NFL Week 6: Best Underdog Bets In The NFL

NFL Week 6: Best Underdog Bets In The NFL

Week 6 opens on Thursday Night Football with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles. That’s not a bad way to spend a Thursday night. There have been far worse matchups featured in the Thursday night slot.

If you’re looking for an upset in this one, it’s going to require a near perfect performance from the Eagles. They do have homefield advantage on their side, but there is Tom Brady on the other side.

Brady is going off a masterful performance against the Miami Dolphins. He passed for over 400 yards and 5 touchdown passes. That doesn’t look like a position to be upset, but we’ll see what transpires in Philadelphia.

I’m going to search for two or three upsets on the Sunday slate in Week 6. The biggest underdog going into this week is the Houston Texans going into Indianapolis against the Colts.

At 10 points the Texans are the only double-digit underdog, though that could change as the Giants are currently at +9.5. There weren’t any big upsets worth mentioning last week, as the Chicago Bears winning as a 5.5-point dog in Las Vegas was the largest.

The Detroit Lions nearly pulled it off as a 10-point underdog. They were heartbroken again on a long field goal with no time remaining.

After a late touchdown with seconds remaining to take a 17-16 lead, the Vikings got into field position for a long kick. The Lions are getting close, but that doesn’t count in football.

Could this be the week, though? I have the Lions highlighted for an upset at Ford Field in Week 6. Head below for our free NFL Week 7 best underdog bets for October 17, 2021.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Detroit Lions

Date and Time: October 17, 1:00 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110) -180 Over 47.5 (-112)
Detroit Lions +3.5 (-108) +160 Under 47.5 (-108)

The Cincinnati Bengals travel to Detroit with optimism that quarterback Joe Burrows will be active on Sunday afternoon. Burrow needed a trip to the hospital after suffering a throat injury this past weekend.

Fortunately, it was only a throat contusion and nothing that could have been serious. Burrow has passed for 1,269 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions on 71.7% completions. He’s been incredibly accurate, but must limit the turnovers.

In his last four games, Burrow has thrown 6 interceptions to 7 touchdowns. His team is going into Detroit with a record of 3-2 for a one-game deficit behind the Baltimore Ravens.

The AFC North is a wide open division, with the Ravens vulnerable in the top spot. Despite their win on Monday night, they needed everything to go right in a comeback bid, including multiple missed field goals.

The Bengals are towards the back of the NFL with 333.8 yards and 22.8 points per game. The offense has been a bit of a disappointment for me. Too inconsistent in a year that I expected more from a team that has talent offensively.

After a brief scare in a bad preseason for Ja’Marr Chase, he’s exploded and is on pace to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Chase has been the one big bright spot for the Bengals this season. Not that Burrow has been bad, but he will be asked to elevate his game soon.

The Lions might be 0-4, but you have to like their competitive fight for being a team that hasn’t won a game. They’ve covered three of five games, so you’d be up by blindly backing the Lions thus far. Jared Goff has thrown for 1,303 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on 66.8% completions.

He’s been fine, just has a case of fumblitis when he’s pressured. The loss against the Bears, 24-14, could have gone differently without the turnovers. What I’ve most been encouraged by is the Lions’ defense. Dan Campbell has them playing with a lot of energy and fight.

The Lions are allowing a respectable 381.8 yards allowed per game. They’ve been respectable against the pass and run. Against a Bengals team on the road that may not have their quarterback at 100%, getting +3.5 points looks like a solid deal.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Detroit Lions Betting Trends:

Bengals

  • 5-0 ATS in their previous five games versus the Lions at Ford Field
  • 10-3 ATS in their previous 13 games after a loss
  • 7-3 ATS in their previous ten games as a favorite on the road
  • 2-17-1 overall in their previous 20 games on the road
  • UNDER is 4-1 in their previous six games
  • UNDER is 5-1 in their six games versus a team with a losing record

Lions

  • 4-2 ATS in their previous six games
  • 0-9 overall in their previous nine games
  • 2-6 ATS in their previous eight games versus the AFC North
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games as an underdog at Ford Field
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games at Ford Field
Bengals vs. Lions Pick
DETROIT LIONS +3.5

Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots

Date and Time: October 17, 4:25 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Dallas Cowboys -3.5 (-110) -181 Over 51 (-115)
New England Patriots +3.5 (-110) +161 Under 51 (-105)

The Dallas Cowboys are at Gillette Stadium in New England for a Week 6 matchup against the Patriots.

The Cowboys have people believing after a 4-1 start this season. They’re coming off a 44-20 win against NFC East rival New York Giants.

Dak Prescott came through with 302 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He has accumulated 1,368 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on 73.9% completions.

Prescott has also recorded 60 yards on 3.2 yards per carry. The rushing numbers aren’t as strong, but that’s by design.

The Cowboys don’t want him running around on a surgically repaired ankle. It’s also helped Prescott become a better and smarter pocket passer. He’s helped lead the Cowboys to 439.6 yards per game for second in the league.

There are many dynamic weapons for Dak in this offense. The running game has picked themselves up from last year and looks better with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.

They are going to see heavy money in this one. After struggling against the Texans last week, people are losing confidence in the Patriots. You have to keep in mind that the Pats were coming off the Brady game, and just inches away from winning that one.

The Patriots are going into Sunday with a record of 2-3. Their only wins have come against the Jets, 25-6, and Texans, 25-22. That’s not the best resume, but they’ve lost two games by 3 points combined.

Mac Jones has passed for 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 71.1% completions. He’s playing like a rookie with potential. The defense has helped him out with 317.6 yards allowed for fifth in the NFL.

Jones should feel comfortable versus a Dallas defense allowing 390.4 yards per game. If I have only advice for him it’s to keep the ball away from Trevor Diggs. What a season the product of Alabama is having with 6 interceptions across 5 games.

Back home and two weeks removed from Brady’s return to Gillette Stadium, the Pats should be in better form on Sunday. The Cowboys are the better team, though on this day look for this one to stay tight within a field goal.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots Betting Trends:

Cowboys

  • 5-0 ATS in their previous five games
  • 3-10 overall in their previous 13 games on the road
  • 2-6 ATS in their previous eight games versus the AFC
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games as a favorite on the road
  • 3-7 ATS in their previous ten games in October

Patriots

  • 10-2 ATS in their previous 12 games as an underdog at Gillette Stadium
  • 39-19-3 ATS in their previous 61 games as an underdog
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games versus the NFC East
  • 3-6 ATS in their previous nine games
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games in October
Cowboys vs. Patriots Pick
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +3.5
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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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