Both the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers are favorites by more than a touchdown.
If you want our writers’ expert opinion on the outcome of these games, here’s a link to our NFL picks section.
Today, I want to propose some prop betting opportunities for you. Some are fun and a couple of others are a bit more serious with considerable value.
I will let you know which is which as we make our way through the article.
Before we get into these, let’s quickly recap how it went the last time we picked some prop bets for the NFL Playoffs over Wild Card Weekend.
I truly enjoy trying to find the value in them, though. To me, that’s even more interesting than seeing how they play out.
Our only loss was the over/under on the number of wild card teams winning. It was set at 1.5 and I foolishly took the under. The Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans made me look rather foolish.
We also took the under 14.5 points as the biggest winning differential. The divisional round saw 3 out of the 4 games break that barrier but the largest deficit at the final whistle was just 8 in any of the four wild card games. That one was good for (+120).
We also had the state of Virginia’s own Russell Wilson as the leading passer at (+500) and the best player in the NFL in 2020 did not disappoint! Derrick Henry led in rushing yards, of course, for a nice 1.5 to 1 payout.
Finally, we went under 33.5 for the most points scored by any team at (-120) and the Vikings led the way with 26.
This week’s betting odds are brought to us by BetOnline.AG.
Let’s not waste any time. This weekend is going to be massive for the sporting world with the return of Conor McGregor as well as NFL Championship Sunday.
Let’s pick some props!
Derrick Henry Rushes for More than 180 Yards
I had to take a look at this one simply for value’s sake.
In the two playoff games this season, Travis has rushed for 195 and 182 yards. That was against two of the NFL’s top defenses as well.
In the Titans final regular season game, Travis put up over 200 yards. Does this mean he will be tired? Well, people have been saying that for a couple of weeks now and he just keeps on running through tacklers like they’re Pop Warner players.
180 is pushing it and Kansas City’s offense seems to be peaking right now so some signs are pointing towards Tennessee being forced to pass the ball to catch up.
The Ravens were the best team in the league all year long but look how that one turned out.
And the Pats game too? KC has one of the worst rushing defenses in the league this season and Tennessee has shown nearly a higher commitment to the run in the second half of the season including the playoffs than the Navy Midshipmen.
The (-1000) thing is crazy to me, though.
These two teams played each other already this season and even though Patrick Mahomes had a great game, Travis Henry rushed for 200+ leading his team to a victory.
The Titans did really lean on him late against Baltimore last week. I know hindsight is just that but I thought they could and should have given him a break in the 4th quarter.
I wouldn’t push all of your chips into the center of the table on this one but it’s worth a 20 spot to make a bill.
Hey, I get it. The bookmakers clearly think the Chiefs are going to have a two-score lead for most of the ball game which will likely force the Tennessee Titans into many obvious passing downs.
I don’t think it will be a massive lead throughout the contest even if it is one for the Chiefs and I don’t think the Titans will be that quick to abandon their game plan.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ strength on defense is actually pass defense too.
This number really surprised me. Even with a record of 13-4 and perhaps the most explosive offense in the NFL, Andy Reid’s team only allowed 228 passing yards per game this year.
I thought that number would be higher, especially when you think about the fact that they outscored opponents by two or more touchdowns in 7 games this year including last week’s win over the Texans.
Ryan Tannehill hasn’t thrown for more yards than Henry rushed in a while. It’s been 5 weeks since that happened.
This bet is not a slam dunk, guys, but the value is easily on King Henry.
Most Points Scored by One Team
Wow, that’s a lot.
The Niners and the Chiefs are the two potential candidates we are looking at here. Their respective opponents rank in the top ten in points allowed at just south of 20 per game, though.
It’s the playoffs, though.
Those are a lot of points. We know the Titans will be running the ball a lot eating up the clock with King Henry, and doing their best to keep the ball out of the hands of Patrick Mahomes.
No rain or snow is forecasted for either game right now and there should be minimal wind. The fair conditions are not on our side here but I still like the under bet.
San Francisco 49ers Total Sacks
The Green Bay Packers pass the ball around 60% of the time which is higher than the league average. They will also probably be losing which should raise that number a few percentage points.
The Niners had 48 sacks during the regular season which is good for 4 per game. Aaron Rodgers and the Pack ranked 10th in the league in sacks allowed.
I like the fact that the 49ers will probably be winning but A-A-Ron is very slick. If the number was 3.5 and the under had even money, I think I would take it.
It will probably be right on 3, though, until Bosa brings him to the ground late in the 4th.
Most Passing Yards
Okay, this is essentially a two-horse race.
Tannehill is not going to outgun Patrick Mahomes. I just do not see that happening at all.
Even if Tennessee is winning by two scores for most of the game like they did last week in Baltimore, that only means KC will keep throwing the ball.
The San Francisco 49ers have the best pass defense in the NFL so Rodgers hitting this mark is unlikely.
That leaves Jimmy G but SF was only 18th in the league during the regular season in passing offense.
The (-140) is not that much juice to pay for Mahomes here. We know about his weapons as well as the genius of Andy Reid.
Take this one to the house.
Now you’re set. You have the link to our picks for NFL’s Championship Sunday.
Make sure you bet from this article on this week’s props. Your bases are covered.
I like the Patrick Mahomes bet here as the top passer.
It’s not going to be that cold this week in KC and minimal wind. That kid can launch pee-pee missiles standing on his head gargling peanut butter in a hailstorm, though.
The 37 points for any team seems like a lot and maybe the bookies know something we don’t. The number is so big, it appears to be a trap but I will trust in the Titans defense and the preparation/adjustments of head coach Mike Vrabel.
As far as the bets on Travis Henry go, I am not 100% confident. Maybe KC completely sells out against the run and accepts a shootout between their boy Mahomes and Tannehill.
That could screw up two bets for us so you have your fun ones and those I think we can really make some money with.
Enjoy the UFC 246 fights Saturday night, and I hope you have canceled Sunday Funday with the Mrs. because these two games are very interesting.
“Honey, there are only a few games left…”
Will Aaron Rodgers pass the NFC torch to Jimmy G this week? Can Travis Henry rush for nearly two bills again? Will Patrick Mahomes take advantage of the absence of Tom Brady?
I’m looking forward to having these questions answered in full on Championship Sunday.