PFL 2021 Championships Fight Preview, Odds, and Betting Analysis

Harrison Vs Guardado PFL Background

The PFL 2021 Finals are underway Wednesday, October 27th at the Seminole Hard Rock Casino in Hollywood, Florida. This card carries six Tournament Championships and the return of boxing legend Clarrisa Shields.

Prop bets are available on every bout, and seven of ten fights contain forty cent or better payouts on both fighters.

Each division champion crowned will receive a 1 million dollar payout. Fighters will be looking to win at any cost, and often, this makes a decision more likely as fighters work toward not losing above all else.

At thesportsgeek.com, we went 8-2 on the last card, calling 80% of fight picks accurately across ten fights. Let’s take you the fight stats, betting odds, and top picks for each fight on the PFL 2021 Championship card.

PFL Main Event: Kayla Harrison vs Taylor Guardado

Women’s Lightweight Tournament Championship

Kayla Harrison faces her toughest opponent to date in the viscous invicta Tournament contestant, Taylor Guardado.

Fighter Kayla Harrison Taylor Guardado
Odds -3500 +1450
Age 31 30
Height 5’8’’ 5’6’’
Reach 66” 69”
Record 11-0 3-1
Total Fights 11 4
Submissions/TKO 4 submission, 5 TKO 0
Odds Last Three Fights -1667, -1900, -2000 -135, -145, -105

Harrison is a strong favorite, and gives up three inches of reach against Guardado. You’ll notice a discrepancy in skill and experience. While Kayla was a two time Olympic Judo champion, Taylor was enjoying her amatuer fight career.

Taylor has thirteen unrecorded fights that span back to 2009. She beat the UFC’s Raquel Pennington in 2010, lost a close fight to Ronda Rousey in 2011, and defeated the UFC’s Ashlee Evans-Smith in 2012.

Both Fighters have a history of favorite status.

Placing a Bet on Kayla Harrision

A bet on Harrison pays out at only $0.03 per dollar wagered. She’s blown through every opponent she’s faced, with Larissa Pacheco being the only fighter to take her to a decision. She’s a nice addition to a parlay bet. I’m going to look for the right prop bet to pick based on their collective performances.

Kayla Harrison Record and Fight History

Harrison has two TKO finishes and one submission finish in PFL. She went pro in 2018, so all eleven finishes are over the last three years.

Harrison is entirely focused on getting whatever finish comes her way. I want to be able to predict whether she’ll be submission or TKO focused, but in reality, Harrison doesn’t think that way- she’ll be looking for any finish available. Note that this is her strongest favorite status of the season, up to -3500 from -1667.

Comparing Harrison’s and Guardado’s PFL Stats

Stats for 2021 Season Harrison Guardado
Strikes Landed 560/688 239/299
Takedowns 8/12 9/11
Inner Ring Takedown Percentage 19% 33%

Harrison is out striking Guardado 2:1, primarily via ground strikes. Guardado has better takedown success, and better success at the inner ring. This means off of the fence, Guardado has better takedown outcomes on overage.

Harrison will usually bully opponents to the cage. She should double down on this strategy against Guardado.

Placing a Bet on Guardado

Guardado pays out at $14.50 per dollar wagered. Upsetting Kayla Harrison is no easy task.

Harrison Strengths and Weaknesses

She put intense cage pressure on Muay Thai champion Genah Fabian. Her last fight was one of the most refined of her career. The referee refused to stop the bout and Genah took dozens of nearly unanswered shots, where the best she could do was cup her ear in defense. Harrison is yet to display any weaknesses, except in open boxing.

She’s been training at ATT with Amanda Nunes, so we can assume her striking will improve.

Guardado Strengths and Weaknesses

Guardado is more focused on shootboxing than clinch work. She’ll look to stay out of the clinch, striking at Harrison from range. If the fight makes it late into round two or three, I won’t be surprised to see Guardado shoot a double leg attempt. She hasn’t finished since her fight with Rousey as an amatuer.

Top Prop Bet Picks for Harrison vs Guardado

Over 1 ½ Rounds:
+140
Under 1 ½ Rounds:
-170
Harrison by Decision:
+700
Either Fighter by Submission:
+100

If you believe in the strength of Guardado’s will, the Harrison by decision prop is seven times your money. I’m looking closely at the over and under props. They’re set at the 1 ½ rounds mark despite this being a five round fight.

Final Pick for Kayla Harrison vs Taylor Guardado

I do not think Guardado will win. She’s tough, and will come in with a good gameplan. Her history of staying alive through tough moments leads me to think she’ll be a challenge for Harrison, more so than the last three fights.

Kayla Harrison vs Taylor Guardado:
Over 1 ½ Rounds !

Co-Main Event: Magomed Mogmedkerimov vs Ray Cooper III

Welterweight Tournament Championship

Our Welterweight Final was between PFL tournament winner Magomed and the man who upset Rory MacDonald, Ray Cooper.

Fighter Magomed Mogmedkerimov Ray Cooper III
Odds -200 +170
Age 31 28
Height 6’1’’ 5’7’’
Reach 73’’ 70’’
Record 29-5 23-7-1
Total Fights 34 31
Submissions/TKO 9 submissions, 10 TKO 7 submissions, 14 TKO
Odds Last Three Fights -835, -1200, -350 +134, +180, -649

Cooper is a favorite of the two fights running. He stands 5’7’’ at welterweight and gives up three inches of reach. Both fighters have around 60% finishing ratios and above thirty fights.

Placing a Bet on Magomed Mogmedkerimov

Mogomed has had a flawless season, in addition to his thirteen-fight winning streak. He defeated Ray Cooper in 2018 via guillotine in the second round. Given his continued, unrivaled success it is a wonder he pays out at $0.50 per dollar wagered.

Magomed Mogmedkerimov Record and Fight Performances

Magomed’s last loss was in 2015 against Vitaly Bigdash. Each of these losses took place in Russian organizations like ProFC and S-70. His pro record spans back to when Magomed was just 18, fighting in 2008.

His style has evolved into a pressure fighter that grinds fighters out near the fence. He boxes people into the corner, and uses superior wrestling and ground striking to work toward the finish. Magomed has the ability to outpace fighters, shown in his 222 of 366 standing strikes landed in two fights this season alone.

Magomed has finished five of his ten PFL bouts.

Placing a Bet on Ray Cooper III

Cooper pays out at $1.70 per dollar wagered, and in my opinion, he should offer much more.

The Ray Cooper that lost to Magomed three years ago has since earned two decision victories over tough opponents, and finished four others. He’s still riding off two wins on an aging Jake Shields, and his performance over Rory MacDonald doesn’t convince me he’s a changed fighter.

Ray Cooper III Record and Fight Performances

Cooper’s last loss was to John Howard in 2019. He was knocked unconscious in the second round. Coopers had a great season, landing 712 of 996 thrown in just three bouts. However his high pace is indicative of his main weakness, that if the tide turns on the fight, Cooper fades.

Cooper showed improved wrestling, shooting multiple double leg takedowns on MacDonald. Rory gassed early and was unable to withstand Cooper’s pace. At one point he began to win the grappling exchanges, and if Cooper brings that level of clench fighting to Magomed, he’ll get stomped.

Top Prop Bet Picks for Magomed vs Cooper II

Over 4½ Rounds:
-130
Under 4 ½ Rounds:
+100
Magomed Inside the Distance:
+250
Either Fighter by Submission:
+225

Considering the submissions Magomed has pulled off, the either fighter by submission prop would be the riskier, higher paying bet. The -200 moneyline on Magomed is too high to pass up for me. I could see this fight going to a decision, in which case the money lines still pay more than the Over prop.

Final Pick in Magomed Mogmedkerimov vs Ray Cooper III

Cooper is tough, but he isn’t finishing higher level fighters. Magomed is on track to be the best fighter in the PFL pound for pound.

Magomed Mogmedkerimov vs Ray Cooper III:
Magomed Mogmedkerimov!

Claressa Shields vs Abigail Montes

The boxing legend Shields takes on Abigail Montes in this lightweight bout.

Fighter Claressa Shields Abigail Montes
Odds -300 +250
Age 26 21
Height 5’8’’ 5’4’’
Reach 68’’ 69’’
Record 1-0 2-0
Submissions/TKO 0 submissions, 1 TKO 0 submissions, 1 TKO
Odds Last FIght -265 +330

Shields is the favorite with nearly all stats the same. She has a mild four inch height advantage.

Placing a Bet on Clarrissa Shields

Shields plays out at $0.33 per dollar wager. She’s been working with Jackson-Wink in Albuquerque, developing her mma game at a rapid pace. They’ve produced quite a bit of training footage for Shields, and it looks like she’s learned grappling quickly.

Any bettor’s biggest concern should be shields submission experience, which is still very fresh.

Her first bout ended by TKO. Elkin took her down and dominated early, winning the first two rounds with relative ease. Shields clipped her with an uppercut in the third that led to a fight ending ground strikes.

Claressa Shields Boxing Experience

For those unaware, Shields is in the rankings for best  pound for pound female boxer of all time. She’s 11-0 with two KOs. She won two Olympic gold medals in 2012 and 2016.

Her most recent boxing match was Ivana Habazin, a 20-3 contender who Shields beat on the scorecards eight rounds to two.

Shields was never a knockout artist, scoring two KOs her whole career as a boxer.

Placing a Bet on Abigail Montes

Is a fighter out of Mexico cross training at multiple facilities. Her first fight was at bantamweight, and she struggled to grapple at that weight. In 2019 she had no head movement to speak of, and while her striking has won her two bouts, she’s in another world vs Claressa Shields.

Abigail pays out at $2.50 per dollar wagered.

Top Prop Bet Picks for Montes vs Shields

Over 1½ Rounds:
-130
Under 1½ Rounds:
+100
Fight Goes to Decision:
+145
Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision:
-185
Shields via TKO:
-135

Shields pays out at ⅓ of your bet despite being three natural weight classes higher than her grossly inexperienced opponent. While some of these prop bets feel like the right move if you’re looking for a bigger payout, I’ll be sticking with the money lines. We don’t have enough data on Shields in mma to predict an over/under prop.

Final Pick for Claressa Shields vs Abigail Montes

Shields is a boxing GOAT that should make a smooth MMA transition.

Claressa Shields vs Abigail Montes:
Claressa Shields!

Bruno Cappelozza vs Ante Delija

2021 Heavyweight Championship

Two finishers entered into the PLF Heavyweight Final for the second time this season after Cappellozza knocked out Delija in 46 seconds.

Fighter Bruno Cappelozza Ante Delija
Odds -220 +185
Age 32 31
Height 6’2’’ 6’5’’
Reach 79” 79’’
Record 13-5 19-4
Total Fights 18 23
Submissions/TKO 0 submissions, 13 TKO 6 submissions, 8 TKO
Odds Last FIght -200 +285

Ante has a better submission game, and Bruno has lost twice via submission. Bruno is a knockout artist with a slight height disadvantage. Neither fighter had an amatuer career.

Placing a Bet on Bruno Cappelozza

This is Bruno’s first season in PFL, winning all three bouts via finish in the first and second round. He lost to UFC title contender Jiri Prochazka by knockout in 2018, and before that hasn’t lost since 2015.

Bruno’s long spanning career started at Jungle Fight in 2010. He racked up both submission losses for the promotion, and his submission defense has since improved.

Bruno pays out at $0.45 per dollar wagered.

Bruno’s PLF Performances

Bruno finished all three PFL bouts with just 58 strikes. He rarely shoots for the takedown, but is 1/1 in PFL on attempts.

He came in as the underdog in his win over Delija, a fight he won with a flurry of strikes in under one minute. His most recent fight against Jamelle Jones ended with a jab.

Placing a Bet on Ante Delija

Ante pays out at $1.85 per dollar wagered. This is low considering he lost a fight to Bruno just months ago.

Ante was on a three fight winning streak before his loss to Bruno. He’s defeated a number of mid level heavyweights, and his biggest win to date is the 8-2 Chandler Cole of PFL.

Ante’s PFL Stats

Ante landed 188 of 264 strikes while standing in his last three fights. I think he’ll be shooting the takedown more often this fight, scoring 66% of his PFL attempts.

Ante can’t stand and exchange with Burno. He doesn’t have the chin for it, or the head movement.

Top Prop Bet Picks for Cappelozza vs Delija

Over 1½ Rounds:
-105
Under 1½ Rounds:
-125
Fight Goes to Decision:
+325
Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision:
-475
Cappelozza via TKO:
-175

Cappelozza is a steal at -220, but a -175 prop that matches his every win is even better. Cappelozza by TKO pays $0.57 per dollar wagered. The Under ½ Rounds prop is enticing, but I imagine Ante is going to come out aggressive for the takedown and could tie up a round or two in this way.

Final Bet for Ante Delija vs Bruno Cappelozza

Bruno is in the prime of his career, and I don’t see Ante slowing down his momentum.

Ante Delija vs Bruno Cappelozza:
Bruno Capelozza by TKO !

Movlid Khaybulaev vs Chris Wade

2021 Featherweight Championship

UFC veteran Chris Wade is the underdog yet again for his bout with Movlid Khaybulaev.

Fighter Movlid Khaybulaev Chris Wade
Odds -172 +140
Age 31 34
Height 5’6’’ 5’10’’
Reach 70’’ 70’’
Record 18-0-1, 1NC 20-6
Total Fights 20 26
Submissions/TKO 2 submission, 6 TKO 5 submission, 1 TKO
Odds Last Fight -135,-170, -140 +215, +170, +125

This marks Chris’s fourth fight as the underdog in a row. Movlid is the favorite and has never been above -111.

Wade is taller, with more experience. His UFC run was just four years ago, spanning 2014 to 2017.

Placing a Bet on Movlid Khaybulaev

Movlid has been with the PFL for two seasons, 2019 and 2021. His 2019 run ended in a no contest after he was finished by Daniel Pineda, but Pineda was popped by NSAC for exogenous testosterone.

Movlid’s second run has been more successful, winning three decisions in a row. His split decision win over Brendan Loughanane gives some indication that this Chris Wade fight will be competitive.

Movlid’s PFL Stats

Movlid keeps a moderate pace that he holds throughout the fight, landing 636 of 814 strikes across six bouts. His main draw is his 24 of 26 takedowns landed. He lands the majority of takedowns off the fence, 86% of his work is done nner zone (meaning off the fence in PFL.)

Against Andre Harrison, he won a decision that was one of his closest to date. Movlid struggled to finish or set up takedowns. Wade will look to this bout to develop a strategy for Movlid.

Placing a Bet on Chris Wade

Wade pays out at $1.40 per dollar wager. We didn’t call his upset of Bubba Jenkins, which put him at 3-0 for the season.

This is Wade’s third PFL and his third time at the finals. He’s lost to Loik Radzhabov and Natan Schulte inside the PFL, each loss via decision.

Wade’s game has evolved a bit since his UFC days, and he’s less focused on submissions and achieving top position as he was back then.

Wade’s PFL bouts have gone to decision nine times out of eleven. He has one guillotine choke finish and one TKO, but has never been finished in PFL.

Chris Wade PFL Stats

While standing, Wade lands less often and strikes less often than Molvid, landing 549 of 708 strikes across eleven bouts. He does have solid ground striking, landing 207 shots in PFL.

Wade carries a 30% takedown percentage, though I find it unlikely he’ll look for the takedown attempt versus Movlid.

Top Prop Bet Picks for Movlid vs Wade

Over 4½ Rounds:
-170
Under 4½ Rounds:
+140
Fight Goes to Decision:
-185
Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision:
+145
Khaybulaev via TKO:
+250

With Khaybulaev’s willingness to win a decision, and Wade’s ability to stop anyone from finishing him, I think we’ll see a long fight. The Over 4 ½ rounds prop gives us a little wiggle room and we don’t lose much money compared to the fight Goes to decision prop.

The Over pays $0.59 per dollar wagered.

Final Betting Pick for Movlid Khaybulaev vs Chris Wade

I’m not sure who will win this fight. I think Wade could pull it off, especially after a  look at his last few performances. I’m not going to bet against Movlid’s success, and you don’t know how a fighter will withstand that kind of pressure until they’re in the cage.

Movlid Khaybulaev vs Chris Wade:
Over 4 ½ Rounds!

Antonio Carlos Junior vs Marthin Hamlet

2021 Light-Heavyweight Tournament Championship

The Light-heavyweight final is between UFC competitor and BJJ black belt Antonio Junior versus human wrecking ball, Marthin Hamlet.

Fighter Antonio Carlos Junior Marthin Hamlet
Odds -185 +160
Age 31 29
Height 6’2’’ 6’1’’
Reach 79’’ 75’’
Record 12-5, 2 NC 8-2
Total Fights 19 10
Submissions/TKO 9 Submissions, 0 TKO 3 submissions, 3 TKO
Odds Last Three Fights -158, -275,-125 -147,-265, -265

Hamlet is younger and less experienced, but has more TKO wins. Junior takes the height and reach advantage, submitmitting half of his total opponents.

Placing a Bet on Antonio Carlos Junior

Junior pays out at $0.54 per dollar wager. Considering that Hamlet’s most recent loss was via submission, it’s easy to imagine that the much more experienced and decorated submission competitor would do the same.

Hamlet submitted mostly due to exhaustion, unable to keep his pace for three rounds. Carlos may be able to submit Hamlet early, but I imagine they’ll have a tough fight beforehand.

Antonio’s Record

Antonio left the UFC for PFL this year, fighting his last fight against Brad Tavares in January. He was on a three fight losing streak, totalling a 7-3 UFC record, not counting his three wins of TUF. The former Ultimate Fighter defeated fighters like Marvin Vettori, now 185 lbs title contender, and Tim Boetsh via RNC in round 1.

Antonio’s PFL Stats

Antonio’s takedown percentage is among the most important stats here. He landed 4 of 14 takedowns across his three PFL appearances.

His guillotine win over fellow UFC alum Tom Lawler at the end of round three sported plenty of clinch fighting. Locking up with Hamlet is going to test Antonio’s strength and hopefully showcase his improved grappling.

Placing a Bet on Marthin Hamlet

Hamlet has been open in stating he feels he can grapple with Antonio in MMA and that “grappling without punches is different.” Presumably, he sees many fighters aren’t aggressive enough to put Antonio away.

Hamlet pays out +160.

Hamlet PFL Stats and Performances

Hamlet has landed 180 of 196 strikes across three fights. He defeated Dan Spohn with a second round submission, and Cezar Ferreira by hamstring injury immediately in the first round.

Most of these strikes came during his three round loss against 8-4 Cory Hendricks.

Hendricks outlasted Hamlet’s onslaught and choked him in the third round. Hendricks has been knocked out twice in his career.
Given that stat, I don’t think Hamlet will be finishing Antonio. We will see a decision or a submission.

Top Prop Bet Picks for Hamlet vs Carlos Junior

Over 2½ Rounds:
-105
Under 2½ Rounds:
-125
Fight Goes to Decision:
-230
Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision:
-109
Junior via Submission:
+150

Junior’s time at ATT in Florida makes me more confident he can finish a decision win over Hamlet. Hamlet may come out firing, making the Under 2 ½  Rounds prop feel likely. I’m not convinced Hamlet is on Junior’s level, and the PFL wanted to protect him to build a star. They threw easy fighters his way, and he still lost to one of them.

I’m more convinced of a Junior submission bet than a Hamlet Moneyline.

