PFL Challenger Series #3 Betting Picks and Expert Breakdown

PFL Challenger Series Week 3

PFL has yet another four fight card this Friday for their PFL Challenger Series. We’re breaking down all four fights, giving our best betting pick, assembling the odds, and showing you exactly how we came to our top conclusions.

PFL Challenger Series #3 Main Event: Marina Jindrova vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti 

Jindrova is on a two fight losing streak, most recently to 3-0 Karolina Sobek via submission. Her only win over an opponent with a winning record was in 2018 over 2-1 Angelica Vezzoli. 
Our favorite for the evening is Cavalcanti, who’s undefeated but has faced only debuting fighters with no amatuer MMA background.  

Tale of the Tape for Jindrova vs Cavalcanti 

Fighter Marina Jindrova Jacqueline Cavalcanti 
Age 31 24
Height 5’8’’ NA
Reach/Stance NA NA
Record 3-2 2-0
Submissions/TKO  1/1 0/1
Fighter Training Camp Daily Fitness Štěrboholy Reborn Fight Team 

Jindrova appears to have a high level of amatuer kickboxing experience including several titles. She’s seven years older than Cavalcanti, but we couldn’t confirm a size advantage. 
Reborn fight team has few other pros, while Jindrova looks to be cross training at several facilities, including American Top Team in Poland and a fight camp in Prague. For this bout Jindrova has prioritized strength training. 

Cavalcanti still looks to be the more physically imposing fighter, despite a focus on strength training for Jindrova’s move to 155 pounds.

Betting Odds and Fight Pick 

Bet Available Odds  
Jindrova Money Line -112
Cavalcanti Money Line -108
Over 2 ½ Rounds -170
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +140

With both fighters near even, hovering around -110, we look to the prop bets for any underdog bets. The under feels unlikely, despite both fighters having knockout wins. They are easily the toughest fighters on each other’s records, so going the distance is likely. 

We don’t know anything about Cavalcanti’s submission experience, or the BJJ and wrestling quality of her camp, but we do know Jindrova has submission victory skill. 

Fight Tape for Jindrova vs Cavalcanti

Cavalcanti’s opponent’s have been much smaller than her, despite still struggling in grappling exchanges. She’s won her fights handly, but Jindrova has the right idea preparing for this bout with heavy lifting. 
Jindrova’s losses include Karolina Sobek, a huge featherweight. This bout is at 155 pounds, and Jindrova is small for that weight class, but Cavalcanti isn’t the right size either. Many camps don’t offer the right kind of weight cutting advice for up and coming women’s athletes. 

PFL Challenge #3 Betting Pick

Our betting pick is Marina Jindrova at -112. She has more submission grappling experience, more kickboxing experience and an overall stronger grasp of the basics. Jindrova’s losses have been centered around the opponent being a stronger grappler, and Cavalcanti has plenty to learn. 

PFL Challenger Series #3 Co Main Event: Jackie Cataline vs Evelyn Martins 

Cataline is a debuting fighter, up against the undefeated Brazilian Martins. Cataline was a Team USA wrestler and 2016 USA open champion. She competed at 165 pounds, so she’s perfect for a women’s lightweight tournament. 
Martins is from the prestigious American Top Team, and has won two decisions over the last two years. 

Tale of the Tape for Cataline vs Martins

Fighter Jackie ‘The Hybrid’  Cataline Evelyn ‘Spartan’ Martins
Age 33 19
Height 5’6’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance NA 67’’ 
Record 0-0 2-0
Submissions/TKO  NA 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Gracie Barra Headquarters  ATT
Last Weigh In 165 pounds  135 pounds

Martins is two or three weight classes below Cataline, and when fighting a wrestler that’s a very bad thing. 
I wouldn’t say being 19 is an advantage, and unless she’s some kind of prodigy, she’s probably underprepared for someone who has a lifetime of collegiate wrestling.
Gracie Barra is the perfect place to turna  wrestling phenom into a top tier submission fighter. I fear for Martins’ safety. 

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Odds  
Martins Money Line +110
Cataline Money Line -130
Over 2 ½ Rounds -150
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +120

Martins was the favorite at -450 in her last bout for Titan FC. She was the underdog in her fight with Melissa Croden at +163. She won a split decision over Croden. 
This is Cataline’s first time with an odds history. 
The over looks right given Martins’ ability to survive fights, but we have no way of determining Cataline’s strategy, how quickly she’s coming out of the gate, or any other aspect of her fight work. As a wrestler, she was a powerhouse. 

Fight Tape for Martins, Wrestling Footage of Cataline

In the fight with Croden, Martins looked tough. She’s marching into the fight, landing kicks and body shots. This was a kickboxing match, with almost no grappling from either fighter. Martins stance is square and forward moving. Croden landed quality counter strikes, time and again. 
Cataline wa competing for team USA as recent as 2021. She’s a patient wrestler, with excellent defense, but I’d hope to have seen some more aggression from her. Takedowns are the aspect of wrestling that shines in MMA, and much of the counter wrestling won’t apply to Martins. Still, it’s clear she’s a beast and will easily overpower Martins in the clinch. 

