Last week was one for the underdogs. Five teams won as straight up underdogs and eight beat the spread. Needless to say, the teams Vegas was hating on fought back and either made things very interesting or burned bettors.
Going into week five, I thought I saw a lot of nice value. Instead, I was woefully off the mark. Then again, looking back, I doubt I was the only one that felt good about the Broncos and Packers, considering the spots they were in.
Did I get ambitious thinking the Jaguars could keep it within three points (or even win) against the Chiefs? Apparently so.
I couldn’t even get a win out of my four picks from last week, either. I loved the value with the Texans (+105) to win by four points. Of course, they took Dallas to overtime and won by three.
That’s just how the NFL goes sometimes.
Vegas calls these games absurdly tight and they don’t lose very often. I still think it’s worth it to hunt for that betting value, however, so I’m back to the grind heading into week six as I try to add to a shaky 4-9 record:
**All Odds are provided by Sportsbetting.ag
Chicago Bears (-3, -117) vs. Miami Dolphins (+3, -103)
A week after home teams did pretty well against the opposition, I can’t help but gravitate to a slew of road underdogs that seemingly offer amazing value.
Chicago isn’t one of them, though. The Bears are actually the understandable favorites, as they’re riding a three-game winning streak and should be fresh following their bye week.
Betting on the Bears at -160 isn’t maximizing value. I prefer to take them by three points here and lock down a nice -117 price tag.
Indianapolis Colts (+120) vs. New York Jets (-140)
Back to that “road underdogs” discussion. Indianapolis is hanging by a thread thanks to an ugly 1-4 start, but I can’t help but pull for a Colts team that has been really competitive for much of the year.
Indy did get housed by the Pats, but they’ve otherwise been a lot better than their record. Andrew Luck will be facing a Jets defense that has been inconsistent to this point, while turnover-prone rookie passer Sam Darnold will be on the other side.
In what should be a close game, I naturally trust Luck more than Darnold. Indy gives you way more value and they need to get to 2-4 or their season is already lost. I think they can make that happen.
Los Angeles Rams (-7, +100) vs. Denver Broncos (+7, -120)
The Rams will be road favorites when they head into Denver this week. It’s not easy to play in Colorado and the Rams have come close to losing in each of the last two weeks. While true, I’m not really excited about riding with the Broncos these days.
Denver looked promising during a nice 2-0 start, but a three-game losing streak since then suggests that was a mirage. Case Keenum has unraveled since then and Denver’s once proud defense has too often looked either pedestrian or just (gulp) bad.
L.A. has bigger fish try fry and road games in Denver are tough, so I can see them getting tripped up. This is the NFL in the year 2018 after all.
Still, the Rams are stacked on both sides of the field and are a much better team than the Broncos. You won’t get anywhere betting hard on their -300 moneyline, but a +101 price for them to win by a score is tough to beat.
Green Bay Packers (-9.5, -110) vs. San Francisco 49ers (+9.5, -110)
I’m not here to tell you the Niners will beat the Packers in Lambeau. It isn’t impossible given the lackluster type of football Green Bay has played so far this year, but it’s not probable.
San Francisco could beat this spread, though, as Green Bay’s defense has been less than elite and the Packers aren’t usually known for blowing teams away. They did beat the Bills 22-0 a couple of weeks ago, however, so I think there’s enough to argue over on both sides to make me stay away from the spread.
Based on system alone, the 49ers should contribute and even in a blowout, I think these two can combine for over 50 points. Even with their struggles, Green Bay has managed to score 22+ points in four of five games this year.
That will happen again in week six and the Niners just have to show up and tack on a couple of touchdowns.
The point of this weekly column is to simply show you that there is always better (potential) value if you consider pivoting off of a bet. That doesn’t always mean you need to forget about one wager, just that you may want to think about altering your approach.
That’s how I feel when I see elite betting value and there is a ton of it going into week six.
It’s actually pretty shocking how much value there is for the road teams, as I could go on and on about the Chargers (-110), Steelers (+110), Panthers (+100) and Jaguars (-3, +100).
There is a lot of value to look at this week and the aforementioned four picks are a great place to start. Hopefully my insight helps you in some way and you enjoy a successful week six NFL betting slate.
Whatever you do, I wish you luck. Happy betting and enjoy the games!