NFL Week 12 Best Underdog Bets

NFL Week 12 Best Underdog Bets

Upsets and underdogs covering big spreads has been a normal occurrence in the NFL this season. Squares have to be getting crushed in the NFL this season. If you like parity in your football, then you have to like what you’re seeing in 2021.

Any team can lose any game. You might say well what about the Detroit Lions? They haven’t even won a game. If you just blindly tailed the Lions ATS every game and nothing else this year, you’d be up this season.

The Lions are fighters despite not winning a game. They could have very easily beaten the Ravens this year. In the most recent edition of upset city in the NFL, the Tennessee Titans were taken down by the Houston Texans in a straight up win for the Texans as 10-point underdogs on the road.

It wasn’t the biggest upset of the year, but the Indianapolis Colts dismantling the Bills in Orchard Park was impressive. They won as 7-point underdogs, clearing easily for a 41-15 win on the road. I don’t think anyone would have been shocked with an Indianapolis win, but 41-15?

There are going to be more upsets in Week 12. We just have to find them. We have a three-game card for Thanksgiving to get the week started. Head below for our best NFL Week 12 underdog bets.

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions

Date and Time: November 25, 12:30 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Chicago Bears -3 (-116) -165 Over 41 (-115)
Detroit Lions +3 (-104) +145 Under 41 (-105)

The Detroit Lions welcome the Chicago Bears to Ford Field for their annual Thanksgiving Day game. Thanksgiving football started in 1934 with the ownership of the Lions, in their year in Detroit, coming up with the idea of a gimmick to play football on Thanksgiving.

At the time, it was seen as a gimmick, but is just as normal now as Sunday football. The Lions had a very good team in the 1950’s, but haven’t played very many meaningful Thanksgiving Day games since then.

It’s always meaningful to the City of Detroit to host this game, but when it comes to playing for the playoffs, too many years they’re looking ahead to the draft already. This is another one of those years, where the Lions are set up well to win.

Wouldn’t it be fitting for the Lions to get their first win this season on Thanksgiving? They go into Thursday with a record of 0-9-1, a tie against the Pittsburgh Steelers is their best moment this season.

The Lions had a chance in overtime with a field goal, but Ryan Santoso missed and then lost his job. They’ve been on the wrong side of long field goals this season, including a record-breaking Justin Tucker field goal at the end of regulation.

They’ve been trying at least, and that’s all you can ask from this roster that is void of much talent. Jared Goff is scheduled to miss another week, while Tim Boyle makes his second NFL start after making his debut last week.

Boyle was abysmal with 77 yards and 2 interceptions. This is a tough assignment versus a good Chicago defense, but with that first start out of the way, Boyle should at least feel more comfortable.

The Lions’ defense has been playing hard despite the poor numbers. They allowed 16 points through 4 quarters and overtime against the Steelers, and then contained Baker Mayfield for 13 points a week ago.

Andy Dalton will get the start with Justin Fields ruled OUT. Fields has attempted to make the best out of a bad situation behind this offensive line. Fields can move, while Dalton can’t get away from pressure as well.

The Bears are 31st in the NFL with 287.9 yards and 29th with 16.3 points per game. Dalton probably won’t make matters better on Thursday.

In a winnable game for the Lions on Thanksgiving, they should be able to keep another outing close. They may not be winning, but they’re covering games this season. The Lions are playing for Dan Campbell, while the Bears look done with Matt Nagy.

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Betting Trends:

Bears

  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games
  • 1-6 ATS in their previous seven games versus the NFC
  • 3-8 ATS in their previous 11 games versus the NFC North
  • 7-16 ATS in their previous 23 games after a loss
  • 5-11 ATS in their previous 16 games as a favorite

Lions

  • 4-2 ATS in their previous six games
  • 4-0 ATS in their previous four games after scoring less than 15 points
  • 0-8 overall in their previous eight games at Ford Field
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games after gaining less than 250 yards
  • 5-12-1 ATS in their previous 18 games in October
Bears vs. Lions Pick
DETROIT LIONS +3

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Date and Time: November 28, 1:00 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 (-115) +175 Over 45 (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 (-105) -205 Under 45 (-110)

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals meet in an important battle in the AFC North on Sunday afternoon. This one carries playoff implications in the AFC.

A win or loss this week could make the difference at the end of the regular season. The AFC North is competitive with all four teams above .500. The last-place Cleveland Browns are at 6-5 behind the 5-4-1 Steelers and 6-4 Bengals.

The Ravens maintain leading credentials with a record of 7-3. It’s anyone’s at this point with no one really playing like they way it badly. The Browns are getting booed off the field, but are still within reach of the division title.

Pittsburgh isn’t playing a AFC North winner, but they’re still within shouting distance as well. They are coming off an entertaining 41-37 loss versus the LA Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Maybe not entertaining for Steelers’ fans.

It was their first loss since a 27-17 loss against the Green Bay Packers on October 3. They were coming off a tie against the Detroit Lions, 16-16, and then their first loss in a while this past week.

The Bengals are back in the good graces of the public after they beat up on the Raiders in Las Vegas for a 32-13. I thought the game was a lot closer than the final score indicated, though. The Raiders weakened late in the 4th quarter, and the Bengals poured it on.

Also keep in mind that the Bengals were coming off a bye week after a disastrous performance versus the Browns in a 41-16 loss. They were going to play better, it couldn’t have gotten worse. In a divisional showdown against the Steelers, this should be a physical game.

The Steelers’ defense looked in disarray last week, but I’m confident in them bouncing back well versus a divisional foe. They’ve been fairly reliable with 22.6 points allowed per game.

The public is backing off the Steelers after a loss in LA, and love the Bengals again following their win in Las Vegas. This is the NFL. Handicapping games based on last week isn’t a gold metric. I have to take the points in a close one in Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Trends:

Steelers

  • 7-0-1 ATS in their previous eight games after scoring more than 30 points
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games on the road
  • 19-7-1 ATS in their previous 27 games as an underdog on the road
  • 3-7 ATS in their previous ten games after a loss
  • UNDER is 42-14-1 in their previous 57 games on the road

Bengals

  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games after covering the spread
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games in Cincinnati
  • 1-5 ATS in their previous six games after a win
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games after scoring more than 30 points
  • OVER is 5-1-1 in their previous seven games as a favorite in Cincinnati
Steelers vs. Bengals Pick
PITTSBURGH STEELERS +4.5

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

Date and Time: November 28, 4:05 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
LA Chargers -3 (-102) -152 Over 47 (-115)
Denver Broncos +3 (-118) +132 Under 47 (-105)

The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off a fun win at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers at home in primetime. Justin Herbert outlasted Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers with a 41-37 win.

Herbert has passed for 22 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and 66.2% completions. He’s coming off a big performance with 382 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception against the Steelers.

The Chargers have to quickly forget about that win and focus on the Denver Broncos. This just looks like it could be a classic letdown spot for the Chargers if they aren’t prepared.

Their defense has been nothing to get excited about against the run. Denver could run the ball down their throat and win the possession game in this one.

The Chargers are 17th in the league with 355 yards allowed per game. They have been getting shredded on the ground.

Going into Week 12, the Chargers have allowed 145.1 yards per game on the ground for dead last in the NFL. They are near the back of the league in points against as well, with 26.5 points allowed per game.

The Broncos might be able to keep the Chargers off balance with Teddy Bridgewater and Javonte Williams. Bridgewater can run and should keep the Chargers’ defense on their toes.

Williams has been solid with 514 yards and a touchdown on 5 yards per carry. If the Broncos aren’t dumb, they stick with Williams and play keep away from the Chargers’ offense.

They are coming off a bye week following an ugly outing against the Eagles in a 30-13 loss. Expect the Broncos to respond with a better effort and give the Chargers a surprising run for the win at Mile High on Sunday.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Betting Trends:

Chargers

  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games after allowing more than 30 points
  • 1-9 ATS in their previous ten games in November
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games as a favorite on the road
  • 5-0 ATS in their previous five games versus the AFC West

Broncos

  • 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games
  • 11-5 ATS in their previous six games after failing to cover the spread
  • 9-1 ATS in their previous ten games after scoring less than 15 points
  • 7-1 overall in their previous eight games versus the Chargers at Mile High Stadium
Chargers vs. Broncos Pick
DENVER BRONCOS +3
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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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