NFL Week 2: Best Underdog Picks in the NFL

NFL Week 2: Best Underdog Picks in the NFL

Do you want more underdogs and upsets in Week 2? All three of our selections in Week 1 were underdogs and they came through for us. The Cleveland Browns were unable to win straight up, but they still covered the spread for us. That was a game that the Browns had on a platter and they passed the win up.

A series of miscues in the second-half sank their battleship. As a punter, you have one job. Catch the ball off the snap and then punt. Jamie Gillan didn’t complete the first step. Anyone with any football sense knew the Browns weren’t overcoming that miscue at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints were able to cash on the moneyline as underdogs. The Saints were the biggest shocker of the day. Not just for the win, but the way they were able to do it was impressive. New Orleans destroyed the Packers by a score of 38-3, with Jameis Winston outplaying Aaron Rodgers.

Winston threw for 148 yards with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions on 14 for 20 passing. Rodgers? Looked drunk with 133 yards with no touchdowns and 2 interceptions. I didn’t have the Saints winning like that, but was fortunate to have them at +3.5 on the spread. It was a no sweat win.

The doggies are going to be barking again in Week 2. The first key is to circle potential upsets that you see on the board. The biggest point spread in Week 2 is the Houston Texans against the Browns.

The Texans won at home last week against a rookie quarterback, but have a stingier test versus Cleveland. Letdown spot for the Browns after opening up against the Chiefs? Find my upset and underdog picks for Week 2 in the NFL below.

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers

Date and Time: September 19, 1:00 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetUS:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Saints -3.5 (-105) -190 Over 45 (-110)
Panthers +3.5 (-115) +165 Under 45 (-110)

The New Orleans Saints are coming off a massive win against the Green Bay Packers. I fortunately identified the Packers going into that one sluggish and unprepared. Is the same going to be said for the Carolina Panthers in Week 2? I don’t think the Saints are going to catch the Panthers asleep at the wheel on Sunday afternoon.

The Panthers were 19-14 winners over the New York Jets in Week 1. It’s only the Jets, but I liked the way the Panthers played to get the win. Their defense was dealing with a rookie quarterback against Zach Wilson, and didn’t allow him to shine in his NFL debut. What was most impressive is what the Panthers did on the ground versus the Jets’ offense. They held Tevin Coleman to 24 yards on 2.7 yards per carry.

To beat the Saints, it’s going to be imperative to take away Alvin Kamara. There is no other way around containing the Saints’ offense. Stack the box and then just bait Winston into completing passes. While Winston was smart and confident with the ball against the Packers, let’s not appoint him an MVP after just one game. He only passed for 148 yards and wasn’t asked to go crazy.

The tricky part is going to be following up with a similar performance, this time in a true road test. Sam Darnold handled things well for the Panthers, as he passed for 279 yards with 1 touchdown and no interceptions against the Jets. It’s debatable with Kamara vs Christian McCaffrey, but I think the best player on the field in this game is McCaffery.

I think he just needs to have another steady performance and not make a big mistake. This game is likely going to come down to which quarterback makes that big error. I was on the Saints last week, but they will likely be overbet after that effort. The better value is on the Panthers for a small upset.

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Trends:

Saints

  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games
  • 8-2 ATS in their previous ten games versus the NFC
  • 7-2 ATS in their previous nine games as the favorite
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games versus the
  • UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five games
  • UNDER is 7-1 in their previous eight games on the road

Panthers

  • 8-2 ATS in their previous ten games as an underdog
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous games versus the NFC
  • 3-10 overall in their previous ten games in Carolina
  • 4-2 ATS in their previous six games in September
Saints vs. Panthers Pick
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5

Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Date and Time: September 19, 1:00 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetUS:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Broncos -6 (-110) -225 Over 45.5 (-110)
Jaguars +6 (-110) +215 Under 45.5 (-110)

The Denver Broncos made it look easy with a 27-13 win over the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. They never allowed the Giants to get a critical touchdown to stay in the game.

Daniel Jones posted an alright statline, but the Giants required more out of him. Jones ended the contest with 267 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions.

They needed something to develop on the ground, but it didn’t happen. A lack of a running attack ended up being their downfall, as Jones was their leading rusher with 27 yards on 6 attempts and a touchdown.

The Broncos did a great job of containing Saquon Barkley, who was held to just 26 yards on 2.6 yards per carry. That was the difference in the game.

Trevor Lawrence made his debut against the Houston Texans in Texas in Week 1. He made rookie mistakes, but overall showed a good command of the offense.

At this point in a rookie’s career, if the arm and accuracy is there, then the decision making can usually be cleaned up. Lawrence passed for 332 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

Carlos Hyde was solid for the Jags, as he rushed for 44 yards on 4.9 yards per carry on 9 carries. I think the Jags had to give the ball to Hyde more. Lawrence shouldn’t have been in a position to make 51 attempts in his first NFL start.

Hyde was running well, but they didn’t let him eat. In any event, I like the Jaguars to keep this one close enough to cover in Lawrence’s first home start. I’m not a fan of back-to-back east coast games for the Broncos. That can be tough on a team.

Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Trends:

Broncos

  • 2-5 overall in their previous seven games
  • 3-6 overall in their previous nine games versus the Jaguars
  • 1-5 ATS in their previous six games versus the Jaguars
  • 1-5 overall in their previous six games versus the AFC
  • UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five games on the road
  • UNDER is 6-3 in their previous nine games

Jaguars

  • 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games in September
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games overall
  • 0-10 overall in their previous ten games
  • UNDER is 4-1 at home versus the Broncos
  • 4-10 ATS in their previous 14 games in Week 2
Broncos vs. Jaguars Pick
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +6

San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Date and Time: September 19, 1:00 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetUS:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
49ers -3 (-120) -170 Over 49.5 (-110)
Eagles +3 (+100) +150 Under 49.5 (-110)

This is another case of a west coast team travelling out east in consecutive weeks to open the season. The 49ers have a longer road trip ahead of them with a trip from the Bay Area all the way to the east coast in Philadelphia. They avoided a collapse at Detroit against the Lions last week.

With the Lions down 31-10 at halftime, they nearly completed a comeback for the ages in the 4th quarter. What a terrible way it would have been for the 49ers to open the season. They were up 38-17 heading into the final frame and just about allowed that lead to escape them. Ultimately, though, the 49ers held on for a 41-33 win.

Jimmy Garoppolo passed for 314 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. The first snap of the season was ugly, as a bad exchange under center ended up with the Lions after they missed a field goal. In typical Lions’ fashion, they couldn’t do anything with the turnover, though. The 49ers could be in for another close call if they’re going to play like that again.

In fact, I’m confident that the Eagles will win if the 49ers play like that again. Jalen Hurts impressed in Week 1 to lead the Eagles to a small upset over the Atlanta Falcons on the road.

Hurts threw for 264 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. Miles Sanders chipped in with 74 yards and 4.9 yards per carry. Rookie DeVonta Smith found the end zone in his first NFL game, which included 71 yards on 11.8 yards per carry.

I was maybe most impressed with the defense. When they needed a big stop to change the momentum of the game early, the Eagles came up big to stop Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Ryan was held to 164 yards with no touchdowns. They did a fine job containing Calvin Ridley for 5 receptions and 51 yards. I’m not saying that the Eagles are a better team than the 49ers, but back-to-back games out east should be tough, especially against a confident Eagles team after that performance in Atlanta.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Trends:

49ers

  • 3-7 ATS in their previous ten games
  • 1-8 ATS in their previous nine games versus the Eagles
  • 2-7 overall in their previous nine games versus the Eagles
  • 9-25-1 ATS in their previous 35 games as a favorite

Eagles

  • 5-0 ATS in their previous five games as an underdog
  • 4-0 ATS in their previous four games in Philadelphia
  • 11-5 ATS in their previous 16 games versus a team with a winning record on the road
  • UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five games after an ATS win
49ers vs. Eagles Pick
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +3
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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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