NASCAR AAA 400 Drive for Autism Betting Preview

Whenever I think about the city of Dover, Delaware, I can’t help but imagine what it must feel like for all of the troops flying into Dover Air Force Base on the C-5 Globemaster return flight from a Middle East deployment. Almost every troop comes through Dover. These brave women and men are setting foot on U.S. soil for the first time in a year or more.

If it weren’t for these heroes, there wouldn’t be any NASCAR race at the Monster Mile or anywhere else for that matter. It’s very important that we do not forget the sacrifices others are making for us all the time.

While NASCAR drivers aren’t on the track dodging bullets, they are sacrificing quite a bit of their safety for our entertainment as fans and bettors.

NASCAR is the #1 spectator sport in the world with nearly 90% of the most attended sporting events in the country being NASCAR races.

One interesting fact I found is that 40% of NASCAR fans are women. Hopefully, more women will follow in the footsteps of Danica Patrick and continue challenging the guys in this long-time male-dominated sport.

Betting on a NASCAR race can be a lot of fun. It can also “drive” you darn near crazy. One bad pit stop, one piece of debris on the track, or a well-timed nudge that sends a driver spinning out of the race can happen at any point.

These are all reasons why it is rather foolish to only bet on one driver to win per race. With this formula, you might get one or two right all year if you bet on every race. As I just mentioned, the fun you paid for with your wager can come to a screeching halt, if you will, at any moment.

Bovada has released some betting odds for most of the drivers in this week’s race. Don’t be shy with your bets. I encourage you to spread out your money among some of the favorites and maybe throw a little change on a sleeper or two.

I would hate to see you sit down in your recliner on Sunday with all your weekly betting cash on heavy favorite Kyle Busch (+350) only to watch him have engine troubles early in the race taking him out of contention for a checkered finish.

The Monster Mile at Dover is 400 laps and 400 miles. The track is unique in that it is the only 1-mile track that is also banked. It is similar to Bristol Motor Speedway, so it should be a rather helter-skelter race with lots of caution flags. That is all the more reason to place multiple wagers on several different drivers to cruise into victory lane on Sunday.

Let’s see what odds the sportsbook has for each driver to win at Dover International Speedway.

Odds to Win AAA 400 Drive for Autism

Kyle Busch +350
Kevin Harvick +500
Kyle Larson +550
Martin Truex Jr +600
Chase Elliott +800
Jimmy Johnson +800
Brad Keselowski +1500
Denny Hamlin +1500
Joey Logano +1500
Ryan Blaney +2250
Clint Bowyer +2500
Kurt Busch +3000
Daniel Suarez +8000
Ryan Newman +10000
Austin Dillon +12500

Kyle Busch (+350) and Kevin Harvick (+500)

Kyle Busch recently had a 3-race win streak snapped last week at the Geico 500 at Talladega Motor Speedway. His brother Kurt almost took home the victory finishing 2nd to Joey Logano while Chase Elliott followed Kurt in 3rd place, and Kevin Harvick placed 4th.

Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch have dominated victory lane this year so far. Harvick had a 3-race win streak as well. That’s 6 victories in the 10 full races of the Monster Energy Cup Series this year since we kicked off the season in Daytona in February.

In addition to their 3 wins each, both Busch and Harvick have 4 other top 5 finishes for a total seven top 5’s for both drivers in just 10 races.

Kyle Busch has placed higher consistently with an average finish of 5.7 compared to an average finishing position for Kevin Harvick of 9.2. Another plus for Kyle Busch is the fact that he has finished in 1st or 2nd seven different times at Dover compared to only 2 for Kevin Harvick.

Kyle is currently leading the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series points standings and is driving as well if not better than anyone on the track week in and week out.

There isn’t a huge payout for you (+350) if he wins, but I can’t let you pass on him this week. Give him a good chunk of the cash you plan to spread around the field of potential winners.

Kevin Harvick has won here twice before, and absolutely can this Sunday. He comes in at +500 which I believe to be very good value. Ford drivers are dominating the Series this year with 6 of the top 8 drivers in the points standings driving a Fusion. Harvick should be there in the end with a good chance to win.

Joey Logano (+1500) and Jimmy Johnson (+800)

The driver with the most top 10 finishes this year is Joey Logano with 8! A driver can’t be much more consistent than that as we have only had 10 races thus far this season. Yet, he is +1500 to win. I love the value here as Joey has the car, skill, and experience to return to victory lane this year for the second time.

Joey ranks second in average starting position (7.4) and average finishing position (6.7) this year. So, we know he has a fast vehicle and the smarts to know when to push the pace and also when to exercise an aspect of a driver’s personality that often goes overlooked, patience.

I like a small bet on Logano as he is coming off a win at Talladega last week. A small wager of just 10 dollars can net you 150 bucks.

Jimmy Johnson has had far more success in Delaware than any driver in this year’s field. Jimmy has 11 victories at the Monster Mile. That’s incredible, even for the most dominant driver of the past 15 years.

Both drivers have excellent value, so add these two to your betting spread!

Chase Elliott (+800) and Austin Dillon (+12500)

Where are the prop bets for 2nd thru 5th place when you need them? Chase Elliott has been the gatekeeper too many times in his young career. Yes, he has some heavy shoes to fill as his Dad is a legend and one of the most popular NASCAR drivers of all-time. The kid just can’t seem to get over the proverbial hump, though, never having found his way to victory lane in 87 races.

He hasn’t stunk it up by any means. He has 25 top 5 finishes in those 87 races, but alas no wins.

I believe he can be one of the top 3 drivers in NASCAR one day, but he will need to win at least one race before we can further that conversation.

At +800 to win, he has decent value. It would be a cool story, though, if you bet on the kid and he gets his first win for you.

Austin Dillon surprised a lot of us with his win at Daytona a few months back. The confident youngster driving Dale Earnhardt’s old ride has shown he can win on the biggest stage. Dover is a very different track than Daytona of course.

That’s why Austin has such long odds to win. I like him as a sleeper here. Throw your smallest bet on him. The payout will be worth the small risk if he wins.

In Conclusion

Dover is always an exciting race as it is only a mile long but is banked and made of concrete. The spots where the concrete slabs are laid together will give the track that extra bit of uncertainty that makes these small tracks so much fun.

Kyle Busch is the favorite of most experts and, of course, has the lowest odds (+350) to be the first driver to see the black and white checkered flag on Sunday. He has won here before several times before and is currently the hottest driver in the Series.

The second hottest driver right now is Kevin Harvick. He is first in the Series this year with 540 laps lead and has 8 top ten finishes already in just 10 races.

Joey Logano, while 9th in laps lead this year, has 9 top ten finishes. This tells us that he is an opportunistic winner who knows when to gas and pass.

Jimmy Johnson is the undisputed “King of the Monster Mile at Dover”.

Through experience and skill, he knows how to race this particular track better than anyone in history.

Chase Elliott and Austin Dillon highlight the next generation of NASCAR superstars. Can Chase have people “chasing” him when the white flag is waved? I hope so because he really really needs a win to make the next step in his career.

Austin Dillon already has that breakout victory and some long odds that will pay well for this Sunday’s race.

I like a good money spread between the driver’s I’ve listed with Kurt Busch and Jimmy Johnson as my favorites to win.

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