gravatar

NFL: Where is the Value Going into Week 6?

NFL Futures Picks - Week 6

Every week we dive into a new week of NFL action with an eye on the best NFL futures. For me, it’s not just about recapping the previous week or the season as a whole – it’s to gauge the fluidity of any given bet.

There’s also the aim to look ahead and really try to answer whether or not your previous opinion still stands firm.

Let’s take a look at how the NFL futures are shaping up going into week six and see how bettors may want to wager:

Super Bowl 53 Odds

The Rams remain the favorites to win Super Bowl 53 (+300) and continue to lose value with each passing week. They’re just that good and as much as I want to stick with the Pats (my preseason pick), I’m jumping ship to maximize value while I still can.

New England (+700), Kansas City (+700) and New Orleans (+1000) are all very good bets as well, but the Rams look like the best team in football. We’ll know a lot more when they face the Chiefs later this year, but I expect them to win that game.

I think you can still consider some mid-range flier bets like the Jaguars (+1800), Packers (+2800), Vikings (+1800), Bears (+2500) and Steelers (+2500), but I wouldn’t get carried away.

L.A. has slipped a bit defensively the past two weeks, but that’s due to some injuries. When they’re 100%, the Rams are going to be pretty unstoppable. The fact that they can just keep winning shootouts no matter what is pretty encouraging and they’ve yet to dip below 30 points in any game this year.

New Orleans looks like someone that could give them some problems, but I don’t really see anyone else in the NFC that can prevent them from at least getting to Super Bowl 53. The Bears are still sneaky, but their offense isn’t easy to trust just yet.

The Patriots and Chiefs are worth a look and would obviously be L.A.’s main issue later in the year. Regardless, you’re probably not getting a better price than +300 for the rest of the year.

Maybe I’ll kick myself for turning down the Pats/Chiefs at +700, but I doubt it.

Division Winner Odds

I take a look at the updated NFL division winner odds every single week and while I try not to change my previous pick with a knee-jerk reaction, I have changed my mind in a few spots.

I think five weeks in, though, things are starting to clear up. Let’s run through each division to see what bets are worth a look and who looks like the best pick to win their division:

AFC East

Miami has dropped two straight and simply appear to be the frauds I thought they were. They are your best shot (+700) at stopping the Patriots, but it just isn’t happening.

New England offers no value (-1000), but they’re getting better and are already out of an early hole at 3-2. They’re about to get nasty offensively and if they win in week six against the Chiefs their Super Bowl hype will start heating up again.

While I’m off of them as title favorites for the moment, there’s no way they lose the AFC East.

AFC North

The Cincinnati Bengals (+140) lead the way here with a nice 4-1 record. They’ve looked good all year and their only loss was on the road against a solid Panthers team.

The Bengals are legit, but I don’t know if they’re in for an easy run to the division title. The Ravens, Steelers and (gulp) even the Browns are breathing down their neck. Tripping up this week against the Steelers would break this thing wide open.

Pittsburgh remains the most talented team here. I’ll be pulling for Cleveland to shock everyone, but I’m not ready to stray from the Steelers just yet.

AFC South

This division remains suspect. The Jaguars lost last week to help tighten things up, but they’re still the best team here by quite a bit. You’re not getting much value, but I’ll stick with them at their -125 price tag.

I still think you can look at the Texans (+375) and Titans (+275). Just keep in mind that 0-3 teams have made the playoffs just five times since 1980. Sorry, Texans. That, and the Titans are just incredibly tough to buy.

It might not be as easy as I thought it’d be, but this is still Jacksonville’s division to lose. They’re locks in my mind, though, so this is a pretty sweet price.

AFC West

The Kansas City Chiefs were fun sleepers to take the AFC West before the season started and now they’re locks (-600) to secure it. There’s always the faint chance they crater, but I’m not seeing it.

Los Angeles (+450) is a great price and is your only viable bet here if you’re not rolling with the undefeated Chiefs. They do still have a shot to even the season series with KC, so they’re not completely out of this just yet.

Oakland is a mess and Denver is reeling behind three straight losses. They’re not threats and when it’s all said and done I’ll be quite shocked if the Chiefs don’t hold on for the crown.

