It’s playoff time for the NFL and what an exciting weekend of games we have in store! I love all four of the matchups! The narrative is thick for every contest.
The Buffalo Bills are making just their second playoff appearance since the year 2000. Believe it or not, that was 20 years or two decades ago. It really doesn’t feel like it to me but I’ll just stop there because I’m starting to feel like a dinosaur.
The defense is quite stout and no other team has been able to contain the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson as efficiently as the Bills.
We also have Kirk “Don’t call me Dirk because I choke in big games” Cousins leading a talented Minnesota Vikings squad into the vaunted Superdome to battle the 8 point home favorite New Orleans Saints.
The Vikings will have a chance if they can use their star running back Dalvin Cook to chew up the clock keeping the ball out of the hands of Drew Brees.
They will have to score touchdowns on their red zone attempts, though. The opposing Saints are just too dynamic and efficient at the skill positions to be consistently kept out of the end zone.
And what is all this “New England dynasty is done” talk? They have one of the best defenses in the league this year who was second in the NFL in takeaways behind the Steelers with 36.
That’s more than two a game for the English Lit majors out there. The Pats also have the best coach and quarterback in the history of the league. 12-4 as well…
No respect, I tell ya.
And, what happened to the Seahawks last week?! They have, in my opinion, the MVP of the league under center and the team gets a delay of game from inside the 1 yard line with only seconds remaining.
That was a major mistake and just as the vast majority of praise falls on the shoulders of quarterback Russell Wilson, he’s going to have to take a lot of the blame here.
I know he will be fired up for this week’s game against the playoffs’ most unlikely participant, the Philadelphia Eagles.
I’m personally looking forward to the battle of the birds more than any other game this weekend.
Today, I just want to provide you with some of the prop betting opportunities afforded to us by BetOnline.AG and make some educated predictions so that you can recover some of that santa spending.
If you’re thirsty for predictions on the winners of these games, though, please click here for our NFL picks section.
Now, let’s get to the prop betting odds and predictions for the NFL Wild Card Weekend.
Most Points Scored by any Team
Hmm… That’s not that many points.
The sportsbooks don’t seem to be sure either way. I think that’s why we are having to pay the (-120) juice. My first instinct is the over bet but for the most part, defense was king in 2019.
Taking a glimpse at the over/under point totals for each game, I did notice that they are all under 50. The largest point spread is 8 and that’s in the Minnesota/New Orleans game which has a 49.5 point total as of today.
Mid-discussion disclaimer: You can find here some of our favorites as well as most trusted online betting sites for the NFL.
Back to the action now.
The Vikings were 5th in the league this year defensively in points per game allowing just under 19 per contest. I know Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas are all amazing but I think 27-17 is more likely.
The Tennessee Titans and the Pats… I’m not seeing it, really, and neither is most of the betting world.
Tennessee allows less than 21 a game and the Pats are #1 in the league only giving up 14 points per game to their 16 opponents during the regular season.
The third down efficiency of the New England Patriot defense is incredible. 24%! This one has defensive stalemate written all over it.
I don’t see 34 points being reached by either the Bills or the Texans either. Houston has one of the worst defenses in the league but Buffalo has been one of the worst scoring offenses throughout the season.
This leaves just one opportunity for the over bet to hit, essentially.
These two did play once before this year and the score was 17-9. Go figure. Just like this weekend’s Wild Card matchup, the game will be held in Philly.
Gotta love the NFC Least, right? Seattle was an inch away from being the #1 seed for the NFC and now they are on the road in the first round.
The weather forecast calls for a clear day with upwards of 15 mph winds.
On paper, it’s actually the Philadelphia Eagles who have a better chance at the 34 points. Hey, they have won 4 straight games, albeit against the NFC Least’s Redskins, Cowboys, and Giants.
The Philly defense is banged up but the Hawks will be without their top two running backs.
This one will be ugly, for sure, but I don’t believe either team will reach the 34 point marker.
Biggest Point Differential in Any Game
Okay, what is going on here?
The largest points spread is 8 but betting odds of (-160) for one game to be a 15 or more point contest?
I did a similar pick for the Thanksgiving Day games and went with the over 13.5 I think it was and all the games ended up being fairly close.
Those odds were (-130) so I felt like a fool, especially since the value was on the under.
