NFL Week Twelve – Betting Power Rankings for 2019

San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers Logos - NFL Ball on a Football Field Background

After an insane week of upsets in week ten, the NFL returned to normalcy in week eleven. The good teams won, the bad teams lost, and the Cleveland Browns embarrassed themselves. Let’s jump right into this week’s NFL betting power ranking!

Remember to check TheSportsGeek AI predictions for NFL week 12.

Money Line Power Ranking

This first section is for those teams that always seem to win games but might not always find ways to cover numbers. Need a money line winner? Check here.

San Francisco 49ers Logo

1. San Francisco 49ers

  • Money Line Record: (9-1)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 1

After losing their first game of the year last week, the San Francisco 49ers got right back to their winning ways this week with a much closer than the scoreboard might tell you 36-26 win over the Arizona Cardinals. I mentioned in last week’s rankings that I hated the number against Arizona as the Cardinals nearly upset them two weeks ago, and I expected another close game and that the price wasn’t right for a play.

And while the final score looks like a blowout, the Niners were down 16-0 early in this one and trailed in this game with thirty seconds left on the clock. A late defensive score makes it look like a bigger win than it was, but this was a very competitive game. But wins are wins in the NFL, and the 49ers continue to pace the NFC with a 9-1 record.

San Francisco finds themselves in another tough spot next week as they are -165 home field favorites against the Green Bay Packers who are coming off of a bye and are tied for the second-best record in the NFC at 8-2. That one feels like a coin flip type of game to me, and I certainly don’t like laying -165 on a coin flip. You can find more value elsewhere.

Baltimore Ravens Logo

2. Baltimore Ravens

  • Money Line Record: (8-2)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 2

Most people, myself included, expected a thrilling game between the Ravens and the Texans this week. Two of the best young quarterbacks in the league, both playing on first-place teams, it seemed to be a recipe for excitement. Instead, we got more of the Lamar Jackson show, as the Ravens obliterated the Texans, 41-7.

Jackson cemented his place as the leader for the NFL MVP award as he had nearly another hundred yards rushing and passed for four scores. Jackson’s historic play has overshadowed the fact that this defense is allowing under twenty points a game this year. And they have played high scoring teams like the Chiefs, Seahawks, Patriots and now the Texans.

Lamar gets all the highlights, but it is the defense that makes the Ravens my pick to win the AFC Championship. The Ravens are -115 road favorites next week in Los Angeles, against the Rams, and it is hard not to like them at that price.

New England Patriots Logo

3. New England Patriots

  • Money Line Record: (9-1)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 3

I expected the New England Patriots to struggle in Philadelphia against a better than their record shows Eagles team, and they did just that. The Pats fell down 10-0 in the second quarter, and it took a gutty performance to secure the 17-10 win.

We talked above about the Ravens defense being very good, but it is the Patriots that lead the NFL in points against, at a borderline absurd ten points a game. Now, we all know that the Patriots started out the season playing a very weak schedule, so the defense isn’t quite as good as their stats have been this year, but holding the Eagles to ten points on the road was huge. The Patriots are -290 home favorites next week against the Dallas Cowboys, and that line is way overvalued and the Pats need to be on upset alert against a Cowboys team that has won three out of their last four games.

Seattle Seahawks Logo

4. Seattle Seahawks

  • Money Line Record: (8-2)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 4

The Seahawks took the week off this week and are well-rested as they head to Philly to play the Eagles. The Hawks are somewhat shockingly getting dog money next week at -103. There aren’t going to be many times that you get to back an 8-2 team that has won six out of their last seven games, getting dog money, against a team without a winning record. It will be a hard-fought game, but backing Seattle is the play here.

Green Bay Packers Logo

5. Green Bay Packers

  • Money Line Record: (8-2)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 5

The Packers also enjoyed a bye this week and should be rested and prepared for their huge showdown with the 49ers in primetime on Sunday Night Football. We already talked about this game being a coin flip, and the play is either to lay off and sit back and enjoy what should be a very entertaining game or to take the high variance, but long-term profitable play, of backing Green Bay.