NFC East

Welcome to what may be the worst division in pro football. A previously good Redskins defense got horribly exposed in New Orleans in week five. I liked the Redskins as sleepers coming into the new season, but I’m souring on them quickly.

The issue here is this division is just full of teams that are bad or pedestrian at best. Dallas can’t win on the road, New York is dysfunctional and the Eagles are eating some pretty tough losses.

Eventually, the Eagles will probably have to bench Jalen Mills, who has regressed horribly in 2018. If they make the tough call, perhaps they can regroup and take this division again. Everyone remains in play here, sadly.

NFC North

All summer I was debating over the Vikings and Packers, but surprisingly enough, the NFC North has four viable contenders at the moment. I still don’t really believe in Detroit, while Green Bay will need to do something special to get me back on board with them.

The Packers could easily be 4-1, but they could just as easily be 1-4. They just are too “middle of the road” for me to back, even at a nice +250 price.

Minnesota saved their season in week five and can still turn things around, but their defense has slipped remarkably.

I don’t see much reason to get away from the Bears, who are flat out dominant defensively and just might have enough offense to be a legit Super Bowl threat. I’m not going that far just yet, but Chicago still packs a punch in terms of value and I’m biting.

NFC South

The Atlanta Falcons really blew it in week five and suddenly they’re 1-4. That is crazy to me, while I think you can write them and the Buccaneers off already.

The main reason why is because the Saints just look fantastic.

They probably should have reached the NFC title game last year and they sure look like they agree with that notion. Now that Mark Ingram is back, their offense is more balanced and their defense will get a little more time to breathe.

The Panthers (+200) aren’t a bad pivot here, but the Saints are the more talented squad.

NFC West

This is another division that is pretty much decided, as the Rams (-10000) have such locked in odds that betting in their favor seems like a real waste of time.

While I think they win this division, the Seahawks (+1600) did give them a very good game in week five. Unfortunately, they’re the only contender here and they already have three losses.

There’s just too much ground for Seattle to make up. Due to the lack of value, I’d avoid betting on this one. That, or just go really hard at the Rams.

Who Will Catch Drew Brees’ 500th TD Pass?

I give updates on the latest Super Bowl odds and division winners every week, but it’s really nice when the top NFL betting sites push out new prop bets to take advantage of.

With Drew Brees breaking the record for career passing yardage on Monday Night Football, he’s the talk of the town and Sportsbetting.ag is already looking ahead to his next big milestone.

It’s hard not to, seeing as Brees is literally one touchdown pass from joining the 500-TD club. You can wager on which lucky Saints player hauls in that landmark score:

  • Alvin Kamara (+250)
  • Michael Thomas (+250)
  • Benjamin Watson (+500)
  • Cameron Meredith (+500)
  • Mark Ingram (+500)
  • Tre’Quan Smith (+500)
  • Austin Carr (+1000)
  • Josh Hill (+1000)


I’m a little shocked Ted Ginn Jr. isn’t an option here. He missed the Saints’ week five game, but they’re on bye this week. He absolutely could return and burn bettors here. He’s not an option, but if you bet on someone and Ginn gets the 500th score, you’re not winning anything.

That being said, this is pretty much everyone else it could be and you’re largely going to stick with Kamara, Thomas and Ingram.

Should Ginn be out again, the explosive Smith is in play. However, the value isn’t so eye-popping that I’d go away from the two best options.

It’s Michael Thomas for me. He scored 9 times as a rookie last year and has three touchdowns already in 2018. If you’re going to burn the Baltimore Ravens (who the Saints will face in week 7) through the air, it’s with wide receivers and not running backs.

Baltimore ranks #2 in the league in receiving yardage allowed to running backs, so it’s possible they limit that part of New Orlean’s passing attack. You could also consider one of the tight ends, but why get cute with it?

Will Jason Witten Still Be on MNF in 2019?

There has been an awful lot of chatter on social media about how the new Monday Night Football crew is, well, awful.

I’ve tuned in for a couple of games and let’s just say they are certainly worse than Jon Gruden. Witten hasn’t left a lasting mark and the entire crew doesn’t always hand out great insight.