This one just seems like a trap, though.
New England vs Tennessee?
Philly and Seattle will play very closely.
Buffalo has an excellent pass defense and should be able to contain Deshaun Watson who will have not one but two hobbled wide receivers in Kenny Stills and Will Fuller.
If anyone gets blown out, I’m fairly certain it will be the Minnesota Vikings.
A 35-20 win for New Orleans would ruin this bet and the previous one for us but I like the value here with the +120 on the under.
Total Wild Card Teams That Win This Weekend
Well, let’s work backward on this one and eliminate the wild card teams we don’t think have much of a chance.
They enter this week having lost two straight at home and the ONLY team with a winning record that they were able to defeat was the Philadelphia Eagles who are barely there at 9-7.
Some would argue that the proverbial writing is beginning to cover the wall but I can’t pick Ryan Tannehill over Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and the 12-4 New England Patriots.
The Seahawks’ moneyline is (-130) against a banged-up Eagles squad and the Houston Texans are a surprising (-145) at home versus the Bills.
Buffalo has been an outstanding road team throughout the year at 6-2 so I could easily see the Bills winning this one. It’s just hard to go with Josh Allen over Deshaun Watson.
When you put it like that, I start to question it.
This is the playoffs and second-year guy with no postseason experience versus one of the most clutch quarterbacks in recent memory including the college game has me leaning slightly towards the Texans.
You can bet on the exact number of wild card teams who will win but I think the under is fairly safe here and clearly has the value at (+130).
Most Passing Yards for the Weekend
Okay, we have to do our best at making an educated guess here but this isn’t the smartest bet you’ll ever make.
There is one for rushing and receiving yards as well and the latter is like shooting craps.
I do have a couple of ideas for the rushing yards wager. I feel like I have a bead on how that will play out but receiving yards are normally accrued in larger chunks which is going to make that harder to predict.
Brees is the favorite here for a reason.
I’m pretty sure the Saints will have the lead for most of the game, though, so he may be outdone by someone like Cousins, Wentz, or Wilson.
I think Wentz and Wilson are going to have a good ol’ fashioned shootout in Philly but Captain Kirk will likely be playing from behind.
The Saints can chew up the clock as well as anyone in the NFC, though, so I think this one is between Wentz and Wilson.
On paper, Wentz is the guy. He has a cannon but not nearly the level of finesse and touch of Wilson.
The Seahawks have a terrible pass defense but the injuries to the secondary of Philly along with the deep threat of Wilson/Lockett have me picking Russ.
Most Rushing Yards this Weekend
Derrick Henry is looking like the pick here but I think New England will make Ryan Tannehill beat them.
The thing is, he just might!
I wouldn’t want to play the Tennessee Titans right now and even though the Pats are ranked first in defense this season, they are back at 14th in rush defense.
Stuffing the box on defense might not be too smart for the Pats as the Tennessee Titans are #1 in the NFL in yards per pass at an even 8.
They are last in pass attempts but you can’t beat the efficiency.
Murray and Kamara are going to split up their touches. Michel and Hyde are going up against very good run defenses.
Tannehill’s ability to lengthen the field and spread out defenses has had quite an impact on the numbers of Derrick Henry.
I do believe New England will be out to stop him but all of these running backs listed are going up against tough defenses or in the case of the Saints tandem, there are two of them.
I know you guys are as excited as I am for this weekend!
With the exception of the Saints Vikings game, I think each contest will be very competitive. Wentz and Wilson will have a classic quarterback battle of power versus finesse.
The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans are both good teams but the Bills are limited at quarterback and rely on a strong running game and defense.
The Texans, conversely, are a wreck on the defensive side of the ball and have a QB that can make any throw or run on the field.
Then there’s Tom Brady, Bill B, and the hated Patriots. Did I say hated? Sorry, just being honest.
The Cowboys are out of it so we all need someone to hate, naturally. I don’t mean that. Love overcomes all but how can anyone not from “Baaahstun” be a Patriots fan?
Anyways, their matchup with the Titans is very interesting as this Tennessee team has turned into an offensive powerhouse.
They will likely need every inch, though, against New England who allowed 14 points per 60 minutes on the season.
Prop bets are meant to be fun but they usually pay quite well.
Let’s try to win a couple of them and fatten up that January bankroll before the Super Bowl.