NFL Week 15 Best Underdog Bets

NFL Week 15 Best Underdog Bets

Week 15 opens on Thursday night with the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. After a wild one between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings, this looks like another good matchup to get the week started.

There are only four more weeks left in the regular season, with no more bye weeks. Week 14 was the final week for bye weeks, so we have a fully loaded schedule in the last four weeks of the year. For the first time, the season will conclude with a Week 18.

The biggest upset in Week 14 was the Atlanta Falcons over the Carolina Panthers as 2.5-point road dogs, 29-21. The only other underdog to win straight up was the San Francisco 49ers, closed as 1.5-point underdogs in Cincinnati.

In other words, it wasn’t a week for upsets. Those don’t exactly constitute an upset. The Chicago Bears made it an interesting game last night at Lambeau Field, but the Packers came from behind and won by more than two touchdowns. It was at least closer than the final score of 45-30 suggested.

With a full card, there is bound to be some upsets in the NFL. Head below for our best underdog bets for NFL Week 15.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

Date and Time: December 19, 1:00 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Dallas Cowboys +10.5 (-110) -500 Over 45.5 (-110)
New York Giants +10.5 (-110) +360 Under 45.5 (-110)

The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants meet in Week 15 at MetLife Stadium in an NFC East tilt. This game may not mean much for the Giants, but it’s always a big deal against a rival in the division.

The Cowboys are playing for a lot over the next four weeks, as they head into this one with a record of 9-4 and the lead in the NFC East. They hold a tidy advantage over the 6-7 Eagles and Washington.

Dallas is the only team in the division above .500. If you recall how much of a mess this division was last year, at least the Cowboys are playing well.

They are coming off a 27-20 win against Washington in a game that looked like an easy Cowboys’ win through three quarters. Washington made things interesting with a late bid in the final minutes.

The Giants are back on the east coast after a 37-21 loss out west against the Chargers. Mike Glennon did what he could with 191 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. It didn’t matter because Justin Herbert wasn’t missing any throws.

They’ve lost back-to-back games after a 13-7 win over the Eagles at home. They couldn’t hold on in a 20-9 loss in Miami, and then a tough trip out west. Back home at home with a rival at MetLife Stadium, there should be some motivation.

They’ve played hard in spots this season. The Giants beat the Raiders on November 7, 23-16, a week after playing the Chiefs tough in a 20-17 loss. Their attempt versus the Eagles was rewarded with a win as well.

The Cowboys have had the far superior team the last two meetings at MetLife Stadium. However, the Giants held strong in a 23-19 win last year, and then a 37-34 loss two years back.

In a game that likely peaks the interest of the Giants, they should be able to put something on at home versus the Cowboys. They tend to compete against the NFC East, as their 6-1 ATS in the division. That looks like a lot of points to lay on Dallas.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Betting Trends:

Cowboys

  • 10-3 ATS in their previous 13 games
  • 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games on the road
  • 6-2 ATS in their previous eight games after a win
  • 1-2 ATS in their previous three games versus the Giants
  • UNDER is 6-1 in their previous seven games

Giants

  • 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games versus the NFC East
  • 11-4 ATS in their previous 15 games after failing to cover the spread
  • 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games in Week 15
  • 2-1 ATS in their previous three games versus the Cowboys
  • UNDER is 8-1 in their previous nine games as an underdog at MetLife Stadium
Cowboys vs. Giants Pick
NEW YORK GIANTS +10.5

Washington Football Team vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Date and Time: December 19, 1:00 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Washington Football Team +5 (-110) +185 Over 44 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles -5 (-110) -215 Under 44 (-110)

The Washington Football Team at least didn’t give up last week. They got behind 18-0 in the 1st quarter and 24-0 going into halftime. Instead of packing the game up and going home, Washington fought back to cut it close late in the 4th quarter.

Washington forced a Dak Prescott turnover to draw within a touchdown on the Cowboys. With Taylor Heinicke banged up and out of the game, Washington had to depend on Kyle Allen to complete the comeback. That wasn’t happening, but credit Washington trying.

They have another divisional matchup in Week 15. They are in Philadelphia for a showdown with the Eagles. Heincke is scheduled to start this week, so that’s a big plus for Washington. With Heinicke you know that he’s going to give a complete effort.

The Eagles are coming off a bye after running away from the New York Jets two weeks back. The Jets are a miss and it was a good bounce back spot for the Eagles. They were coming off a 13-7 loss against the Giants.

Like Washington, the Eagles are at 6-7 and in a wide open and crazy wildcard race. There’s a bunch of teams in the same mediocre spot looking to get into the playoffs. A loss here and Washongton or the Eagles could be done.

Despite the loss last week, Washington has been playing much better football than earlier in the season. The loss in Week 14 was their first since October 31 against the Denver Broncos, 17-10. They were coming off a couple of big wins to beat the Raiders and Seahawks, 17-15.

Washington is best against the run, so they should match up well against the Eagles. They are fifth in the NFL with 93.6 yards allowed against the run per game. Philadelphia does not like spraying the ball around with Jalen Hurts. Minshew is expected back on the bench this week.

They like to run the ball with Hurts and their running backs. The Eagles lead the NFL with 160 rushing yards per game. However, asking them to win with Hurts’ arm isn’t the best plan for success.

Philadelphia is 30th in the NFL with 196.2 passing yards per game. Washington can be beat through the air, but the Eagles don’t have the horses to do it particularly well. This one should be close and very possibly decided by a field goal.

Washington Football Team vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Trends:

Washington

  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games as an underdog
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games
  • 8-3 ATS in their previous 12 games in Week 15
  • 17-8 ATS in their previous 25 games as a favorite on the road
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games after generating less than 250 yards

Eagles

  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games as a favorite
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games versus the NFC East
  • 3-10 ATS in their previous 13 games after covering the spread
  • 3-7 ATS in their previous ten games after a bye week
  • 0-4 ATS in their previous four games after scoring more than 30 points
Washington vs. Eagles Pick
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL +5

Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers

Date and Time: December 19, 4:05 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Atlanta Falcons +9 (-110) +310 Over 46 (-115)
San Francisco 49ers -9 (-110) -450 Under 46 (-105)

The San Francisco 49ers return home after a monster win in Cincinnati against the Bengals, 26-23. It was a wild overtime game to send the 49ers over the Bengals on the road.

The win was important for the 49ers, as they advanced to 7-6 on the season. They are one of several teams in the midst of a tight playoff battle.

The 49ers will have to follow up on that win and make it their fifth win in their last six attempts. This run started on a 31-10 win over the Rams on November 15.

They were 30-23 two games back in a winnable game against the Seahawks, but responded in good form instead of regressing. Jimmy Garoppolo put together a solid performance with 296 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Fans are holding their breath that Garoppolo doesn’t run into a hole. He’s been inconsistent in his career, and this isn’t the time for him to go cold. Jimmy G threw 2 critical interceptions against the Seahawks the week before.

In his last three attempts, he’s passed for 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. It would be like him to struggle against an opponent like the Falcons after looking so good on the road in Cincinnati.

I worry that this could be a letdown for the 49ers. Atlanta is coming off a 29-21 win in an upset over the Panthers on the road. It was a solid performance with Matt Ryan passing for 190 yards and 1 touchdown.

The Falcons are a much better team with Cordarrelle Patterson on the field. He believe it or not is the focal point of the offense. Patterson ran for 58 yards and a touchdown on 3.6 yards per carry.

I give the Falcons credit for showing up after a decent attempt versus the Bucs in a 30-17 loss a week earlier. They’re playing decent enough football at 6-7, and it sounds crazy, but still in the playoff race.

Don’t expect the Falcons to head to San Francisco looking to lose on Sunday. They have the 49ers right where they want them. The 49ers are coming off a hard-fought overtime battle on the road, and may not treat the Falcons with the most respect.

This is a case of too many points on the favorite. I’d look at the Falcons close to double-digit underdogs in San Francisco at Levi’s Field, a place where the Niners are just 2-4 this season.

Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Trends:

Falcons

  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games on the road
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games in December
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games in Week 15
  • 3-7 ATS in their previous ten games versus the NFC
  • UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five games

49ers

  • 2-8 overall in their previous ten games at Levi’s Stadium
  • 4-10 ATS in their previous 14 games at Levi’s Stadium
  • 3-8 ATS in their previous 11 games versus the NFC South
  • 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games versus a team with a losing record
Falcons vs. 49ers Pick
ATLANTA FALCONS +9
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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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