This hasn’t been a good fit as a whole, so I firmly expect a big shakeup going into 2019, barring some crazy turn around. The odds are pretty even as to whether Witten returns next year:

  • Yes (+100)
  • No (-140)

This is one of those weird things where it’s not an easy job to perfect, but it’s just so obvious when someone isn’t handling it the best way possible.

I think Witten has some potential, but he tends to over-explain things and is too enthusiastic in spots where he needn’t be. The MNF showrunners may opt for a more cerebral or articulate approach going into next year.

Will Mason Crosby Miss a FG in Week 6?

Crosby made national headlines last week, when he choked away any chance of the Green Bay Packers taking down the Lions in Detroit.

Green Bay didn’t play their best football and found themselves in a 24-0 hole at the break, but Crosby missing kick after kick played a big hand in that.

Crosby missed five in all (4 field goals, 1 extra point) and considering the Packers only lost by eight points, it’s fairly arguable his epicly atrocious performance contributed heavily to the loss.

Please Note:
Normally a pretty reliable (and clutch) kicker, Crosby may have just had a brutal day and can put it behind him. Then again, missing one more field goal isn’t that outlandish and it’s also quite possible he’s developed a case of the “yips”.

Either way, I’ll soak up the value and assume Crosby misses at least one kick on Monday Night Football next week.

Will the Chiefs or Rams Go 16-0?

The last NFL future for week six is a fun one, especially since both the Rams (5-0) and Chiefs (5-0) have tough road games ahead of them.

Sportsbetting.ag wonders if either can go the distance and finish the regular season at a perfect 16-0.

That’s quite the tall order – even as good as both of these teams are – especially when you consider the NFL has seen a team stay perfect just two times in league history.

If one of them has a legit chance, it’s the Rams. Their division isn’t any good, they are absolutely stacked on both sides of the ball and based off of how good they were in 2017, they’re a little easier to trust.

Kansas City is quite loaded on offense as well, but their defense has some issues and Patrick Mahomes – as impressive as he’s been – is technically still a rookie.

It’s actually funny, as both of these teams do face off in week 11. Could they both already have losses by then, though? Or will that game open the door for one of them to go 16-0? Here are the odds:

  • Yes (+700)
  • No (-1500)

Obviously both teams can’t go 16-0, so I think you need to consider who will win that game and then look at their schedule as well as history.

History suggests it won’t happen, while the scheduling isn’t what I’d call “easy” for either side. Outside of the Chiefs, the Rams have to face the Seahawks again, while showdowns with the Packers, Saints, Bears and Eagles could qualify as difficult.

The Rams almost lost this past week and have been in two straight close games, too. As awesome as they are, it’s quite arguable they’re inching closer to that first loss.

Kansas City probably should have lost a game already. They were down 10 points in Denver two weeks ago, but managed to score two touchdowns late and grab the win.

They have it fairly easy in the AFC West, but they do face a decent Chargers team again, while matchups with the Rams, Patriots (in week six), Bengals, Ravens and Seahawks don’t look like cakewalks on paper.

Both of these teams have the talent to pull this off, but I’m more inclined to buy one of them going 15-1 (or maybe both), rather than going through an entire year without a single loss.

The value is fun, but it’s just not realistic.

Summary

If you can find other NFL futures to try to take advantage of, definitely do that. Not every site offers the same prop bets and they certainly don’t always put up the same exact odds, either.

Most sites are sticking firm with Super Bowl and division winner wagers, but if I can find bets for teams making the playoffs and various props, I’m game for aiming high.

For now, I think bettors are slowly getting a great feel for the Super Bowl and the divisions. That should bleed into some props going your way if you play it correctly, too.

Whatever the case, I wish you luck in your week six bets as well as any NFL futures you hop on.

Our Picks
Super Bowl 53: Los Angeles Rams
+300
AFC East: New England Patriots
-1000
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
+250
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars
-125
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs
-600
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
+110
NFC North: Chicago Bears
+175
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
-175
M. Thomas Will Catch Brees’ 500th TD Pass
+250
Will Jason Witten Still Be on MNF in 2019? No
-140
Will Mason Crosby Miss a FG in Week 6? Yes
+150
Will the Chiefs or Rams Go 16-0? No
-1500

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *