The final week of the Major League Baseball regular season is finally upon us! While the majority of the playoff seeding is finished, there are several teams still playing for their spot in the postseason. Over in the American League, the Rays and White Sox have already wrapped up their division titles, and the Astros magic number is sitting at just 1, with 5 games left to play. While the divisions aren’t offering much drama, the wild card race is more than making up for it, as we have 5 teams fighting for the final 2 playoff spots in the league.
Right now, the New York Yankees are occupying the 1st wild card in the AL, holding a half of a game lead over the Boston Red Sox, after sweeping Boston earlier this week. The Toronto Blue Jays are just 1 game back of Boston, and the Mariners are a half of a step behind, trailing the Bo Sox by a game and a half. The Oakland Athletics are still mathematically in the hunt as well, 3.5 games back of the pack.
Six days left, and the AL Wild Card race is still bananas.
— MLB (@MLB) September 28, 2021
Over in the National League, we have the exact opposite dynamic, as the wild card spots are set with the 2nd place team from the NL West taking the 1st spot and the red-hot St. Louis Cardinals locking down the final playoff spot. The NL East Division is still being decided, as the Atlanta Braves hold a 2.5 game lead over the 2nd place Philadelphia Phillies, with the teams playing a 3-game series kicking off tonight in Atlanta. The Giants and the Dodgers are also still battling for the NL West Division crown, with the G-Men trying to hold off the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Late season baseball is one of the most exciting times of the year, and the next couple of days are going to be highly entertaining, as we march towards Sunday’s final day of the regular season. We have been blistering hot all month long, and we will jump right back into it today, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros (-135)
A win tonight at home against the Tampa Bay Rays would give the Houston Astros the AL West Division title. Houston would love to be able to lock down the divisional crown, so they can rest up and set their rotation for the playoffs, where they are very likely to end up having to play the Tampa Bay Rays at some point if they want to make it back to the World Series. This game walks the line of meaning a lot, and meaning nothing all, at the same time.
The Rays are going to be the top seed in the AL playoffs no matter what happens in this series with Houston, and even though this game could seal the deal on a division title for the Astros, they are going to win this division at some point anyway, as all they need to do is win 1 game or have the Seattle Mariners lose 1 game this week, to take home the title.
This is very likely going to be the last time we see Michael Wacha start a game this season for Tampa Bay, as he shouldn’t be in the playoff rotation for the Rays. Wacha has been the weak link in this Rays rotation all year long, and he has been particularly bad on the road, with a 1-4 record and 6.56 ERA. Tampa Bay last lost each of his last 3 starts and 7 of his last 10 overall.
Battle atop the AL standings this week.
— Houston Astros (@astros) September 27, 2021
The Astros will answer Wacha with Jose Urquidy. Urquidy missed all of July and August and has been serviceable since rejoining the team earlier this month. In 4 September starts, Urquidy is 2-0 with a 4.34 ERA. Urquidy has faced the Rays only once this season, but he dazzled, tossing 7 shutout innings against Tampa Bay back in early May.
I have a feeling that the Rays are going to mail this one in a bit. Wacha is going to end up in the bullpen and possibly not even on the playoff roster, and if they really wanted to win this game, he wouldn’t be pitching. The Astros know that the division title is going to be there, but they would love nothing more than to wrap it up tonight so they can set their rotation for the postseason. That is exactly what I see happening as the Astros are going to knock around Michael Wacha and coast to a no sweat home field victory that ends in a champagne bath for the players in the clubhouse afterward.
Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies (-135)
What a strange season it has been for the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies narrowly avoided having the worst road record in the National League, with the Arizona Diamondbacks taking home those honors. But at home, the Rockies have actually been good, like really good. Only the San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, and Los Angeles Dodgers have a better home field record in the National League than the Rockies do, and they have been remarkably good as home favorites.
In fact, no team in the Major Leagues has a better record as home favorites than the Rockies this season, and really, it’s not even close. Colorado is a stunningly good 24-7 when favorites at home this year. That is good for a .774 winning percentage, with the Giants a distant 2nd at .719 and no other team in the game above .700. The formula for the Rockies this season has been a simple one. Bet them at home, fade them on the road.
HERE COME THE ROCKIES 👏 pic.twitter.com/BV5brTaROx
— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) September 28, 2021
The Rockies will try and stay hot at home as they turn to Kyle Freeland tonight to start. Freeland just pitched against these very same Nationals 10 days ago, and he was brilliant, working 6 innings without allowing a single run and picking up a win for his efforts. And that game was on the road, where the Rockies never win! Now that they are back in the rarified air of the Rocky Mountains, I expect Freeland to pitch even better.
Patrick Corbin gets the nod for the Nats, and I am sure that he is happy to see this nightmare of a season come to an end. Washington came into this season feeling like they had a shot at competing for the NL pennant, instead, they struggled early and blew it up at the trade deadline and are now in store for a multi-year rebuild. Corbin is one of the few guys left over from the 2019 World Championship team, but he may as well be gone, too, as he is a shell of his former self.
Corbin has a whopping 15 losses and an ERA approaching 6 runs. In his lone start against the Rockies this season, he got embarrassed to the tune of 6 runs, all earned, on an absurd 10 hits and 3 walks, in just 4 innings pitched. Washington has lost 11 of his last 15 starts, and they are going to lose this game as well. Washington is bad on the road, Colorado is great at home, and a play on the Rockies feels like a bargain at this price.
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners (+105)
The Seattle Mariners refuse to lose! The M’s have had their backs against the wall all month long, and they have responded with wins in 8 of their last 9 games and a 16-8 record on the month. While a trip to the postseason would still be a long shot for Seattle, don’t tell that to these guys, as they are playing hard down the stretch! Interestingly enough, the Mariners owe much of their success this season to their ability to beat the Oakland Athletics.
The Mariners have dominated Oakland this season, including beating them in their last 8 games. Had the A’s managed to just finish .500 against Seattle this year, they would be in the playoffs right now. But instead, the A’s are now 3.5 games back with 5 to play, and their postseason dreams have gone up in smoke. Oakland has to win tonight if they want any shot at backdooring into the postseason, and they will go with Chris Bassitt on the mound, looking to extend their season at least 1 more day.
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 28, 2021
Bassitt missed more than a month’s worth of action when he took a line drive off of his face and he just returned to the team last week. In his 1st start back, he faced these Mariners and looked rusty, as he was pulled after just 48 pitches. He was effective while in the game, but that time off clearly took its toll, and he isn’t going to be a guy that is going to get very deep into this game tonight.
The Mariners shuffled up their rotation today, choosing to start Tyler Anderson rather than Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi has been inconsistent, and Anderson has been fantastic, and with this game meaning so much to Seattle, the M’s decided to go with the hot hand. Anderson will be on short rest, but he just pitched against the A’s and was strong, pitching 7 innings and giving up just 1 earned run.
The Mariners need this game too badly, and have been playing far too well, to let it pass them by. The Mariners have been the best home underdog team in the majors this year, with a sizzling hot 29-18 record when getting juice in Seattle. Only time will tell if the Mariners can catch the Yankees, Red Sox, or Blue Jays for those last wild card spots, but as of now, the Mariners are all in on a postseason push, and I see them taking care of business tonight at home.
Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Houston Astros -135
- Colorado Rockies -135
- Seattle Mariners +105
$100 Bet Pays $623
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Over 7.5 Runs (-110)
Yu Darvish is not a good pitcher right now. His reputation and even his production in the 1st half have fooled people into believing that this guy is a good pitcher, but in the last several months, Darvish has been trash. Since the All-Star break, Darvish has an ERA north of 6 and a half runs, and he has allowed at least 4 earned runs or more in 7 of his last 10 starts.
I mean, I get it, Walker Buehler is filthy, and he isn’t going to give up many runs, but Darvish could be bad enough to send this one sailing to the over early all on his own. 7.5 run totals are generally reserved for elite starting pitching matchups, and while Darvish has the name, he doesn’t have the stuff right now. Give me the over.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants Over 8 Runs (-110)
The San Francisco Giants are surging their way to an NL West Division title, and I see them running up the score tonight against a bad DBacks team. Luke Weaver has an 0-5 record and 7.94 ERA on the road this season, and the Giants lead the National League in runs scored per game this month, at over 6 runs per game. Logan Webb is really good at home, but he has been a bit shaky this month, and this total feels at least a full run too low.
The Giants aren’t going to be playing games tonight, as they can ill afford a slip-up, and I see them plating enough runs to send this game to the over without much sweat. The Giants haven’t played a low scoring game in over a week, and I didn’t see that trend changing tonight at home.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox Over 9 Runs (-110)
This game is one of those meaningless late-season games, where one team has a division title wrapped up, and the other team is packing things up and looking towards next year. You can expect the White Sox to rest their best arms tonight, and that is going to lead to a high scoring affair. Both Cincy and Chicago can score a bunch of runs in a hurry, and with the Reds playing carefree with nothing to play for, and the Chicago bats happy to punish Riley O’Brien, who will be making his Big League debut, I see fireworks coming tonight in the Windy City.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Over 7.5 Runs -110
- Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants Over 8 Runs -110
- Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox Over 9 Runs -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
New York Yankees (+110) at Toronto Blue Jays
The New York Yankees had, by far, the toughest path to the postseason of all of these wild card hopefuls, with series against Boston, Toronto, and Tampa Bay to close out the regular season. But the Bronx Bombers swept the Red Sox, and they head to Toronto today, feeling pretty good about their chances with a 1-game lead over Boston for the 1st wild card.
Jameson Taillon hasn’t been very good on the road this season, but the Yankees do a lot of winning when he pitches. He has dropped his last 2 starts due to a lack of run support, but prior to that, New York had won 11 of his previous 12 starts. Taillon matches up with Blue Jays ace Hyun Jin Ryu today and looks to be the better side of the starting pitching matchup, as Ryu looks worn out.
A Standout Week from Big G.
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 27, 2021
Ryu was shut down and sent to the IL after his last outing, as he has not been sharp in the last several weeks and needed a break. After posting an ERA of right around 3 runs most of the season, the wheels have fallen off for Ryu down the stretch, as he has been getting smashed. After only allowing 4 earned runs once in the 1st half of the season, Ryu has given up at least 4 runs in 5 of his last 8 starts.
The Yankees are on fire, and I just can’t trust Ryu right now. Taillon probably gets lit us as well, but I see New York winning this one in a slugfest. In a game that could go either way, you always want to be on the side getting juice, not laying it, give me the Yankees.
Philadelphia Phillies (+105) at Atlanta Braves
Well, folks, this is it for the Philadelphia Phillies. A loss tonight will all but end the Phillies’ chances at the NL East division title. The Phillies trail the Braves by 2.5 games entering play tonight, and anything less than a series sweep for Philly is going to make it very hard for them to sneak into the playoffs. Philly puts their best foot forward tonight in this game that means so much, with Zack Wheeler getting the nod.
Wheeler will get his fair share of Cy Young Award votes at the end of the year, but no start will be bigger than this one. Wheeler has done everything humanly possible to lead his team to the playoffs, as the Phillies have won each of his last 5 starts, and this month, he has a stellar 3-0 record and 1.14 ERA in 4 starts.
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) September 26, 2021
The Braves know that they are 1 win in this series away from punching their ticket to the playoff and will start veteran Charlie Morton tonight. Morton has a reputation for being a big game pitcher, but he hasn’t been pitching very well recently. The Braves are just 3-7 in his last 10 starts despite him pitching decently, and Braves fans are hoping they can break through tonight and put away the division title once and for all.
I think Philly wins this game, and when I look at how this series lays out, they just might shock the world and sweep the Braves and snatch the NL East Division title up along the way. After Wheeler tonight, the Phillies will start Aaron Nola and Kyle Gibson, and that tells me that the Phillies will have a real shot at the sweep as those guys are all great. I won’t get too far ahead of myself tonight, but I will jump on the Phillies as underdogs in game 1 in Atlanta in a must-win spot.
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (+105)
How is this line even real life right now? The Cardinals have forgotten how to lose, with a 15-game winning streak and wins in 18 of their last 19 games. That run has taken them from fringe playoff contender to a sure-fire playoff team, as they have pulled away from the rest of the pack in the NL and will be taking home the 2nd wild card in the league.
I have been hammering the Cardinals on this winning streak, and shockingly, the books have made them underdogs in more than half of these games. I mean, I get it, the Brewers are a good team, and Brandon Woodruff is a stud, but the Cardinals just swept the Brewers in a 4-game series, in Milwaukee no less, running up a +15-run differential.
NLDS tickets are ON SALE NOW mood 🤟
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) September 28, 2021
When you see what Adam Wainwright has been able to do this season for the Red Birds, it makes this line that much harder to understand. Wainwright picked up his 2,000th strikeout in his last start, and he has thrown this team on his back at age-40. The Cardinals are 17-3 in his last 20 starts, including an active 7-game winning streak. They just don’t lose when he pitches, and I almost can’t believe that I can get him as a home dog. This team is way too hot to fade right now; give me the Red Birds as they make it 16 straight wins.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- New York Yankees +110
- Philadelphia Phillies +105
- St. Louis Cardinals +105
$100 Bet Pays $883
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
Boston Red Sox -1.5 Runs (-165) at Baltimore Orioles
I don’t make too many run line plays. That’s not to say I don’t like playing the run line, but it is always riskier than it seems on the surface. A lot of casual sports bettors will take the run line when they want to back a favorite, but they don’t want to lay all of the wood it costs to back them. That is what the books want you to do, and that is why the run line has a bad reputation.
The only time you want to lay that run and a half is if you have a compelling reason to think that the game is going to be a blowout. This game today is why the run line was invented, as the Orioles have the worst run differential in the game, and the Red Sox are in a dog fight for the playoffs, and they are going to run up the score any chance that they get. Boston loves to blow out bad teams, and the Orioles make getting blown out a regular occurrence. I will lay that run and a half tonight and back the Bo Sox.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (-105)
The Los Angeles Angels are stumbling to the finish line of yet another disappointing season. Despite having the best player in baseball in Shohei Ohtani, yeah, I said it, he is the best player in the game whether or not you refuse to acknowledge it or not, the Angels are going to finish in 4th place in the AL West Division anyway. LA is 2-8 in their last 10 games, and as weak as the Rangers have been, the Angels just shouldn’t be road favorites right now, no matter where they are playing. This play is a straight fade of the Angels much more than a show of confidence in Texas. I will take the Rangers.
Cleveland Indians (+100) at Kansas City Royals
We have been hammering the underdogs today, so it is fitting that our final play of the day is yet another underdog play. I will take the Cleveland Indians, at even money, in Kansas City, against the Royals. The Indians aren’t a playoff team, but they are close to contention and could still end up finishing this season with a winning record with a strong finish. The same thing cannot be said about the Royals though, as they are 14 games under .500 and are just hoping to just stay out of the basement of the AL Central Division, with a 2-game lead over the Twins for last place.
Today, you get the standing ovation.
Thanks for all your support this year, Cleveland. ❤️ pic.twitter.com/rOCotv8yJ1
— Cleveland Indians (@Indians) September 27, 2021
This is what I call a spot play, as this is just a nice spot for Cleveland. Aaron Civale lost a big chunk of his season due to injury and still managed to win double-digit games with a more than respectable 3.90 ERA. Civale has a sub-4-run career ERA, and he is going to be the far superior starter on the mound tonight when compared with the Royals Brady Singer. So, you are telling me that I can get the better overall team, with the better starter pitching, and I can get dog money to do it? Yeah, sign me up for that!
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Boston Red Sox -1.5 Runs -165
- Texas Rangers -105
- Cleveland Indians +100
$100 Bet Pays $628
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!