PFL Challenger Series 6 Odds and Predictions

PFL Challenger Series Week 6

We’ve broken down the stats and odds for all four fights of the PFL Challenger Series 6. This heavyweight tournament, taking place on March 25th, 2022 at 9:00 PM ET features four undefeated heavyweights and six prop betting markets. Here are our top betting picks! Scroll for a detailed MMA breakdown of all four fights, why we think each fighter will win, and tips on MMA betting

  • Nunes vs Lewis ‘fight doesn’t go to the distance’ at -300
  • Billy Swanson Money Line at +250
  • Adam Keresh Money Line at -215
  • Daiqwon Buckley Money Line at +155


PFL Challenger Series 6 Main Event: Nunes vs Lewis 

Ex-UFC fighter Lewis is a favorite to take the heavyweight tournament this year. He faces an up and coming finisher in Nunes, who’s only loss is to Bellator legend Rafael Lovato Jr. 
Lewis lost three bouts in the UFC before being released, though he was the favorite for three fights running, and finally lost as an underdog +104 to Trevin Giles in 2020. 

Lewis appears to have gained some mass. He looks great at heavyweight.

Tale of the Tape for Nunes vs Lewis  

Fighter Bevon Lewis Marcelo Nunes
Age 30 33
Height 6’3’’ 6’3’’
Reach/Stance 79’’ 76’’
Record 7-3 7-1
Submissions/TKO  0/3 3/2
Fighter Training Camp Jackson-Wink Cellar Gym, Various 
Last Weigh in  226.6 237

Lewis fought at light heavyweight in the UFC and Nunes should come in the much larger fighter. His BJJ background includes wins over several high level professional grapplers. Nunes has lost his only opportunity to face a top tier MMA fighter, and Lewis is clearly the more tested of the two. 

PFL Challenger Series 6 Betting Odds

Bet Available at Odds  
Lewis Money Line +115
Nunes Money Line -145
Over 1 ½ Rounds +120
Under 1 ½ Rounds  -150
Goes the Distance ‘No’ -300
Lewis By TKO  +300
Nunes by Submission +200
Lewis in Round 1  +600
Nunes in Round 2  +550
Nunes -3.5 Points -110
Lewis inside the Distance +225
Nunes inside the Distance  +100

Oddsmakers see a Nunes submission finish. Lewis is easily the best striker Nunes has ever faced, and I’m surprised to see such a strong lean toward the submission fighter. 
Lewis has never been submitted, and has only seen four career decisions. Nunes has never seen a decision win or lose, and his KO loss to Lovato Jr. is concerning for his money line. 

PFL Challenger Series 6 Prediction: Lewis vs Nunes 

Lewis is still a rising star and young athlete. He needs more cage experience, and his entry into the UFC was early in my opinion. Nunes is a solid submission specialist, and one of the biggest factors here is weight, where Lewis has come up two weight classes for this tournament. 
Our betting pick is the prop ‘fight doesn’t go to the distance’ at -300. This is Nunes’ fight, and he’ll either get the submission or get knocked out trying. 

PFL Challenger Series 6 Co-Main Event: Lemos vs Swanson

Lemos is undefeated, but both fighters were underdogs in the PFL Challenger Series 6 against their first opponent. They’ve been matched together as a replacement fight. Lemos has a 100% finishing rate and Swanson’s fresh off a brutal first round Bellator loss. 

Tale of the Tape for Lemos vs Swanson

Fighter Giacomo Lemos  Billy Swanson
Age 32 28
Height 6’3’’ 6’2’’
Record 7-0 4-2
Submissions/TKO  1/5 1/2
Fighter Training Camp Rangel Farias Team Chattanooga MMA 
Last Weigh in  225 265

Swanson is the biggest man in the tournament. He’s a hefty 265 and often cuts to make the weight class despite his 6’2’’ frame. Between these two fighters only one bout has ended in a decision win or lose. At first glance, this fight is a blowout for Lemos, but Swansonwas a decorated amatuer with a 9-1 record and multiple submission finishes. Still, dominating the local scene isn’t going to put you ahead of a black belt in BJJ when it comes to grappling. 

PFL Challenger Series 6 Betting Odds

Bet Available at Odds  
Swanson Money Line +250
Lemos Money Line -300

Since the fight was a replacement bout, there are no prop bets available. It’s unfortunate, because if an under or fight doesn’t go the distance prop because available, I’d take it. 

PFL Challenger Series 6 Prediction: Swanson vs Lemos

Lemos has only faced mid level and losing record opponents over his last five fights. His wins over other Brazilian grapplers mean little to me. The majority of these fighters aren’t proper heavyweights, and his last bout was competitive at 237 pounds. 
Our betting pick is Billy Swanson at +250. He’s easily the strongest finisher Lemos has ever faced and can use his weight to take top position for a decision win. 

PFL Challenger Series 6: Keresh vs Johnson

Keresh has a 100% finishing ratio with three fights in Bellator. He faces Chad Johsnon, a fighter who struggled at the DWCS level, but has demolished his KOTC and LFA competition. This fight will be a slugfest, with Johsnon never having a fight that didn’t end in a knockout win or lose. It feels like PFL contracted not the best heavyweights around, but the most exciting. 

Tale of the Tape for Keresh vs Johnson

Fighter Adam Keresh  Chad Johnson
Age NA 35
Height 6’2’’ 6’2’’
Record 4-0 6-3
Submissions/TKO  0/4 0/6
Fighter Training Camp Team Bert  Resurgence MMA 
Last Weigh in  237 223

Keresh is approximately 32 by our sources. Johnson is old for the tournament, and his recent TKO losses show that he’s in decline. He’s the smaller fighter of the two, and size plays a big factor in heavyweight tournaments. 

PFL Challenger Series 6 Betting Odds

Bet Available at Odds  
Keresh Money Line -215
Johnson Money Line +175
Over 1 ½ Rounds +220
Under 1 ½ Rounds  -280
Goes the Distance ‘No’ -800
Keresh By TKO  +100
Johnson by TKO +215
Keresh in Round 1  +165
Johnson in Round 1 +350

Our top bet is the ‘ ‘Goes the Distance ‘No’’ at -800 but we’re taking a closer look to see if a more lucrative prop makes sense. Avoid the points bets and decision props at all costs. If these fighters were going the distance, there would be no way you could predict it. Only one of their fights falls into the Over 1 ½ rounds payout condition. 

PFL Challenger Series 6 Prediction: Keresh vs Johsnon

In watching Keresh’s performances you’ll find that he has lazer accurate striking as well as patience. In fact, the more fight tape I watch, the more I believe he can even drag this thing out for an easy decision win. He took out Vladimir ‘Baby Fedor’ Fedin in his last fight with a singular head kick from the outside that was far too fast to come from a heavyweight. 
Johnson’s best performance was over the 6-1 Caylyn Hull in 2019. None of the other fighters he defeated had winning records. Even fighters like the 9-5 Tomar Washington gave him trouble and knocked him out, despite being 42 at the time of their bout. 
I don’t see a way he loses the fight. Our betting pick is Adam Keresh at -215. 

PFL Challenger Series 6: Cunningham vs Buckley 

Cunningham is another Jackson-Wink fighter that hs KO victories, moving quickly up through the ranks. Buckley has an amatuer submission win but little experience. He defeated former NBA player Royce White in their pro debut, and trains at Sanford MMA, one of the nations top MMA schools. 

Tale of the Tape for Cunningham vs Buckley 

Fighter Jon Cunningham Daiqwon Buckley
Age 26 25
Height 6’0’’ 5’10’’
Record 1-0 1-0
Submissions/TKO  0/1 0/0
Fighter Training Camp Jackson-Wink Sanford MMA
Last Weigh in  230 262

Buckley may be the dark horse of this tournament. He’s a large man with quality wrestling. Cunningham has three total minutes of cage experience, racking up quick knockouts in his first fights. I’m concerned with how a decision with the much larger Buckley will look. 

PFL Challenger Series 6 Betting Odds

Bet Available at Odds  
Cunningham Money Line -185
Buckley Money Line +155
Over 1 ½ Rounds -145
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +115
Goes the Distance ‘No’ -200
Buckley By Points  +350
Cunningham by TKO +100
Buckley in Round 3 +1200
Cunningham in Round 1 +200
Goes to Decision +160

Oddsmakers see a Cunningham knockout early, but the odds are close. Buckley has the advantage in decision props and submission props. 
The under props are a bet on Cunningham and the over props a bet on Buckley. The larger fighter is going to wear on Cunningham as the fight goes on. A quick look at Cunningham’s fight tape shows he’s still green when it comes to grappling, and he gets tossed by a man 40 pounds lighter than Buckley in his last bout. 

PFL Challenger Series 6 Prediction: Cunningham vs Buckley 

We took the time to study the last two bouts for both Buckley and Cunningham. Cunningham was taken down early, but popped back up quickly. He had quality striking at range, and used athleticism to out work his opponent to top position. 
Buckley spoiled Royce White’s debut with a decision win. Buckley won the takedown in each round, and was able to hold Royce down for control time. I’m unconvinced the 30 pounds lighter Cunningham will be able to get back up. 
Our betting pick is Daiqwon Buckley at +155. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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