Final Betting Pick for Mathin Hamlet vs Antonio Carlos Junior

Antonio Carlos Junior vs Marthin Hamlet:
Antonio Carlos Junior!

Loik Radzhabov vs Raush Manfio

2021 Lightweight Tournament Championship

Knockout artist Raugh Manfio takes on the well rounded grappler Loik Radzhabov.

Fighter Loik Radzhabov Raush Manfio
Odds -230 +195
Age 31 29
Height 5’8’’ 5’9’’
Reach 68’’ 73’’
Record 15-3-1 14-3
Total Fights 19 17
Submissions/TKO 4 submissions, 7 TKO 0 submissions, 7 TKO
Odds Last Fight -205 +171

Ruash has the majority of natural advantages, coming in the underdog against Loik due to Looks wins over higher caliber fighters and Raush’s near misses in each bout.

Placing a Bet on Raush Manfio

Raush pays out at $1.95 per dollar wagered. He’s won three straight at PFL in his first season, defeating the former UFC title contender Anthony Pettis. All three of his PFL bouts ended in a decision, with two wins coming by way of split decision for Raush.

Raush’s PFL Stats

Raush hasn’t attempted any takedowns in PFL. he’s landed 198 total strikes to win all three PFL fights.

Raush’s like striking makes up for ⅓ of his total strikes. Loik often looks for the takedown as a kick counter, so this may play a role.

Raush’s Fight Record and Titan FC Title

Raush was the Titan FC champion. While he has knockout power, he hasn’t demonstrated it in the cage since 2017. He joined PFL after losing his Titan FC title. It’s clear that Ruash is talented, but stopping Loik will take significant takedown defense that he hasn’t shown in PFL or in Titan FC.

Placing a Bet on Loik Radzhabov

Loik fought Alex Martinez twice this year, losing in April and winning definitively in August. His first round knockout of Akhmed Aliev took only thirty seconds. Last season Loik went 2-2 in the PFL. He’s started cross training with Sanford MMA in Florida and it’s changed his abilities drastically.

Loik pays out at $0.43 per dollar wager.

Loik’s PFL Stats and Performances

Loik is constantly going for the takedown, scoring 26 of 34 across two PFL seasons. He stays active on the feet, landing 250 of 342 strikes total.

His losses to Natan Shulte and Alex Martinez have shown that if you can stop the takedown, Loik gets desperate in the late rounds.

Top Prop Bet Picks for Loik vs Raush

Over 4½ Rounds:
-190
Under 4½ Rounds:
+160
Total rounds over 26.5:
-125
Total rounds under 26.5:
-109
Total rounds over 25.5:
-189
Total rounds under 25.5:
+137

There aren’t many likely props, and I see this fight going to a decision. Maybe we’ll see a new version of Loik given his time at Sanford.

The Over gives us better odds than Loik, but I’m not against the possibility of a finish in this fight.

Final Betting Pick for Loik Radzhabov vs Raush Manfio

Loik Radzhabov vs Raush Manfio:
Loik Radzhabov!

Omari Akhmedov vs Jordan Young

Omari jumps from the UFC to Bellator import Jordan Young.

Fighter Omari Akhmedov Jordan Young
Odds -575 +375
Age 34 26
Height 6’0’’ 6’4’’
Reach 73’’ 79’’
Record 21-6-1 11-2
Submissions/TKO 6 submissions, 7TKO 9 submissions, 0 TKO
Odds Last Fight +135 +650

Young  has the majority of advantages except for a serious experience advantage on part of Omari. Both fighters come off of underdog losses leading up to this bout.

Young vs Omari Training Backgrounds

Both fighters come from American Top Team Florida. Omari made the switch back to Tiger Muay Thai and MMA to train for the bout in Thailand. It’s unclear whether they’ve trained together, but it’s not the first time Omari has fought a teammate, taking on Kyle Noke in 2016.

Placing a Bet on Young

Young has lost two fight’s straight to Tom Lawlor and Julius Anglickas, two fough 185 lbs fighters. His submission wins are primarily in the first round, save a third round submission over Jamal Pogues in Bellator.

Young pays out at $3.75 per dollar wager.

Placing a Bet on Omari

Omari is the favorite at -575.

He struggled toward the end of his UFC career, losing to Chris Weidman and Brad Tavaras thirteen months apart. He was submitted twice in the UFC, both times via guillotine off a takedown attempt.

Top Prop Bet Picks for Young vs Omari

Over 2½ Rounds:
-185
Under 2½ Rounds:
+155

Final Betting Pick for Omari Akhmedov vs Jordan Young

I see an upset. Young is a still developing athlete and Omari is open to good submission fighting. After reviewing fight tape,Young plays a frustrating game for Omari, and he’ll need to rush forward, similar to the Gunnar Nelson fight.

Omari Akhmedov vs Jordan Young:
Jordan Young!

Julia Budd vs Kaitlin Young

The strong favorite Budd hopes to walk right through Kaitlin Young.

Fighter Julia Budd Kaitlin Young
Odds -430 +330
Age 38 31
Height 5’8’’ 5’6’’
Reach 69’’ 67’’
Record 15-3 12-11
Submissions/TKO 1 submissions, 6 TKO 0 submission, 8 TKO

Julia Budd is seven years older, with slightly more range and height.

Julia Budd vs Kaitlin Young’s Fight Record

Budd’s only losses come from the who’s who of women’s mma. She’s lost to Ronda Rousey, Cris Cyborg and Amanda Nunes. No one else has even stood a chance. She’s finished two of her last five fights via TKO.

Young has lost two of her last four via decision. She had a rough run at the Invicta level and nothing about her last few performances show that she can win this fight.

Top Prop Bet Picks for Budd vs Young

Over 2½ Rounds:
-290
Under 2½ Rounds:
+230
Fight Goes to Decision:
-245
Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision:
+175
Budd inside the distance:
+259

Where sportsbooks are allowing it, a Budd inside the distance bet is my pick for this bout. However, that isn’t available everywhere. The Under 2 ½  Rounds prop at $2.30 per dollar wagered lines up with Budd’s last few finishes against similar caliber opponents.

Final Pick for Julia Bud vs Kaitlin Young

I pick the prop bets Under 2 ½ Rounds at +230 or Budd Inside the Distance +259
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Don Madge vs Nathan Williams

Fighter Don Madge Nathan Williams
Odds -700 +460
Age 30 34
Height 6’0’’ 5’11’’
Reach 71’’ 74”
Record 9-3-1 13-7
Submissions/TKO 3 submissions, 5 TKO 4 submissions, 1 TKO

Madge is the strong favorite, giving up three inches of reash and the experience advantage to Nathan Williams.

Madge vs Williams Records and Fight Performances

Willimas has won two decisions over his last three bouts, losing one via knockout. He has been finished four times in his career, twice by submission and twice by knockout.

Madge is on a six fight winning streak, knocking out four opponents and submission Dave Mazany at EFC,

Madge is coming off two wins at UFC in 2018 and 2019. It’s unclear if he’ll continue inside the promotion. This is a huge opportunity for Williams, but it’s likely Madge will run right through him.

Top Prop Bet Picks for Madge vs Williams

Over ½ Rounds:
-145
Under 1½ Rounds:
+115
Madge Inside the Distance:
-160, $0.63

Given Madge’s last two fights were an early finish and a decision, it’s tough to be an over/under prop. Madge’s moneyline pays at $0.14 per dollar wagered. While the inside the distance prop is a significant boost, I’m tentative to bet on a fighter who’s been out for two years.

Final Bet for Don Madge vs Nathan Williams

Don Madge vs Nathan Williams:
Don Madge !

PFL 2021 Wrap Up

Madge, Shields and Loik make a great parlay if you’re looking for more risk and a higher payout. PFL cards have been exciting while still being predictable, which is exactly what I look for as a bettor and fan. Let us know what you want to see more of in the comments below!

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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