NFL Week Sixteen – Betting Power Rankings for 2019

Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers Logos - NFL Ball on a Football Field Background

With the playoffs just around the corner, the action is really starting to heat up! The Cowboys and the Eagles are locked in a tight competition to find out which team will get the honor of being the worst playoff team in history. The Seahawks and the 49ers keep swapping spots between the one seed and the five seed in the NFC. The Patriots got caught cheating again. And the Browns are still garbage. With that, let’s jump right into the week sixteen NFL power rankings and good luck betting on NFL week 16.

Money Line Power Ranking

Need an outright winner? Check here. The money line power rankings are for teams that might not always cover the spread, but manage to win a bunch of games.

Baltimore Ravens Logo

1. Baltimore Ravens

  • Money Line Record: (12-2)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 1

The year of Lamar Jackson continued this week as the Ravens quarterback continued his assault on the record book. Jackson is now the only player in NFL history to rush for over 1,000 yards and throw for over 30 touchdowns in a season. When you can do something that no player ever has done, you are doing something really special.

This week, the Ravens toyed with the New York Jets and blew them out by 21-points. All Jackson did was throw for five TD passes and rush for 86-yards. This was the Ravens tenth win in a row, and if they win next week, they will have locked up the number one overall seed in the AFC.

The Ravens are laying -500 next week in Cleveland against the dysfunctional Browns. It is hard to imagine anyone beating the Ravens right now. And it is equally hard to imagine the Browns ever actually playing well but laying -500 on the road against a decent team is a shockingly high number. I don’t have enough confidence in Cleveland to back them, and I just can’t lay that much wood on the road, so I will likely lay off next week.

Green Bay Packers Logo

2. Green Bay Packers

  • Money Line Record: (11-3)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 3

Everyone wants to talk about the Seahawks, 49ers, and Saints in the NFC, but the Green Bay Packers are very quietly the number two seed in the conference right now. This week they took care of business against the Bears 21-13. And while it was a bit of a lackluster performance, it was great to see Davante Adams finally looking healthy again.

After being banged up for weeks, Adams saw thirteen targets and caught seven balls for 103 yards and a score. Keeping him healthy is huge for the Packers as they are painfully undermanned at receiver.

The NFC North Division comes down to next week as Packers travel to Minnesota to play the Vikings with the division on the line. If the Packers win, they will have locked up the division title, with a path to the number one overall seed in the NFC. If they lose, they drop all the way to the six seed. Yeah, it’s a big one. The Pack offer a very attractive +200, and at that price, they are worth a play.

Seattle Seahawks Logo

3. Seattle Seahawks

  • Money Line Record: (10-3)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 4

No team had a better week than the Seattle Seahawks did in week fifteen. And not just because they picked up a big road win over the Carolina Panthers. But because they got to take advantage of the 49er’s ugly home loss to the 4-9 Atlanta Falcons to take over first place in the NFC West, and the number one seed in the NFC playoffs.

The final score might make it look like the Hawks struggled in Carolina, but they really didn’t. Seattle had a 30-10 lead with less than five minutes left in the game. The Panthers scored two late touchdowns to tighten up the score, but the game was never really in doubt. The Seahawks are laying -425 at home next week against the Arizona Cardinals. Assuming Seattle doesn’t get distracted looking ahead to their week seventeen showdown with the 49ers, that game shouldn’t be overly competitive.

San Francisco 49ers Logo

4. San Francisco 49ers

  • Money Line Record: (11-3)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 4

It is hard to qualify just how bad of a loss this was for the 49ers this week. Not only did they lose to an awful Atlanta Falcons team, the loss cost them first place in their division, and the number one seed in the NFC. One week after looking like the favorites to win the NFC, they were humbled at home by a team with nothing to play for.

The Niners host the LA Rams next week as -275 favorites. The Rams are basically eliminated from playoff contention, so San Francisco should be able to take the game with little trouble, but with the way this San Francisco defense has been playing lately, you just never know.

New Orleans Saints Logo

5. New Orleans Saints

  • Money Line Record: (11-3)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 5

After losing a thriller to the 49ers last week, the Saints took care of business this week with a dominating performance against the Indianapolis Colts. Drew Brees etched his name into the all-time record books again as he passed Peyton Manning for the most passing TDs in NFL history.

More importantly, for New Orleans, they kept pace with the rest of the top of the NFC with the win. There are four teams in the NFC at 11-3, and two of them are going to get byes, and the other two are going to have to play wild-card weekend.

The Saints have a tougher than it might seem game on the road against the Tennessee Titans next week. The Saints are -143 favorites, and New Orleans needs to be on upset alert. Tennessee looks like a new team with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and they are in a must-win scenario as they are currently tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the final playoff spot in the AFC. You hate to have to play a team that is desperate for a win on their home field.

Against the Spread Power Ranking

The against the spread power ranking is everyone’s favorite as you get to see which teams are covering numbers and cashing tickets!

Buffalo Bills Logo

1. Buffalo Bills

  • ATS Record: (9-4-1)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 1

I left the Bills at number one last week despite coming off of an ATS loss the prior week for one reason. I felt that they were an absolute lock to cover against Pittsburgh this week. And what did they do? Not only did they cover, they won the game outright as underdogs, 17-10. Just about nobody is giving this team any credit right now, and all they do is play hard and win games.

They have won four of their last five games, with the one loss coming to the seemingly unbeatable Baltimore Ravens. This team has already locked up a playoff spot, and they are just one game back of New England for the division title. The Bills continue to get zero respect as they are getting +6.5-points next week in Foxboro. It is really, really hard to beat Belichick and Brady in Foxboro in December, but if you think Buffalo won’t compete, you are crazy.

Green Bay Packers Logo

2. Green Bay Packers

  • ATS Record: (9-5)
  • Last Weeks Rank: Not Ranked

The Packers slide back into the top five this week, as they covered against the Chicago Bears. Aaron Jones continues to be a touchdown scoring machine as he scored two more times this week to bring his season total to fourteen rushing touchdowns. That is tied with Christian McCaffrey for the most in the NFL.

The Packers offer my favorite play on the board next week in Minnesota as they are getting +5.5-points against the Vikings. We have seen this scenario play out too many times, not to like the Packers getting a bunch of points. Cousins will throw a costly interception late, Rodgers will lead his team down the field with just seconds left in the game and make an impossible pass to give Green Bay the win. Been there done that, give me the Pack and the points.

San Francisco 49ers Logo

3. San Francisco 49ers

  • ATS Record: (8-5-1)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 3

We have spent a lot of time talking about how bad the 49ers blew it against the Falcons this week. But they still remain one of the best ATS teams in the league, so I am going to leave them up here at number three. And I feel that they do offer some nice value next week against the Rams, laying -6.5-points.

While the Rams technically aren’t eliminated from the playoffs, they would need a miracle at this point. And after seeing them get obliterated by a very flawed Dallas Cowboys team last week, I wouldn’t expect a big effort out of LA. San Francisco got embarrassed at home, expect them to take it out on the Rams and cover that number.

Arizona Cardinals Logo

4. Arizona Cardinals

  • ATS Record: (8-5-1)
  • Last Weeks Rank: Not Ranked

The Cardinals spent much of the first half of the year ranked as my top team in the ATS rankings. They struggled the last couple of weeks and dropped out, but they shoot back into the top five this week with a dominating performance against the Cleveland Browns. Kenyan Drake continues to look like an absolute steal since the Cards brought him in from the Dolphins in a trade earlier this year.

Drake is still young as he is in just his fourth full season and exploded for 137-yards and four, count ‘em, four, rushing touchdowns. In six games with the Cardinals, Drake has rushed for 417 yards and five touchdowns. He has quickly made people forget about David Johnson, and pairs well with rookie Kyler Murray as the future of the team. Arizona is getting +9.5 next week in Seattle.

Kansas City Chiefs Logo

5. Kansas City Chiefs

  • ATS Record: (9-5)
  • Last Weeks Rank: Not Ranked

Don’t look now, but the Kansas City Chiefs are finally getting healthy and hot at the right time. The Chiefs have now won and covered in four straight games. Patrick Mahomes is starting to look like himself again after clearly playing hurt for much of the season.

The Ravens are swallowing up all of the media attention right now, and deservedly so, but if the Chiefs hit the playoffs fully healthy and playing well, they are going to be a tough out. The Chiefs play in Chicago next week, and it is sure to be bitter cold, so you can expect the offense to be a bit subdued as they have been in the cold the last two weeks.

KC is laying -5.5-points against the Bears, and the only thing that scares me about that cover is the cold. The Bears are out of the playoff mix, but it is their final home game of the year, and they are a very proud franchise, so I don’t see them mailing it in.

Game Total Power Ranking

In his final section, you will find teams that are consistently going over the total. Great offense? Bad defense? As long as it goes over, it doesn’t matter!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Logo

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Over Record: (11-3)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 1

The free money machine that is the Tampa Bay Bucs continued printing cash this week. People were worried that Jameis Winston would struggle with his broken thumb, but it turns out he might be better with a broken hand! Winston threw for 458 yards and four touchdowns in the 38-17 slobber knocker. Winston continues to chase history as he has a chance to be the first player ever to lead the NFL in passing yards, touchdowns, and interceptions.

The Bucs have a total in the forties this week, which is rare. They play at home against the Texans with a total of just 49.5. The Texan’s defense is strong, but I see this being a shootout between two of the best young quarterbacks in the league. Give me that over!

Carolina Panthers Logo

2. Carolina Panthers

  • Over Record: (10-4)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 2

Sadly, the Panthers are highly ranked on this list for their bad defense, not for their offense, powered by Christian McCaffery, who is having one of the greatest seasons in NFL history. The Panthers have now allowed at least twenty-nine points in five straight games and they are wasting McCaffrey’s prime on a bad team.

Next week the Panthers play the Colts in a meaningless game for both teams. The total is only 46 points, but I’ll be honest, I don’t love it. The Colts have scored seventeen points or less in three out of their last four games. The Panthers defense is pretty bad, but are they bad enough to get blown out by Jacoby Brissett?

Detroit Lions Logo

3. Detroit Lions

  • Over Record: (9-5)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 3

The Lions went over again, and this time it was their defense that came through big time, giving up 38 points to the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Lions offense has looked anemic with David Blough under center, but that is keeping the numbers very manageable. This week the total is just 38-points against the Denver Broncos.

Dallas Cowboys Logo

4. Dallas Cowboys

  • Over Record: (9-5)
  • Last Weeks Rank: Not Ranked

It was really hard to predict the outcome of this week’s Dallas Cowboys game. Dallas had lost three straight games and their offense was averaging just sixteen points a game during that stretch. So, when they erupted for 44-points this week against the Rams, it was pretty unexpected.

Zeke and Pollard both rushed for over 100 yards, and all of the sudden, the Cowboys look like a playoff team again. Dallas plays for everything next week in Philly with the division title on the line, the total is 46-points.

Tennessee Titans Logo

5. Tennessee Titans

  • Over Record: (8-6)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 5

The Titans snapped their four-game winning streak this week, and just missed going over against the Houston Texans. The number is 50.5 next week at home against New Orleans. Drew Brees has the Saints offense clicking, and I expect a lot of points to hit the board. Assuming Derek Henry can get back on track, this one should sail over.

Wrap Up

And here they are folks, my betting power rankings for week sixteen! With so many teams in the playoff hunt late in the season, we have a bunch of exciting action on tap for next week. Good luck to all of you in your fantasy football finals in week sixteen, and make sure you check my betting power rankings before making your NFL bets!

Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL