Monday MMA Mashup 10-12-2020

Monday Mashup UFC

The knockout of the night/year/decade that happened on Fight Island this past Saturday night.

There are tons of videos with the slow motion replay but I wanted you guys to see the live view first.

And hear it!

I’m pretty sure this made national news, though, so you probably already caught it.

This was a 200+ pound man doing that too.

And a 2 to 1 underdog as well.

We didn’t pick him to win, unfortunately. I thought Impa would force the grappling early on but he waited a bit too late against someone as peligroso as Joaquin Buckley.

That main event finish by our Fighter Focus athlete from last week, Cory Sandhagen, was pretty spectacular as well.

This is a highlight of the fight but it ended fairly early.

That’s why you can’t back up in a straight line, especially when someone that long and creative has space and time to throw some real funky stuff at you.

Overall, it was a very exciting night of fights.

We had 6 KO or TKO finishes but zero submissions.

That really surprised me.

Let’s quickly recap our night of betting and learn from any bad decisions we may have made.

Betting Recap

  • Tom Aspinall’s betting odds were pretty far up there so we took a flyer on him to finish the fight by submission.
  • It was (+1000) so I didn’t expect it to come in. Tom did take him down and the Frenchman quickly gave his back
  • He showed zero heart and just layed there waiting for the stoppage.
  • I would rather he have given his neck but the ref could tell he was packing it in and that was that
  • We had Ben Rothwell to bully Marcin Tybura and he did that but for only about 8 minutes until he gassed hard
  • Tybura, of course, looked great after that and took the decision
  • Dumb pick, really. I thought we could steal one with Big Ben but these two are arguably low-level heavyweights so a pass was the call.
  • The fight goes to a decision prop was the bet to make if anything with this fight
  • The undercard went very well for us. We have Ulanbekov and Tracy Cortez in different parlays and they both looked great.
  • I almost picked Egger to beat Cortez as she was becoming increasingly popular among handicappers in fight week but there just wasn’t enough tape on her to make an educated play
  • Giga Chikadze was my crown jewel of the night.
  • We got him at (+135)
  • He won a very dominant decision and almost finished the fight with strikes
  • This one meant the most because every other picker and predictor I know was all over Morales as the favorite
  • Omar has just never really impressed me and Chikadze is an elite striker who is now 4-0 inside the Octagon
  • I was worried about the takedown but to many folks’ surprise, Giga defended perfectly
  • We hit on Tony Kelley at (-200). Nothing big there but he was dominant minus one guillotine attempt from Ali Al Qaisi
  • I also picked Makwan Amirkhani at (+225) to possibly get the submission early against Edson Barboza.
  • While Makwan was able to take Edson down on 3 of 6 attempts, he wasn’t able to capitalize
  • At (+225), you only need to justify a 36% chance of winning for Makwan to make a play on him.
  • I was right about the takedowns but we should have remembered that Edson has been down there getting smashed by two of the biggest Lightweights on the roster, Kevin Lee and the champ, Khabib Nurmagomedov.
  • I also picked Moraes to beat Sandhagen a couple of weeks out from the fight. That was a terrible pick as he was only a small dog and the matchup heavily favored the much bigger/longer fighter with the better gas tank
  • Our two losses were both underdogs but neither were smart bets

A Look Ahead at the Weekend

Is it time for UFC 254 Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje yet?

Not quite.

We still have another fight card this Saturday and then only a week.

So, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

There’s also a light near the end of the tunnel and that is the long-awaited matchup of The Korean Zombie Chan Sung Jung vs Brian T-City Ortega.

This Saturday’s main event from Fight Island is one of the most anticipated fights of the year.

These two were set to fight on December 21st but Brian, unfortunately, tore his ACL and we had to be postponed.

That is a heck of a recovery process but nothing new to the mixed martial arts community.

  • Wrestling is hard on the body – all this stuff is pretty harsh overall.
  • Boxing is bad for your hands and even worse for your brain.
  • Both body parts rank pretty high on the importance list.
  • I don’t see too many guys tearing their ACL when they’re just boxing.

I’ve seen it in the Muay Thai clinch before but normally, it is in a takedown vs takedown defense situation.