PFL Betting Pick

Our betting pick is the Jackie Cataline money line at -130, a $0.77 payout per dollar wagered on a high level wrestler facing a green MMA fighter. Size is going to play a big role in this fight, and Cataline towers over Martins. 

PFL Challenger Series #3 Main Card: Julia Dorny vs Jeslen Mishelle

Donry is an undefeated pro with a seven fight winning streak spanning her amatuer career, including multiple TKO and submission victories. Mishelle is making her pro debut. She’s an undefeated 5-0 amatuer training out of Syndicate MMA, one of the best schools in the world for clinch fighting and defensive grappling. 

Tale of the Tape for Dorny vs Mishelle 

Fighter Julia Dorny Jeslen ‘The Wrecking Ball’ Mishelle 
Age 32 NA
Height 5’9’’ 5’9’’
Reach/Stance NA NA
Record 2-0 0-0
Amatuer Record  10-5 5-0
(Amatuer and Pro) 
2/4 1/1
Fighter Training Camp Randori Pro (Germany)  Syndicate MMA 

Jeslen has far less experience than Dorny but it’s tough to compare other aspects of their game. They have similar finishing percentages. Syndicate is one of the best schools in the world, while Randori has four active fighters, each of them women, who are struggling to escape the beginning levels of the game. 

Betting Odds for Dorny vs Mishelle

Bet Available   Odds  
Mishelle Money Line +120
Dorny Money Line -140
Over 2 ½ Rounds -160
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +130

With around 30% of each fighter’s finishes coming by submission, the under at +130 is a moderate bet. Still, against better competition, Mishelle has seen a decision, such as her wins over 3-0 Gunther and 5-1 Riley Timmons. 
Dorny has knocked out her last two opponent’s, both of them with losing records, back in 2019. 
I think we’ll see a more competitive bout between these two. 

Fight tape for Dorny vs Mishelle

Dorny is a decent wrestler, and finds her first takedown inside ninety seconds of her first pro bout with Santana Ramos. I wouldn’t say she got the knockout, more of a stoppage from strikes because Ramos had no idea how to grapple in any capacity. 
Her second fight with Tatunashvili is slightly better, but she towers over the opponent. Again, Dorny wins because the opponent can not grapple. 
Mishelle’s wins have been similar, grappling heavy showings. It’s clear from the fight tape that Dorny is a bit bigger, even at featherweight, and will likely fill out the 155 pound weight division. 
Our final betting pick is the Over 2 ½ Rounds prop at -160. These two fighters will grapple one another out. No telling who will win the top position, but either way I see a decision victory. 

PFL Challenger Series #3 Main Card: Michelle Montague vs Olivia Parker

Montague is another debuting pro, with a 10-2 amatuer record. Her only losses were to the same undefeated amatuer Sabrina Laurentina De Sousa. She’s been cross training just about everywhere and brings a lot to the table against the much older Parker. 
She faces Olivia Parker of Knoxville, who’s recent step up in competition was met with back to back losses. Parker took to a stunning nine fight winning streak with eight finishes before losing via back to back submissions. 

Tale of the Tape for Parker vs Montague 

Fighter Olivia ‘Phoenix Parker  Michelle ‘The Wild One’ Montague 
Age 40 28
Height 5’10’’ NA
Reach/Stance 68’’ NA
Record 4-2 11-2 (Amatuer) 
Submissions/TKO  3/1 ( 1/4 Amatuer) 7/2 (Amatuer) 
Fighter Training Camp Knoxville Martial Arts, FBS, other  MataMata, City Kickboxing, ATT

There’s no doubt that Parker is dangerous, but these fighters have similar finishing stats and Michelle is twelve years younger. ‘Phoenix’ has been fighting since 2016, starting her career at 34. Knoxville isn’t known for its MMA schools, but she trains with UFC level fighters like Ovince St. Preux and Shanna the Shanimal Young. Parker is at home with several of the UFC’s most exciting female athletes. 
Michelle has been just about everywhere, spending time with multiple fight camps, most recently soaking up sessions at ATT in Florida in preparation for this fight. 

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Odds  
Parker Money Line +360
Montague Money Line -460
Over 1 ½ Rounds +105
Under 1 ½ Rounds  -135

Parker was a massive underdog in her fight with Cat Zingano, a +700. She is up nearly 100 points since opening bets against Montague. I’m surprised to see her as such a big underdog, given her history of strong finishes. The under playing a strong favorite may be our best bet, considering that Parker lost twice in the first round, but has won six fights in the first round. 
Contrary to that, are Michelle’s only losses, both coming by way of decision. 

Fight Tape for Parker vs Montague

Montague was overpowered and outwrestled in her losses to De Sousa. De Sousa had an excellent kickboxing centered strategy, one that made Montague look stiff on the feet, despite a clear reach advantage. Montague needed the takedown, and simply couldn’t get it. 
Zingano was able to capture the takedown against Zingano, but not without plenty of work. Zingano’s grappling is clearly stronger than Parker’s and Montague’s, so it’s an unfair comparison to what Montague can do to Paker. 

Betting Pick for PFL Challenge #3

Our final betting pick is the Over 1 ½ Rounds prop at +105. Parker is much stronger than many give her credit for. I don’t see Montague running her over, especially given her last few performances. Montague’s takedowns will mature with age, but until then, Parker could easily take this fight to deep waters. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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