NASCAR Consumer Energy 400 Betting Preview

Nascat at Michigan - Consumer Energy 400

You can not only see and smell this giant majestic creature sitting in your living room but you can hear him too. The elephant has something to tell you if you missed last week’s race or missed the headlines in NASCAR early this week.

Chase Elliott has finally won a race, ya’ll!

We knew he had it in him since the day he was born. His father Bill is a living legend in the world of motorsports, and we knew it was only a matter of time before he got over that proverbial hump.

You never forget your first, and Chase Elliott will always remember Watkins Glen as his first victory. Most fans and media didn’t expect Chase’s first trip to victory lane to be at a road course, but he surprised us all.

What does this mean for the future of the Monster Energy Cup Series?

Will we have a new superstar as Chase Elliott’s confidence is at an all-time high?

Could he add his name to the big 3 of Harvick, Busch, and Truex Jr and make it the big 4?

Maybe I’m getting carried away, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts winning more races sooner than later.

Speaking of the big 3, Kevin Harvick returns to his usual position as the betting favorite this week at (+275).

Minus his win at New Hampshire three weeks ago, Kevin hasn’t recorded a victory since the All-Star Race in Charlotte way back on Memorial Day Weekend.

Can he return to form in time for the playoffs?

It will prove difficult to do so this week as he only has but one career victory at Michigan International in 35 career starts.

This could be another good week for drivers not named Truex Jr, Busch, or Harvick.

Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and the winner of this June’s race at Michigan, Clint Bowyer each have a good chance to be the first see checkered on Sunday.

BetOnline has odds on the winner. Click the link immediately and put all your savings on Chase Elliott!


Okay, come back. I’m kidding.

He isn’t a bad bet at all this week, though.

Let’s match up several drivers’ chances to win with their odds and see if the value if worth the squeeze.

Odds to Win Consumer Energy 400

  • Kevin Harvick: +275
  • Kyle Busch: +325
  • Martin Truex Jr: +325
  • Kyle Larson: +700
  • Brad Keselowski: +900
  • Chase Elliott +1000
  • Clint Bowyer: +1200
  • Joey Logano: +2000
  • Kurt Busch: +2500

I like all of these drivers listed this week, really.

I don’t love them all, though.

Harvick being the favorite tells me that the sportsbooks know something I don’t. He simply doesn’t win at this track. 1 in 35 races makes this track one of his worst courses.

He does have several 2nd place finishes at Michigan International, though, so you can’t count out the wily veteran.

Last week’s pit road penalty should have Kyle Busch’s competitive spirit fired back up if it ever slowed down. I don’t think it did, but he should be lasered in this week.

Busch hasn’t been his best at Michigan as he has but only one victory there in his career, and only five top 5 finishes in over 25 races.

It doesn’t appear that the value is present for either Busch or Harvick, but they are the favorites every single week for good reason. They each have the right car, the right team with loads of driving experience behind them to win any race.

Martin Truex Jr can’t even match Busch and Harvick’s one career victory a piece at Michigan International Speedway as he has gone winless in 25 starts.

It’s hard to argue for his value either. On paper, this week is really shaping up to look like it might produce a non-big 3 winner for the second straight week.

With that being said, the big 3 will probably finish 1st,2nd, and 3rd, respectively, on Sunday.

Please Note:
Getting into the drivers with more quantifiable value, Kyle Larson is (+700) and is the two-time defending champion at this race. In only 9 career starts at Michigan, Kyle has been able to put together 5 top ten performances including 3 victories.

With a 7-1 payout and his 33% winning percentage, you can’t leave Larson outside of your money spread.

Brad Keselowski is 4th among active drivers in average finishing position at Michigan International. Even though he has yet to record a victory at this track, Brad has 9 top ten finishes in 18 starts.

I would put only a few bucks on Keselowski because he isn’t the highest driver on the value list.

Clint Bowyer is the only driver with a victory at Michigan in 2018 as he took the checkered flag back in June. With 2 victories this year, we know he is a clutch driver with a car that can hang with the best.

He has solid value at (+1200), so throw him in there in your picks to win spread.

That brings me back to Chase Elliott. Not only is he coming off the biggest win of his career, his first, but he kicks butt at Michigan.

He has finished inside the top ten in all 5 of his starts at the track and with 3 of those inside the top five. In fact, his average finish is 4.6.

His dad loved Michigan International and vise versa. It appears we can say the same for Chase.

I love the value here and I love that Chase now has “Mo” firmly at his back now, “Mo” being momentum.

In Conclusion

Last week was huge for Chase and I expect many many more stellar performances on Sundays from the genetic freak.

The big 3 drivers Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex Jr are yet again the top 3 betting favorites for this week’s Monster Energy Cup Series race.

There is something different about this week, though. The race is being held at Michigan International Speedway, a track that has only welcomed these three guys a combined 2 times in nearly 100 starts between them.

They are the favorites for a reason, so ignoring them can only be defined as foolish. I would put a few bucks on Busch and Harvick but there are several other drivers whose odds carry much higher value.

One of those drivers is Kyle Larson. The two-time defending Consumer Energy 400 winner has great odds at (+700).

If you bet just 20 bucks on him, you can win 140.00!

Larson along with Chase Elliot are the two names that jump off the screen at me. This is true not only statistically but the confidence and momentum of each driver should be peaking for this week’s race in Michigan.

Enjoy the race this week team and good luck!

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