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NFL Week Five – Betting Power Rankings for 2019

NFL Team Logos Week 5 - NFL Ball - Football Field Background

As we pass the quarter mark of the regular season, we are starting to see which teams are for real, and which teams are frauds. The AFC has just three teams with a winning record at this point, with the Patriots and Chiefs looking like the clear front runners. And in the NFC, the field seems to be wide open with nearly a dozen teams that are still in the playoff hunt. With that said, let’s jump right into this week’s betting power rankings!

Please remember if you need any help betting on football, you can always check our NFL betting strategy guide.

Money Line Power Ranking

The money line rankings are where you will find teams that might not be covering spreads, but are winning games each week and cashing money line tickets.

New England Patriots Logo

1. New England Patriots

  • Money Line Record: (4-0)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 1

Well, the Patriots won the game, but that is about all they can say about their lackluster performance in Buffalo this weekend. Last week, I got several emails from angry readers saying that when I predicted that the Pats might be on upset alert and not cover, against Buffalo, that I was an idiot. When the Bills had multiple chances to win the game in the fourth quarter, despite losing their starting quarterback and having to rely on the rotting corpse of Matt Barkley, I didn’t look all that dumb anymore.

Tom Brady failed to throw a touchdown pass, and the Pats relied on their elite defense to survive the afternoon. The Pats are absurdly huge money line favorites next week in Washington against a dreadful Redskins team, laying -850. You should never lay that much wood, but don’t at all be shocked if Brady and company come out fast and blow the ‘Skins out of the water.

Kansas City Chiefs Logo

2. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Money Line Record: (4-0)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 3

The Kansas City Chiefs move up one spot this week and come in at number two in our money line power ranking. Similar to the Patriots at number one, the Chiefs really struggled this week and are happy to still be undefeated after a scare against the Detroit Lions. Patrick Mahomes had one of the worst days of his short NFL career as he failed to throw or rush for a score and the Chiefs trailed in this game with twenty seconds left in the fourth quarter.

But, in the end, the Chiefs won the game, and they have yet to lose a game this season. The Chiefs are -550 at home next week against a Colts team that likely isn’t as bad as most people seem to think. The Chiefs should be able to take care of business, but at that price, you should stay away from backing them.

Dallas Cowboys Logo

3. Dallas Cowboys

  • Money Line Record: (3-1)
  • Last Weeks Rank: a

After running their record to 3-0 last week, many questioned whether or not the Cowboys were really any good this year. Wins over the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins weren’t exactly premium wins, and fans wondered what they would look like against a legit playoff-caliber team. And sadly, for Cowboys fans, they didn’t look good at all once the competition stepped up a notch.

Dem Boys lost an ugly game to the New Orleans Saints 10-12 this week. And remember, Drew Brees wasn’t on the field for New Orleans, so this loss came at the hands of backup QB Teddy Bridgewater. The Cowboys had three costly turnovers and probably should have won the game but kept coughing the ball up when they would get a drive going.

The only reason I leave the Cowboys this high in the ranking is that when you look ahead to the next several weeks, the Cowboys get their tough games at home, as they host the Packers, Eagles, and Vikings, and their road games are winnable as they play the Jets and the Giants. As much as I hate to say it, don’t be shocked if the Cowboys find a way to win several more games in a row with their advantageous schedule.

Green Bay Packers Logo

4. Green Bay Packers

  • Money Line Record: (3-1)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 5

And speaking of those Packers, they come in here at number four this week. The Packers lost a back and forth game to the Philadelphia Eagles this week, for their first loss of the season. But Aaron Rodgers finally looked like himself as he threw for over four hundred yards and two scores. Green Bay sorely missed Davante Adamas late in the game as he came off the field with a toe injury after being unstoppable most of the game.

The game ended when Rodgers threw a pick from the three-yard line with under a minute left to play in the game, reminding a lot of fans about the Seattle Seahawks ill-fated interception in the end zone in the Super Bowl a couple of years back. The Packers are getting +163 next week in Dallas, and if they can find a way to win on the road as underdogs you can expect them to continue to move up the rankings.

San Francisco 49ers Logo

5. San Francisco 49ers

  • Money Line Record: (3-0)
  • Last Weeks Rank: Not Ranked

Rounding out the top five this week are the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners took this week off as they got an early bye, and at 3-0, they are the only undefeated team left in the NFC. The competition has been light for San Francisco so far this season, but in the NFL, wins are wins, and they need every one of them as the NFC West looks to be on of the best divisions in football right now with the top three teams a combined 9-2.

The 49ers are -195 home favorites next week as they host the first-place Cleveland Browns. The Browns have looked shaky to start the season but dominated the Ravens on the road this week, and the Niners need to be on upset alert at home in week five.

Against the Spread Power Ranking

If you don’t care which teams are winning games, but instead, are focused on the teams covering spreads and cashing tickets, this section is for you.

Jacksonville Jaguars Logo

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

  • ATS Record: (3-1)
  • Last Weeks Rank: Not Ranked

I am officially a Gardner Minshew fanboy. Minshew took his crew on the road and picked up a huge outright victory against the Denver Broncos. The Jags won the game on a Josh Lambo field goal as time expired and are now 3-1 ATS this year, having covered three in three straight games. Minshew is quickly developing a cult-like following, and he has these guys playing good football.

Leonard Fournette had 245 yards from scrimmage, and this team is a lot of fun to watch. The Jags are getting +3.5 next week in Carolina, and I think they are going to cover, and could win the game straight up. In Minshew, we trust.

Kansas City Chiefs Logo

2. Kansas City Chiefs

  • ATS Record: (3-1)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 5

The Chiefs didn’t play their best game this week and failed to cover against the Detroit Lions. But the fact that they could win the game against a Lions team that looks to be pretty good, on the road, when they clearly weren’t on top of their game, tells me this team is a little better than we thought.

Sure, when Mahomes throws for four hundred yards and four touchdowns, they win games and cover spreads, but the fact that they still managed to win with Mahomes struggling, shows me this is a more well-rounded team than first thought. The Chiefs will have another huge number to cover in week five, as they are laying -11 points against the Colts. That’s a lot of points and will scare me away from backing them, but the Chiefs have been really good at home with Mahomes running the show in the last two seasons, so they just might cover it.

Detroit Lions Logo

3. Detroit Lions

  • ATS Record: (3-1)
  • Last Weeks Rank: Not Ranked

Are the Detroit Lions good this year? I am not sure I can really answer that question just yet. But they are 3-1 against the number, so they come in here at number three in the ATS power ranking. The Lions could have easily won outright in week four against the Chiefs as they had the lead until twenty seconds left in the game.

And when you look at the full body of work, they have wins against the Chargers and Eagles, two teams that most expect to make the playoffs this season, and they have a tie against a Cardinals team that seems to be a lot better than their 0-3-1 record would suggest. The Lions get a bye next week and then head to Green Bay for a showdown with the Packers in week six.

New York Giants Logo

4. New York Giants

  • ATS Record: (2-2)
  • Last Weeks Rank: Not Ranked

It is hard to look much better than Daniel Jones has in his first two starts for the G-Men. In his first-ever NFL start he scored four times, including the game-winner in the fourth quarter, and this week, the Giants stomped all over their division rivals Washington Redskins, blowing them out 24-3.

While New York is just 2-2 ATS this season, those two losses were with Eli Manning at the helm. With Danny Dimes running the show they are 2-0 ATS and straight up. The Giants are getting +5.5 points at home next week against a shaky at best Minnesota Vikings team, and you need to snatch those points up and back the Giants at home.

Los Angeles Rams Logo

5. Los Angeles Rams

  • ATS Record: (3-1)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 5

Heading into week four, the Rams were undefeated, coming off of a trip to the Super Bowl last year, and looked to be one of, if not THE, top team in the NFC. But after getting blown out at home to the Tampa Bay Bucs, and giving up fifty-five points to Jameis Winston, we have to take another look at this team.

They started to get back to giving the ball to Todd Gurley, which is a good sign as the former NFL offensive player of the year has been MIA much of the season so far. But even then, this team had just twenty-eight yards on the ground, with most of Gurley’s touches coming through the air. I leave them in the top five this week as the public seems to be overreacting to one bad week, as the Rams are getting two points in Seattle next week against the Seahawks. Maybe they win, maybe they lose, but you can be assured I am taking those points.

Game Total Power Ranking

Which teams are scoring points and going over the total? You can find them here.

Kansas City Chiefs Logo

1. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Over Record: (3-1)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 1

If I would have told you that the Chiefs would score a combined sixty-four points and Patrick Mahomes wouldn’t have a touchdown, you wouldn’t have believed me. But that is just what happened this week for the Chiefs as they played the Detroit Lions. The Chiefs had the highest total on the board last week, and it coasted over by double-digits. KD has another insane total this week, fifty-seven points, but I don’t know how you can’t like the over every week with how this team is playing right now.

Baltimore Ravens Logo

2. Baltimore Ravens

  • Over Record: (3-1)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 3

The Baltimore Ravens move up a spot this week to number two after giving up forty points to the Cleveland Browns. The Ravens have yet to play a game with less than forty points being scored, and this week was no different as the total went way over. Lamar Jackson struggled in the first half but ended his day with 247 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 66 rushing yards. When that is your “bad” game, you are really good. The total next week is just forty-four points, as the Ravens play in Pittsburgh against the Steelers, and taking the over in that one is one of my favorite bets on the board next week.

New York Giants Logo

3. New York Giants

  • Over Record: (2-2)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 5

As I mentioned earlier, the New York Giants are just a different team with Daniel Jones running the offense. While they went under the total this week, it was mostly because the Washington Redskins are a dumpster can fire, not because the Giants defense was all that great. Next week the total is just forty-five points at home against the Minnesota Vikings. I see a lot of points hitting the board in that one.

Indianapolis Colts Logo

4. Indianapolis Colts

  • Over Record: (3-1)
  • Last Weeks Rank: 4

Coming in at number four for the second consecutive week are the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts went over for the third time in four weeks, and they have this rare combination of mediocre defense, better than most people think offense, and low expectations, that could make them a juggernaut against the over his season. The Colts get to give up fifty points to the Chiefs next week, so they should pick up another over in week five.

Philadelphia Eagles Logo

5. Philadelphia Eagles

  • Over Record: (3-1)
  • Last Weeks Rank: Not Ranked

The Eagles make their first appearance this season in the totals ranking, coming in here at number five this week. The Eagles have a very low number next week, at just 43.5 points against the New York Jets. The Jets offense has looked bad, but they are coming off of a bye, and they should be improved next week, making that number seem much too small. The Eagles are giving up over 26 points game this season, one of the highest totals in the league. Couple that with their explosive offense and you have a recipe for a lot of points going up on the board.

Wrap Up

And here they are folks, my betting power rankings for week five! I can’t remember the last time we had so much movement at the quarterback position in the NFL. Budding stars like Lamar Jackson, Gardner Minshew, and Daniel Jones lead the way, but other guys like Teddy Bridgewater, Matt Barkley, and Jacoby Brissett are being thrust into action as well. With so many new signal-callers playing, it can be very hard to know exactly what to expect week to week. That is why it is imperative you are consulting my rankings each week before making your bets. Be on the lookout for our individual game breakdowns later this week, and good luck betting on the NFL in week five!

Jason Gray / author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL

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