Against the Spread Power Ranking

The against the spread rankings is everyone’s favorite as you get to see what teams are cashing tickets each week!

Arizona Cardinals Logo

1. Arizona Cardinals

  • ATS Record: (7-3-1)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 1

Depending on what number you got, this was either an easy winner or an absolute tragedy. The Arizona Cardinals nearly upset the San Francisco 49ers and led with under a minute left to play in the game. If I told you that I would give you a three-point lead with 31-seconds left on the clock, and ten points, you would think it was a stone-cold lock.

That was the case Sunday for Arizona, and after a late touchdown pass from Jimmy G, his fourth of the game, and a costly fumble from Larry Fitzgerald that was returned for a score with two seconds left on the clock, the Cardinals lost 36-26. I got the number early in the week at Arizona +11-points and mentioned it was my favorite play of the week. But, many of you got the final line of Arizona +10 and got a push on what should have been a sure winner.

In the official record books, it goes down as a painful push. But I will keep the Cards at number one as they continue to be a really good team against the spread this season. The Cardinals straight up record this year? A dismal 3-7-1. Against the spread? They are 7-3-1. Arizona takes a bye next week before hosting the LA Rams, presumably as home dogs.

New England Patriots Logo

2. New England Patriots

  • ATS Record: (7-3)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 4

It wasn’t easy, but the New England Patriots won and covered this week in Philadelphia. The defense completely shut down Carson Wentz, and the Eagles attack, and Belichick pulled out the old trick playbook on a Julian Edelman touchdown pass in the third quarter that proved to be the difference. Wins aren’t always going to be sexy in the NFL, but this one still counts. The Pats are laying an overpriced -6.5-points next week against the Cowboys. And I will be snatching up those points for sure in what should be a competitive game.

Green Bay Packers Logo

3. Green Bay Packers

  • ATS Record: (7-3)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 3

The Pack hold steady here at number three despite not playing a game this week. The main reason I leave them ranked so high? I l love them next week, getting +3-points against the 49ers. I think they have a very real shot at knocking off the Niners, and I won’t pass up on taking the three points.

Los Angeles Rams Logo

4. Los Angeles Rams

  • ATS Record: (6-3)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 5

Sliding up one spot this week, are the Los Angeles Rams. I’ll be honest, I have no idea if this team is any good or not. But what I do know is that the books don’t know either, and that has led to a very nice run against the number for LA. The Rams move to 7-3 against the spread this week, with a 17-10 win over the Chicago Bears.

The Ram finally figured out that if they play good defense and control the clock by hammering the ball with Todd Gurley, they can beat decent teams. Gurley had a season-high twenty-eight touches and gained 133 all-purpose yards. When they needed to put the game away late, they fed the ball to Gurley on three straight plays, and he picked up the game-sealing first down.

That is so much of a better strategy than trying to turn Jared Goff into Aaron Rodgers and having him throw the ball fifty times a game. Goff had just eighteen pass attempts, and if the Rams continue this style of play, I think they could find a way to backdoor into the playoffs. The Rams are rare home-field underdogs this week against the Ravens, getting +3-points. Normally home underdogs are my jam, but I can’t imagine wanting to fade the Ravens right now.

New Orleans Saints Logo

5. New Orleans Saints

  • ATS Record: (7-3)
  • Last Weeks Rank: Not Ranked

We haven’t talked much about Michael Thomas this season, and we should be. Thomas has 1,141 receiving yards this season. No other receiver in the game has even a thousand, and only Mike Evans has more than 800. His 94 cadges are 19 more than the second-place guy, Deandre Hopkins. Thomas is quietly having what could be the greatest season ever for a wideout. He is on pace to smash the all-time NFL records for catches and yards. And remember, he did most of this with a backup quarterback.

Lamar Jackson is going to run away with the NFL MVP award this year, and rightfully so. But Thomas deserves at least a look for what he has done for the Saints. This week the Saints blew out the hapless Tampa Bay Bucs, and Thomas led the team with eight catches for 114 yards. The Saints host the Panthers next week and are laying -9.5-points. Three weeks ago, I would have laughed at that number, but Carolina seems to be giving up on the year, and they just got blown out by a last-place Atlanta Falcons team 29-3. You can pencil in the Saints for another cover next week.

Game Total Power Ranking

We all love betting the over each week. In this final section, you will find team that are consistently cashing tickets by going over the total!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Logo

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Over Record: (8-2)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 2

If you want a sure-fire winner on the over, just take Tampa Bay blind every week! They have been going over nearly every week, and they use a combination of awful defense, they allow a league-high 31-points a game, and a gunslinging offense that throws the ball nearly every play. This week, they got blasted for 34-points by the New Orleans Saints, and Jameis Winston threw the ball fifty-one times compared to just six running plays.

The result? A game that went over despite almost zero fourth-quarter scoring as both teams were content with just running the clock out in a blowout. The number is a big one again next week at 51-points against the all of the sudden surging Atlanta Falcons. Expect the one to coast to the over with ease.

Dallas Cowboys Logo

2. Dallas Cowboys

  • Over Record: (7-3)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 3

The Dallas Cowboys slide up one spot this week with another high scoring affair, this time a 35-27 shootout with the Detroit Lions. Zeke touched the ball nineteen times and scored twice, and Dak threw for 444 yards and three scores. This Dallas offense is running on all cylinders right now as they have scored thirty-five or more points in three out of their last four games.

We have discussed the Patriots defense a lot in this article, and they have been great, so the 45-point number next week might be tough for Dallas to cover. But we have seen that when New England plays a team that can actually score points, most notably the Ravens who dropped thirty-seven on them two weeks ago, they aren’t invincible.

Arizona Cardinals Logo

3. Arizona Cardinals

  • Over Record: (7-4)
  • Last Weeks Rank: Not Ranked

Making their debut in the totals ranking this week are the Arizona Cardinals at number three. The Cardinals started the season out up and down on the totals but have now gone over the last three weeks, scoring at least fifty-three points in each of those games. Kyler Murray has seven touchdowns to just one interception during that span, and his QB rating is over 100. The Cards take a week off next week and then play the Rams in week thirteen.

Detroit Lions Logo

4. Detroit Lions

  • Over Record: (7-3)
  • Last Weeks Rank: Not Ranked

I pulled the Lions from the totals rankings last week because I wasn’t sure what to expect with Matt Stafford off the field. Stafford has broken bones in his back, and with the Lions out of contention they see no reason to rush him back to the field. Backup Jeff Driskel did a serviceable job in relief as he threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns and added in 51 rushing yards and a score on the ground.

The total is one of the lowest on the board next week in Washington, and the Redskins continue to look lost on offense with rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins running the show. While the Skins can’t score, the Lions can, and they could end up pushing that one over on their own.

Kansas City Chiefs Logo

5. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Over Record: (7-4)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 2

The Chiefs continue their slow slide down the rankings as they looked ugly of offense again this week against the Chargers. The offensive juggernaut has been slowed with Patrick Mahomes missing action, and now that he is back on the field, he just doesn’t look the same. The nearly unplayable turf at Estadio Azteca played its part, as did the sky-high elevation in Mexico City, but the fact of the matter is that Mahomes is clearly not healthy, and the Chiefs are rushing him back too soon.

The Chiefs get a badly needed bye next week, and I leave them in the top five hoping that they can use this time off to heal up and get back to the team we saw early in the year that scored anytime they wanted to.

Wrap Up

And here they are folks, my betting power rankings for week twelve! This coming week has several blockbuster games that should be a lot of fun to watch. The Cowboys at Patriots, Colts at Texans, Seahawks at Eagles, Ravens at Rams, and the Packers at 49ers games all have major playoff implications. Make sure you consult my betting power rankings each week before laying down your hard-earned money! Thanks for reading, and good luck betting the NFL in week twelve!

Jason Gray / author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL