NCAA College Football Week 13 Best Underdog Bets

NCAA College Football Week 13 Best Underdog Bets

It’s Rivalry Week in college football, one of my favorite weeks on the schedule as this is essentially a playoff game for a lot of teams, and they’re up against a rival. The College Football Playoff picture was shaken up with the Oregon Ducks losing in Salt Lake City against the Utah Utes.

The Ducks were suspiciously underdogs in that game despite being a top-4 team against No. 23. If you’ve been around sports betting long enough, you probably knew what was going to happen next. Fortunately, I got in and that was on my bigger players of the year.

It doesn’t count as an upset win, but to the public that’s an upset when No. 3 falls to No. 23. Utah were the favorites at -3 on Saturday night. If you want a true upset, then the Missouri Tigers beating the Florida Gators was a big win in overtime, 24-23.

The Tigers closed as 9.5-point underdogs, but didn’t need the points. They won by a point in overtime to send Dan Mullen looking for a real estate agent. Mullen was on a hot seat and the loss against a bad Mizzou team pushed the athletic director to make the call in getting rid of him.

Rivalry upsets are always the most fun of the bunch, so hopefully we see some underdogs get it done straight up in Week 13. Head below for our best underdog bets for Week 13 of the college football schedule.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines

Date and Time: November 27, 12:00 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetUS:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Ohio State Buckeyes -8 (-110) OFF Over 64 (-105)
Michigan Wolverines +8 (-110) OFF Under 64 (-110)

The Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines meet for The Game in Ann Arbor on Saturday afternoon. Ohio State is coming off a beatdown against the Michigan State Spartans for a 56-7 win this past weekend.

C.J. Stroud passed for 432 yards and 6 touchdowns in the winning attempt. Master Teague gained 95 yards on 4.5 yards per carry and a touchdown. Michigan State had no answer for the Buckeyes through the air and ground.

After Ohio State got up by three touchdowns in the 1st quarter, Michigan State had nothing left to give. The Spartans were down by a score of 49-0 at halftime, with a stern message sent to the Wolverines.

The Buckeyes were slow early in the season, which included a 35-28 loss at home against the Oregon Ducks. However, they’ve won nine straight and looked at their best versus Michigan State in their latest outing.

No quarterback has really impressed me this season. Stroud was struggling early in the season, but he’s the Heisman favorite with 36 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. The freshman has room to get better, though could win by a lack of competition.

Michigan is coming off a 59-18 win over the Maryland Terrapins for their third in a row. Prior to that win, they had a 29-7 win over Indiana and 21-17 over Penn State.

They slipped up against Michigan State, 37-32, on what many people would call bad calls. Nevertheless, they are going to need to play much better football on Saturday to beat the Buckeyes.

The Wolverines are in the top-10 defensively with 306.2 points and 16.3 points allowed per game. A tall task awaits against Stroud and the top ranked offense with 559.8 yards and 47.2 points per game.

Isn’t Jim Harbaugh tired of getting embarrassed in these big games? The public will ride Ohio State overwhelmingly in this spot, but if the oddsmakers were expecting a blowout, I thought this line would be 10 or 13.5.

Expect Aidan Hutchinson to force Stroud to think quickly, which he didn’t have to do against Michigan State. He had all day. Credit the offensive line, but they will face more pressure with an NFL selection in Hutchinson on the edge.

Michigan is physical and needs a couple of big defensive plays to turn this one in their direction. It’s possible. Stroud is still young and inexperienced in big games. He didn’t handle the pressure against Oregon.

The Spartans were blown out by Ohio State, while Michigan lost to Michigan State and the Buckeyes are only laying 8 points?

Vegas knows what they are doing, just like they knew what they were doing suckering you into betting Oregon.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Trends:

Ohio State

  • 6-2 ATS in their previous eight games
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games versus a team with a winning record
  • 14-3 ATS in their previous 17 games after scoring less than 20 points
  • 5-2-1 ATS in their previous eight games on the road
  • OVER is 5-2-1 in their previous eight games on the road

Michigan

  • 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games
  • 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games versus the Big Ten
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games at the Big House
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games after covering the spread
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games as an underdog
Ohio State vs. Michigan Pick
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES +8

Oregon State Beavers vs. Oregon Ducks

Date and Time: November 27, 3:30 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Oregon State +7.5 (-105) +220 Over 60.5 (-105)
Oregon Ducks -7.5 (-115) -260 Under 60.5 (-115)

The Oregon State Beavers and Oregon Ducks meet at Autzen Stadium for the 2021 edition of the Civil War. Oregon is coming off an “upset” with a 38-7 loss against Utah in Salt Lake City last week. They just had to win out and accept their ticket to the College Football Playoff.

The Ducks are out of the College Football Playoff with their second loss this season. They are down to No. 11 in the country. Utah clinched a spot in the Pac-12 Championship with the win. Oregon could get their revenge in the conference championship, but they still have to clinch.

Oregon has to beat Oregon State and they’re in against Utah in a rematch. If the Beavers win, then they can clinch with a Washington State loss. There’s a lot that must be decided, but Oregon can make it easy for everyone with a win.

They were figured out pretty easily by Utah. When their run game is stopped, then the Ducks aren’t going anywhere. Anthony Brown can’t sit in the pocket and win games for Oregon. He passed for 231 yards and a touchdown against the Utes.

Overall this year, Brown has passed for 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 62.8% completions. They can run the ball with 211.6 yards per game for 21st in the country. However the same can be said for Oregon State, who have an underrated attack on the ground.

The Beavers are running the ball well with B.J. Baylor going crazy. The 23-year-old has 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns on 6.1 yards per carry. As a team, Oregon State has 231.7 yards per game for sixth in the FBS.

Their offense has been scoring at a pretty good clip of 33.1 points a game, and their defense has stepped up well when needed. They held a good Arizona State team to 10 points in a 24-10 upset last week.

This is another play where the public will back Oregon. We don’t have to look at the numbers to know that. Square money will be all over Ohio State and Oregon this week. In the case of Oregon State, no one has really watched this team play, though, and I think they’re better than expected.

I at least believe we’re going to see a hard effort from Oregon State. Oregon may still be looking behind at Utah following that loss. It took them out of the College Football Playoff discussion, and it might have taken motivation out of their step. I know Oregon State will get up for this game.

Oregon State Beavers vs. Oregon Ducks Betting Trends:

Oregon State

  • 10-1 ATS in their previous 11 games as underdogs on the road
  • 6-0 ATS in their previous six games versus a team with a winning record
  • 10-3 ATS in their previous 13 games as an underdog
  • 7-2 ATS in their previous nine games after a win
  • 7-3 ATS in their previous ten games

Oregon

  • 2-9 ATS in their previous 11 games as a favorite
  • 1-6 ATS in their previous seven games as a favorite at home
  • 4-9 ATS in their previous 13 games after a loss by more than 20 points
  • 0-4 ATS in their previous four games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards
  • 8-3 ATS in their previous 11 games versus a team with a winning record
Oregon State vs. Oregon Pick
OREGON STATE BEAVERS +7

Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs

Date and Time: November 27, 4:00 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Tulsa Golden Hurricane +7 (-117) +200 Over 62 (-110)
SMU Mustangs -7 (-103) -240 Under 62 (-110)

It was a tough weekend for the SMU Mustangs. They were being counted on by the College Football Committee.

The committee does not like Cincinnati, and a loss against SMU would have sent them dropping fast down the rankings.

However, Cincinnati put together one of their best performances of the season with a 48-14 win. Oregon lost so the CFP committee will have no other choice but to put the undefeated Bearcats in the top-4.

Michigan beating Ohio State and going on to win the Big Ten Championship would make things really interesting if Cincinnati wins out. There will be some controversy if that was the case.

How will SMU respond after losing like that? It almost feels like that was their season. That was a big chance to show that they belong, but fell to 8-3 on the season.

Tanner Mordecai has a big arm, but it works best against bad defenses. In his biggest test of the season, the Bearcats held Mordecai to 66 yards on 15 of 26 passing.
SMU has nothing to play for in this game. Maybe they can improve their bowl stock somewhat, but it’s not going to be something they’re going to be excited for either way.

I just don’t see motivation for the Mustangs being of too much assistance on Saturday. On the other hand, Tulsa is playing for a bowl game.

They go into Saturday with a record of 5-6 and it’s been a disappointing season for the most part. More was expected from the Golden Hurricane, but they’ve played hard, including a 28-20 competitive loss against Cincinnati three games back.

Earlier in the season, they played a good Oklahoma State team on the road tough in a 28-23 loss, and also a 41-20 loss versus the Buckeyes in Columbus.

In their most recent outing, the Temple Owns beat Tulsa by a score of 44-10 in an impressive display. If Tulsa is motivated then they should have some pep in their step at SMU.

After getting popped by Cincinnati, SMU likely doesn’t have much reason to play in this one. I like Tulsa to turn this into a tight battle to the wire.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. SMU Mustangs Betting Trends:

Tulsa

  • 7-1 ATS in their previous eight games an underdog
  • 24-8 ATS in their previous 32 games versus a team with a winning record
  • 11-4 ATS in their previous 15 games versus the AAC
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games versus SMU
  • 5-2 overall in their previous seven games versus SMU

SMU

  • 2-4 ATS in their previous six games
  • 7-3 overall in their previous ten games
  • 3-6 ATS in their previous nine games versus the AAC
  • UNDER is 9-3 in their previous 12 games versus Tulsa
Tulsa vs. SMU Pick
TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE +7
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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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