couple of years from now, we may look back on this matchup between Tarik Skubal and Dane Dunning and remember it as a matchup of elite pitchers that were just hitting their prime. Both of these guys have nasty stuff, and while neither has done enough to really stand out yet in their careers, I see both of them as future top half of the rotation type of guys. Dunning knows how to win at home, but on the road, he is having all kinds of trouble, as he is 0-4 with a 6.55 ERA. No team in the AL is worse than Texas is away from home, and if it weren’t for the Rockies and DBacks being all-time bad on the road this season, it would be the Rangers that are the butt of every joke right now for their inability to win in other team’s ballparks.
STILL undefeated in the second half of the season. pic.twitter.com/pvvFcjV7a2
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) July 20, 2021
With the exception of a couple of tough outings against the hard-hitting Chicago White Sox, Tarik Skubal has been excellent at home. The Tigers have won 6 of his last 8 starts, which is awfully impressive when you take into account how hard wins are to come by for the Tigers. I am a bit surprised at this price. On the one hand, you have the worst road team in the AL, with a starter that has yet to pick up a winning decision away from home. On the other hand, you have a Tigers team, that while they aren’t going to be in the playoff conversation this season, is more than respectable at home. Detroit has more home wins than the Indians and Blue Jays and a better home record than the New York Yankees. They aren’t world beaters by any means, but they are better than Texas, and I like them today at home at this very reasonable price.
New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds (-145)
This is a sneaky good matchup today in Cincinnati, as the Reds host the Mets. New York is dominating in the NL East Division, but nearly all of their success has come at home, and on the road, they are actually pretty awful, with a 21-28 record. The Mets will start Robert Stock today, hoping that he can help fill a gap in their rotation after trading for him earlier this month. Stock has made just 2 appearances this season, and he is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA. Stock is a career reliever, and I am quite surprised that he is being called on to start big games for this Mets team that has their sites set on a division title.
Running out of ways to describe how clutch this man is… pic.twitter.com/RTo00xfPGN
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 20, 2021
The Reds will answer Robert Stock with their ace, Wade Miley. I know it might feel weird to call Miley an ace, but that is what he has become this season for the Reds, with an impressive 7-4 record and 2.80 ERA. Cincy has won 7 out of his last 8 starts, and they haven’t lost at home with Miley on the mound since mid-May. The mainstream media has been covering the Mets a lot this season, and deservedly so, as they have done a great job of winning in their division. But the Reds are just 2.5 games behind New York in the National League standings, and they are mostly being ignored. I will back the Reds tonight at home as a fade of the Mets on the road, as well as a show of confidence in Wade Miley and the upstart Reds, who are likely a lot better than you might think.
Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Milwaukee Brewers -170
- Detroit Tigers -125
- Cincinnati Reds -145
$100 Bet Pays $484
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies Under 11 Runs (-110)
An under at Coors Field? Am I crazy? Hear me out here before you start to laugh at this play. No team in the game has a lower team batting average than the Seattle Mariners do right now, and even in the thin air of the Rocky Mountains, they are going to have a hard time hitting off of Rockies starter German Marquez. Marquez is pitching for a new job, as he is expected to be one of the bigger name pitchers to be moved at the trade deadline, and if he can continue to be elite at home, where he is 6-1 with a 3.06 ERA, he is going to command a hefty price tags for teams that want to acquire his talents. In his last 6 home starts, he has held teams to just 4 total earned runs. Marco Gonzalez scares me just a bit as he has been bad, but the Rockies aren’t pushing this total over such a high number all on their own, and as long as Marquez keeps doing what he has been, this game stays well under the total.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox Under 9.5 Runs (-110)
Both of these teams are high scoring, so I can understand why this total is so high. That being said, when you see how good Dallas Keuchel has been in Chicago, it feels a bit too high. Keuchel is 4-1 with a sub-4-run ERA in the Windy City, and in his last 4 home starts, he has worked a combined 24 innings and has given up just 5 total runs. Twins starter Baily Ober hasn’t been overly sharp this season, but he did face these White Sox right before the All-Star break, and was fantastic, working 5 shutout innings against Chicago. No team in the game went over their total more often than Minnesota did in the first half of the season, so don’t be surprised when you start seeing these inflated run totals as the books try and overcompensate. I will take advantage of that overreaction and jump on the under in this one.
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals Under 9 Runs (-110)
Poor Trevor Rogers. The Marlins rookie starter has been outstanding this season and could end up taking home the Rookie of the Year Award in the National League with his 2.31 ERA. But his team just doesn’t support him, and despite the fact that he has been pitching his brains out all season long, the losses are starting to pile up for the youngster. Rogers has yet to allow more than 3 earned runs in any start this year, and he has held teams to 2 earned runs or fewer in a game in 16 of his 18 starts. Nationals starter Paolo Espino has been solid as well, particularly at home, where he has a 2.70 ERA in 10 appearances. Only the Pittsburgh Pirates score fewer runs per game this season than Miami, and I see this game being a very low scoring affair.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies Under 11 Runs -110
- Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox Under 9.5 Runs -110
- Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals Under 9 Runs -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
Los Angeles Angels (+130) at Oakland Athletics
If you are a regular reader of my parlay of the day betting picks, you will know that I love fading the Los Angeles Angels. The Halos are almost always being overpriced in the betting markets, and I love to take advantage of that. But today, I will switch gears and back the Angels as road underdogs in a high value spot. The A’s have really slumped in the last month or so, and with the trade deadline looming, it will be interesting to see what Billy Beane ends up doing. Personally, I see the A’s as standing pat or selling off, rather than buying at the deadline, which has to be painful for A’s fans.
Now on deck: afternoon baseball
— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) July 20, 2021
James Kaprelian is having a similar season as Trevor Rogers; in that, he always seems to pitch great and still finds a way to lose most starts. Kaprelian has a solid 2.90 ERA, but the A’s have lost 5 of his last 8 starts. Angels starter Jose Suarez has bounced around between the bullpen and the rotation for LA and has been pitching at a very high level. In his 7 appearances on the road, Suarez has a stellar 1.80 ERA. This is a gut check type of play. The data doesn’t point me strongly in either direction, and this feels like a coin flip game that could go either way. My regular readers know what I do with coin flip games, and that is snatch up the juice and hope the variance breaks my way. That is just what I will do in this one as I smell upset today in Oakland, just a day before the city votes to decide their fate on relocation. Can anyone say Las Vegas Athletics?
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees (+110)
There is only 1 team in the majors that has yet to lose as home underdogs this season. You guessed it, it’s the New York Yankees. New York has only gotten dog money at Yankee Stadium twice, so it’s not all that impressive that they are undefeated, but it does go to show you that this is a nice spot for a value play on a home dog. I hate to fade Aaron Nola, as the guy is capable of shutting teams completely down, but his road ERA is over 5 runs, and the Phillies are a joke away from home. Philly is 8 games below .500 on the road this season, and they shouldn’t be favored on the road against a contending team like the Yankees.
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) July 19, 2021
Domingo German was banished to the bullpen for a couple of weeks as he was getting lit up as a starter, and he makes his return to the rotation today at home. The betting public loves to overreact to the starting pitching matchup in a game, and that is what is happening here. Yeah, Nola can be filthy, but he can also get lit up, and with how poorly his Phillies have played on the road, I will gladly back the Bronx Bombers as home underdogs.
Boston Red Sox (+115) at Toronto Blue Jays
The Boston Red Sox are 17-10 as road underdogs this season. That is the second-best road underdog winning percentage in the game, trailing only the Milwaukee Brewers. When you get the chance to back the Bo Sox as road dogs, you have to take a hard look at it each and every time, as they have delivered in what is the toughest spot in all of sports betting. Garrett Richards isn’t a guy that I have too much confidence in right now, but he has actually been decent on the road with an ERA below 4 runs. And when you see that Toronto is starting Thomas Hatch tonight, Richards is clearly the better side of the starting pitching matchup.
Came out swingin' 💣
— Red Sox (@RedSox) July 20, 2021
Hatch will make his season debut tonight after missing all of the first half with an injury. Hatch is a blue-chip prospect for Toronto, and they badly need him to step up into this rotation and be serviceable if the Blue Jays want any real shot at competing for the postseason in the loaded AL East Division. Hatch has been strong at triple-A Buffalo, but this is a really tough landing spot for his first start of the season, as the Red Sox are the second highest scoring team in the American League. Expect the Red Sox, who obliterated the Blue Jays pitching staff yesterday to the tune of 13 runs, to stay hot tonight against an overmatched Thomas Hatch.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Los Angeles Angels +130
- New York Yankees +110
- Boston Red Sox +115
$100 Bet Pays $1,039
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (-110)
We already talked about how unlucky Trevor Rogers has been this season, so I won’t waste too much of your time explaining why I am going to be on the other side of him tonight in Washington. Miami is embarrassing on the road, and the Nationals are a winning team at home at 26-24. Rogers will pitch great, and just like they always do, the Marlins will fail to support him, and he will take another hard-luck loss. It is always a risky proposition when you are fading a guy that is going to be so good like Rogers likely will be tonight, but Miami is just too bad away from home not to love fading them at even money.
Baltimore Orioles (+175) at Tampa Bay Rays
You want a home run swing? Well, here you go. The Baltimore Orioles welcome their ace back to the mound tonight, as John Means returns after missing more than a full month’s worth of action with a sore shoulder. Means was having a breakout season for Baltimore before coming up lame with a bum shoulder. He tried to pitch through the pain but struggled, and Baltimore decided to shut him down. If Means truly is healthy and pitches anything like he did before hitting the IL, this is a laughably bad line. Means had a 1.37 road ERA before getting hurt, and he can single handedly lead his team to a victory if he is sharp. I am not going to try and pretend that Baltimore is a good team, but they are 3-1 on this road trip, and the guys are going to have to be jacked to have Means back on the bump. You can’t hit home runs if you don’t swing for the fences, right? I will take a healthy cut at this one and back the Orioles as huge underdogs and hope that John Means is back to his early season form.
San Diego Padres (-165) at Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves season is spiraling out of control. Their injured list reads like a who’s who of All-Stars, and it is looking like Atlanta is going to be on the outside looking in, come playoff time. The recent injury to Ronald Acuna Jr, who joins Mike Soroka, Huascar Ynoa, and Ian Anderson on the IL for Atlanta, was the straw that broke the camel’s back, and I would be shocked if Atlanta doesn’t sell off some talent at the trade deadline later this month. With their rotation in shambles, the Braves will turn to rookie Kyle Muller today, and Braves fans must be shaking in their boots thinking about what might happen to him today against this ferocious Padres lineup. The San Diego bats have come out of the All-Star break steaming hot, as they scored an absurd 41 runs in their 3-game series with the Washington Nationals. I would be on the Padres side no matter who was starting for the Friars today, as a fade of the shorthanded Braves, but with All-Star Yu Darvish going for San Diego, this one could get ugly. I’ll lay a little wood and back the Padres.
Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros (-190)
The Houston Astros have done a great job of playing up their role as the villains this season, and they trail the Chicago White Sox by just a half of a game for the best record in the American League. Houston gets a nice matchup today against Indian’s rookie Triston McKenzie, and I see the Astros smashing the young prospect. McKenzie showed in his last start why the Indians are being so patient with him, as he tossed 7 strong innings against the Kansas City Royals, shutting them out and giving up just a single base hit. But prior to that start, he had an ERA of 6.38, and slowing down the Astros is a lot different than slowing down the Royals. Astros starter Luis Garcia has a 2.50 ERA at home, and I like him today at Minute Maid Park.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (-140)
We talked a bit about this game earlier, and it is hard to understand why the White Sox are such small favorites. Chicago has the best home record in the majors, and the Twins are terrible on the road. Home/road splits are always one of my favorite indicators on games, and in this specific matchup, the White Sox are 16 games better at home than the Twins are on the road. That smells like free money if you ask me. I mentioned that Twins starter Bailey Ober had a nice outing against Chicago right before the All-Star break, and while that is true, he also had 2 other starts against the White Sox in the first half of the season, and in those other 2 starts, he got blasted for 9 runs in 7.1 innings pitched. I am taking the home team.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Washington Nationals -110
- Baltimore Orioles +175
- San Diego Padres -165
- Houston Astros -190
- Chicago White Sox -140
$100 Bet Pays $2,207
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!