You have to be explosive to get a trained opponent or partner off their feet.

In fighting, sometimes angles can be angels but they can also be ol’ Luci after he lost his wings.

I hope the Brian Ortega we see fight this Saturday night is the best version of himself.

He had better hope so because Chan Sung Jung has exceeded expectations almost every time he steps inside the Octagon.

Both men have similar styles and unique styles for that matter.

A lot of times, Brazilian Jiu Jitsu is paired with Muay Thai or most recently, wrestling, as a base.

And many wrestlers tend to rely on their hands to carry the brunt of their striking load.

Like Nick and Nate Diaz only more refined, we have The Korean Zombie and T-City.

Both fighters are lethal on the mat and have put people away with their boxing skills and natural power.

  • The Korean Zombie is just 5’7” tall but boasts a reach of 6’.
  • Brian is 5’8″ with 3 fewer inches in the reach department.

The betting odds opened at (-210) for the South Korean superstar and (+180) for the Mexican American, Ortega.

They haven’t moved too much so far, now (-181) vs (+156), with some money coming in on the underdog.

I will have to break this one down farther but this one may come down to wrestling before it does striking.

Both men are incredibly high level on the mat but we do have to flash all the way back to 2012 to see the last time the Korean Zombie submitted someone.

It was a submission of Dustin Poirier which is pretty darn impressive, though, considering the only other man that can say they did that in an MMA fight is Khabib Nurmagomedov.

I can see why the South Korean is the favorite but I do think the betting line is off in his favor.

We will come back to these two as the week progresses and make our prediction for the main event.

French heavyweight prospect Ciryl Gane will be in action and featured in the co-main event.

His betting odds have gotten out of hand but we have him on a couple of parlays from about a month back.

He is up around (-600) now so we may look at a finishing prop for him this week.

We have already previewed Jessica Andrade vs Katlyn Chookagian.

I think Katlyn wins 6 of 10 times and we can get her as a slight dog.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

This is kinda like Giga Chikadze from this past weekend although I don’t believe many of my colleagues will be all over Andrade.

In another exciting ladies fight, Gillian Robertson comes in as the 2 to 1 favorite over Brazilian Muay Thai striker, Poliana Botelho.

I think Robertson has the sauce to get this one to the mat where she wants it and win about 7 fights should these two women square up 10x.

Other notable competitors will be the full time UFC cornerman and fighter, James Krause as well as Khabib’s cousin Said Nurmagomedov.

There are a lot of names on the card I am not yet familiar with or I would go more in depth with you guys today.

There are just so many new guys and gals every week.

I promise you guys that I am putting the time in taping these fighters.

I’m catching up, though, with all the new talented fighters, for example, Australia’s Jimmy Crute.

It took me a while to learn who this guy was but he has been a cash cow for us for two fights in a row now.

Crute fights this Saturday night on the main card and is a big favorite.

We may either parlay his betting odds or look for either a decision or finishing prop for the Aussie.

In Conclusion

It’s going to be hard to top last week’s highlights but the main event of Brian Ortega vs Chan Sung Jung is a much better fight and more highly anticipated than Sandhagen/Moraes.

We may be getting a real gift with the betting odds on Brian Ortega.

I do know this.

His lead cornerman/big brother/mentor/shadow, Rener Gracie, has contracted COVID-19 and did not make the trip to Fight Island.

That is a worry but you’re going to have a hard time convincing me that this fight isn’t pretty darn close to a pick’em.

The rest of the fight card could have a ton of value as well.

Please Note:
With all of the new names, there does come uncertainty but for that reason, we are getting some valuable spots. If the whole card was just fighters everyone was quite familiar with then the books would get most of the betting lines correct and we wouldn’t have as many edges as we do today.

MMA betting could change dramatically in the future if fights are scored as a whole and not 3 or 5 rounds.

Scoring of 10-9 or 10-9 and sometimes 10-8 each round is a whole lot easier for us to predict than an 82-18 first round followed by a 24-76 second round with the third looking more like 50/50.

As a fan, sometimes the scoring sucks.

I agree.

But as bettors, we should really take advantage of it while it lasts.

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Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.