NFL Week 14 Best Underdog Bets

NFL Week 14 Best Underdog Bets

NFL Week 14 opens on Thursday night in Minnesota with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. That game may not look like much, but it’s a big game for both teams. If the Steelers and Vikings want to go to the playoffs, this should be a game they want to win.

The upset of the week in Week 13 was the Detroit Lions beating the Vikings by a score of 29-27. There were no double-digit underdog winners, but the Lions finally got their first win of the season at home as 7-point underdogs.

According to the odds, the next biggest upset was the Steelers over the Baltimore Ravens. It was a hard-fought and physical rivalry game, with the contest ending on a failed 2-point conversion. John Harbaugh didn’t have any healthy defensive backs left, so he went for 2 instead of playing for overtime.

The Atlanta Falcons made things interesting for a half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but faded away in the second-half. And with that, there weren’t going to be any shocking upsets. The Chargers, Washington, Seahawks, and Patriots all won as underdogs, but they were all around a field goal or less.

We have more upset picks for the NFL Week 14 slate. Head below for our best underdog bets for Week 14.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Football Team

Date and Time: December 12, 1:00 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetUS:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Dallas Cowboys -4 (-105) -190 Over 48 (-110)
Washington Football Team +4 (-115) +165 Under 48 (-110)

The Dallas Cowboys head to Washington for an important meeting in the NFC East. Don’t look now, but Washington has won four straight games and could pull within a game of the Cowboys on Sunday.

The Cowboys are in control of the division with a record of 8-4, while Washington is erasing a slow start and a .500 team going into Week 14. In their recent win, Washington had a good win in Las Vegas, as they played their game to edge out the Raiders, 17-15.

It was just how Ron Rivera drew the game up, as Washington didn’t commit too many mistakes and won the possession battle to set up a game-winning field goal. They beat the Seahawks a week earlier without a kicker for the most of the night.

Washington isn’t doing anything exotic to win games. Rivera likes to put a chokehold on their opponent and limit their opportunities. If they can do that again against the Cowboys, Washington could squeak out another win this week. Whatever happened during their bye week was for the better.

After a week off, Washington returned to beat the Buccaneers in an upset 29-19. They haven’t lost since then, with both sides of the ball stepping up. There’s Taylor Heinicke, but the real catalyst has been the improvement in defense.

Dallas is coming off a 27-17 win against the New Orleans Saints. If the Saints had a competent quarterback under center, they probably win that game. Taysom Hill threw the game away and made some bad decisions in his first start in 2021. The Cowboys will see a more disciplined Heinicke in this one.

With Washington continuing to show improvement, it’s hard to lay 4 points on the Cowboys. I’d go with the hot home underdog in this NFC East rivalry game.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Football Team Betting Trends:

Cowboys

  • 6-13-2 ATS in their previous 21 games in Week 14
  • 6-2 ATS in their previous eight games as a favorite
  • 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games after a win
  • 16-7 ATS in their previous 23 games versus the NFC East
  • UNDER is 5-1 in their previous six games

Washington

  • 4-0 ATS in their previous four games
  • 4-0 ATS in their previous four games as an underdog
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games versus a team with a winning record
  • 8-2 ATS in their previous ten games after a win
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games in December
Cowboys vs. Washington Pick
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL +4

New Orleans Saints vs. New York Jets

Date and Time: December 12, 1:00 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
New Orleans Saints -5 (-110) -225 Over 43 (-108)
NY Jets +5 (-110) +195 Under 43 (-112)

The New Orleans Saints and New York Jets meet at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The Saints are on a five-game losing streak and in danger of a sixth against the Jets.

The Jameis Winston injury really threw the Saints off this season. They were playing well early in the season, which included a win over the Green Bay Packers to open the season, 38-3. The Packers are a Super Bowl contender, and the Saints embarrassed them.

First it was Winston, and then it was Alvin Kamara for the Saints. Kamara is still hampered by an injury and may be unavailable again this week. Rushing Kamara back to play the Jets probably isn’t the best idea. In any event, the Saints are still in the wildcard mix at 5-7.

The way I see it, the Saints are done and probably won’t be able to overcome the pile of injuries. It isn’t just Winston and Kamara bothered by injuries, they’re also without No. 1 wide receiver Michael Thomas and a bevy of injuries to their offensive line.

There aren’t many teams in the NFL that can overcome injuries to their No. 1 quarterback, running back, and wide receiver and still have success.

Also not being able to play this week is receiver Deone Harris after a DUI arrest in the summer, three-game suspension, and Cameron Jordan is on the Covid list.

The Jets aren’t good, but we’ve seen them pull off an upset before against teams that didn’t take them seriously on the road. They beat the Titans, 27-24, and Bengals, 34-31. Both those teams were in better shape than the Saints as well.

I think the point spread in this one suggests that oddsmakers believe that the Saints could be ripe for an upset here as well. The Saints under a touchdown is likely going to be a big public play.

I’m not falling for it, though, and with the injuries for the Saints, these teams are closer in talent than you’d think. In their current form, I’m not interested in laying points on the road on the Saints.

New Orleans Saints vs. New York Jets Betting Trends:

Saints

  • 1-5 ATS in their previous six games
  • 0-4 ATS in their previous four games versus a team with a losing record
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games
  • 17-8 ATS in their previous 25 games as a favorite on the road
  • UNDER is 5-2 in their previous seven games as a favorite on the road

Jets

  • 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games in December
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games as an underdog
  • 8-20 ATS in their previous 28 games versus a team with a losing record
  • OVER is 7-2 in their previous nine games
Saints vs. Jets Pick
NEW YORK JETS +5

Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date and Time: December 12, 4:25 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Buffalo Bills +3.5 (-116) +151 Over 52.5 (-105)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (-104) -171 Under 52.5 (-115)

The Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers featured in an upset special blog? Weird times we’re in when the Bills are an underdog pick. The Bills head to Tampa as 3 to 3.5-point underdogs following a 14-10 loss in blustery conditions.

Mac Jones passed the ball a total of three times with two completions to beat the Bills in Orchard Park. Tough loss for the Bills, and it doesn’t get any easier for them. They’re off to Florida to meet with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Week 14.

The Bills could win the AFC, a wildcard, or miss out on the playoffs. They’re in a fragile position at the moment and could go up or down. A big response against the Buccaneers would put them right back in contention. They are going to Tampa with a record of 7-5 behind the 9-4 Patriots.

In good weather this week, expect Josh Allen to get the passing game going versus a beatable Buccaneers’ secondary. Allen did what he could in the wind, but it was too tough to get their vertical game going. It’s likely going to work in this one.

The Buccaneers are 20th with 248.4 passing yards allowed per game. Allen is going to get the Bills moving. Despite that lackluster effort on Monday night, this offense is still one of the best in the NFL with 28 points scored per game.

The Bucs have looked ordinary the last two weeks. They needed the Colts to shoot themselves in the foot two games back, and then won on a late Leonard Fournette touchdown with second left for a 38-31 win. Carson Wentz passed for more than 300 yards on the Tampa secondary.

Yeah, the Bucs beat the Falcons by 13 points, but they had to work for that one. Atlanta made it interesting for most of the game at least. Matt Ryan was only 3 yards short of passing for 300 yards. I’m convinced that Allen can chew up the Tampa defense in a big bounce back game.

In the game of the week in Week 14, I’m going to have to go with the Bills after that mess on Monday Night Football. Everyone is counting them out, and I don’t think they’re done. If you can get 3 points and a hook, then you’re in a good spot at Raymond James Stadium.

Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends:

Bills

  • 4-0-1 ATS in their previous five games after a loss
  • 5-0-1 ATS in their previous six games after failing to cover the spread
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games as an underdog
  • 8-2-2 ATS in their previous 12 games as an underdog on the road
  • 8-3 ATS in their previous 11 games on the road

Buccaneers

  • 4-0 ATS in their previous four games at Raymond James Stadium
  • 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games versus a winning team
  • 3-10-2 ATS in their previous 14 games in Week 14
  • OVER is 11-4 in their previous 15 games as a favorite at Raymond James Stadium
Bills vs. Buccaneers Pick
BUFFALO BILLS +3.5
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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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