It was one of those oh-so-close days yesterday. We just missed on a couple of different parlays but still managed to grind out a small profit on straight bet action with a 7-6-1 overall record. We found winners on the Tigers (-125), Reds (-145), Mariners/Rockies under 11 (-110), Yankees (+110), Nationals (-110), Astros (-190), and White Sox (-140). We took a couple of tough beats that slowed us from having a big day, including missing out on the under 9 runs in the Nats/Marlins game that was sitting at just 2 total runs in the 6th inning, as well as seeing the White Sox score 5 runs in the bottom of the 8th inning to spoil our under play in their game with the Cleveland Indians.
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) July 21, 2021
It’s hard to complain too much when you find a way to book a winning day, but with a couple of close calls and bad beats, it felt like yesterday should have been a scoop. What can you do? We will shake off that run bad and get right back to the grind today, delivering max value, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (-110)
We took the Washington Nationals yesterday at even money and cashed our ticket when the Nats took care of business at home, knocking off the Marlins 6-3, and we will again back Washington at even money in game 3 of this 3-game set, as they look for the series sweep. The Marlins are just too bad away from home not to love being able to fade them at even money. Washington has dominated this series so far, to the tune of a +20-run differential, and despite Sandy Alcantara mostly pitching well this season for Miami, wins have been hard to come by for the Fish.
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) July 21, 2021
Alcantara has a respectable 3.57 ERA, but the Marlins have still lost 5 of his last 6 starts. He has allowed 5 runs in 3 of his last 4 outings, and the run support has been anemic, which has led to a lot of losing for Alcantara and the Marlins. Miami has scored 2 runs or fewer in support of Alcantara 10 different times this season, and it sure is tough to win games when you never score any runs. Washington will start Erick Fedde, hoping that he can stop the bleeding as he has gotten hammered for 20 runs in his last 4 starts. As shaky as Fedde has been, Miami is 18-34 on the road, and Washington has a winning record at home, at 27-24. Those splits are too strong to ignore, and I will back the Nats at home as they finish off the sweep today over a Miami squad in freefall.
Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (-125)
This is another repeat bet from yesterday as we were on Detroit, and that one came in, and we will dip into that well again today and again take the Tigers. Just like our first play of the day on Washington, this bet is being powered by strong home/road splits for both teams. Most people expected the Tigers to be bad this season, but in reality, they are kinda sorta decent, and at home, they actually have a winning record at 26-22. The Rangers are the worst road team in the American League, and even against a mediocre at best team like Detroit, they can’t be trusted on the road. Texas will turn to Jordan Lyles tonight and his 2-5 record and 5.50 ERA on the road. Lyles is coming off of one of his worst starts of the year, where he got beaten up by the Toronto Blue Jays for 6 runs in just 4 innings of work, including getting blasted for 4 home runs.
STILL undefeated in the second half of the season. pic.twitter.com/Z9ltgffHHu
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) July 21, 2021
The Tigers will go with super prospect Matt Manning on the mound tonight. Manning was ranked as highly as the 17th best prospect in baseball prior to the season and hasn’t hit his stride in the show as of yet. Manning has been really bad on the road, with an 0-3 record and 8.56 ERA, but at home, he has been decent, with a 1-0 record and 4.32 ERA. Manning is a guy that the Tigers see as a future ace of their staff along with Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize, and I expect him to only get better each time out. This is a soft landing spot for Manning today against this weak-hitting Rangers team, and I think that he will do more than enough to lead his team to victory today.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (-145)
The Chicago White Sox are the best home team in the Major Leagues. The Minnesota Twins are an embarrassment on the road, with an 18-30 record, and they trail the White Sox by a whopping 18 games in the AL Central Division standings. When you look at things that way, it is hard to understand why the White Sox are such small favorites in this game. I get it, Michael Pineda has nasty stuff, and you hate to fade him, but just like the rest of this Twins team, he has struggled on the road, with a 5.40 ERA. In his 2 starts against the South Siders this season, he is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and got hammered for 16 hits while handing out 3 walks in just 10.2 innings pitched.
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) July 21, 2021
Dylan Cease has come back to Earth after a red-hot start to his season, but the overall story has still been a positive one for the 25-year-old right-hander. Cease does his best work at home, where he is 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA. The Twins roughed him up in Minnesota, but in 2 starts against the Twinkies at home, Cease pitched well, and the White Sox won both games. Chicago has won 9 of their last 11 games, and with Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert both getting close to returning after missing significant time due to injury, the White Sox are poised for a huge second half. That starts in this series with Minnesota, where Chicago has already taken 2 of the first 3 games, and I see them finishing off the series win today at home. A play on Chicago feels like a bargain at this price. Give me the White Sox.
Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Washington Nationals -110
- Detroit Tigers -125
- Chicago White Sox -145
$100 Bet Pays $581
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays Under 10.5 Runs (-110)
The game between the Blue Jays and Red Sox was rained out yesterday and will be made up later in a scheduled doubleheader, but today’s game will continue to be played as a 9-inning contest. Game 1 of this series was explosive as 17 runs hit the board, and I am hoping that the rain cooled off the bats, as I am jumping on the under today in game 2. Robbie Ray is having a career renaissance this year for Toronto, and in the first half, he was 8-4 with a 2.93 ERA. He has been particularly sharp recently, as he hasn’t allowed a run in either of his last 2 starts, and in the month of July, he has made 3 starts, working into the 7th inning in each game, and has an ERA of 0.87. For Boston, Garrett Richards hasn’t been super consistent, but he has been respectable on the road, with a sub-4-run ERA. Both of these teams swing a heavy bat, but 10.5 runs feels too high for a sneaky good starting pitching matchup. It really only takes one of these guys being sharp to keep this game under such a high total, and I am jumping on the under.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals Under 8 Runs (-110)
Talk about sneaky good starting pitching matchup; we have a doozy today in St. Louis, as the Cardinals take on the Cubs, with both teams starting veteran pitchers known for their ability to get guys out. Kyle Hendricks is tied for the MLB lead with 12 wins and has a solid 3.40 ERA on the road, and Adam Wainwright continues to find the fountain of youth at 39-years-young with a 2.84 ERA at Busch Stadium. This game means a lot in the NL Central Division race, as these teams are barely hanging on in the postseason conversation. I always lean towards the under in games that matter, as teams will play for 1-run innings more often, and runs are going to be harder to come by. This series has been fairly high scoring thus far, but I see that slowing way down today as this is going to be a pitcher’s duel that stays well under the total.
Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros Over 8.5 Runs (-110)
Coming into this season, the Clevland Indians found themselves in a spot where they needed some young starting pitching prospects to mature quickly if they wanted to compete for the AL Central Division title. Gone were guys like Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and Corey Kluber, instead replaced with the likes of young guns Triston McKenzie and today’s starter Eli Morgan. Morgan has made 6 starts this season for the Tribe, and he has been getting lit up, allowing at least 3 earned runs in each start and posting a 7.86 ERA. He faced these Astros earlier this month and got beaten up and picked up a losing decision for his efforts, and I have a feeling that Houston is going to blast him tonight. The Astros are the top scoring team in the game, and by a fairly wide margin, and after seeing them smash McKenzie yesterday, I see more of the same today against Eli Morgan. This game sails to the over early as Houston just might do enough to push it to the over all by themselves.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays Under 10.5 Runs -110
- Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals Under 8 Runs -110
- Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros Over 8.5 Runs -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
Philadelphia Phillies (+105) at New York Yankees
Yesterday we were able to back the New York Yankees as home underdogs and picked up an easy winner, but today we will switch gears and take Philly to knock off the Bronx Bombers on the road. New York is good at home, and Philly stinks on the road, so why am I taking the Phillies? To be honest, I don’t think New York is trying to win this game. The Yankees have decided to hold their rotation to set it up for a big weekend series with their hated rivals, the Boston Red Sox, and in this game, they will start Asher Wojciechowski. Who?
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) July 21, 2021
Don’t worry if you don’t recognize that name, as he hasn’t thrown a pitch in the Big Leagues all season long and was last seen in 2020 pitching for the Baltimore Orioles with an ERA approaching 7 runs. Wojciechowski has a career ERA of 5.95, and at 32 years old, he isn’t the type of guy that you start in a game that you are trying to win. Philly starter Matt Moore is also up there in age and well past his prime, but he has pitched well as of late, as the Phillies have won each of his last 4 starts. Moore is serving as a quasi-opener and won’t get too deep into this game, but with Asher Wojciechowski being a complete unknown, I am shocked to see the Yankees as favorites. I smell upset in the Bronx.
San Francisco Giants (+140) at Los Angeles Dodgers
Winning at Dodger Stadium is no small task, but if any team is up to it, it’s these San Francisco Giants. As much as the mainstream media wants to ignore the G-Men, they have the best record in the majors, and they are tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for the most road wins in the National League. Logan Webb is having a breakout season for the Giants with a 3.54 ERA. San Fransico has won each of his last 5 starts, and during that span, he has worked a combined 24 innings and allowed just 3 earned runs. Going back to April, the Giants are 9-2 when Webb pitches.
LaMonsters At Work pic.twitter.com/o2mCh9JW0M
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) July 21, 2021
Julio Urias was the World Series hero for LA last season, and he has followed it up this season with some strong results, as his 12 wins are tied for the Major League lead. Interestingly enough, Urias has actually been quite a bit better on the road than at home, as 9 of his 12 wins have come in other team’s ballparks. At home, Urias is 3-1 with a 4.27 ERA. Those certainly aren’t terrible numbers, but it does leave the door open for the Giants to sneak out of LA with a win tonight. I am not sure there is a spot where I wouldn’t want to get the Giants as big underdogs, no matter where they are playing. San Francisco wins far too consistently not to warrant some action at this price.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Philadelphia Phillies +105
- San Francisco Giants +140
$100 Bet Pays $492
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
Kansas City Royals at Milwaukee Brewers (-180)
There wasn’t a more shocking outcome yesterday than the Kansas City Royals winning in Milwaukee against the Brewers. The Royals have done a lot of losing in the last couple of months, but yesterday they managed to pull off the unlikely upset against what was a streaking Brew Crew. I think the winning streak ends at 1 game today, though, as the Brewers are the far superior team, and I think that they find a way to avenge yesterday’s blunder and get back on track tonight at home. KC has lost Brad Keller’s last 7 starts, and they have won just a single game when he pitches since May. The Royals have scored him 2 runs or less in support in 5 of those 7 outings. Milwaukee will do their best to erase yesterday’s poor performance, and I will lay some wood and back the Brewers.
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies (-135)
The Colorado Rockies are a joke on the road, but at home, they are actually one of the best teams in the National League. Only the San Diego Padres have more wins at home than the Rockies do, and even after dropping game 1 of this quick 2 game set with Seattle, they are the side to be on today. Austin Gomber has been stupid good at home, with a 1.48 ERA, and against a Mariner’s squad that is dead last in the game in team batting average, I would expect him to have a nice outing today. Seattle has been dealing with injuries all season long, and today they are going to start Keynan Middleton, a career reliever, who will make his first-ever Major League start. Middleton has pitched well out of the bullpen for Seattle with a 3.75 ERA, but making your first start in the show at Coors Field is a tough spot, and I don’t think he is going to be up for it. The Rockies roll.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks (-140)
This is a weird game. I really hate betting on the Arizona Diamondbacks, but that is what I will have to do if I want to be able to bet against the Pittsburgh Pirates. We are stuck between a rock and a hard place, as both of these teams are awful. Madison Bumgarner has been all over the place for Arizona this season, sometimes looking terrible and other times looking amazing, so it’s hard to tell which version of MaddyBums we are going to get on a given day. Bumgarner was fantastic in his last start, working 6 innings of 1-run ball against the Chicago Cubs, allowing just 2 base hits, and against this bad Pirates team, I see him having a lot of success. Max Kranick will make just the 3rd Big League start of his career tonight in the desert, and while he is an exciting young arm, I don’t think his team is up to the challenge of supporting him tonight. Give me the team playing against the Pirates in this one!
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (-125)
Adam Wainwright has been fantastic at home this season. He has taken a couple of hard-luck losses at Busch Stadium, but the overall body of work has been quite impressive. He has held opposing teams to 2 earned runs or less at home in 7 different starts, and the last time the Cards hosted the Cubs with Wainwright pitching, he spun a gem, working 8 shutout innings and giving up just a single base hit. Chicago is 19-31 on the road this season, and their struggles away from the Windy City are likely going to cost them a shot at the postseason, as they are stuck in 4th place in the NL Central Division. If this game were being played in Chicago, I would take the Cubs, but it’s not; it is in St. Louis, so I will follow the data and back the Red Birds.
Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros -1.5 Runs (-125)
No team in baseball has been better at covering the run line than the Houston Astros. Houston scores more runs per game than any other team in the majors, and I think they are going to hammer Eli Morgan tonight. Home teams on the run line are a very risky proposition, and this isn’t a play that I make very often, but games like this one are the reason the run line was invented. Expect McCullers to shut down the Indians at the plate and for Houston’s mighty lineup to jump all over youngster Eli Morgan in a game that is almost certain to get ugly.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Milwaukee Brewers -180
- Colorado Rockies -135
- Arizona Diamondbacks -140
- St. Louis Cardinals -125
- Houston Astros -1.5 Runs -125
$100 Bet Pays $1,504
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!