NFL Betting Power Rankings
It was another crazy week of NFL action in week sixteen! Somehow the Dolphins and the Bengals played the most exciting game of the week. The Seahawks lost to the Cardinals with a backup quarterback at home, and the Cowboys reminded everyone that they certainly are no longer Dem Boys.
The Raiders played a home game in Los Angeles, Danny Dimes led the Giants over the Redskins in the battle to not be the worst team in the worst division in football, and oh yeah, the Browns still suck. With that, let’s jump into this week’s NFL betting power rankings!
Money Line Power Ranking
The money line power rankings are where you are going to find teams that might not always cover, but they usually find a way to win outright and cash money line bets.
1. Baltimore Ravens Money Line Record (13-2) Last Weeks Rank: 1
The Baltimore Ravens locked up the number one overall seed in the AFC this week, with a 31-15 beatdown of their rivals, the Cleveland Browns. It seems the only way to end Lamar Jackson’s assault on the record books, is for Baltimore to lock up the one seed a week early, as they have decided to rest Jackson in week seventeen.
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 25, 2019
The Ravens are home dogs next week against the Pittsburgh Steelers getting +120. And I get it. Jackson is sitting out, and Mark Ingram is hurt and won’t play either. Throw in the fact that the Steelers are playing for their postseason lives, and I think the Steelers are deservedly favored. That being said, I just can’t bet against this Ravens defense right now against some form of either Mason Rudolph or Devlin Hodges. I’ll likely stay away from this one.
2. Green Bay Packers Money Line Record (12-3) Last Weeks Rank: 2
I mentioned last week that nobody was talking about the Green Bay Packers, and I just couldn’t figure out why. They were getting big dog money of +200, in Minnesota, against Kirk Cousins, who was 0-8 on Monday Night Football. It was my play of the week. Maybe now that the Packers dominated Minnesota and locked up the NFC North Division title, people will start giving them some respect?
The Packers are now the number two seed in the NFC, and with the Seahawks losing at home to the Cardinals, they could be the number one seed if Seattle holds off San Francisco in week seventeen, and they beat the hapless Detroit Lions.
The Packers are enormous favorites on the road against Detroit, and the books aren’t even taking money line action on it yet. Not that I would ever lay the absurd -500 or more price they are going to put on it when they do post a number, but the Packers aren’t going to blow it against Detroit.
3. San Francisco 49ers Money Line Record (12-3) Last Weeks Rank: 4
It took every second of the clock to get the job done, but the San Francisco 49ers took care of business at home this week against the Los Angeles Rams, winning 34-31 on a Robbie Gould field goal as time expired. It wasn’t overly pretty, but the win was a big one for SF as they are now in the driver’s seat in the NFC.
Much like the Seahawks took advantage of the 49er’s loss to the Atlanta Falcons, two weeks ago, the 49ers are now taking advantage of Seattle’s loss to Arizona. The two teams meet with the division title on the line in Seattle next week. If San Francisco wins, they will have the number one overall seed in the NFC. If they lose, they will drop to the five seed, with a road playoff game in the wild-card round.
The 49ers are somewhat surprisingly -180 road favorites against a Seahawks team that has lost all three of their best running backs in the last two weeks. The Hawks made the controversial move to bring in retired running back Marshawn Lynch from the couch to see if Beast Mode can save the day in Seattle. Can anyone say game of the year?
4. New Orleans Saints Money Line Record (12-3) Last Weeks Rank: 5
History was made several times in Tennessee this week as the Saints beat the Titans, 38-28. Not only did Drew Brees add three more passing touchdowns to his already NFL record total, Michael Thomas etched his name into the record books as he now has 145 catches on the season, an all-time NFL record, breaking Marvin Harrison’s previous record of 144. Thomas also passed Randy Moss for the most receiving yards in a player’s first four seasons.
The Saints are in a three-way tie atop the NFC at 12-3. But they are getting the worst of the tiebreakers at the moment, and they are currently the three seed. But if the Packers and the 49ers lose, the Saints could move into one of the top two slots, and earn a bye, assuming they can get past the Carolina Panthers on the road as -650 favorites.
5. New England Patriots Money Line Record (12-3) Last Weeks Rank: Not Ranked
Everyone’s favorite team to love to hate, did it again. The New England Patriots won their eleventh consecutive division title this week as they held off the Buffalo Bills, 24-17.
The Pats trailed heading into the fourth quarter but gutted it out and got the job done and will enter the playoffs as the two seed in the AFC if they can fade the Miami Dolphins as -1000 home field favorites next week. Assuming they take care of business against Miami, this will be the tenth consecutive trip to the playoffs where the Patriots got a first-round bye. Impressive.
— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2019
Against The Spread Power Ranking
Need a winner? Check here! The against the spread power rankings is where you are going to find teams that are covering numbers and cashing tickets week in and week out!
1. Green Bay Packers Saints ATS Record (10-5) Las Weeks Rank: 2
We already talked about how the Packers have been given zero respect by the media, and that bias has clearly impacted the betting public as well, as the Packers continue to be the beneficiary of coverable numbers. Green Bay covered for the tenth time this season against Minnesota and could end up with as high as the number one seed in the NFC with a win in Detroit next week.
It would appear that all of that Green Bay disrespect came crashing to a halt this week as Green Bay is laying -13 against the Lions. The Packers barely snuck past Detroit at home in their first meeting this year, needing a fourth-quarter rally and a game-winning field goal from Mason Crosby as time expired to win by a point. I know the Lions are playing for nothing at this point, but I’m not sure I can pass up on a home dog in a division game getting that many points.
2. Arizona Cardinals ATS Record (9-5-1) Las Weeks Rank: 4
We talked about how Kenyan Drake looked to be the future of the Arizona Cardinals backfield last week, and he proved it again this week as he helped lead his team to a huge upset win against the Seattle Seahawks. Coming off of a 146-yard four-touchdown game last week, many wondered what he would do for an encore. All he did was gain 184-yards from scrimmage and score two more TDs.
Arizona has now won outright as underdogs the last two weeks and will be getting +7.5 next week in LA, against the Rams. Assuming Kyler Murray plays, and he likely will, I am taking those points.
3. Kansas City Chiefs Saints ATS Record (10-5) Las Weeks Rank: 5
Nobody, and I mean nobody, wants to have to play this Kansas City Chiefs team right now. Not only is Patrick Mahomes healthy and the offense is clicking again, this defense has really stepped up their game as well.
The Chiefs have allowed just three points in each of the last two games, and going back to week eleven, KC is only allowing just over nine points a game. The Chiefs are laying eight against the Chargers next week at home, and it is hard not to like a team that scores nearly thirty points game and only allows single digits. Give me the KC, laying some wood.
What are these boys up to 😂 pic.twitter.com/hR0gCKLGp5
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 25, 2019
4. New Orleans Saints ATS Record (10-5) Las Weeks Rank: Not Ranked
When the New Orleans Saints lost to the Atlanta Falcons way back in week ten, it looked like this team just might not be as good as we thought they were. But since that game, this Saints offense has scored fewer than thirty-four points in a game just one time, and they have reeled off five wins in six games.
This week, the Saints pounded the Titans on the road, dropping thirty-eight points in the win, and easily covering the three-point spread. The Saints are favored by thirteen in Carolina next week. This game is very similar to the Packers game in that I am just not comfortable laying that much wood on the road in a division game. I can find more value elsewhere.
5. Los Angeles Rams Saints ATS Record (10-5) Las Weeks Rank: Not Ranked
While I don’t like the number on the Rams next week against the Cardinals, they do still have one of the best ATS records in the league this year at 10-5, and they did cover again this week against San Francisco.
While the Rams have been eliminated from playoff contention, they have covered in three out of their last four games. Do they blow this team up in the offseason, or keep the band together for one more run at a title?
Game Total Power Ranking
Everyone loves betting the over, so our final section ranks how often teams go over the total.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over Record (11-4) Last Weeks Rank: 1
When the Tampa Bay Bucs hit halftime this week in their game with the Houston Texans, they had combined for thirty-four points. The game was pacing to go well over sixty points, and the total was just fifty. But in the second half, neither team could move the football on offense and they managed just nine points, keeping the game under the total.
— 🚷Get Off My Lawn!🚷 (@TheRealJoeFritz) December 24, 2019
Jameis Winston continued his habit of throwing to the other team has he tossed four more interceptions to bring his season total to twenty-eight, ten more than the next closest QB. Jameis has a shot to be the first-ever member of the 30-30 club, throwing for 30 TDs and 30 interceptions. Not really a club you want to be the sole member of if you ask me.
2. Detroit Lions Over Record (10-5) Last Weeks Rank: 3
At this point, the Lions are only on this list because of their bad defense and low expectations. The offense is anemic with David Blough running the show, and even getting running back Kerryon Johnson back from injury wasn’t enough to get much of anything going.
But they did give up twenty-seven points against the Denver Broncos, and that was enough to push the game over a low total. The lines have been very reasonable on Detroit recently, and next week the total is just forty-three points against the Packers.
3. Carolina Panthers Over Record (10-5) Last Weeks Rank: 2
Sliding down a spot this week are the Carolina Panthers. Similar to the Lions, the Panthers are here more for their defensive struggles than their stellar offense. The Panthers scored only six points with Will Grier under center and wasted yet another great game from Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffrey caught a career-high fifteen balls and has a shot to go over 1,000 yards receiving for the year next week. He also has a shot at the all-time yards from scrimmage record of 2,509 set by Chris Johnson in 2009. McCaffrey needs 216 yards for the record. With the rest of the season wasted, I would expect a heavy dose of #22 as they try and get him into the record books.
4. New York Giants Over Record (9-6) Last Weeks Rank: Not Ranked
Saquan Barkley made it up to all of the fantasy football owners that took him in the first round this year by delivering them the win in fantasy championship week. Barkley had his best game of a busted season this week as he racked up 279-yards and two scores. Daniel Jones threw for five touchdowns in his best game ever, and the Giants scored forty-one points in a 41-35 barn burner with the Washington Redskins.
"I’m thankful to have that record. Even though my name is on that record, it took a lot of people to help me to do it."@saquon set a new Giants record for most scrimmage yards in a game, surpassing Tiki Barber ‼️ pic.twitter.com/DnJ2yxsyh4
— New York Giants (@Giants) December 23, 2019
Last week it was Eli Manning at the helm, this week it was Danny Dimes, and while this team looks to be going nowhere fast, they have been fun to watch the last two weeks as they have scored a combined seventy-seven points. The total is 45.5 next week at home against an Eagles team that must win to make the playoffs, you can expect this hot offense to cool down considerably against Philly.
5. Tennessee Titans Over Record (9-6) Last Weeks Rank: 5
When Derek Henry was scratched last minute with a hamstring injury, it was hard to still like the over for Tennessee. But the Titans used a running back by committee approach, led by Dion Lewis, to still rush for 149-yards, and Ryan Tannehill continued his career resurgence as he threw for three touchdowns.
It wasn’t enough to win the game, but the twenty-eight points were more than enough to push the game over and were impressive considering how major a part of this offense Henry has been.
And here they are folks, my betting power rankings for week seventeen! Make sure you keep a close eye on those inactive lists as many guys are going to be sitting out in week seventeen. That has made the betting market as hard as ever to navigate, make sure you do your homework! Thanks for reading, and good luck betting the NFL in week seventeen!