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Predicting MLB Players Home Run Totals

MLB Home Run Totals Betting Prediction - Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees

There isn’t a prettier site in baseball than a majestic blast over the wall into the seats, fountain, concourse, body of water or whatever lies beyond the outfield fence.

That is, of course, if you’re on the right side of the long ball.

The home run is still one of the most exciting and adrenaline-fueling events in a baseball game and for many fans they are the reason they pay hard-earned money to get into the ballpark.

Continuing with my series of over/unders when it comes to MLB’s most popular traditional stats, it’s time to dissect the home run total of some of baseball top power hitters.

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Like I am doing with all pieces, I am assuming full health for these players unless the player in question as an injury history that we need to take into consideration.

*NOTE: I will be limiting these picks to the first 40 hitters listed at MyBookie. The full list can be found on the website.

Let’s get right to it!

Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees)

Over 39.5
-120
Under 39.5
-110

2018 Home Run Total: 38

After blasting 59 homers en route to NL MVP honors in 2017 while with the Marlins, Stanton’s total fell by 21 homers despite moving to a move homer-friendly stadium at Yankee stadium than the pitcher-friendly confines of Marlins Park in Miami.

It wasn’t the smoothest of seasons for Stanton in his first year in the Bronx, and he dealt with strikeout issues that had Yankees fans booing him at various points in the year.

However, 2019 is a new year and I think Stanton is in for a dynamite 2019 season on a Yankees team that has every right to have World Series aspirations. Give me the over.

My Pick
OVER 39.5

Aaron Judge (Yankees)

Over 39.5
+105
Under 39.5
-135

2018 Home Run Total: 27

Aaron Judge burst onto the scene with 52 long balls in 2017 before dealing with injuries that limited him to just 27 a year later.

I think it’s going to be a great all-round season in the Bronx. The new-look pitching staff is going to their thing, the bullpen could be historically good, and I believe we will see at least 40 home runs from each of Stanton and Judge. At excellent odds, I’ll take the over here as well.

My Pick
OVER 39.5

Khris Davis (A’s)

Over 39.5
-125
Under 39.5
-105

2018 Home Run Total: 48

Last year’s home run king, Krush Davis launched 48 bombs in 2018 after hitting 43 in 2017 and 42 in 2016. The dude is simply destroying baseballs and he is doing so in a pitcher-friendly environment in Oakland.

Can he hit 40 in four straight years though? It’s going to be a tough task. He’s hit .247 four years in a row, an average that isn’t quite good enough to have pitchers pitch around him unless they need to avoid the home run ball. I love the guy, but I think I am going to go under the total, but it should be close.

My Pick
OVER 39.5

J.D. Martinez (Red Sox)

Over 39.5
+105
Under 39.5
-135

2018 Home Run Total: 43

For a while it was Martinez and Davis going toe-to-toe for baseball’s home run crown before Davis went on a late-season surge that left JD in the dust.

However, this guy has one of the most powerful swings in the game and he’s a lot of fun to watch. Like most great home run hitters, he uses the whole field, although right and center field at Fenway are daunting tasks. He still has the monster though, and I am predicting another ‘monster’ season from Martinez himself.

My Pick
OVER 39.5

Mike Trout (Angels)

Over 38.5
-115
Under 38.5
-115

2018 Home Run Total: 39

Trout needed just 140 games to reach 39 long balls last season while he needed just 114 to launch 33 in 2017.

His totals have otherwise been a little up-and-down as he hit 41 in 2015 but just 29 the following year with full health. I don’t see Trout as blowing past this total, but I could also see him coming up a couple short. I’ll give the best player in the world the benefit of the doubt, however.

My Pick
OVER 38.5

Nolan Arenado (Rockies)

Over 37.5
-115
Under 37.5
-115

2018 Home Run Total: 38

Arenado set a record for an arbitration salary this offseason before inking a big-money extension to play his prime years in a Rockies uniform.

He’ll be fired up to earn his money in 2019, and the Rockies’ star third baseman as hit 38 or more home runs in three of the last four years including two of 40 or more. He’s as durable as they get and I like his chances of eclipsing this total while calling the homer-friendly Coors Field home.

My Pick
OVER 37.5

Joey Gallo (Rangers)

Over 37.5
-125
Under 37.5
-105

2018 Home Run Total: 40

Gallo’s at-bats end with a strikeout, walk or home run more often than not and he’s been very consistent through the first two full season of his big league career with 40 homers in 2017 and 41 more in 2018.

He’s going to put his name into the strikeout leader hat to be sure, but he’s also likely to put his name into the home run leader hat as well. With a homer-friendly park at his disposal in Texas, Gallo should be able to get over this total for the third straight year.

My Pick
OVER 37.5

Nelson Cruz (Twins)

Over 36.5
+100
Under 36.5
-130

2018 Home Run Total: 37

Nelson Cruz is once again on the move, this time to Minnesota where the Twins loaded up in the power department in the offseason.

While he’s one of the most powerful bats in baseball over the last several seasons, hitting a career-high 44 homers in 2015, Cruz has also seen his homer total drop in each of the last two seasons. While I think he gets close, I’m going to side with father time and pick Cruz to fall under this total.

My Pick
UNDER 36.5

Rhys Hoskins (Phillies)

Over 34.5
-135
Under 34.5
+105

2018 Home Run Total: 34

Hoskins didn’t waste any time making an immediate impact in the big leagues as he slugged 18 long balls in just 50 games after making his debut in the 2017 season before launching 34 dingers a year later.

The focus will be on Bryce Harper, but Hoskins could be a sneaky candidate to pace baseball in dinger if he stays healthy which he did last year appearing in 153 games. I’ll take the over with confidence here.

My Pick
OVER 34.5

Bryce Harper (Phillies)

Over 35.5
-130
Under 35.5
+100

2018 Home Run Total: 34

Harper’s career has been up and down in recent years as his home run total over the last four years are 42, 24, 29, 34.

I wrote a piece on Harper betting specials that were listed at Bovada, and their home run total for him was 33.5. I took that under at +155 odds, and we are once again getting value with the under here as well. I expect a good season, but I have to remain consistent.

My Pick
UNDER 35.5

Matt Olson (A’s)

Over 32.5
-125
Under 32.5
-105

2018 Home Run Total: 29

The total is a notable step forward from the career-high 29 homers Olson hit in his first full season in the big leagues in 2018.

He launched a whopping 24 long balls in just 59 games in 2017 to put his name on the map, and it appears his home run prowess is here to stay. Can he outduel teammate Davis? That will be though, but has shown an elite ability to hit for power to the pull side. I’ll hit the over here.

My Pick
OVER 32.5

Manny Machado (Padres)

Over 32.5
-115
Under 32.5
-115

2018 Home Run Total: 37

Machado tied a career high with 37 homers in 2018 and he’s hit the over on this total in each of the last four seasons.

However, Petco Park in San Diego is just not favorable at all to the home run ball. I would expect Machado’s double total to rise this upcoming season, but Petco is just too hard to consistently play long ball in and I think he will struggle to get to 30 in his new digs.

My Pick
UNDER 32.5

Francisco Lindor (Indians)

Over 31.5
+105
Under 31.5
-135

2018 Home Run Total: 38

Lindor enjoyed an MVP-caliber 2018 season that saw him lace 38 long balls into the chairs, however his 2019 season isn’t off to a great start.

Lindor suffered a calf strain in February and he will likely miss a week or two to begin the season. While not a huge deal since we have 6.5 homers to work with, calf injuries can be tricky, as will returning from one in the cold weather in Cleveland in April and May.

As a result, I think I will head under the total here as the red flags are aplenty.

My Pick
UNDER 31.5

Trevor Story (Rockies)

Over 31.5
-125
Under 31.5
-105

2018 Home Run Total: 37

Story’s home run total jumped from 24 all the way to 37 in 2018 with the aid of 100 extra plate appearances than the year before.

While we can’t be exactly sure of which season is closer to his norm at this point, I do believe can make a turn and can at least approach his 2018 total. With some wiggle room to work with between that number and the total, I’ll hit the over here.

My Pick
OVER 31.5

Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves)

Over 30.5
-125
Under 30.5
-105

2018 Home Run Total: 26

Keep in mind that Acuna was held back for service time manipulation purposes last season and didn’t make his MLB debut until April 25th. He played in just 111 games as a result, but still belted 26 homers.

What’s really interesting about Acuna is that he hit 18 homers in exactly 111 games between Double-A and Triple-A in 2017. While he was easily on pace to get over this total last year, his history of home run hitting in the minors isn’t all that great, although his young age has something to do with that.

At the end of the day, I will ride the over here given what he put on display last season.

My Pick
OVER 30.5

Jesus Aguilar (Brewers)

Over 29.5
+100
Under 29.5
-130

2018 Home Run Total: 35

Aguilar’s season was a little two-sided.

On the first side, he hit 24 homers in the first half of the season in 86 games, but followed that up with only 11 in 62 games in the second half.

Whether the home run derby curse or the wear and tear of his first full season in the big leagues dragged his production, he limped down the stretch in September.

This is a tough one. We should probably expect some regression, which the total is giving us, so we need to decide how much. I don’t think he will regress enough to fall under this total, especially with what he showed as a part-time player in 2017.

My Pick
OVER 29.5

Alex Bregman (Astros)

Over 29.5
+105
Under 29.5
-135

2018 Home Run Total: 31

Bregman broke out with an MVP-caliber season in just his second full season in the big leagues last year, smacking 31 long balls in the process.

He projects to hit for plenty more power moving forward, especially in the doubles department. His numbers across the board are likely due to for a dip, and there isn’t much breathing room for his homer total to full here before it falls under the total. I’ll follow that direction.

My Pick
UNDER 29.5

Christian Yelich (Brewers)

Over 29.5
+115
Under 29.5
-145

2018 Home Run Total: 36

Yelich smacked a career-high 36 homers while taking home NL MVP honors in the 2018 season.

That said, his previous home run total was just 21 set in 2016 with the Marlins. We can attribute some of the increase to venue shift from Marlins Park to the hitter-friendly Miller Park in Milwaukee, but almost doubling a previous career-high is a rare sight to see.

I can see a notable drop here, but just how far is the question. I’ll give Yelich the benefit of the doubt to fall no more than six homers, especially with the odds provided.

My Pick
OVER 29.5

Anthony Rizzo (Cubs)

Over 29.5
-105
Under 29.5
-125

2018 Home Run Total: 25

It wasn’t a great season for Rizzo or the Cubs last year as both player and team fell short of expectations.

Both player and team figure to bounce back this season, however, and Rizzo hit exactly 32 home run in three of the previous four years and 31 in the other. I think he will get back to that number again this season.

My Pick
OVER 29.5

Jose Ramirez (Indians)

Over 29.5
-115
Under 29.5
-115

2018 Home Run Total: 39

Ramirez is another AL MVP candidate as his uprising has been shocking after a slow start to his big league career.

His home run total went from 11 to 29 from 2016 to 2017 and then all the way to 39 in  2018. He benefited from a huge 16.9% HR/FB rate last season, however despite a modest increase in hard contact from 2017.

Can he fall more than nine homers short of his excellent 2018 season? I don’t think so. I’ll take the over.

My Pick
OVER 29.5

Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals)

Over 29.5
-125
Under 29.5
-105

2018 Home Run Total: 33

A park shift from the hitter-friendly Chase Field to Busch Stadium in St. Louis isn’t likely to help Goldschmidt’s home run total in 2019.

That said, only one time in the last five fully healthy seasons has Goldschmidt fallen short of the 30 home run mark. The Cardinals traded away from nice assets to acquire the slugger, and I don’t think he will let them down this season.

My Pick
OVER 29.5

Edwin Encarnacion (Mariners)

Over 29.5
-125
Under 29.5
-105

2018 Home Run Total: 32

Encarnacion had truly been one of the best home run hitters in baseball since his breakout 2012 season, however his home run total fell all the way to 32 last year after hitting at least 38 in each of the previous three seasons.

The park shift to Safeco Field in Seattle doesn’t help his cause, but we’ve seen Nelson Cruz play longball there at an age a couple of years higher than Edwin, so it can be done.

I don’t think he’s leaving the 30-homer club quite yet, so I’ll take the over.

My Pick
OVER 29.5

Mookie Betts (Red Sox)

Over 29.5
-115
Under 29.5
-115

2018 Home Run Total: 32

Betts took home AL MVP honor last season thanks in part to his 32 home runs, but keep in mind he played in just 136 games and had only 614 plate appearances at his disposal.

Betts figures to be healthy for the whole season this time around which will give him a much longer chance to hit the 30-homer club for the third time in the last four years. I think he gets it done.

My Pick
OVER 29.5

Jose Abreu (White Sox)

Over 29.5
+110
Under 29.5
-140

2018 Home Run Total: 22

As reliable as he was for the first four seasons of his MLB career, Abreu’s production in all offensive areas cratered last season, including his home run total.

He had previously hit at least 30 in three of the four years prior to 2018, and he appeared in just 128 games last season as well.

At just 32 years old, Abreu is a prime bounce-back candidate given his production prior to 2018, so let’s take advantage of some quality odds and hit the over.

My Pick
OVER 29.5

Max Muncy (Dodgers)

Over 29.5
+110
Under 29.5
-140

2018 Home Run Total: 35

Muncy was one of the best stories in baseball last season as he mashed 35 homers in just 481 plate appearances while his .319 ISO was the best in the big leagues among players with at least 400 plate appearances.

The concern with Muncy is playing time. Even though he clobbered left-handers as well last season, David Freese is likely to eat into his at-bats against lefties this year, so Muncy may not see much more action in 2019 than he did in his breakout 2018 season.

He also takes a ton of walks, which not a lot of power hitters do. As much as I enjoyed last season, I’ll have to slip under the total this time around.

My Pick
UNDER 29.5

Eugenio Suarez (Reds)

Over 28.5
-115
Under 28.5
-115

2018 Home Run Total: 34

Another breakout player from 2018, Suarez has been everything the Reds could have hoped for when they traded for him from the Tigers prior to the 2015 season.

His production in the home run department has gone from 13 to 21 all the way to the 34 he belted last season. At just 27 he’s entering his prime, and his home park of Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati yields plenty of jacks. Over all-day here.

My Pick
OVER 28.5

Charlie Blackmon (Rockies)

Over 28.5
-115
Under 28.5
-115

2018 Home Run Total: 29

Blackmon has hit the over on this total in three straight years with a pair of 29-homer seasons and a 37-homer year from 2017 mixed in.

He’s not your typical leadoff hitter given his power and Coors Field certainly helps. That said, he’s now 32 and I think he will lose some power this year, especially since his 17.7% HR/FB rate last year is a full 4% above his career norm. I’ll take the under.

My Pick
UNDER 28.5

Javier Baez (Cubs)

Over 27.5
-125
Under 27.5
-105

2018 Home Run Total: 34

After posting a career-high with 23 homers in 2017, Baez smashed that number with 34 taters in a breakout 2018 season.

He is an all-or-nothing guy as he doesn’t walk much and he still strikes out a lot. The jet stream out to left field at Wrigley helps, but Baez is due for some regression in the home department and I think he’ll fall under this total.

My Pick
UNDER 27.5

George Springer (Astros)

Over 27.5
-105
Under 27.5
-125

2018 Home Run Total: 22

Will the real George Springer please stand up?

Springer blasted 34 homers in 2017 but fell all the way to 22 a season ago. He still enjoyed an excellent season, but just what type of home run hitter are we dealing with?

He’ll hit more than the 22, but can he hit six more? I think he can and I will hit the over on this one.

My Pick
OVER 27.5

Gary Sanchez (Yankees)

Over 27.5
-105
Under 27.5
-125

2018 Home Run Total: 18

The Yankees set an MLB record in home runs last season and they did it with just 18 from Sanchez who dealt with injuries as part of a dreadful season.

As a catcher, Sanchez is going to get his days off, similar to the 122 games he played in 2017 when he hit 33 homers.

The fact is I am not even thinking twice about this one as I feel extremely confident in the over and he will indeed hit the 30-barrier again this season.

My Pick
OVER 27.5

Juan Soto (Nationals)

Over 27.5
-115
Under 27.5
-115

2018 Home Run Total: 22

Soto was called up to the big leagues in May and made his debut halfway through the month, and no one could have expected what came next.

He drilled 22 homers in just 116 games at the age of 19. He too has an extremely short minor league history to gauge, but he did hit seven homers in 15 games at High-A ball where he began the 2018 season.

However, he’s still just 20 and this is a lofty number. Not to be a buzzkill, but I’m heading under this total.

My Pick
UNDER 27.5

Justin Upton (Angels)

Over 27.5
-115
Under 27.5
-115

2018 Home Run Total: 30

Upton may not be living up to the hype of a first-overall draft pick, but he’s very consistent with his numbers by season’s end.

He belted 30 dingers last year, the third straight year he at least hit that mark. He’s also hit at least 28 five times in his career. This one is close, but I will go with the over.

My Pick
OVER 27.5

Matt Carpenter (Cardinals)

Over 26.5
-115
Under 26.5
-115

2018 Home Run Total: 36

Carpenter was a little bit of a late bloomer but he’s fully established as one of the top all-round bats in baseball.

Carpenter blasted a career-high of 36 bombs last season – the only time in his career he has hit more than 28. Without a history of consistent 30-homer seasons, I’m going to head under the total.

My Pick
UNDER 26.5

Kris Bryant (Cubs)

Over 28.5
-115
Under 28.5
-115

2018 Home Run Total: 13

The Cubs disappointed as a whole last year and Bryant’s injury-plagued season followed suit.

That said, a big bounce back is in order. Bryant reached a career-high of 39 long balls in 2016 and hit 26 in his rookie season in 2015 even after being sent to Triple-A to start the season. I love the over here.

My Pick
OVER 28.5

Travis Shaw (Brewers)

Over 26.5
-105
Under 26.5
-125

2018 Home Run Total: 32

Shaw hit at least 31 homers for the second straight year last year and has been dynamite for a Brewers team that traded for him in exchange for a relief pitcher.

There isn’t much to suggest Shaw is going to regress this season as his 2018 production was very similar to his breakout 2017. I’m going over.

My Pick
OVER 26.5

Cody Bellinger (Dodgers)

Over 25.5
-125
Under 25.5
-105

2018 Home Run Total: 25

After raking in the 2017 season to the tune of 39 homers in just 132 games, Bellinger inevitably regressed in 2018, but by quite a bit in the form of 14 homers in 30 more games.

That said, this isn’t a hard one for me. Bellinger may not hit 39 again, but if all he needs to do to get over the total is hit one more homer than a disappointing 2018 season, then I’m game.

My Pick
OVER 25.5

Justin Smoak (Blue Jays)

Over 25.5
-115
Under 25.5
-115

2018 Home Run Total: 25

Smoak actually saw very similar regression to Bellinger last year as he hit 13 fewer homers than the 38 he clubbed in 2017.

Smoaks’ position at first base is not in jeopardy at the moment in the Jays’ rebuild, but I don’t have as much confidence as I used to in his power. Sign me up for the under.

My Pick
UNDER 25.5

Kyle Schwarber (Cubs)

Over 24.5
-125
Under 24.5
-105

2018 Home Run Total: 26

The oddsmakers are projecting regression from Schwarber even those his 26 homers from 2018 was a regression from the 30 he hit the season prior.

His left-handed bat doesn’t play well at Wrigley, however, Schwarber has serious raw power and I don’t think it will even take a career-year for him to get over this total.

My Pick
UNDER 24.5

Trey Mancini (Orioles)

Over 24.5
-105
Under 24.5
-125

2018 Home Run Total: 24

For the second straight year Mancini hit 24 home runs and he’s now one of the leftover pieces on what will be a terrible Orioles club this season.

All we are looking for is just one more homer to get over the total here, but given how bearish I am on the Orioles as a whole I am going to go under the total.

My Pick
UNDER 24.5

Mike Moustakas (Brewers)

Over 24.5
-125
Under 24.5
-105

2018 Home Run Total: 28

After cracking 28 bombs last season between the Royals and Brewers, Moustakas re-signed with Milwaukee in the offseason.

However, he will also be adjusting to a new position as he will be used primarily at second base in 2019. Position changes can be difficult on the bat as well, however, given the hitter-friendly confines of Miller Park in Milwaukee, I’m still going over on this total.

My Pick
OVER 24.5