Monday MMA Mashup – UFC July 19

Miesha Tate-And Islam Makhachev UFC

UFC Fight Night Las Vegas was a success as fans got to see more than 3 rounds in the main event as well as a finish from the star of the night, Islam Makhachev. The protege of Khabib Nurmagomedov showed out against a game and highly skilled opponent in Thiago Moises.

This was the first time Islam had fought a Jiu Jitsu guy who could also strike.

But the Dagestani wrestling is quite the equalizer, as we know. In the end, though, Islam was able to get the rear-naked choke submission win in the fourth round.

I can remember looking at the betting line for a 4th round submission win by Islam because it went against the narrative, which meant there was probably value there and obviously picking the how and the when paid well.

To the tunage of 40-1, ugh.

That’s okay, though. We didn’t have the best night betting, but we were on Miesha Tate and Amanda Lemos, and those two did their thing with clean finish wins.

This coming Saturday, though, we have a gigantic Bantamweight matchup, and normally this would be an oxymoron, but we will be treated to the return of former 135 kingpin TJ Dillashaw after a 2 year ban for EPO use, an endurance drug.

I don’t know how much of a treat it will be for TJ, though.

Because Cory Sandhagen will be standing across the Octagon from him set to go 5 rounds. The two men have trained together before, and the story is that Cory was getting the better of TJ, and this was years ago when Dillashaw was the champ and Sandhagen had yet to make his Octagon debut.

Stylistically, the two are very similar, and along with the influence of Frankie Edgar’s style, it isn’t difficult to see that TJ modeled much of what he likes to do from Dillashaw. Dillashaw was a Colorado guy before he was a SoCal guy, but after, of course, he was a NorCal Alpha Male.

I am really psyched for this one and I am leaning towards Cory in this spot.

But years off of competition, potentially losing confidence in your ability to perform after you don’t have your drug anymore, coupled with Cory, a fighter who looks better and better every time we see him out there, standing across the Octagon from him…

This is a tough fight and, from a betting perspective, a highly difficult pick. If anything, I think this fight may go the distance. We will see what that line looks like and maybe give y’all a lean today on the main event, but we have the rest of the week to make a play.

Also:
This is a challenging prediction for anyone, and so I don’t foresee any massive line movement that could price either guy out for us, so waiting is okay in this instance.

Let’s review the rest of our betting night from this past Saturday and also look ahead to what is a very intriguing fight card from Las Vegas on Saturday. The betting lines we will use today are brought to us by BetOnline.AG, the world’s leader in mixed martial arts betting.

They have bonuses for your first deposit and also if you are a Bitcoiner, then you can avoid any fees.

UFC Fight Night Betting Recap

Miles Johns

Miles was our first pick of the night, but some more shady stuff went down as the fighter with probably the most betting value and quite affordable was pulled from the card because his opponent or Anderson dos Santos’ camp tested positive for COVID.

When they cancel a fight last minute that doesn’t have a great deal of betting value then come at me with the conspiracy theorist claims.

But until then, I am calling bull malarkey. I wasn’t the only capper telling you to hammer Miles Johns.

Once the fight was cancelled:
A lot of guys came forward with their prediction, and it mirrored what we had. At (-170), he was a steal, and once the line moved to (-210) after all of us said to pick him, Vegas did what they do and poof…another one gone.

And again, I am not the only one who has noticed this, but at the end of the day, it is what it is. If we make enough money off of a sportsbook, they can just ban you for whatever reason they want.

We don’t have rights, really.

We are just playing by their rules, but I am okay with that. We will beat them anyway.

Amanda Lemos

Guys, I have been telling y’all to hammer this lady ever since before the Mizuki Inoue fight when she was the betting underdog. Amanda Lemos is a problem, and she has now finished two consecutive opponents in the first round.

These Strawweights cannot match her power, and they can’t take it either. The Brazilian, a former Bantamweight at 135 pounds, is obviously big for 115, but she can really crack, and that is not something many women in her weight class can say they do.

Joanna, Rose, Weili…

They all hit hard for the weight class but they aren’t finishing fighters with punches in the first round.

Joanna and Weili hit each other, what? 200 times each. How many strikes from Amanda Lemos is either of them going to absorb before they fall?

Just saying, and this was a win for us two fold. Amanda put away Mexican fighter Montserrat Ruiz in the first. She didn’t even do it moving forward either. She let Montserrat walk into them as Lemos, the much larger woman, was the one playing matador.

Beautiful work from her, and we had Amanda to win the fight by stoppage, which hit at (+115). We also had Amanda on a parlay with Miesha Tate for a (+108) payout. Miesha did her thing to the fullest, and so that cashed as well.

Parsons/Rodriguez Over 1.5

Womp womp. Wow, D Rod is the truth!

This guy is a problem! Preston Parsons was game, but Rodriguez proved he is simply on another level. Parsons has been in there with UFC guys before, so I thought maybe he could hang for 7 and a half minutes especially considering he had the wrestling advantage on paper.

We had close to even money on the over here and who knows.

Maybe it would hit 6+ times out of 10, so we can’t get too mad. I don’t want to bet against D Rod anymore, though. I have heard from some guys at my old gym in Vegas that he is that good, so ignoring that advice was a mistake.

Gabriel Benitez

Wow, this was not our night. I felt pretty good about this fight, but the betting favorite got mopped by Billy Quarantillo. Taking a fight on short notice against this guy is a mistake, but we didn’t even win the first round.

This one hurt as I obviously hate to lose, which I think is a great quality in a person but losing badly where it wasn’t even close hurts.

Some will tell you that the close losses hurt more, that isn’t true for me. If I was close, then I know I was at least onto something but losing by 3rd round TKO as well as every round is not coo…

Miesha Tate

Miesha Cupcake Tate successfully made her return to competitive mixed martial arts on the quest for another world title at 135 pounds. It surprised a lot of folks that I talked to before the fight how well she did but not me.

Run back the tape. I told you guys to hammer that pinata of a Cupcake because it wasn’t like she was returning to fight a young, hungry lion or anything.

Yes, it was true that Miesha Tate hadn’t fought in 5 years. Well, Marion Reneau doesn’t have a win in the past half of a decade either. Her takedown defense stinks. She is 44. She was put in there to lose to Miesha Tate.

I understand that a lot of my peers have rules, and betting on a returning fighter after multiple years away from competition isn’t the best idea, but if there ever was a time to break your own rules, this was it.

Miesha to the house for (-140) and she closed at (-180) which means we were ahead of the steam and spot on about her performance.

Islam Makhacehev

I thought the Brazilian’s submission defense was going to hold up and Islam would win this fiht by decision. I also thought that his coaches and handlers wanted him to go the full 25 minutes and maybe they did but Islam closed the show midway through the 4th round.

Our payout would have only been even money so I definitely think it was a mistake. Normally, I take advantage of the extra rounds when betting a method of victory prop and go with the wins inside the distance line but not this time.

Bad bet from me to end the night.

I really think the Miles Johns play would have helped our night considerably because I did tell you guys to bet that one hard along with the parlay as well as Lemos and Tate singularly.

We lost out on the over 1.5 in the D Rod fight as well as Islam but our 3 wins were solid.

Take away the multiple unit bets and make them all 100 bucks. We finished with a 100 dollar profit on a risk of 500 which is 20% and spot on our average for the past 21 months.

Not a great night but maintaining our return on investment numbers is still solid as well, especially on a fight card where there wasn’t a ton of betting value.

UFC Fight Night Las Vegas Betting Preview

Randy Costa vs Adrian Yanez

This is a really fun fight here and even though I favor the better boxer in this matchup, Adrian Yanez, I think the betting line is off. Right now, BetOnline.AG has Adrian as a (-220) betting favorite and the comeback on the underdog Randy Costa is (+185)!

Costa is good, guys.
I know he didn’t have much of a pro career prior to his debut inside the Octagon but he has just one loss on his professional mixed martial arts record. That loss, though, isn’t the best one as he got submitted by Brandon Davis, a fighter he should have beaten.

It was his Octagon debut, though, and he was just 4-0 at the time! And his opponents at the time of their fights with him had a combined record of 5-14.

Not a good a look, Randy.

What is a good look is the eye test on Costa. I was very impressed but I can also say that Adrian Yanez wowed me even more.

Adrian isn’t perfect, though, and has 3 losses on his pro MMA record to go along with 13 victories. So, Adrian will have double the experience of Randy in this fight which does count but both have about the same amount of Octagon time.

And it isn’t much.

Adrian won his Contender Series fight over Brady Huang in 39 seconds. Then, he fought Viktor Rodriguez and it took him all of 2 minutes and 46 seconds to get his first official UFC win.

  • Next up for Adrian was solid veteran, Gustavo Lopez. Lopez is really tough and hung around until the third and that is when he was TKO’ed.
  • For Randy, he has a couple of TKO wins himself after dropping his UFC debut to Davis. Those TKO’s came at 41 seconds and 2:15 of the first round, respectively. So, this is clearly not the fight you want to turn on late.
Don’t blink but where to bet?

I don’t know but I am possibly targeting a shot here on the underdog. Randy Costa is the taller man by two inches and has 3 inches of advantage in the reach department.

That counts and Yanez is a killer but you have to think about the implied probabilities here. The books have it at 69% for the favorite and 35% for Costa. If you think Randy has at least a 40% chance to win, then make the play.

I am going to have to watch more tape on each guy before I bet against Adrian Yanez, one of the most promising prospects and clean punchers in the UFC.

Ian Heinisch vs Nassourdine Imavov

I feel a lot better about fading Ian Heinisch, who the online sportsbooks continually love too much, than Adrian Yanez.

Run the tape back, guys.
The books continually have confidence in a fighter like Ian when he is more often than not, out skilled. Nassourdine is an excellent all around mixed martial artist and in my opinion, has more skill than Ian.

Ian beats fighters with his size, strength, and most importantly, conditioning. I haven’t seen any of those holes in the MMA game of Nas yet. Imavov will have 4 inches of height, 3 inches of a reach advantage, and will be 7 years younger than the nearly 33 year old Ian Henisch.

Imavov doubled up Jordan Williams on strikes in his UFC debut and then fought Phil Hawes and doubled him up as well even though he was taken down 4 times. Hawes is a beast and we were on Imavov in that fight.

The French Russian or Russian Frenchman…What’s that? He is the Russian Sniper? Okay, lima charlie.

The Russian Sniper is a bad matchup for Ian Heinisch but remains the betting underdog in this fight.

He is the better striker and I think the better wrestler as well. Ian gets outwrestled and outstruck when he fights guys with a higher skill level and I think that is what we will see here.

(+135)? Okay, take it to the house!

Heinisch’s only path to victory here is a TKO, in my opinion. Hawes is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and he wrestled at Iowa State. He is a legit grappler.

Just because he took Nas down doesn’t mean Ian is going to do the same thing.

I think the line is way off here and I am going with the guy from Queensbridge because all he needs is One Mike to move this line.

I told you guys to bet on him when the fight was first made so let’s make a play on Nas right now!

Punahele Soriano vs Brendan Allen

Puna opened at (-220) and now he is approaching underdog status at (-108). You should make a play on him just because. Yes, Allen looked good in his last fight but om, did you catch Puna’s last fight?

He dusted Dusko and Tudorovic has since lost his next fight and I think that is part of the reason people are fading the Hawaiian but Puna did his job. He knocked out Tudorovic and ruined our betting play.

I have some friends who coach Puna and they have told me that he is that good and one look at the guy is enough to make anyone believe. He isn’t your average Hawaiian fighter. He wrestled at a high level competitively.

Here he is working on his walking down of Brendan Allen with a former coach of mine, Nate Petitt, one of the unsung heroes of Xtreme Couture’s resurgence.

Also, you know they are doing something right at Xtreme Couture. Brad Tavares now has legendary takedown defense and Francis Ngannou completely flipped the script on Stipe Miocic in their rematch by taking him down.

Puna’s implied probability has moved nearly 20% to the south. Is there an injury or something? Allen can wrestle a bit but honestly, I don’t rate his takedowns any higher than those of Dusko.

Maybe Puna isn’t a 70/30 fighter like the odds suggested when they were released but I do have him at 60/40 which gives us a nice edge on the current 50/50 line. I don’t know whether to tell you guys to wait to make a play or not because I don’t see why it has moved this far to begin with.

I can’t imagine it will much more, though. The number guys will see they have an opening 68% favorite as a pick em and will move it back the other way. I am guessing it will be Puna at (-135) by fight time.

Make the play on Puna!

Cory Sandhagen vs TJ Dillashaw

This one is going to be fun! I will just say that. They are both great strikers and we might see the old dog with some old tricks in this fight.

TJ might take him down or at least try but his head coach is still Duane Ludwig so I wouldn’t bet on it.

Cory is a (-180) betting favorite in this fight and I think that is a little crazy.

He hasn’t shown us that he can go for 5 rounds. There isn’t anything suggesting otherwise that we have seen but he still isn’t nearly as proven as TJ.

Well, EPO’s TJ that is. This one is tough and we already made more official plays than I wanted to today so I will shut up.

In Conclusion

We survived last week but I am still bummed out about Miles Johns not getting us another win.

Islam Makhachev will now be a betting favorite over just about the entire division.

I might make Charles Oliveira a (-140) favorite over him but still, Islam is a problem.

Is he the second coming of Khabib Nurmagomedov, though? That remains to be seen but it won’t be that long because Khabib really didn’t do all that much. He took down and submitted some boxers, a couple who used to fight a weight class below.

Eh, I will stop. He was very dominant but you can’t be the GOAT if you pull out of 12 fights and hold the belt for a couple years. Just saying…

As for next week
We have some really sexy matchups from a betting perspective. It is important, though, that we take our time whenever possible because new information will be released as the week progresses and there are, of course, the weigh ins on Friday that can change everything.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

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Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.

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