Monday MMA Mashup – June 7

Monday Mashup June 7

Hey, it was a good show…a bit surprising for me which isn’t a great thing considering we are trying to predict the future. We didn’t take many shots on the dogs and some plus money fighters came through this past Saturday in Vegas.

Kamuela Kirk, Ilir Latifi, Santiago Ponzinibbio, and Gregory Rodrigues were all able to get the dub. Latifi got the nod by split decision but the other three were pretty convincing. Unfortunately, we were on none of these dogs’ tails and fell victim to two of them following favorites, Dusko Todorovic and Miguel Baeza.

I smelled a couple of these dogs but I didn’t have it in me last week for some reason to pull the trigger. Let’s look at the rest of our betting night and then move on to this week’s massive pay per view event in front of a live crowd in Glendale, Arizona. Odds come from our trusted friends at BetOnline.ag.

Betting Recap

Dusko Todorovic

This is one of the upsets I kind of smelled but I thought on short notice and Gregory being so muscular, the likelihood of him gassing out was pretty good. That didn’t happen, though, as he took a unanimous decision over Dusko Todorovic.

Dusko is very skilled and presses forward. To me, I saw this one playing out with Gregory being dangerous early on but ultimately succumbing to the cardio of a better conditioned fighter due to having much longer to train.

I’ll take this one on the chin and on to the next.

Miguel Baeza

I liked Baeza here against Santiago Ponzinibbio for a few reasons. I thought he had more routes to victory, was the much younger fighter, and Santiago was coming off of the worst performance of his UFC career.

That worst performance, though, was his first fight back after two years and I took it into account, just not enough. It was a big step up for Baeza as well and we underestimated the value there as well.

30 fights to 10 fights is a big difference.

Roman Dolidze

Okay, thank you, Roman! I really didn’t want to start the night 0-3. We were spot on about this fight except we underestimated the wrestling of the Argentine, Staropoli.

Dolidze did his thing. The UFC is still going to have to bring him up slowly but the guy has a high ceiling. Team Georgia does it again. Shocker.

Marcin Tybura

This was another W for us. Marcin is the better fighter and he proved once again that Uncle Mo is certainly on his side and appears to be pretty freaking loyal. I didn’t see him getting it done in the first round, though. That was a surprise.

If anyone got a w inside of the first five minutes of action, I thought it would be Walt Harris. Tybura got the takedown, though, and worked from there to get the TKO win. Well done and do we see him get a shot at the winner of the main event, Jairzinho Rozenstruik?

Augusto Sakai

We didn’t follow the line movement in this fight and paid for it. The heavyweight division is what it is, though. Knockouts happen to everyone sooner or later. Augusto Sakai had never been knocked out in 20 pro fights but didn’t even make it out of the first round against Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

I thought we were on the right side with volume vs power in a pick em fight but power won this one. Jairzinho fought very wisely. He made the less powerful man trade with him and from there, it’s arithmetic.

UFC 263

Pannie Kianzad vs Alexis Davis

I like Pannie here. She is the younger fighter and has enough pop and weight behind her punches to keep the zombie like approach of Alexis Davis off of her.


Alexis won her last fight against Sabrina Mazo that way but Mazo is a beanpole. Pannie has an excellent jab, one of the best in the division, and I expect her to use it quite often against Davis who primarily moves forward in a straight line.

Drew Dober vs Brad Riddell

Boy is this going to be a fun one! These two guys can strike at a high level and both possess power in each hand. Riddell is the more traditional Muay Thai striker while Dober actually comes from a wrestling background.

I think Drew has been working his takedowns this camp and has one more path to victory than his opponent. When you look at this, though, from a stylistic standpoint, you see Dober with a very low takedown percentage in his career fighting inside of the Octagon and imagine this one will likely play out on the feet.

Riddell is more decorated there but this is an MMA fight and I love what we have seen from Drew lately. I think this one is much closer to a 50/50 fight and I might even edge the American since he is used to a dry climate and will only be traveling less than 2 hours in a plane to get to Arizona.

You can get Drew Dober for (+145) right now at BetOnline.AG. I can’t imagine any more money will come in on Riddell, at least where the line is right now so I might get after this one early and make your first play of the week for UFC 263.

The Bets
Drew Dober
+145

In Conclusion

That is all I have for you guys as of right now. I don’t want to get cocky and start shooting at the deer while they’re so far off in the distance. Let’s let fight week play out and very soon, some bucks and bulls will be much closer and clearer targets.

As far as the main event goes, I am on Israel Adesanya.

You can’t discredit him for losing to the Light Heavyweight Champion, Jan Blachowicz. That guy is making everyone look bad right now and the size difference was huge.

There aren’t any props out on the how or when, only the who. I am leaning towards Israel by unanimous decision, though. I think his jab will be too good and the takedown defense will hold up.

I want to make a play on Pannie Kianzad also but the decision prop is the way to go in this one.

They will be in the large Octagon and Alexis Davis is as durable as they come. She does have all that scar tissue, though, but betting on a doctor’s stoppage is a bit of a reach.

We will be back soon with more picks and predictions. I love method of victory plays on pay per view cards!

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

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Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.

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